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  1. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    Out of all of the positions of need the Angels might punt on this off-season, catcher seems the most likely out of the group.
    This is not because the Angels would not like to place the best catcher they can find in the position but rather more a resource allocation issue, due to the higher payroll priority need in the rotation.
    Realistically, catchers are, at most, in a 70%/30% split, typically leaning more toward 60%/40%, nominally in a platoon where one backstop picks up more at-bat's against RHP. There are a handful of backstops like Yasmani Grandal or Salvador Perez, for example, that play a lion's share of the games but, for most teams, the nominal split is standard. So investing in a guy that only plays about half the games is generally less appealing to a GM and Eppler is well aware of this, as it is not dissimilar to his approach for building the bullpen (investing to much in part-time and/or volatile players).
    For Billy it is typically more efficient to find defensive-minded catchers with good platoon splits to place into a backstop corps, because defense, particularly at the up-the-middle positions (C, SS, 2B, and CF), has always been a critical objective for him. Many casual fans of baseball do not fully understand how critical a good defensive catcher is and their impact on every pitch of the game (framing, relationships with the pitchers, umpire rapport, and other intangibles) so acquiring good backstops is important.
    The Angels current group of catchers all have warts of some sort. Stassi will probably not start the season but does combine excellent defense (see chart below) with weak overall offense, particularly against LHP. Kevan Smith, who was just non-tendered by the Angels, crushed LHP but was not the best overall defender in the world, which is why he is now off the roster. Finally, Anthony Bemboom, also a defensive-minded receiver, can hit decently against RHP but he, too, is probably a backup option only (he has an option remaining, however).
    So what does Eppler do here? If resources are tight in combination with the real possibility that Stassi may not be able to start the 2020 season, due to his injury, how does Billy proceed? The team is in a precarious position at the moment in a catching market that, on the surface, appears to be drying up. On top of all of that, our team depth at the catching position is also very light and our only top-level prospect, Jack Kruger, is currently exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.
    To help shed further light on this issue let us take a look at the top defensive catchers, based on FanGraphs 'Def' score, broken out on a rate basis per game (Def/G) over the last three seasons with a minimum of 30 Games (G) played, to see which backstops have consistently performed well behind the dish:
    2017-2019 FanGraphs Top 35 Catchers Def/G with Minimum 30 G's Played

    As you can see Stassi has ranked quite high in Def/G over the last three seasons, which explains why Eppler made the trade for him. It seems likely that the Angels will monitor Max's surgery and recovery and if they feel comfortable they will retain him for the 2020 season (and may have to, now that Grandal and Zunino have signed with other teams).
    Looking deeper at the list above, for possible free agent signings and trade targets, you can see unlikely acquisitions like Hedges, Perez, and Vazquez who are all locked in with their respective teams in all probability.
    At the top of the list is Flowers who had an option year for 2020, worth $6M, that the Braves actually declined and paid his $2M buyout but then turned around and re-signed him to a $4M contract, thus reducing his AAV for 2020 down to $4M (an interesting technicality). At first glance this re-signing points to Flowers playing in Atlanta next year but the Braves just signed Travis d'Arnaud to a 2-year deal, probably as their primary catcher, so Tyler could prove to be expendable in trade which would probably pique Eppler's interest if true.
    Beyond those names our old friend Maldonado is a free agent. Willson Contreras could also be a target for the Angels but Eppler values defense so much, he seems a less likely acquisition. Other names like Luke Maile, Danny Jensen, Reese McGuire, Austin Barnes, Jacob Stallings, Jason Castro, John Ryan Murphy, and another familiar face, Rene Rivera, might be options too.
    Finally, if Billy wants to flirt with inexperience behind the plate, he could target near MLB-ready prospects such as Keibert Ruiz (as suggested by Angelswin.com member InsidePitch) or maybe Andrew Knizner, for example. This route seems really risky in such an important season for Eppler, however.
    Ultimately, the front office needs to add some depth here. This will require a modicum of payroll space, probably on the order of $1M-$10M give or take, dependent upon the target(s).
    Likely Outcome: Angels will sign a defense-first backstop to pair with Max Stassi such as Jason Castro or Martin Maldonado. Because defense is so important Max will probably pick up at least 50% (or more) of the starts with the primary/backup (Stassi could wind up as either) getting the rest. Stassi hits RHP better than LHP which is not saying a lot because he is poor against both sides of the mound.
    Having a platoon mate like those mentioned in this article will at least improve offense to a degree while still maintaining high quality defense or at least a semblance of it behind the plate. There is an outside possibility that Eppler signs two of the above and releases Stassi but Max feels more like a short-term (1-3 years) mainstay on the roster because of his top-notch defensive work behind the dish.
    Author's Choice: If Eppler does go low-level or punt, signing Jason Castro (good vs. RHP)  or even simply picking up a recent non-tender like John Ryan Murphy or Luke Maile would be sufficient. Additionally, acquiring one or more Minor League catchers with options that are MLB-ready would be useful from a payroll perspective. Depth can also be improved by Minor League signings of any residual catchers left without a home on the open market.
    However I, personally, would like to see the Angels improve behind the dish by acquiring a high-quality defensive receiver with shorter years of control (reduces acquisition price) like Tyler Flowers (less likely) or Luke Maile (more likely). The former may not actually be available while the latter was recently non-tendered by the Blue Jays, making him a very attainable solution.
    Beyond those two I personally like Danny Jensen and Reese McGuire, both still on the Blue Jays 40-man roster. Supposedly the Blue Jays are listening to offers on both and it feels like McGuire would be the best fit in our lineup and for our payroll situation. Tucker Barnhart of the Reds would also be a nice target but he is not quite as good defensively as Reese, so he is a lesser choice.
    So based on this discussion either of the following two trades would make some degree of sense:
    Angels send RP Hansel Robles to the Braves in exchange for C Tyler Flowers
    Why?
    The Braves have built up their bullpen but adding another experienced reliever with two years of arbitration control (2020 and 2021) with a projected $4M 2020 salary is a reasonable exchange, particularly since it is a nearly equitable swap for Tyler's $4M salary and one year of contractual control. The d'Arnaud signing potentially gives Atlanta the freedom to move Flowers as well (less likely but possible).
    For the Angels this is a payroll neutral trade that gives them one of the best defensive catchers in baseball right now, who can also hit, for one year until they figure out a better solution long-term behind the dish (or extend Flowers, possibly if acquired).
    Angels send SP Jaime Barria and OF Orlando Martinez to the Blue Jays in exchange for C Reese McGuire
    Why?
    The Blue Jays are in need of starting pitching (in addition to OF and bullpen help) and the addition of Barria gives them a back-end starter with five years of team control. Jaime is still relatively young (23) and has upside. Also they get an OF prospect in Martinez that can potentially be part of a future Blue Jays squad 2-4 years down the road.
    In return the Angels get a long-term backstop option in McGuire who grades out well defensively and has hit well in a limited sample size in 2019. Reese can partner with Stassi to form a solid defensive tandem behind the dish for at least the next couple of years or more, thus settling our backstop situation for the foreseeable future.
    Conclusion: The Angels have more options to trade for, rather than sign, a defensive-oriented backstop and that is the slightly more likely route Eppler will take since he favors up-the-middle defense so much (actually good defense at every position period) and can find that more readily by swapping players and prospects with another team. Particularly catchers like Maile or McGuire, who still have an option left, are probably more appealing to Billy and the front office.
    Eppler could make a surprise left-turn and pursue an offensive-minded bat like Contreras, Chirinos, Cervelli, Ramos, or Astudillo but that seems less probable, barring a good value signing or ability to pick one of them up with an advantageous trade package.
