AZMike

Not to mention that Weaver is built for the longer haul than Sabathia.

As money as he is, how much longer can Sabathia carry all of that weight now that he'll be 33 in the 2013 season?

 

Weaver is still only 30, and stays in great shape.  

I can see him dominating like he has the past 2 seasons for another 4-5 seasons at least. 

According to this theory, Blanton = comeback* player of the year

*in the same sense that Fernando Rodney was comeback** player of the year in 2012.

**"comeback" = completely unprecedented career year 

 "Serge would have never been pulled over "for no reason",

 

You really think this never happens? If your answer is yes, you are incorrect.

 

 

Your taillight started... blinking ... when you took that turn back there

Wells would never waive his no trade clause. You guys are delusional.

He did once (although the Jays front office might've slipped him a bonus under the table to do so like they did with Reagins )

WPA is fun, but it has some significant issues. Number one being that a run in the 8th inning is not more valuable than a run in the 2nd inning. WPA does a good job of measuring how we should feel about performance but it ignores a lot of truly valuable things such as defense.

One thing neither of these stats fairly take into account (underrated by WAR, overrated by WPA) is that pitchers often pitch differently in high leverage situations.

In a bases-empty situation early in a game the pitcher is likely to throw more pitches in the zone or pitch to contact to try to get the batter on fewer overall pitches since the downside of them getting a solo HR in that spot is not that significant. OTOH in a one-run deficit game with two men on base, the pitcher's likely going to throw more pitches and tougher pitches in an effort to get a K.

Playing 3B for some other team for free.

MLB should have to supply insurance against the contracts for players who get injured participating in the WBC.

+1

 

Seems like a good time to make that move if the Yanks will bite.

Hopefully Wells will hit enough three run homers in meaningless spring games to trick them into doing it (even at a severe haircut) 

F'n Reagins. Should have signed that guy.

Considering we would've avoided the Wells fiasco, and the [future] Pujols fiasco, I agree completely. 

man Enright has been awful so far this spring.

And Jerome.

 

Again doesn't really mean anything, but I would certainly prefer them to not suck.

Based on a 2-inning sample size in early March Blanton looked better than either of those guys in his last outing. He threw almost all strikes and retired batters quickly (admittedly one of those strikes was a 425+ foot home run, but at least he hadn't walked two people before that like 2012 Santana...) 

Who do you guys see winning the AL East this year? While I'm usually hesitant to count out the Yankees, this year doesn't look good for them so far. 

Also the Weaver / Harrison pitcher WAR thing.

 

Harrison might have a higher WAR than Weaver but the stat is NOT SAYING that switching the two players would result in a net increase in wins for the Angels. WAR is handing out value to the pitchers that they can directly account for. Jered Weaver has excess value that is likely being attributed to Mike Trout and other Angels defenders as well as to Angels stadium. Swapping the two pitchers would result in Angels pitchers having higher pitcher WAR but Angels defenders receiving less dWAR.

 

This is an accounting issue.

The fact that Weaver's value is being disproportionately assigned to the defenders (and the defenders are arguably seeing their WAR increase) means that WAR by itself cannot be used as a one-stop-shop number to quantify that one player is a better overall player than another.

I personally prefer Win Probability Added (WPA), or context-netural win probability added (WPA/LI). These seem to agree with the "eyeball test" significantly better (particularly in my earlier example of of Weaver vs Kendrick).  I think stat is a much better starting point than WAR for fans who want to argue about who a team's MVP is.

Both figures are dependent on context and teammates etc. and both stats make arbitrary judgment calls when it comes to dividing up credit for plays, but in the case of win probability, the term "win" is actually appropriate. You can by definition sum up the win probability of all the players on the team and end up with the team's overall winning record. I agree with others who said that there might be less confusion if WAR were named something that didn't include the word "wins".

Okay, I guess this ends this discussion.

 

Maybe Hamilton should learn to switch hit; oh forget it, won't make a difference.....

