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@Inside Pitch the Dillon Peters comment in the Conclusion didn't age well, lol!

On 1/17/2020 at 12:40 PM, Bill Neftleberg said:

 

Then why did bleacher report rank them 28th of 30 teams  with Adell this season at the end of season review. And more importantly why couldn't the Angels acquire a single top of the rotation starter this offseason.?

they settled for a non tender release in Teheran and a 7-14 5+ Era Bundy as a reclamation project.. Surely if your farm system was so strong you could have gotten someone who is legit yet you didnt. even Cole who was rumored to the Angels went elsewhere. moreno had the money for Rendon. Why not for Ryu, Madbum, Keuchel, or Wheeler . Even if he had to overpay?  Obviously the prospects aren't that good or you'd have gotten better pitchers and you wouldn't want Lugo.

I'm just looking at things from a logistical viewpoint. Trout and Rendon, too for that matter aren't getting any younger, id think if those prospects were so good Clevenger (a former angel) Kluber, or Ray, would be Angels right now. Don't you think?

Because Bleacher Report is a notoriously bad site for any baseball news, outside of Scott Miller's reporting, so I would never lend them much credence. They are notorious for bad reporting, outside of a one or two good reporters.

In terms of top of the rotation starters, you should know why. Not only did the Yankees outbid the Angels, Gerrit Cole grew up a fan of the pinstripes, so even if the Angels had matched the 9-year deal Gerrit almost certainly would have taken their offer over ours. Strasburg also chose to stay with the Nationals and it didn't really seem like any other team was going to be able to woo him away. Wheeler's wife wanted to live in Philadelphia on the East Coast and that too was out of the Angels hands. Bumgarner wanted to live in Arizona and took a discount to go there specifically. Ryu got a ridiculous offer from the Blue Jays that even I would not want the Angels to match. Do I need to continue? Ryu and Keuchel both have injury histories that the Halos wanted to avoid. The whole reason they signed Bundy and Teheran was for their apparent durability to provide consistent, stable production over the course of the season. Nothing is promised in baseball but it has been statistically proven that the more injuries you have had the more likely you will get injured again. That is medical fact and Eppler is trying to avoid another season of patchwork pitching that results in bloated ERA's. Even if the Angels do not get another starter this off-season, if they can have the current staff carry them to the Trade Deadline the Angels can revisit many of the top-tier starters that will potentially be available at that point in time.

To top it off the off-season is NOT OVER yet. Come back on Opening Day and if the Angels have not improved their rotation further then I will agree that they dropped the ball in trade but until then your statement about not obtaining a starter cannot be proven true until the rest of the off-season plays out. It would not be shocking to see the Angels wait until Spring Training gets going to ensure that any guy they are going after does not blow their arm(s) out before the season even gets underway. Kluber may have been in play for us but the apparent ask, per our own Jeff Fletcher, was that the Indians were asking for Brandon Marsh and that is a guy Eppler wants to keep, because he has tremendous offensive and defensive potential and it didn't make sense (and I am glad they didn't pay that price). Clevenger will probably cost Jo Adell and the Angels are not doing that trade for all the right reasons because Adell has the potential to be just as productive on the other side of the game than Clevenger is from the mound (although he may not realize that potential in 2020 to be honest). Robbie Ray may not be available as the Diamondbacks look like they want to compete next year (so Ray might be available at the deadline instead).

As this series set out to do, there are other options, like Lugo, that can possibly be acquired. There is still a lot of time left on the clock and I do not think Eppler is done yet so let us revisit this conversation after Opening Day.

Luis Rengifo has been 27% better offensively than Guillorme in their mutual time as Major League players and is, notably, three years younger than Guillorme. Respectfully you are not seeing what is in front of your eyes.

17 minutes ago, Bill Neftleberg said:

Since he is really the only prospect the Angels have worth a proven pitcher like Lugo.

This is a completely inaccurate statement.