    Based on published stories and trade rumors the catching market seems to have a lot of fluidity and moving parts to it where some teams want to move an extra catcher so it would not be surprising to see one team acquire a backstop and then move one of their current catchers to the Angels. So figuring out the field of Eppler's probable targets feels more difficult to predict this year but if you follow the trail of evidence, it points to strong defense as the primary suspect, thus the list above.
    In the end, as Billy said recently, the Angels could cross their fingers and simply roll with Stassi and Bemboom so there may be little, if any, movement behind the dish this off-season, but gut instinct, and the aggressive posture toward the 2020 season, begs otherwise.
  2. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    So I almost didn't write the series this year.
    A lot of things happened, one of which the company I worked for, Vector-Launch, unfortunately shut down in mid-August due to the loss of our primary financial backer, Sequoia. This was a real loss to me because that was the best damn job I ever had and likely will ever have the remainder of my career.
    It is rare that you find a position where you enjoy the work so much that you don't even feel like it is work, you have a supervisor that respects and mentors you, and you have fantastic relationships with virtually all of your coworkers to the point that they become family and you even hang out with them outside of work. Vector was all of that and it is a damn shame that it had to go.
    There are parallels to that situation with the 2019 Angels. The Halos, at the start of the season seemed locked in. Our new manager, Brad Ausmus, was at the helm and seemed to have a good grasp of how to manage the team and appeared to have the respect of the players. Most importantly the team seemed to gel well and the clubhouse atmosphere seemed loose and fun. However, as we are all aware, injuries, ineffectiveness, and a lack of leadership at the top ravaged the 2019 Angels team.
    Players like Matt Harvey and Cody Allen, larger ticket players Eppler signed on one-year deals in the off-season, failed to produce and were eventually cut. The Angels tragically lost Tyler Skaggs mid-season to a deadly concoction of opioids and alcohol. Justin Upton, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Rengifo, and Tommy La Stella all hit the Injury List (IL) at various points in the season creating a discontinuity in the field and lineup that was reflected in the Angels very poor win-loss record at the end of the year. These losses certainly added up to a recipe for disaster in Anaheim that seems, on the surface, difficult to overcome in 2020 and proved fatal to Brad Ausmus' tenure. Like Vector-Launch, they had to close it down.
    So, once again, it will be up to Billy Eppler in what could be his last year as General Manager, and the front office staff to set a path for success this off-season if the Angels will have a real chance at post-season play.
    One very bright point is the signing of future Hall of Fame candidate Mike Trout to a career-long extension at the beginning of the 2019 season. The Angels now have the premier player in baseball locked up and can rest easy knowing that he is the centerpiece to build the remainder of the team around as they look to contend in 2020 and beyond.
    Some of these pieces are already here. Despite Justin Upton's poor offensive performance in 2019, he is still signed for three more seasons making him a likely complimentary piece in left field for next year. Andrelton Simmons will be entering his final year of control and, barring a trade, will man shortstop again in 2020 with the possibility of an extension contract in his future. Kole Calhoun turned out to be a luxury the Angels couldn't afford in an off-season where they need a lot of starting pitching but fortunately, the Angels have Brian Goodwin to fill their right field need to start the season.
    Other complimentary players like Zack Cozart (if healthy), David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss, Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh, and Tommy La Stella should help fill one or more holes in the infield not called shortstop. Catcher may turn out to be a patchwork again manned by some combination of Max Stassi (who probably won't be ready to start the season), Anthony Bemboom, Kevan Smith, and perhaps one or more other, yet-to-be-acquired, backstops.
    Shohei Ohtani should be ready to pitch again, along with Andrew Heaney, giving the Angels a decent base to create a rotation with the likes of Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Dillon Peters, and possibly others like Felix Pena filling up the back-end of the starting five. However, it should be clearly noted that the free agent starting pitching market has some very attractive players that the Angels will almost certainly target to create a strong rotation for 2020.
    Our relief corps will probably contain names like Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles, Noe Ramirez, Cam Bedrosian, Luke Bard, Justin Anderson, Keynan Middleton, Jake Jewell, and Taylor Cole among potential others. In fact this group may be enough to rely upon for the 2020 season, making it one potential area that the Angels need not worry about this off-season in terms of expending resources.
    The rebuilding process in the Angels Minor League system has actually been underway for some time now. Eppler has been steadily building it up and there are some notable names that have joined or are on the verge of joining Trout in Anaheim.
    Potential stars like Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, along with contributing pieces like Luis Madero are making strides to join the big league club in 2020 or after. Adell in particular appears to be the closest to the Majors and is likely, based on Calhoun's option being declined, a call-up in the May/June time frame. Other potential contributors like Luis Pena (bullpen), Jahmai Jones (2B/OF), and Chris Rodriguez could accelerate fast if they have a productive start in 2020.
    The unexpected replacement of Ausmus with Joe Maddon and Moreno's recent comments that there will be an increase in payroll this off-season clearly points to a sea change and acceleration to push the Angels into a window of contention that many fans have been awaiting for a long time.
    Based on the groundwork laid to date, owner comments, and a largely new, but experienced, coaching staff, it seems highly probable that there will be at least one or more significant free agent signings and/or complimentary trades to help position the Angels to fight for a playoff spot in 2020. The Astros and A's still pose a significant threat in the Division but an improved Angels squad will make for a much more interesting race in the A.L. West.
    In terms of team needs, clearly the Angels need to add at least one top-of-the-rotation starter and likely an additional mid-tier type to create solid depth. Adding a high-quality defensive catcher, to compliment one of Stassi (likely), Smith (maybe), or Bemboom (unlikely), would be a nice add to receive all of those pitches from the revamped rotation. The infield will need to be reinforced, likely at the corners with third base a long-term strategic concern for Eppler. Right field will be open to competition with Jo Adell in the mix (and the future of the position) but likely only after the Angels retain the extra year of team control on him (thus the projected May/June call-up). Adding another reliever or two to the mix, even if they are waiver claims or Rule 5 picks, will add depth.
    The question will ultimately be how high will Moreno let Eppler spend? Is it a modest increase or something much more significant that would take us into Luxury Tax territory for the next two years? Will a poor free agent market in the 2020-2021 off-season drive spending now? What moves can be made in free agency and trade to strengthen the team? Can the team supplement from the Minors in key areas throughout the season to create the missing depth that recent Angels squads have lacked?
    All that and more in what is sure to be an active Angels off-season in the subsequent installments of the 2020 Angelswin.com Primer Series!
  3. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    As the Angels enter the 2019-2020 off-season, Billy Eppler is faced with the daunting task of taking Moreno's proposed increase in team payroll and creating a contending club out of the available resource pool. Currently, the Angels 40-man roster stands at 40 players as of November 28th, 2019.
    In order to begin the discussion about available finances, the author has examined the Angels 40-man roster and assuming the Angels retain the current set of 40 players and use MLBTradeRumors.com's estimated arbitration salaries, 2020 Club Payroll will be approximately $162M and Actual Club Payroll (Average Annual Value (AAV) payroll) will be approximately $151M as seen below:

    A couple of notes regarding the table above:
    Injured List $$ indicates a nominal number for MLB players that spend time on the Injured List and is an educated guess based on information provided by the Orange County Register's Jeff Fletcher. Payouts refers to any and all money expended on players no longer on the 40-man roster. In this case the $1M number was Kole Calhoun's option year buyout. Subtract Non-Roster is simply the 14 players not on the 26-man roster making League-minimum salaries that do not count toward the total payroll numbers. In this case 14 x $600K = $8.4M Benefits refers to Player Benefit Costs and is an educated guess (also based on information provided by Jeff Fletcher) on how much every team pays toward that fund. Below is the relevant excerpt of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that shows how it is applied to the payroll calculation:
    To be clear this estimate is exactly that, an educated guess. The only difference between '2020 Club Payroll' and 'Actual Club Payroll' is that in the latter you are accounting for the multi-year guaranteed contracts (average annual value of them) and how close that places the team to the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold for that season (in this case $208M for 2020).
