ODNight

As we all know, Trout provides the greatest surplus value at the moment (but not for long as he is about to be very wealthy very soon). Our approach was to look at pitch mechanics (using FanGraphs), the park they play in, the pitch repertoire, the marquee value, and projections. Some projections have Jose Fernandez as a 4 WAR pitcher ($24 million value); however he will be making $630,000. Our other members of the trio were Yu and Bumgarner for various factors. Who does AW think is #2 behind Trout? With his team-friendly contract, I would have to say Cutch.

Last week, I participated in the 2014 SABR Diamond Dollars Case Competition where we were asked to identify who we thought were the most valuable pitching assets that provided the highest surplus vale. Being that it was at an analytics conference, there were a lot of variables that were taken into consideration (park factors, projections, contracts, etc). What would the people at AW value most when evaluating a player. The cost of a win in the prompt was $6 million per WAR with an inflation rate of .05% per year. 

30 is a scary scary number.

I think teams are starting to be scared of offering big money contracts to players at the age of 30. I think agents are realizing this and part of the reason Trout wants to be a FA at 28. Sacrificing a little bit in the front end to get a mega-deal at 28 is probably the game-plan.

Will get 100 million per year. 33% will go into the mlb tv revenue sharing pool. Also looks like they get an equity stake in the network. Not too much of a shocker.

It seems every justification for free agent signing these days is TV Money. Well, Wendy Thurman really does a great job breaking it down.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-national-tv-contracts-and-2014-payrolls/

Essentially, teams will be putting a third of their TV revenues into a pool. Baseball is booming and should enable teams to spend even more. Sounds like the Phillies are next in line to have a new TV deal after next season along with the Reds and the Diamondbacks (hence their "interest" in Tanaka). 

Regardless, it is an interesting read and explains more about where teams are getting all the money from.

Will be interesting to see if Profrar produces and the Rangers end up in the same situation the Angels are in with a ton of big contracts and need to lock him up. Doubt it will be the same historic stats as Trout, but still expect Profrar to be solid.

Even though MLB is not as reactive as "one team signs a few left handed hitters --> we need more lefty pitchers" the Angels are certainly suited for the likes of the Strangers. Choo's platoon splits are borderline horrible if my memory serves me correctly.

Choo: 

Yea. Yea it does.

In most recent years, teams are paying free agents approximately 6-6.5 million dollars on the open market. Right now Steamers and Oliver both project Trout to put up a pedestrian WAR of 9 meaning Trout is worth 54 million dollars on a 1 year basis. Is this possible? Of course not. The arb record is 10 million for Ryan Howard coming off an MVP season. With inflation, I could see Trout getting 15 as his first arb raise. I am more in favor of 12 years and 400 mill variety. While it is a 33.3 AAV contract, he is worth it. Especially if the old max contracts are inflation adjusted. In terms of the payment structure, I would model the raises around the payments that are coming off the books. When VW comes off, raise. When Hamilton comes off, raise. Last raise kicks in year 9. As crazy as it sounds, the numbers justify it, especially when doing comps between Trout, Mays, Mantle, and Cabrera. 

Looking at the numbers, Choo may have high OBP but his OPS vs. LHP is horrible. Brian Kenny may  have a mancrush on Choo, but it will come back to bite Texas in the future.

Don't see Tanaka posted, why not go 1 year on Maholm or Burnett with open competition with Skaggs and Santiago?

SP   Alfredo Aceves (31) Bronson Arroyo (37) Dylan Axelrod (28) Scott Baker (32) Erik Bedard (35) Travis Blackley (31) A.J. Burnett (37) Chris Capuano (35) Bruce Chen (37) Jeff Francis (33) Freddy Garcia (37) Jon Garland (34) Matt Garza (30) Chad Gaudin (31) Jason Hammel (31) Tommy Hanson (27) Aaron Harang (36) Jeremy Hefner (28) Ubaldo Jimenez (30) Jair Jurrjens (28) Jeff Karstens (31) John Lannan (29) Paul Maholm (32) Jason Marquis (35) Daisuke Matsuzaka (33) James McDonald (29) Jeff Niemann (31)   Roy Oswalt (35) Greg Reynolds (28) Clayton Richard (30) Ervin Santana (31) Johan Santana (34) Joe Saunders (33) Kevin Slowey (30) Masahiro Tanaka (25) - right to sign will be acquired via posting system for Japanese players Jake Westbrook (36) Jerome Williams (32) Suk-Min Yoon (27) Barry Zito (36)

I think you could get some serviceable players from this list. I'd sign 2 of them on 1 year deals and let Skaggs, Santiago, and 2 SP's fight for the 4-5 slot.

Did some valuation of the first A-Rod contract which due to inflation the present value would be somewhere between 300 and 385 million dollars for his contract. 400 today may actually seem reasonable. Although it seems Trout is on a platform of his own, I would expect the future contracts of players like Machado, Harper, and other young "phenoms" to be used as leverage. Also it should be worth checking the contracts on the books for the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, and Dodgers even though every team will be interested.

If you read the book, Tango identifies the #2 spot to be designated for your best pure hitter. Trout should stay in the 2 slot as long as Aybar or Kendrick actually get on base.

Not realistic, but maybe Trumbo for Sale?

If JD can get Didi as a throw-in along with Cahill or Skaggs, I say pull the trigger with the intention of moving Aybar for prospects.

I agree; however with the Vernon dollars freeing up, this could be the chance to pay the man. Saw his reps may reach for 15 mil in arbitration (unprecedented). A deal with the Dbacks would make some sense as they have rumored interest in Trumbo. Someone will also want Aybar. Personally, I like the SS they have in Gregorious as they have a prospect SS waiting in the wings who they want to call up. Didi is no Simmons, but I think he is a scrappy ballplayer.

Something just occurred to me: What if the reason we are so scared of the luxury tax this season is that, with Trout about to get PAID, they are afraid of going over next year?

For everyone hoping Hamilton to return to form, I remember BK mentioning something about his contact % and % of pitches he is swinging out of the strike zone. Those 2 are certainly reasons for concern. Hopefully he starts off the year hot and the Halo's can send him to Seattle or something.

If I'm not mistaken, Hughes is a fly-ball pitcher. With all of the technology out there, I wonder how many of the cheap shot fly ball home runs at Yankee Stadiums would have really been outs. If they can get him in the 5-7 million range with incentives, it could be worth looking into.

Just curious, is Cron anywhere near being ready? What is the deal with Cowart? Is he destined for being a minor-league prospect? 

Josh SHAMilton is pretty dang bad. Who was it that coined the phrase "too blessed to be stressed"?

Wait...are we blaming Dipoto for TAKING those guys from Reagins?

Gnar.

Both. The fact that he made his reputation on prospect for MLB players deals against us, and since joining us hasn't done the type of deal once. Although I wouldn't trade a Gatorade cooler for most of the players not named weaver or trout.

Now if only he can pull off a 3 prospect for 1 player deal in our favor. As much as I don't want to see him go, don't be surprised to see him trade trumbo. Hopefully his stock rises to the point he could get some top talent since we won't be getting better through the draft....

Thanks a lot JD. Patrick Corbin and Tylar Skaggs could have been in our rotation right now. Oh yea, to make matters worse, he's 7-0!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think "Light that baby up" is the worst catchphrase right up there with Buttercup....