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deakscauz

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    deakscauz got a reaction from ispy45 in A look how to build long term   
    Hey all. Let me preface by saying that this is just a casual look at possibilities on how the Angels organization can move forward in a positive manner, not only this season, but for the next 4-5 years which about all you can project when looking at professional sports, and even that is a crapshoot. As a little background, I have been an Angels fan since I was about 7, and growing up in SoCal naturally my grandpa took me to my first game in which Wally Joyner hit a home run...that's about all I remember before I fell asleep...hey, I was 7. Anyways, over the last decade work has taken me away from Southern California to places such as Sacramento and Northern Ohio, and now in Oregon. So I didn't get to be there for the 2002 series, or during the Arte Moreno era of purchasing high priced talent for high prices. What I did get to see were teams like Oakland and Pittsburgh try to compete with ridiculously low salaries. If nothing more this gave me an opportunity to look at the business of baseball through a different prism. So I wanted to share so "arm-chair" GM ideas and just have some fun with it, since lets face it, an Angels game isn't much fun to watch these days.
     
    "Good pitching beats good hitting, and vice versa." -- Yogi Berra
     
    Let us start with forgetting about all the hoopla that came with the past few years signings and trades. The jury will be out on these moves for a few years. Everyone said that Pujols was finished last year, and he still put together a pretty decent season, who knows if Hamilton will do the same. So with that in mind lets take a look at some issues we need to solve, not necessarily in any order.
     
    1. High team salary - This isn't necessarily an issue as the jump in TV revenue coupled with the new divvying of the MLB TV revenue almost alone could cover this years team salary. However, currently the Angels sit at around $140 million in salary give or take. This is the type of salary budget small market teams dream of and the Yankees piss on. Now the only reason I bring this up, and I can't solidify the statement as I don't remember where I saw it, but I remember hearing that Arte Moreno doesn't want to increase salaries much, almost as if what we have now is almost a hard cap, with the exception of certain moves he would approve. So if we look ahead a few years, remembering that the Angels handed out long term deals like they were going out of style, we need to free up at least $20-30 million over the next few years if we are realistically going to sign Trout or Trumbo or any other player making close to league minimum to a realistic tender. We will go over this later on.
     
    2. No trade clauses - I throw this in because I get so tired of seeing the "Trade Pujols/Hamilton/Wilson/etc." type posts all the time. Not that they aren't fun to chat about or think of what-if scenarios, but all of these players have no trade clauses that would heavily prevent any transaction being accomplished. So for the purposes of this post, let's assume that certain players are just off limits when it comes to trades. Odds are these players will play out their contracts close to the end for the Angels.
     
    3. Minor League System - This hasn't been a problem for the Angels for awhile. It is different as a fan seeing an Angels farm system ranked at or near the bottom. But that is exactly what is taking place right now in the Angels organization. High profile trades, and loss of draft picks due to signing high profile free agents have devastated the system. That's something that, if you want to win consistently in the league, you have to have manageable replacements for players. I think as we see this year, that when big time players go down with fluke injuries or whatnot, not having the right person step in can really throw a rally monkey wrench into things.
     
    4. Thought Process - This is more a knock against ownership and Management. There needs to be a drastic reformation of how value is determined for the ballclub. While yes, the financial situation of the Angels organization allows for more generous expenditures, things such as years of control, arbitration, and free agency years need to be taken into account. More on this later as we deal with each player.
     
    So enough of the problems as they present itself, lets move on to the roster and see where we can go from here. Now I understand full well, that some things that I may recommend may fly in the face of everything someone who reads this believe, it's merely a different take on things, no more no less.
     
    Pitching
     
    This has been the Achilles heel of the Angels thus far this year. Yes, issues about runners in scoring position continues to be a problem, but no lineup can consistently provide 7-10 runs a game on average.
     
    Blanton - While I may disagree with the contract of 2 years at the price given, I could foresee Blanton falling back down to earth and generate a much more common career year in terms of stats. Not only that, but realistically Blanton has little to no trade value outside of eating the majority of his contract in a trade. Plus, if we are building for long term success and not just the next year, I'd rather his arm take the punishment of innings than a young prospects. Bottom line, handcuffed by finances and performance, you run him out there every 5th start and hope for the best for the next two years. Sucks, but chalk it up to growing pains. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Sean Burnett - Signed through 2014 with an option for 2015, not cheap, but not expensive. I saw him with the pirates a few years back, and he isn't a superstar, but he is serviceable, and as a lefty can be used as a specialist if need be also. He has value, but let's face it, the goal is to compete while still building for the next 4-5 years. You keep him, and hope that management learns to better use a bullpen. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Dane De La Rosa - The jury is out so far, he has only pitched what 20 some odd innings in his career. Bottom line is he is a cheap, pre arbitration reliever who if he puts up anywhere near average numbers will be useful for the next few years. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Scott Downs - I don't mind him, and he has put up good numbers in the past, but the bottom line is he is 37. He is also costing $5 mil a year but his contract is up at the end of the year. You get what you can out of him this year, then merrily send him on his way and thank him for his service. (Net financial gain in 2014: $5 million)
     