    So Eppler starts the season with approximately $147M in 2020 Club Payroll and $136M in Actual Club Payroll (AAV) and when you adjust for Player Benefits, non-roster players, Injury List (IL) payout estimates and Calhoun's $1M option buyout, the Angels start the season at $162M (2020 Club Payroll) and $151M (Actual Club Payroll).
    This means that, based on Moreno's own words about raising 2020 Club Payroll, the team probably has at least $25M+ to spend in free agency and trade and likely that number is closer $30M-$40, if not more. Fortunately, because of this, the Halos have more options this off-season in terms of money and resources (both MLB-ready players, farm prospects, and International Signing money) to address their needs and create better depth across the roster.
    If the Angels really are courting Gerrit Cole (and they should be), he will likely get the Angels close to their spending limit all by himself on a back loaded contract. In order to make other moves, Eppler will have to get creative in the trade market as well as executing savvy low-level free agent signings to fill in the rest of the roster. This may require Moreno to get awfully close to, or even exceed, the Luxury Tax threshold of $208M, although the team will likely stay under that number, barring a truly unexpected all-in over the next two seasons (a precise window they can escape by the way once Pujols contract expires after 2021).
    Expectations are high for Eppler to create a winner in his current, last year as General Manager so Angelswin.com members and fans should expect at least one large free agent signing with perhaps 1-3 lower-level pickups. In addition to that it will not be surprising to see 1-3 trades executed to bring in additional pitching and positional needs.
    All of this will be covered further as we dive deeper into the 2020 Angelswin.com Primer Series!
  4. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    For the Angels starting rotation, 2019 was not a kind year.
    Unfortunately, the Halos starters were last out of all 30 MLB teams in total Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with a measly 3.3 WAR. Other peripheral indicators support the poor performance. For reference, the Nationals led all of baseball with a total 21.4 WAR.
    So what do the Angels do to fix this situation?
    For reference, the table below shows a leader board of qualified starters, sorted by Wins Above Replacement on a per G (WAR/G) basis, over the last three seasons:

    If Moreno is serious about increasing payroll and making this team more competitive, as the hiring of Joe Maddon suggests and by his very own words, the Angels will need to invest a majority of their off-season payroll into starting pitching.
    It is the general consensus of the baseball community that the Angels will be in, heavily, on free agent ace Gerrit Cole or possibly Stephen Strasburg. Not only is Gerrit the agreed-upon available top starter, he throws 95+ mph heat, has an arsenal of wicked off-speed pitches, and took his team deep into the post-season this year. Strasburg helped carry his Nationals to a World Championship over Cole's Astros. Both are high-caliber options.
    Cole will cost a lot of money, likely something on the order of 30M+ average annual value (AAV) and $230M+ in total salary commitment over, probably, a 7-8 year deal. Strasburg will probably require a 5-6 year, $150M-$180M ($30M AAV) deal to secure his services. Either of these outlays will result in the Angels exceeding last years starting payroll number, thus the clear need for Arte to open the wallet if the team truly wants to contend in 2020.
    In the Finances article of the Primer Series we argued for a payroll increase to make significant improvements. The current starting point is approximately $162M for 2020 Club Payroll and $151M in Actual Club Payroll (AAV) and, in order to make big moves with Simmons and Cozart still on the books, Moreno will be forced to approach or, more remotely, exceed the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold barring an unexpected trade of Andrelton or Zack.
    Thus, if the club can acquire one or more game-changing stars (and it should be stressed that Arte would only exceed the CBT threshold for a high-end player), the author believes Moreno could possibly approach or exceed the CBT threshold of $208M and potentially go as high as the 1st Surcharge threshold of $228M, where the penalty is minimal (20% tax on the difference between AAV and the threshold of $208M, so no more than a $4M surcharge tax fee for 2020). Again, to reemphasize, this would only happen if Arte allows it and the player or players in question are first-rate acquisitions, so this is a low probability outcome that should be discussed but not expected.
    As a large market team the Angels have not significantly played in the payroll clouds (Luxury Tax) before, so this would be a complete break from previous seasons despite the fact that doing so now, in the new era of Mike Trout, could pay dividends across the board, particularly with the available slate of quality free agents this year and a complete dearth of them in next years market.
    In the end, though, Moreno has consistently authorized high payrolls but, rather than believing in the dream scenario, Angels fans should temper their expectations that the Opening Day payroll will exceed $208M and in all probability will be no more than $190M-$195M, give or take. It is the latter we will focus more on in this article and the remainder of the Primer Series.
    So, as MLBTradeRumors.com discussed, the Angels are likely to acquire a free agent front-of-the-rotation starter such as the aforementioned Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. For the purposes of this article, the author is going to assume that the Angels acquire one of them at $35M or $30M Average Annual Value (AAV) for Cole and Strasburg, respectively. Assuming a back-loaded contract ($20M-$25M in 2020), this puts the Angels 2020 Club Payroll and Actual Club Payroll (AAV) at $182M-$187M and $181M-$186M AAV respectively, without any other transactions taking place to start 2020.
    Grabbing a top-shelf starter to compliment Ohtani and lead this rotation is a must-have in the author's opinion. A 1-2 punch at the top will help win more games and increase overall team confidence that, on any given start, the Top 2 starters will get the job done.
    Based on previous seasons, the Angels would be really smart to create solid depth here. Bringing in 2-3 starters from free agency and/or trade will allow Eppler and Maddon to build not only a strong rotation but also a very deep pitching bench. Depth has been a crippling issue over the last handful of years and it is high time the Angels address it directly with the application of a payroll increase and/or creative trades to add more at the top and in the middle of the rotation and supplement and perhaps even trade (no more than 1-2 starters) off of the back-end supply they currently have.
    Andrew Heaney, coming off a sterling peripherals season (28.9% K% rate, which is approaching elite-level), will make a fine #3 type behind a Top 2 set-up. Adding another free agent or trade acquisition such as Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jon Gray, Dylan Bundy, or Robbie Ray, would create a very competitive Top 4 and the Angels could easily round out that starting five with an in-house candidate such as Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, or Patrick Sandoval for example.
    Rumors have placed Wheeler's projected salary at 5 years, $100M ($20M AAV). This seems high because when you look at a recent comparable, Nathan Eovaldi, Zack is a year older and enters his free agent year with a 3.96 ERA versus Nathan's walk-year where he had a more pristine 3.33 ERA and signed a 4-year, $68M ($17M AAV) contract. ERA certainly isn't an insightful tool but results matter and Wheeler's fatigue near the end of the season may add a touch of doubt to his market.
    However, in terms of velocity, Wheeler throws about as hard as Cole and Nathan and is only about one year older, albeit with his Tommy John Surgery (2015) in the rear-view mirror. Gerrit is likely to pull in a 7-year deal, so would teams be willing to throw in a 6th year for Zack to bring the offer to nine figures? Seems really unlikely but there is a broad market for his services.