Stupid idea. We need more left handed hitters on this team. We should have Pujols try to pick up hitting from the left instead.

Imagine where the Angels would have been if we had Darvish instead of Weaver CJ WIlson last year.  

That said, Weaver's only a 3 win player. Equivalent to Kendrick, and slightly less than half as valuable as Aybar. Clearly he sucks.

Anyone who can't appreciate WAR doesn't truly understand the Game.

Jered Weaver = Howie Kendrick according to fWAR

We must tie!!!

If we get a ~7 run buffer, there's a chance

Was Hanson scratched? Angels website has Brandon Hynick starting.

Scott Boras is salivating at the thought of a bidding war between the Angels and the Rangers for Kyle Lohse.

If Howie grounds into a DP with Trout on first, I might move a little closer to the edge.

This is then followed by a Pujols double. Pujols is thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple.

Chuck - it always bugs me when people say something along the lines of "If you take out x then..." because x still counts.  I understand the point, that the one performance seems to have a disproportional effect on Vargas' stats, but it still counts. That said, I'm also optimistic he'll be good this year.  I think he'll be the (sorta) surprise player and will be right up there with CJ.

I agree but it's not as bad as the "if you throw out April the Angels were the best team ever!" nonsense, as the whole point of the season is to win games. Margin of victory doesn't matter as much though. Giving up loads of runs in one game that's already going to probalby be a blowout loss is not as bad as consistently giving up several (but not boatloads) of runs and losing multiple games, even though stats like ERA, WHIP etc. would be the same in those two scenarios.

This was demonstrated by the Orioles who lost lots of blowouts and won lots of one-run games, they actually had a good winning record with a near-zero run differential. 

...and you'll have to excuse me for not getting slightly concerned when not a single one of our projected everyday position players has more than 15 ABs and none of our projected starters has more than 2 IP.

 

Now we may go on to have a rough year as anything is possible, but to be remotely concerned at this point based on what has happened is merely letting the ghosts of the past get inside your head. That's silly. Use your heads.

One injury to a starting pitcher and this team is in serious trouble. That's bad.

Sign him and move Petey to left and Trout to right. Then see what his agent says.

I have to agree considering the other defensive options on the team:

I am always amused by the layperson that thinks they can judge the quality of instruction given by a major league coach.

Best evidence of Butcher's instruction quality is Fernando Rodney, who comlained of Butcher attempting to change his pitching mechanics as the cause of his poor performance. Then he went to Tampa Bay, coaches found him a new position on the rubber, and he pitched arguably the best season ever for a reliever.

I completely expect a similar transformation from Walden.  

I thought all this BS would stop after we won a game?

our best lineup thrown out there to date, against a Dodgers split squad.

Anybody know anymore about this? I heard it for the first time today on the radio. All I heard is there will be a Trout cheering section similar to Hernandez's King's Court. Each person gets a t-shirt and 'fish sticks' to cheer with. Anybody know more about it? Where it is in the stadium? Left field, by the bullpen? Also, are season seats sold in the section? Just curious and didn't see any other posts about it.

Interesting idea. The King's Court is pretty good marketing idea. I've actually quite a few Mariner's fans with those shirts show up at Angel Stadium on days where Felix starts. 

Hope they do well.  I think Joe will benefit from that stadium.  And even though they moved the fences in, looks like it's not much of a change except for the Left Centerfield area.  Hardly going to make that place a hitters park.  

Trout would've hit for the cycle last season had the new fences been in effect

They gave his CF spot to Wells today.

 

Obviously the Angels are the more bitter party...

CF is obviously above Trout's paygrade

no problem.

kinda sucks...next televised isnt until wednesday. good news its against italy so that should be kinda fun to watch

we better bring in Albert for that one.

from MLB.com:

Mariners beat Rangers; Morales 2 run homer

Saunders Encouraged by strong start to spring

Vargas pitches for the Angels tomorrow.