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Ballin' on a Budget: Under the Radar Free Agents to Consider


CartiHalos

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As the Hot Stove slowly churns along, a lot of the attention is on the big names - Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger, among others.  While these kinds of moves are where some teams make or break their seasons, there's a lot of players that go under the radar that eventually turn into major contributors.  A few that come to mind are Robbie Ray's 1 year, $8 Million deal in 2021 where he won the AL Cy Young award, or Dexter Fowler helping the Cubs win the 2016 World Series on an identical deal.  Now, I'm not saying the Angels will find anyone on a smaller deal that'll win them the World Series or win a major award, but there is lots of value to be had in free agency, even the lower end of the market.  The Angels have a lot of gaps to plug and a limited amount of money to do so, so let's take a look at some potential matches for the Angels.

Tommy Pham

FanGraphs Contract Projection - 1 Year, $8 Million

Adding an outfielder has been reported as a point of interest for the Angels this offseason, being tied to players like Teoscar Hernandez and Jorge Soler. These options have their pros, but come with a much heftier price tag than might be worth it for the Angels, especially if they have plans to spend big on pitching like they've also been rumored to. Tommy Pham is 36, but coming off a great season with the Mets and Diamondbacks.  He had 2.1 fWAR and a 111 OPS+ in 129 games and played a significant role in the Diamondbacks World Series run.  His peripherals are great, with Pham consistently finishing between the 75th and 100th percentiles in the league for BB%, Hard Hit%, and Average Exit Velocity. He's average defensively, which isn't a point in his favor, but it is more than Teoscar Hernandez or Jorge Soler can say. While it's close, he's better at hitting lefties than righties, so he could settle into an everyday right fielder role that pushes Moniak to the 4th outfielder or a platoon with Moniak. Either way, he's a strong veteran presence with a nice bat for less than other outfielders like Harrison Bader costed.  I'd look into it if I was Perry.

Adam Duvall

FanGraphs Contract Projection - 1 Year, $8 Million

Duvall is another veteran outfielder that could provide value to the Angels if given a chance. Like Pham, he's on the older side (entering age 36 season) - but is coming off a stellar 2023 campaign.  Duvall missed 70 games with a fractured wrist, but still accumulated 1.9 fWAR and hit 21 homers with the Boston Red Sox.  He absolutely shredded the first month of the season before getting hurt, and missed May and most of June before coming back with a less impressive, but still strong July and August.  Compared to Pham he's got far more pop in his bat and is much better on defense.  He also strikes out at a much higher rate than Pham and doesn't walk as much, which is a point against Duvall. Regardless, his ability to barrel up the ball and play a solid outfield is reason enough to buy in for that low of a price.  

Michael Lorenzen

Fangraphs Contract Projection - 2 Years, $20 Million

Lorenzen is a familiar name to Angels fans from the 2022 season. In his limited time in a starting pitching role, he's amassed 121.1 innings per season with a combined ERA in the low 4s.  While not anything exceptional, innings have been hard to come by for the Angels in recent years, so a stable righty who can either be used as a back end starter or a long reliever depth piece could be valuable. None of this is to mention the potential Lorenzen showed in 2023, being named to his first All Star Game in 2023 with the Tigers before being dealt to the Phillies at the deadline, where he would end up throwing a no-no. He's decent at missing bats but not very good at converting them to strikeouts, mainly because of a lack of a strike 3 pitch, but controls walks and is good at creating soft contact. In a pitching market that seems to have every pitcher worth an arm and a leg, the Angels could do a lot worse than $10 Million a year.

Brandon Woodruff

General Contract Projection (FanGraphs projection not listed) - 2 Years, < $30 Million

Brandon Woodruff is an interesting case due to his elbow injury, because if he was hitting the open market at his current rate he'd likely be one of the top 3 free agent starters on the board.  He won't pitch at all in 2024, so he was non-tendered by the Brewers to shed his ~$11M arbitration salary.  He's looking at a 2 year deal to prove himself in 2025 before hitting the open market again.  It's a gamble, because you both have to pay him through the injury and risk him not coming back the same, but it could pay major dividends for the Angels if it goes right. Woodruff has been amazing over his career, with a combined 137 ERA+ since 2017 over 680 innings.  He's got elite swing and miss stuff, and a healthy 2023 Woodruff would've had his hat in the ring for the Cy Young award.  If the Angels plan to spend 2024 building their young talent base upwards, having an ace level pitcher on a $10-15M dollar salary in 2025 could be a major difference maker. It's the most out there pick on this list, but could prove the most impactful.

Phil Maton

FanGraphs Contract Projection - 2 Years, $7 Million

The Angels have made some relief pitching moves already with players like Luis Garcia and Adam Cimber, but still have strides to make in the bullpen. Maton is well known to Angels fans as a solid relief piece for the Houston Astros, coming off a career year where he had a 141 ERA+ and threw 68 innings.  He's only 30 years old, and although I'm weary of a 2 year deal, I think for $3.5 Million I could get over it. Maton's career numbers aren't outstanding, but his career peripherals match his stellar 2023 much more than they match the rest of his career.  His stuff is nasty, and he's one of the premier swing-and-miss relievers on the market right now, which makes him someone I'd be interested in seeing in red.

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