    All that being said, Eovaldi may have taken a slight discount to go to the Red Sox, and this market appears to be highly competitive, but it appears that Wheeler will get that fifth, or maybe even sixth, year and climb to $100M or more. The author expects Zack to pull in a 5-year deal worth anywhere from $90M-$100M ($18M-$20M AAV) which may, if Arte spends above the tax threshold, be a plausible acquisition behind Cole/Strasburg. If a sixth year is attached, it could possibly inch over $100M (think 6 years, $102M, $17M AAV for example).
    Realistically, the other mid-tier free agent starters like Bumgarner, Ryu, and Hamels will probably command contracts with an AAV range of $15M-$18M per year, give or take. Including Wheeler, all four of them may be priced out of the Angels budget simply because a Cole or Strasburg acquisition automatically puts the Angels, as mentioned above, in the $181M-$187M range. Adding one of the above, would vault next year's payroll into the $195M-$210M realm and Moreno may not be willing to stomach the ticket price.
    It may be more practical for the Angels to snag one of Cole or Strasburg and then trade for a lower-salaried front or mid-tier starter and then shop in the lower-end of free agency or trade for a third back-end piece.
    If the Angels go this route, available trade targets might include names like Jon Gray, Jake Odorizzi (in trade, now that he accepted the Qualifying Offer, although this is unlikely), Dylan Bundy, Jose Quintana, Danny Duffy, Jose Urena, Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, Jakob Junis, Robbie Ray, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Archer, and Joe Musgrove, among many others.
    On the free agency side, names like Homer Bailey (93 mph FB), Andrew Cashner (94 mph FB), Rich Hill (Approximate 21% K%-BB% rate over last three years on limited innings pitched each of those seasons), Dallas Keuchel (Career 58.9% GB% rate), Matt Moore (touched 94 mph in 10 IP before knee surgery cut his 2019 season short), Martin Perez (50% GB% rate and 94 mph FB), Michael Pineda (18.7% K%-BB% rate but serving Performance-Enhancing Drug Suspension to start the 2020 season), Tanner Roark (14.8% K%-BB% rate), Michael Wacha (93 mph FB), Alex Wood (Career 49% GB% rate), Gabriel Ynoa (93.5 mph FB), and/or Brett Anderson (56.8% GB% rate) might have some level of appeal, particularly in terms of salary fit.
    So, as an example, say the Angels sign one of Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg and then trade for a lower-salaried, controllable starter like Jon Gray or Dylan Bundy (each will make approximately $5.5M-$6M in arbitration for 2020) and then sign someone like Homer Bailey, Matt Moore, Rich Hill, or Alex Wood in the $5M-$10M range on a one to three year deal. This would push 2020 Club Payroll and Actual Club Payroll up toward the $200M mark which is high but still below the CBT threshold of $208M.
    The Angels would still have room for one or two low-level moves (such as an inexpensive catcher for example) but this would allow the team to spend significantly (as Moreno indicated was possible) while still sliding under the Luxury Tax at least up until the Trade Deadline where more information will be available to determine if the Angels should go further in improving the 2020 squad for a playoff push (which may then result in an overage over the CBT threshold).
    Rebuilding the rotation this off-season, by acquiring an ace, will set the stage for a more stable starting five, along with corresponding quality depth, for a long time to come. Strategically it will allow the Halos to enter a new window of contention immediately.
    Prioritizing starting pitcher additions for 2020 and beyond is the greatest need Eppler must address and, in fact, may be the only area he seriously deals with based on how far Moreno extends the payroll leash.
    Likely Outcome: Angels will sign one of Cole or Strasburg and then trade for a mid-tier type such as Gray, Bundy, Ray, or Boyd. From there they may sign a third starter such as Moore, Pineda, or Bailey but that will be dependent on payroll space.
    If three starters are acquired, this will allow the Angels to trade off one, or maybe two, of their back-end starters in trade with the likely candidates being Barria, Sandoval, or Suarez. The remainder of those candidates, not traded, would line up with the rest (Canning, Madero, Peters, et. al.) as quality rotation depth in the Minors and that depth does not even consider high Minor League players not on the 40-man roster like Chris Rodriguez, for instance.
    Hypothetically, if the Angels miss out on one of the Big 2, they can go to the backup plan of signing two of the remaining Tier 2 starters such as Wheeler, Bumgarner, Hamels, or Ryu and still trade for a mid-tier type as mentioned above. That won't be quite as strong but it will still improve the rotation considerably.
    Author's Choice: Gerrit Cole is a must have signing from my perspective. Nothing is promised in the off-season but Cole strikes me as a similar comparable to Scherzer and speculatively it feels like Gerrit will provide a lot of value over his next contract. Additionally, if Moreno extends the payroll leash, signing Zack Wheeler would be a huge plus, too.
    Beyond that, trading for one of Jon Gray, Matt Boyd and Robbie Ray would be a solid acquisition. Signing Matt Moore has some dangers but his velocity was great before his injury so that is a gamble I would like to see the Angels take but Pineda, Hill, or Bailey (in that order) would be perfectly fine outcomes as a third pickup, if wanted and/or needed.
    Assuming the Angels acquire three starters as speculated at, above, I would like to see a trade executed involving one (or possibly two) of Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, or Patrick Sandoval (in that order, probably) as shown in the two independent examples below:
    Angels send MIF Zack Cozart, SP Jaime Barria, 3B/1B Matt Thaiss, 2B/OF Jahmai Jones, OF Orlando Martinez, and OF D'Shawn Knowles to the Orioles in exchange for 1B/COF Trey Mancini and LHR Tanner Scott
    Why?
    The Orioles are in a full rebuild and need to hoard prospects and players with multiple years of team control. By taking on all of Cozart's 2020 salary they get not only the veteran shortstop they are looking for, they also obtain a young starting pitcher in Barria, to add to their rotation with 5 years of team control. In addition they get Thaiss who can play the infield corners, a high quality prospect in Jones, and two upside OF prospects in Knowles and Martinez. Buying prospects through a salary dump is rare, but not unprecedented, as seen here and here.
    For the Angels, in this particular season with the situation our payroll is in, the ability to shave Zack's salary, based on his negative surplus value, would be a huge help in navigating this off-season, if Eppler can manage it. Additionally, a move like this, would give the Halos a tested, and possible breakout, bat in Mancini (his 2019 peripherals point to significant improvement) who can play first base and the corner outfield positions in a pinch for at least 2020 and possibly the succeeding two seasons based on how high his arbitration cost rises. Acquiring Trey lowers total team production risk, by allowing Walsh to develop further (and act as quality depth at 1B) in the Minors, while adding another power option to the lineup behind Trout. Finally it would also give the Angels five controllable seasons of a powerful lefty bullpen arm in Scott who would improve the bullpen's potential to close out games in the later innings of a game.
    Angels trade LHP Jose Suarez, OF Trent Deveaux, and RHP Cooper Criswell in exchange for LF/1B Kyle Schwarber
    Why?
    The Cubs reportedly need to trim payroll and Schwarber represents a potential $8M savings that can be replaced internally by Bryant or Happ for example. Certainly Chicago would miss his bat in the lineup but by all accounts cutting dollars is important for them this off-season. It allows the Cubs to bring in one Major League ready young, controllable left-handed starter, a prospect outfielder with upside and another right-handed pitching prospect, all while shaving the aforementioned salary and giving up the final two years of arbitration control over Kyle.
    For the Angels it would bring in a left-handed power bat (more so versus RHP) they can place at 1B and serve as a depth option for Upton in LF. Assuming Schwarber does well they could retain him for one more season in 2021 or potentially extend him if that is Eppler's desire.
