By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
This series will attempt to identify other potential front-line starters that the Angels can possibly trade for and we will continue the series looking at the Detroit Tigers SP Matthew Boyd.
Contract Status - Matthew is in his first year of arbitration in 2020 and has avoided the process by signing a contract for $5.3M. If he continues to perform, as he did in 2019, he will likely make something close to $9M in 2021 and, in his last year of arbitration control, something on the order of $12M-$14M in 2022. Based on his 2019 performance those would be affordable numbers, making him a likely candidate to be kept for all three seasons of his control.
Repertoire - Four-Seam Fastball (50.9%, 92.4 mph), Slider (34.8%, 80.0 mph), Change Up (6.0%, 79.5 mph), Curve Ball (5.3%, 74.2 mph), and Sinker (3.1%, 90.0 mph)
Statcast Information - Boyd features a five-pitch mix but relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and slider in-game. Although he gets decent strikeouts with the former and it has above average spin rate, it is the latter that was his bread and butter out-pitch in 2019, particularly and counter-intuitively, against right-handed hitters (RHH):
And versus left-handed hitters (LHH):
As you can see, Matthew deals with RHH's more often using his slider, change up, and four-seam fastball, whereas against LHH's he has relied more on the use of his slider, two-seam and four-seam fastballs.
Boyd's pitch frequency, velocity, and placement (horizontal and vertical break) are visualized below:
As a starter that relies so heavily on two pitches, Matthew emphasizes the use of his four-seam fastball nearly 50% of the time. Between the four-seam and his slider, they account for almost 86% of his arsenal which is probably not ideal. In 2019, his change up had pretty good exit velocity (80.2 mph), creating softer contact off the bat. With his slider he ran a 41.8% K%. The two-seam fastball and curve ball were, unfortunately, quite hittable (at least against RHH's), particularly the latter.
Boyd might be better served by mixing in one or more of the other three pitches in his repertoire to keep hitters on their toes. Against RHH's this might be his curve ball or, more probable, change up and versus LHH's increasing the use of the two-seam fastball could prove useful.
Injury History Risk - Low (No recorded injury history)
Three-Year History -
As you can see, Boyd posted an excellent K/9 rate of 11.56 combined with a solid 2.43 BB/9 rate in 2019. That is solid #2 type numbers that were, unfortunately, marred by a #7 type 1.89 HR/9 rate, resulting in 39 home runs given up and a 4.56 Earned Run Average (ERA) for the season.
Matthew, at least in 2019, was like the Adam Dunn of pitchers; he either struck them out, forced them to put the ball in play, or coughs up a home run. It is an interesting statistical profile insofar that he ran such a good strikeout to walk ratio, yet couldn't keep it in the park.
Also here is Boyd's batted ball data:
Matthew can find additional success by: 1) finding a way to keep the ball inside the park more, 2) joining a team with better defense to reduce the damage of balls put into play, and 3) selectively utilizing, based on what type of hitter (LH or RH), his secondary offerings to improve his strikeout results and reduce his Hard% and Med% contact even further.
The Tigers are probably not going to compete during the remaining three years of Matthew's arbitration control and, thus, likely have no real need to keep him and could, instead, flip him for young MLB players and prospects as part of a full rebuild of their roster.
For the Angels, Boyd represents a player with some front-line upside (those 2019 strikeout numbers were tremendous) but at a mid-rotation price, due to his below average ERA numbers over the last three seasons. In fact it may be possible to acquire him without giving up Brandon Marsh, although it would not be shocking to hear that Detroit has made that ask.
Basically, Matthew is in this grey zone right now where the Tigers could hold on to him and hope he improves further or they could cash him in now, coming off a good peripherals season, and probably get good value out of him, despite his home run and balls in play averages.
So the first thing we should do here is discuss Boyd's approximate surplus value.
Over the last three years, Matthew has averaged approximately 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) per season. Realistically, because he advanced in both velocity and strikeouts per 9 innings last season, there is reason to believe he has improved enough that his Depth Charts projection of 3.0 WAR and ZiPS projection of 3.1 WAR are accurate for 2020 and, probably, the subsequent two seasons.
Based on a 3 WAR per season projection over the 2020-2022 time frame, and assuming $9.5M per WAR for 2020 with a 7% jump per year, Boyd's total surplus value is approximately $60M give or take a few million.
Typically that number is enough to pull down a pretty good prospect. However, the mitigating factors in this assessment are Matthew's below average ERA's over the last three years and his elevated home run rate. These numbers will make any team hesitant to pay full asking price and rightfully so probably.
That being said, this may be the Tigers best opportunity to sell high on Boyd. Additionally, although Detroit may demand a top prospect, they will probably be willing to spread their risk across multiple players and/or prospects, as they rebuild toward their new future.
So a trade with the Angels may consist of the following players and prospects:
Angels trade MIF Luis Rengifo, SS Jeremiah Jackson, SP Jose Soriano, and OF Trent Deveaux to the Tigers in exchange for SP Matthew Boyd
For the Tigers, they get a controllable MLB-ready player to put in their middle infield and three longer-term plays in Jackson, Soriano, and Deveaux. All four of these players have significant upside and provide an opportunity for Detroit to hit on at least one of them moving forward.
The Angels of course get three years of a MLB mid-rotation starter that has flashes of front-line ability (and flashes of back-end ability too) and has no injury history which should translate into a durable innings-eater, similar to Bundy and Teheran.
Of course the Tigers could go after more MLB-ready players with long-term control such as Matt Thaiss, Jose Suarez, or Taylor Ward as well. They would probably request a mix of some sort and spread the risk out among at least three players/prospects, in order play the odds on the development side of the equation.
Matthew Boyd represents a durable left-handed starting option for a Major League team with the potential for upside based on his slightly improved velocity and strong K/BB ratio in 2019. He has three years of arbitration-control, no injury history to speak of, and can improve further through the implementation and increased use of a third effective pitch against both sides of the plate.
For the Angels, if the price is right, acquiring Boyd would add a quality starter to their rotation and, if Matthew can rein some of those home runs back into the stadium and utilize the Angels excellent team defense, potentially a sub-4.00 ERA starter over the next three seasons of his control.
This will be a costly acquisition but probably not a bank-breaking one, particularly because the Angels have several MLB-ready players and prospects that Detroit could use as part of their rebuild effort and so there is a potential match to be made here if the Tigers back-off of any demand for Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh in trade discussions.