Prospects and MLB-ready players like Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams, Patrick Sandoval, Matt Thaiss, Luis Rengifo, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, Jahmai Jones, Jack Kochanowicz, Jeremiah Jackson, Chris Rodriguez, Kevin Maitan, et. al., are all valuable prospects and players. The Angels farm system is much better than you realize or may want to admit.

17 hours ago, Bill Neftleberg said:

no way would lugo go for that, he is their best reliever.

the mets also have Luis Guillorme as a shortstop ready prospect That they like.

realistically with their big need being CF they'll ask for Adell which the Angels wont do and that ends the discussion

last yearthe Tigers offered Boyd for Lugo and the mets turned it down according to John Harper of the NY Daily News so I dpobt they have any real interest in moving him

 

 

So I would never want to argue with such an esteemed New York fan such as yourself but let us look at the facts:

1) Yes Lugo is one of their best relievers but Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Dellin Betances are all on his level, if not potentially better themselves. This is why Seth has value to any team. Certainly we can disagree about a proposed trade but I am here to point out other solutions to finding an ace for the Angels. Three years of Lugo for multiple years of 2+ players/prospects isn't something to sneeze at. It could certainly be a higher asking price or it could be in that ballpark, they are just suggestions.

2) Guillorme is a slick-fielder but so far he has a combined 69 wRC+ across his 144 plate appearances in the Majors. At best he is a light-hitting low-level regular but much more likely to be a utility backup. Rengifo, as an example and comparison, is better.

3) They traded for Jake Marisnick to pair with Nimmo in a traditional platoon in center field, so they have the position covered for 2020. On top of that Seth Lugo does not have enough surplus value to command a top prospect like Jo Adell. The latter probably has close to $70M+ in surplus value while Lugo has, at best, about $35M or so. The Mets wouldn't even have the gall to ask for Adell in a Lugo deal and if they did that would end the discussion from the Angels point of view and rightfully so since it is such a ridiculous ask.

4) I looked for the John Harper article and couldn't find it so feel free to post a link. I find that trade to be lopsided a bit in the Mets favor as Boyd has a bit more value than Lugo overall.

17 hours ago, JBR said:

It’d be so great to get a true masher at 1B. Even limited older 1B like Encarnacion or Smoak (statcast indicated he hit better than his #s suggested) might be good options if they’re reasonably priced. 

However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angels will free up any funds to upgrade 1B given the significant need in the rotation. I could see them simply staying the course at 1B and seeing what sticks during spring training between guys like Pujols, LaStella, Thaiss, etc.

It's hard to imagine the Angels moving on from Pujols, though it seems reasonable, so in my mind it’s sort of like, what combination will they run out of Pujols + ? = 2020 1B. 

16 hours ago, JBR said:

I’d also love to see Upton take grounders at 1B in spring training. His age and recent injuries make me think 1B could be a better fit long-term since Ohtani will mainly be at DH. I have no idea how team and player feel about that obviously, but if Marsh and Adell pan out then why block an OF spot with an aging OF who’s lost a step?  Moving Upton to 1B could be a boost to 1B and OF simultaneously. 

Hi JBR, thanks for reading the series!

In regard to Pujols I really see his role diminishing more to DH'ing and pinch hitting starting in 2020 and his final season in 2021. His offensive productivity came mostly against LHP last year and so it would not be shocking to see him start no more than 80-100 games max, maybe less. He may pick up some 1B time but the Angels probably don't want to see that very often. If the team stays internal, any one of Walsh, Thaiss, or even Ward could see time at 1B. Encarnacion or Smoak make the most sense resource wise. However, I like the idea of Mancini but that may cost to much in prospect capital, his bat looks like it broke out last season.

In regard to Upton, other OF's have certainly found new homes at 1B as their OF defense has declined but it seems like the Angels may want to give him more DH time, particularly after Pujols retires. Certainly an OF of Trout, Adell, and Marsh would be a really exciting combination of offensive and defensive skill, so I am just as excited as you are to see it!