    Conclusion: The Angels have no choice but to take two routes here in the author's opinion -
    Sign or trade for two starters, one of which is an ace-level pitcher like Cole and Strasburg, with the other a mid-tier type like Gray, Ray, or Boyd, or Sign or trade for three starters, two of which are upper (like Cole or Strasburg) or mid-tier (like Wheeler, Archer, Bumgarner, Gray, Ray, or Ryu) types and one additional mid-tier or lower-tier guy. In the first scenario the Halos can get by with a rotation of, for example, Strasburg, Ohtani, Heaney, Boyd, and Canning. The second scenario might be a rotation of Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney, Ray, and Pineda, which isn't as strong at the former but is still a greatly improved starting five. Both options would improve bench depth.
    As fans we work with really imperfect information regarding the free agent and trade markets. If Eppler receives real interest in some of his back-end starters (Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, et. al.) the Angels would probably best be served by acquiring three starters and then trading one off for other areas of need, otherwise two rotation pieces, one an ace, is the most likely path. The former, spending more for three starters, will allow the Angels to more effectively open additional doors to address other concerns and will build natural depth all around the diamond (through the aforementioned trades).
    Again everything will rest on how much of the proverbial yacht fuel Moreno is willing to sacrifice in pursuit of these targets. If he does not commit to significant spending, Arte may find himself setting sail on the 2020 season rather than pulling into the playoffs port for the first time in a long while. If the rumors of Texas' interest in Anthony Rendon are true, the A.L. West is about to get really competitive across the board, so the Angels need to position themselves as a contender in the Division by taking an aggressive posture now.
    This off-season all eyes are on the moves Eppler makes for the starting rotation, as it is the crux of our success in 2020.
  5. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    This series will attempt to identify other potential front-line starters that the Angels can possibly trade for and we will continue the series looking at the Cincinnati Reds, SP Tyler Mahle.
    Facts
    Contract Status - 2020 will be the last season of pre-arbitration control for Tyler. After that he has the three standard years of arbitration control, for a total of four years of team control before hitting free agency.
    Repertoire (2019) - Four-Seam Fastball (56.7%, 93.6 mph), Curve Ball (22.6%, 80.6 mph), Split-Finger Fastball (13.5%, 87.4 mph) and Cut Fastball (6.6%, 90.2 mph)
    Statcast Information - Mahle has a below average spin rate on his four-seam fastball. However, his curve ball has above average spin (2,595 rpm). Exit velocity, across all of his pitches, has averaged 88.3 mph to-date in his Major League career. Since 2017, his K% has risen steadily from 15.2% in that year to 23.2% in 2019 with a corresponding drop in BB% from 12% in 2017 to 6.1% last season, resulting in a solid 17.1% K-BB% for 2019. Below is a Statcast graphic of his pitch type and frequency use, including his pitch grouping:

    Also here is his 2019 Statcast Plinko graphic showing how often he uses his pitches in various pitch counts:

    As you can see he generally starts hitters off with a four-seam fastball or, to a lesser extent, curve ball. Unless he gets behind he generally tries to randomize his pitch repertoire after that, only going to the four-seam when desired or he really needs a strike.
    Keep this graphic in mind as we discuss Tyler's repertoire further in this article.
    Injury History Risk - Low (Right shoulder tenderness and hamstring strain)
    Three-Year History -

    It should be noted that in 2017, Mahle pitched only 20 innings in the Majors but also threw an additional 144.2 IP down in the Minors. This is also true to a lesser degree in 2018 and 2019 where he tossed an additional 29.2 IP and 9.0 IP, respectively, beyond his Major League IP.
    Also here is Mahle's batted ball data:

    Similar to Carlos Martinez, Tyler puts the ball on the ground a lot but he does give up the long ball on occasion. When his pitches get put into play they tend toward the left side and up-the-middle in terms of location with approximately 25% to the right side of the mound.
    Why?
    Before the Castro signing, the Angels would probably have targeted SP Tyler Mahle and C Tucker Barnhart, but the latter is almost certainly out of the picture, at least for now. Certainly there are other players such as RP Raisel Iglesias that the Halos could inquire on but the Reds want to compete and Mahle is likely one of their more available players beyond 2B/CF Nick Senzel, who will cost to much to acquire and is not a need.
    On our end the Reds would probably have the greatest interest in one of Andrelton Simmons, David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, one of our young starters (Canning, Suarez, Barria, and/or Sandoval), or one of our bullpen arms (Robles, Buttrey, Ramirez, et. al.). Since it appears Simmons, Fletcher, Canning, Sandoval, Robles, Buttrey, and Ramirez are here to stay, probably, the Angels likely have Rengifo, Suarez, Barria, and any number of prospects not named Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh to deal.
    As a not-so-subtle aside, it has also been reported that the Cincinnati Reds had expressed sincere interest in acquiring, now-signed, Didi Gregorious and, more recently, the Indians Francisco Lindor.
    Clearly Cincinnati wants to upgrade over Freddy Galvis, whom they recently exercised a 2020 option on, and Rengifo (and Lindor obviously) would certainly be that, allowing them to move Galvis into a middle infield utility role behind whomever the shortstop ends up being. Additionally, the Reds recently signed Mike Moustakas to play at the keystone and Votto and Suarez man first and third base, respectively, as well, which means SS is the only open hole to fill.
    Also, on December 30th, 2019, the Reds signed Japanese export CF Shogo Akiyama from the Seibu Lions on a 3-year deal. This move now leaves top prospect Nick Senzel without a clear positional home.
    What this might mean is that Senzel will become the centerpiece of a trade for the aforementioned Lindor. Nick plays center field and second base and, despite the fact that Cleveland traded for two arbitration-controlled seasons of DeShields and signed Hernandez on a 1-year deal, could fit in nicely to the Indians long-term plans at either of those two positions or even third base if Ramirez moves over to the keystone.
    Alternatively, if the Reds lose out on Lindor, they could still look to upgrade at shortstop which is where the Angels have a potential solution in young Luis Rengifo. Adding him to their roster could provide, at the minimum, a platoon solution where Rengifo picks up most of the at-bat's versus RHP or he could even enter a full-time role, allowing Galvis to become the utility player he truly is.
    Finally, the third option is a three-team trade between the Indians, Reds, and Angels, centered around a Lindor-Senzel-Rengifo based deal (Angels would act as more of a facilitating third party to the primary trade). Multi-team trades can get really complicated but there is a scenario where the Indians might have interest in Rengifo, to replace the loss of Lindor, while the Reds would get the heavily-prized Francisco and the Indians, of course, pick up Nick, while the Angels acquire Tyler Mahle or maybe someone like Brad Hand from the Indians.
    Proposed Trade
    A trade might be as basic as this:
    Angels trade SS Luis Rengifo to the Reds in exchange for SP Tyler Mahle
    The Reds have four core members (Castillo, Bauer, Gray, and DeSclafani) for their 2020 rotation with the 5th spot open to competition. Certainly Mahle could be that fifth starter but they could, instead, use him as a trade chip to fill their SS hole or even flip him for an everyday outfielder. Six years of Luis for four years of Mahle is a pretty equitable trade, so the rough valuations seem relatively close.
    Alternatively the trade could expand into a three-team event between the Reds, Indians, and Angels, it might go down like this:
    Angels trade SS Luis Rengifo and OF Jordyn Adams to the Indians
    Reds trade SP Tyler Mahle to the Angels and 2B/CF Nick Senzel to the Indians
    Indians trade SS Francisco Lindor and OF Daniel Johnson to the Reds and RP Brad Hand to the Angels
    Here the Angels are using their organizational depth in the outfield and middle infield to supplement the value of the primary pieces of the trade with Nick Senzel going from the Reds to the Indians and Francisco Lindor going back to the Reds. Basically the Angels are giving up twelve years of player control over two young assets for five years of player control (plus one additional team option on Hand) of two experienced assets and the addition of a modest amount of payroll.