    Ernesto Frieri - He is actually a pretty decent pitcher outside of some high walk numbers. Here is the thing, decide if he is a closer or not, and then pitch him there. His trade value will increase as a hard throwing, strike out oriented closer, so I figure since he is cheap (i.e. pre arbitration) you keep paying him the minimum you need till he either matures and becomes a solid anchor as a closer, or you use him as a setup man and see where it leads. Bottom line is he is cheap and could mold himself into quite the closer or setup man given the right instruction and opportunity. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Garrett Richards - I like the kid. Not only is he pitching better than both Blanton and Hanson, but he is cheap, and under team control for I believe what, 4 more years or so before he hits free agency? You slot him in the 5th starter slot until Weavers return, get him more experience, and see what you come up with. In my scenario, we let Hanson and Vargas walk at the end of the year, so he will be needed next year and the ones after as well. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Jason Vargas - He, like Blanton, will probably not pitch this poorly the whole season, but once again you have a pitcher you are paying $8.5 million to who will give you average to above average pitching. We want to free some money up for some other signings, so we let him walk at the end of the year unless we are out of the race come July, and we pawn him off for whatever C rated prospect he will likely fetch. (Net financial gain in 2014: $8.5 million)
     
    Tommy Hanson - This kid was a beast when he first came into the bigs with Atlanta. The problem is, he reminds me of Scott Kazmir. Hitters are just plain figuring him out, and his stats have declined every year since he made the show. Not only that, he is arbitration eligible next year and will most likely get upwards of $5 million. That's not how you win championships. We thank Tommy for his service at the end of the year, and let him walk. (Net financial gain in 2014: $3.75 million)
     
    Jered Weaver - Don't even begin to think that he is going anywhere. He is a phenomenal pitcher at a team friendly deal. Enjoy him while he lasts. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Jerome Williams - I don't really know what to say other than he is an average pitcher in both a starter or long relief role, and is arbitration eligible again next year. Realistically depending on injury an performance issues this could place his salary next year in the $3-4 million range. Bottom line is you can find a minor league player to fill his role for very similar stats, who would be younger, and less expensive. I say you either include him in a package at the deadline for a couple prospects, or you let him walk. (Net financial gain in 2014: $2 million)
     
    If we realistically understand that Blanton will most likely be here for his contract, and we don't waste money with a buyout, you can make a good decision in letting some of the older players go next year and save roughly $19.25 million in salary. That isn't just a drop in the bucket, that's some serious coin we are talking about here. Obviously the departure of some of these players will leave holes to fill, but more on that later.
     
    Position Players
     
    First things first, drop all notion of Pujols or Hamilton going anywhere. It isn't going to happen. Not only do they both have full no trade clauses, but they still put butts in the stand, like it or not. I'm going to gloss over some things and just focus on things I would do personally.
     
    Chris Iannetta - I didn't agree with the extension the Angels gave him. Not that he is a bad player, he has some pop, catches a decent game, and doesn't throw his mitt at Scoscia after getting signs fed to him. The reason I bring him up is one thing; Hank Conger. Is Hank solid or subpar? Who knows, as right as he was coming up the angels picked up Iannetta and more or less blocked his ascension. Chris makes $5 mil. I couldn't find any information on whether he had a no trade or not. I want to say we try to trade him, but let's be honest, we aren't going to get much, and he could theoretically mentor Conger. It is more the fact that in reserve to take his place the team would most likely call up the atrocity that is John Hester. We don't want that, and we don't have a suitable replacement, so while I would like to see, especially given the injury to his wrist last year, him play far less and platoon with Conger, you are most likely stuck with him for the next few years. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Hank Conger - We just talked about him, but bottom line is he was a decently regarded prospect and you have to give the kid opportunity. You being to play him more often, take some chances with him at DH, and get him some at bats so we better understand the full body of work. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Howie Kendrick - Here is where feathers get ruffled. Howie is an above average hitter and fielder, and has a lot of trade value. This is where the hard decisions are made. Howie can begin blocking trades with a partial no clause next year. Howie also makes $9.1 million. That's a lotta scratch. I like Howie as a player, I always have, but given that the replacement to him was traded (Jean Segura) you will have to replace him with someone such as Romine. I can live with that. The majority of this offense will come from the 1-5 hole players, it's okay to give something like this up. Also, Kendrick is solid trade material; he is signed for 3 more years, and his salary isn't so much as to scare away a small market team. Thanks Howie, you rock, but we have to start building somewhere. (Net financial gain in 2014: $9.1 million)
     
    Alberto Callaspo - On the dl now, he will return and most likely either be benched in favor of Jimenez or take his place either via platoon or full time. I personally think we let him play until July. While Jimenez is doing a fabulous job right now, he is a rookie, and we need to up Callaspo trade value. Callaspo is an above average fielder and player who hits for average-ish. You auction him off at the deadline and hope another GM over reaches with their offer. If you get one B prospect or two C's, you did a good job. After saying goodbye to Callaspo and his $4.1 million salary, you reinsert Jimenez in his place. (Net financial gain in 2014: $4.1 million)
     
    Albert Pujols - This is not a trade him paragraph. Albert needs to be on the DL, and now! You don't send a $200 million investment out every game with one of the most painful injuries. You put him on the 15 day dl and take it from there. You risk surgeries and all kinds of other complications if you don't handle this wisely. Unfortunately, as of right now, the Angels are playing roulette with $200 million. Also, I don't care if AP is a much better fielder than Trumbo, Pujols would never see the field with me. You just invested $200 million for his bat, not his glove. So to keep him healthy and fresh, welcome to the AL Albert, enjoy the rest of your career from the comfy confines of the dugout until your at bat is up.
     