    There are different permutations to a two-team and a three-team scenario but both the Reds and the Indians have some interesting assets the Angels might want to acquire including Carlos Santana (high OBP 1B), Tyler Mahle, Tucker Barnhart, Brad Hand, and Carlos Carrasco for example.
    Conclusion
    Many of you reading may be wondering why should the Angels pursue Tyler Mahle?
    The answer lies in what appears to be his new secret weapon he used sparingly in 2019, his split-fingered fastball:

    This new pitch struck out opposing hitters at a 23% clip and held them to a .110 ISO, good for a wRC+ of 73. It produced a 62.5% GB% which is significantly higher than his other pitches (he was already a ground ball pitcher to begin with). All of this was on a modest .315 BABIP and a pretty crazy 85.2% Z-Contact% (this means hitters made contact in the strike zone) which tells an observer that he trusted the pitch enough that he wanted hitters to make contact, even if it was down the heart of the plate!
    Basically, other than a couple of home runs and doubles, the pitch produced ground ball outs and singles, limiting opponent's offensive production from both sides of the plate, particularly left-handed hitters whom Tyler had struggled with previously.
    Putting any heavy ground ball pitcher into an infield defensive environment like what exists in Anaheim is pure gold and it should not be to hard for the Angels pitching coaches to take a pitcher like Tyler and convince him to throw his split-fingered fast ball on a more regular basis to balance out his quality four-seam fastball and curve ball.
    The bottom line is that Mahle has clearly developed and improved his mechanics, repertoire, and overall ability to pitch during the last three seasons and he appears primed to take another step forward in 2020. His growing ability to put the ball on the ground, via increased use of his split-fingered fastball, would fit well in Anaheim as a mid-rotation starter or possibly even a #2 type.
  6. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    This series will attempt to identify other potential front-line starters that the Angels can possibly trade for and we will continue the series looking at the Detroit Tigers SP Matthew Boyd.
    Facts
    Contract Status - Matthew is in his first year of arbitration in 2020 and has avoided the process by signing a contract for $5.3M. If he continues to perform, as he did in 2019, he will likely make something close to $9M in 2021 and, in his last year of arbitration control, something on the order of $12M-$14M in 2022. Based on his 2019 performance those would be affordable numbers, making him a likely candidate to be kept for all three seasons of his control.
    Repertoire - Four-Seam Fastball (50.9%, 92.4 mph), Slider (34.8%, 80.0 mph), Change Up (6.0%, 79.5 mph), Curve Ball (5.3%, 74.2 mph), and Sinker (3.1%, 90.0 mph)
    Statcast Information - Boyd features a five-pitch mix but relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and slider in-game. Although he gets decent strikeouts with the former and it has above average spin rate, it is the latter that was his bread and butter out-pitch in 2019, particularly and counter-intuitively, against right-handed hitters (RHH):

    And versus left-handed hitters (LHH):

    As you can see, Matthew deals with RHH's more often using his slider, change up, and four-seam fastball, whereas against LHH's he has relied more on the use of his slider, two-seam and four-seam fastballs.
    Boyd's pitch frequency, velocity, and placement (horizontal and vertical break) are visualized below:

    As a starter that relies so heavily on two pitches, Matthew emphasizes the use of his four-seam fastball nearly 50% of the time. Between the four-seam and his slider, they account for almost 86% of his arsenal which is probably not ideal. In 2019, his change up had pretty good exit velocity (80.2 mph), creating softer contact off the bat. With his slider he ran a 41.8% K%. The two-seam fastball and curve ball were, unfortunately, quite hittable (at least against RHH's), particularly the latter.
    Boyd might be better served by mixing in one or more of the other three pitches in his repertoire to keep hitters on their toes. Against RHH's this might be his curve ball or, more probable, change up and versus LHH's increasing the use of the two-seam fastball could prove useful.
    Injury History Risk - Low (No recorded injury history)
    Three-Year History -

    As you can see, Boyd posted an excellent K/9 rate of 11.56 combined with a solid 2.43 BB/9 rate in 2019. That is solid #2 type numbers that were, unfortunately, marred by a #7 type 1.89 HR/9 rate, resulting in 39 home runs given up and a 4.56 Earned Run Average (ERA) for the season.
    Matthew, at least in 2019, was like the Adam Dunn of pitchers; he either struck them out, forced them to put the ball in play, or coughs up a home run. It is an interesting statistical profile insofar that he ran such a good strikeout to walk ratio, yet couldn't keep it in the park.
    Also here is Boyd's batted ball data:

    Matthew can find additional success by: 1) finding a way to keep the ball inside the park more, 2) joining a team with better defense to reduce the damage of balls put into play, and 3) selectively utilizing, based on what type of hitter (LH or RH), his secondary offerings to improve his strikeout results and reduce his Hard% and Med% contact even further.
    Why?
    The Tigers are probably not going to compete during the remaining three years of Matthew's arbitration control and, thus, likely have no real need to keep him and could, instead, flip him for young MLB players and prospects as part of a full rebuild of their roster.
    For the Angels, Boyd represents a player with some front-line upside (those 2019 strikeout numbers were tremendous) but at a mid-rotation price, due to his below average ERA numbers over the last three seasons. In fact it may be possible to acquire him without giving up Brandon Marsh, although it would not be shocking to hear that Detroit has made that ask.
    Basically, Matthew is in this grey zone right now where the Tigers could hold on to him and hope he improves further or they could cash him in now, coming off a good peripherals season, and probably get good value out of him, despite his home run and balls in play averages.
    Proposed Trade
    So the first thing we should do here is discuss Boyd's approximate surplus value.
    Over the last three years, Matthew has averaged approximately 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) per season. Realistically, because he advanced in both velocity and strikeouts per 9 innings last season, there is reason to believe he has improved enough that his Depth Charts projection of 3.0 WAR and ZiPS projection of 3.1 WAR are accurate for 2020 and, probably, the subsequent two seasons.
    Based on a 3 WAR per season projection over the 2020-2022 time frame, and assuming $9.5M per WAR for 2020 with a 7% jump per year, Boyd's total surplus value is approximately $60M give or take a few million.
    Typically that number is enough to pull down a pretty good prospect. However, the mitigating factors in this assessment are Matthew's below average ERA's over the last three years and his elevated home run rate. These numbers will make any team hesitant to pay full asking price and rightfully so probably.
    That being said, this may be the Tigers best opportunity to sell high on Boyd. Additionally, although Detroit may demand a top prospect, they will probably be willing to spread their risk across multiple players and/or prospects, as they rebuild toward their new future.
    So a trade with the Angels may consist of the following players and prospects:
    Angels trade MIF Luis Rengifo, SS Jeremiah Jackson, SP Jose Soriano, and OF Trent Deveaux to the Tigers in exchange for SP Matthew Boyd
    For the Tigers, they get a controllable MLB-ready player to put in their middle infield and three longer-term plays in Jackson, Soriano, and Deveaux. All four of these players have significant upside and provide an opportunity for Detroit to hit on at least one of them moving forward.
    The Angels of course get three years of a MLB mid-rotation starter that has flashes of front-line ability (and flashes of back-end ability too) and has no injury history which should translate into a durable innings-eater, similar to Bundy and Teheran.
    Of course the Tigers could go after more MLB-ready players with long-term control such as Matt Thaiss, Jose Suarez, or Taylor Ward as well. They would probably request a mix of some sort and spread the risk out among at least three players/prospects, in order play the odds on the development side of the equation.
    Conclusion
    Matthew Boyd represents a durable left-handed starting option for a Major League team with the potential for upside based on his slightly improved velocity and strong K/BB ratio in 2019. He has three years of arbitration-control, no injury history to speak of, and can improve further through the implementation and increased use of a third effective pitch against both sides of the plate.
    For the Angels, if the price is right, acquiring Boyd would add a quality starter to their rotation and, if Matthew can rein some of those home runs back into the stadium and utilize the Angels excellent team defense, potentially a sub-4.00 ERA starter over the next three seasons of his control.
    This will be a costly acquisition but probably not a bank-breaking one, particularly because the Angels have several MLB-ready players and prospects that Detroit could use as part of their rebuild effort and so there is a potential match to be made here if the Tigers back-off of any demand for Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh in trade discussions.
  7. ettin
    A healthy Shohei Ohtani is a difference-maker on both sides of the ball
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Note: What can I do here, everyone? Hope for Education is a small, targeted charity with a very specific fundraising goal and they are only a short way off from it. Again, I know some of you might be strapped for cash out there, I get it. But I am not asking for much, $5 is skipping a morning Starbucks run. Even $1, is one item less off the value deal menu at your favorite fast food joint. These kids deserve the opportunity to learn safely in this pandemic environment, so once again I am humbly requesting ANY donation you can afford to make. Thank you for your time and attention! - Robert
    Hitting leadoff for the 2021 Primer Series, the rotation is clearly the biggest concern facing the Halos front office heading into the off-season.
    The Angels, on paper, will pencil in Andrew Heaney and Dylan Bundy, both in their last year of arbitration control, along with Shohei Ohtani, who is, unfortunately, a bit of a wild card health-wise, making his reliability unpredictable, as the initial base of their rotation. We will call this trio “2 and a half men”, for now.
    Beyond those names, the Angels do have a selection of younger pitchers, on the 40-man roster, to choose from, including Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Hector Yan, and Chris Rodriguez. Behind them are additional swingmen, such as Dillon Peters and Felix Pena that can act as spot starters, as well. The Angels also have another upside starter, not on their 40-man roster yet, Reid Detmers, the teams #1 draft pick in 2020, but he is almost certainly not ready for the Majors yet, but could be sooner rather than later.
    If the Angels started the season with the current group of pitchers on the 40-man roster, the likely rotation depth would look something like this (number in parentheses represents the number of Minor League options remaining):
    Shohei Ohtani (3)
    Dylan Bundy (0)
    Andrew Heaney (0)
    Jaime Barria (0)
    Jose Suarez (1)
    Felix Pena (1)
    Griffin Canning (3)
    Patrick Sandoval (2)
    Dillon Peters (0)
    Chris Rodriguez (3)
    Hector Yan (2)
    As it stands, that depth is not too bad. Certainly it could be better, particularly at the top-of-the-rotation where Ohtani’s consistent and healthy ability to pitch is in doubt, but there is sufficient and, daresay, quality depth in the middle and back of the rotation for the Halos.
    Additionally, the team only has Bundy, Heaney, Barria, and Peters, from this list, that must be on the 25-man roster due to their lack of options remaining. Assuming one of the first three is not traded they will almost certainly fill our #3-#5 rotation slots, while Peters will grab a spot in the bullpen, probably as a long reliever and spot starter.
    If you add one high quality starter, like Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, or another top arm, the fabric of our starting five strengthens:
    Top-of-the-rotation starter (Pick your poison) Shohei Ohtani
    Dylan Bundy
    Andrew Heaney
    Jaime Barria
    This is the reason the Angels are likely targeting a top-of-the-rotation starter this off-season. It adds that missing impact arm that cannot only anchor the Halos starting five but will provide that third missing element for a playoff roster, as well. In addition, it pushes young and capable, but less experienced, starters like Jose Suarez, Griffin Canning, and Patrick Sandoval into depth roles, where they really, probably, belong heading into next year, particularly when you consider the potential impacts of the pandemic to their development timeline.
    The addition of a top-tier starter also mitigates some of the risk Shohei brings to the equation by giving Joe Maddon two anchors for the rotation, rather than relying on just Ohtani and his unfortunate arm issues. If Dylan Bundy even comes close to repeating his 2020 performance and Ohtani returns to form, that would give the Angels a three-headed hydra, greatly improving the Halos chances of reaching the playoffs.
    However, in order to get that top-tier starter, the Angels front office will need to use significant resources, whether through payroll, their 40-man roster, and/or their farm system, to acquire that player, which may limit their ability to improve the roster in other areas. The reason we bring this up is that the Angels may best be served by not only acquiring a top-tier starter but also an additional mid-tier type to really build a truly deep, quality rotation (in this case, probably a six-man version) with exceptional depth, which will deplete even more resources, probably.
    This resource loss may not be as bad as it seems, potentially. If there was ever a time to move prospects, particularly with a new GM coming in trying to buttress a team on the verge of contention, it could be now. When you consider how many extra players are hitting the free agent market, too, including a plethora of Minor League prospects that were cut loose, Minasian may see this as an opportunity to not only acquire what the team needs but perhaps fill in some of the holes that will be leftover with fringe prospects that were cut loose from other organizations.
    So, if a top tier starter is in play, what are we looking at in a potential Trevor Bauer signing?
    Frankly a lot.
    Finding an ideal comparable player is not simple but Stephan Strasburg signed a 7-year deal for $245M (an extension to his original extension) to stay with the Nationals, prior to 2020, at 31 1/2 years old. Gerrit Cole, who is significantly better than Trevor, signed a 9-year, $324M (it could be an 8-year, $288M if the Yankees don’t void the player option year) deal. Patrick Corbin, a less comparable player, signed a 6-year, $140M contract, prior to his age 29 season. Muddying the waters, further, is the financial crisis around baseball right now, making this risk-opportunity analysis difficult on both sides, for any prospective, acquiring teams and Trevor’s agent.
    Bauer has made it clear in the past that he might prefer signing year-to-year deals to potentially increase his earning power. However, he walked that statement back a bit, not too long ago, so anything could be in the cards. I actually disagree with MLBTradeRumors.com’s recent assessment that he will find a 4-year deal, that seems odd as it would place Trevor back in free agency in his age 34 season, which does not seem ideal for him. Bauer will be 30 years old in 2021 and I see him either signing an expensive but short 1-2 year deal or going the distance on a 6-8 year pact, based on what the market offers. Perhaps a 1-2 year deal at $40M-45M per season or a 6-8 year deal for something in the $160M-240M ballpark.
    All of this may be a moot point for the Halos, however. In either scenario the Angels will basically use all of the margin in their payroll pushing them up to or over the CBT threshold, into Luxury Tax territory. Moreno has stated in the past he would consider that for the “right” player but that litmus test has never come to pass and, in this economic atmosphere, seems like a longshot.
    The bottom line is that Bauer may be a non-starter if Arte doesn’t tighten up the yacht fuel expenditures. It seems more likely, monetarily, that the Angels will move prospects to acquire another top-of-the-rotation option and then perhaps supplement the rotation further via free agency or additional trades.
    So with that thought in mind, it would not be surprising to see the Angels, in addition to acquiring an ace, pursue a mid-rotation starter to add to their shopping list as well. Heck, even two might be on the table if Minasian decides he wants to send one of Bundy or Heaney out the door to try and micromanage the payroll.
    For example, Perry may want to capitalize on Dylan Bundy’s very successful 2020 campaign and move him and his salary in exchange for one or more near-MLB ready prospects and then trade for another less expensive starter like Vince Velasquez or Jon Gray, on top of acquiring someone like Blake Snell. That Bundy for Velasquez or Gray exchange, would result in about a $1M-3.5M decrease to team payroll for 2021, hypothetically.
    If Minasian encounters a lot of difficulty acquiring an ace, the Angels could add the aforementioned mid-tier starter and see where they end up at the Trade Deadline and then try to acquire one at that time. This in fact might open up other avenues, as teams that were in fringe contention or on the verge of a rebuild, may throw in the towel and sell off a top-of-the-rotation starter, then. Only time and a series of vigorous phone calls and meetings will tell the tale for the Angels new GM.
    This was, in-part, what I was referring to in the Strategy article, regarding the additional unpredictability that this off-season might offer. Perry is not just buying, he is gauging the market across the board to understand how other teams see the value of our assets versus what the Angels believe they are worth. Those assets that have more value to others than they do to the Halos might be shipped out the door like Noe Ramirez and Leonardo Rivas, were, in exchange for Raisel Iglesias (good trade, in principle, by the way).
    Finding that top-of-the-rotation unicorn will not be easy but it will be essential for the Angels in 2021 and thus it needs to be the teams #1 priority, figuratively and literally.
    Expect: The Angels will do everything they can to acquire a frontline starter this off-season and we here at Angelswin.com feel they will be successful in doing so, albeit it may not be Trevor Bauer, considering Moreno’s history to-date. If we do sign Trevor it feels like a one or two-year deal is in the cards so that he can clear the COVID-19 pandemic on a clearer path to free agency and a subsequent long-term pact and Moreno can go over the CBT threshold for no more than two years, avoiding the really high tax rates that kick in on the third year over the Luxury Tax. If Bauer is a no-go, even on a long term deal, a trade for an ace will ultimately cost us one of Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh, likely, as we have sufficient outfield depth in the Minors to pad the loss of one of these fine young prospects or possibly one or more Major League assets. Additionally, the Angels may look to pick up another mid-tier starter, such as the aforementioned Velasquez or Gray or maybe a guy like Carlos Carrasco, Zach Davies or Eduardo Rodriguez, in trade, or conceivably one of our old friends Garrett Richards or Matt Shoemaker or possibly a guy like Jose Quintana, Jose Urena, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, or Tomoyuki Sugano from free agency, for instance (much more likely if we do not acquire Bauer). In the case of the Halos picking up both a front line and mid rotation starter, they may have to move to a six-man rotation (because Heaney, Bundy, and Barria are out of options and Ohtani and any front line starter we pick up are locks for #1 and #2 spots).
  8. ettin
    Was Raisel Iglesias a One-Off, Elite Closer for the Angels?
    The Angels started the 2021 season with what could only be described as a questionable bullpen with two exceptions, in the form of Raisel Iglesias, an established, premium arm, and Chris Rodriguez, a young, promising prospect from the farm system. As the team limped past the Trade Deadline, the front office shook things up and made a series of promotions from the farm system to audition some new, young arms in anticipation of rebuilding the 2022 bullpen.
    Realistically, if Minasian focuses most of the available payroll and resources for one or more starting pitchers, a shortstop, etc., that will leave little left for relief help, thus relying heavily on that aforementioned bastion of young arms. The signing of Aaron Loup did not come without a cost, so barring a Moreno financial flex, it is quite possible the Angels front office may be done in this area, despite a potential desire to retain Raisel.
    Certainly, the Halos did extend Iglesias a Qualifying Offer, but he did not accept, increasing the likelihood he will play for another team in 2022. Also a Raisel extension would likely fall in the $15M-$18M per year range, maybe more, so allocating for this will be very burdensome on team payroll, unless Arte intercedes.
    Finding someone to replace Raisel will be made more difficult, because, although there is a fairly large pool of relievers available in free agency, there is a dearth of top-end talent to pick from this offseason. Minasian will be forced to either retain the increasingly expensive Iglesias or find a similar type of arm in trade, again (Loup was a good target!).
    In fact here is Raisel Iglesias’ Statcast player similarity for reference on how few pitchers there are that even come close in quality to the Angels reliever:

    Raisel Iglesias 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80)
    That is a trio of elite names. This fact may lead the Halos to seriously consider a contract, just on the principle of how good he is, but again, if he accepts, they will be pigeon-holed financially. If you branch out and look at Cole, Glasnow, and Kopech, the closest similarity of relievers you find are free agent Ryan Tepera and Rays reliever Diego Castillo, so if Moreno wants to significantly open the wallet, retaining Iglesias could, still, be a worthwhile and, as the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher reported, possibly mutual goal.
    If the Angels move on from Raisel, they will still need to acquire 1-2 more relievers this offseason, to build proper depth. Loup may be our new closer, but he could also be a set-up guy, too. Either way, he is a nice arm to add to the back-end of the bullpen
    Names that may be of real interest in a back-end role could include Ryan Tepera, Archie Bradley, Oliver Drake, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Corey Knebel, Darren O’Day, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Rosenthal, Joakim Soria, Andrew Chafin, Brad Hand, and Kwang Hyun Kim, among a host of other candidates.
    Of course the trade market holds a vast number of names that the front office could focus on, including guys like Tim Mayza, Luis Medina, Shane Baz, Scott Barlow, Tanner Scott, Michael Fulmer, Richard Bleier, Scott Alexander, and Richard Rodriguez, among other potential targets.
    Adding Aaron Loup to the team's current internal options (40-man), yields the following, probable list of 2022 bullpen candidates:
    Aaron Loup
    Jaime Barria
    Jimmy Herget
    Jose Marte
    Mike Mayers
    Oliver Ortega
    Elvis Peguero
    Jose Quijada
    Chris Rodriguez (Injured, may return by end of 2022)
    Sam Selman
    Kyle Tyler
    Andrew Wantz
    Austin Warren
    That is a good group of arms, in principle, yet it still feels incomplete and could use another closer option. If Chris Rodriguez had not been injured it would have felt more “full”, perhaps even finished to a degree.
    Although the Halos probably want a top-tier closer, they may be priced out of that market, unless they go the trade route or, once again, Moreno opens the pocketbook. As it stands, this is probably our Opening Day 2022 bullpen (generally the team starts the year with eight relievers in order to stretch out the rotation):
    Aaron Loup
    Austin Warren
    Mike Mayers
    Jose Quijada
    Sam Selman
    Jose Marte
    Jimmy Herget
    Jaime Barria (Long relief)
    On paper that is a fairly solid relief corps. Were you to add another back-end arm to that list, it would likely be well inside the Top 15 in MLB, i.e. a real asset to team production.
    However, as it is currently constituted, this bullpen may be slightly above average, at best, barring multiple breakout performances. Basically, outside of Loup and Mayers, there is a lot of uncertainty and risk, for good or bad, with this group of arms. This variability adds risk.
    Reducing uncertainty and risk is GM Perry Minasian’s job, which is why the Halos would be best served finding another back-end reliever, particularly a guy who can close games, preferably, to help reduce the bullpen’s variability. If that is re-signing Raisel, one of the best they can likely acquire, or signing an alternate free agent or, more probable, trading for a preferred arm, that could reduce the variability in performance for our 2022 relief corps.
    The 2021 Los Angeles Angels were spoiled with the likes of Raisel Iglesias and now Minasian is tasked to try and fill that gap, whether it is re-signing Raisel, plugging it with Loup, or finding another solution.
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