    Mike Trout - Here is again where feathers are ruffled. Tons of people keep saying "Pay the man!" Here is the thing, ever hear of the sophomore slump? Whether Trout has a year similar to last remains to be seen, but as of right now, there are some concerns. Low stealing attempts (though anyone else notice every time he gets a good jump Pujols fouls it off?) Here is the thing. You don't have to pay Trout for really theoretically 3-4 more years. You have a couple years at league minimum and then 2 arbitration years. Now, if you want him at a discount, and by discount I mean $115 million instead of $150 million, you let him play this season out, then you buy out next year, his 2 arbitration years, and 4 years of free agency. That's 7 years of service. You roll what money would have been spent overpaying for free agency years into his salary next year and his arbitration years. This is a way to get a player who, if he plays anywhere near how he did last year, will command a preposterous amount of money on the open market. You are locking him up until almost his age 30 year where players begin to decline. (Net financial gain in 2014 after 7 year/115 million deal: -$16.43 million) ~ As an aside, this year were Trout to be a free agent, he would have got probably close to double what you can most likely sign him for.~
     
    Peter Bourjos - Once again, feathers are a ruffling. Bourjos is a fantastic defensive center fielder and an average hitter with great speed. Basically he is everything you want in a young center fielder. Not only that, but he is cheap! And guess what, we are going to trade him. Not only does Trout have more value offensively as a center fielder (i.e. Trouts offensive stats are outrageous for a center fielder, and while still good for a corner outfielder, they are no longer so spectacular.) Not only will teams fight to get him at the deadline, but they will over pay. I guarantee a team in contention will relish the idea of offloading a low A or high B prospect with a filler or two for Bourjos. He is very projectable in the National League, and under team control for 4 more years. This is where the rubber meets the road in terms of tough decisions for a GM. He is a lot of positive things, but our farm system won't rebuild itself when we keep coughing up 1st round picks to other teams. (Net financial gain in 2014: minimum salary)
     
    Mark Trumbo - Trumbo falls into the same category of Trout except we didn't sign him this past off-season  so he is arbitration eligible next year. That is going to net him a very big raise. I couldn't tell you how much, but my guess would be at least $4 million, probably closer to $5 million. Now you have two choices seeing as how Mark is 27. You pay the man under what he is worth the next two years, thank him for his service, and hope that C.J. Cron is ready by then to take his place. Or you sign him to a power hitting 1st baseman's salary for 5-7 years. Personally, I like Trumbo, and in case you weren't aware, he was born in Anaheim. Go figure eh? Anyways, this off-season, you give him a 5-7 year deal at whatever you can get him to sign for, and promise him that Pujols won't be messing up his 1st base mojo anymore. Realistically I think you could sign him for $6-8 million per season. It is important here to give him at least 5 years but not over 7. Why? Because 7 years from now he will be 34, and aging power hitters decline very quickly. (Net financial gain in 2014 after new deal: -$7.5 million)
     
    Outlook
     
    Here is the deal, if the Angels were to proceed with these moves it would net them $8.52 million next year. What have we accomplished? We said goodbye to Howie and Peter, we signed Mike and Mark to long term sensible deals, and we try to forget about Vargas and Hanson. So we locked up two of our best players, traded a couple very solid players for what hopes to be good prospects, we let aging relievers go, and have hopefully given our farm system a shot in the arm. Also, it's important to note that we really didn't do a whole lot. We only made a couple trades, and nothing that doomed us for this year. We freed up some money, and spent it on young, homegrown talent. Hey, isn't that a recipe for success for most teams?
     
    The Replacements
     
    "Whoa" - Every Keanu Reeves movie
     
    Here is the bottom line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to sit and conjure up every replacement for the players we let walk at the end of the year, or traded nearing the deadline. What I can say is that at this point, we are vastly overpaying for the players we have. I can sit there and say that Romine might field as well as Kendrick (doubtful as most his games are logged at SS, but it's very similar.) I can say that Calhoun could take over for Trout in LF as Mike makes his way back to CF. It's all a crapshoot when it comes to replacements. We can project given stats and theories etc. But realistically it boils down to this; some of these players are supplemental. This means that on a team where 3/5 of your rotation is set for the next 4 years, and 6/9 of your lineup is set for roughly the same time, you can only do so much. If we trade for some young high ceiling prospects and call up minor league players who can play barely above replacement, you are still left with a very capable team. Those players we do have will hit peaks and valley as the baseball Gods toy with their streaks. It is important to note that we are trying to supplement the core that is already in place, not rebuild it.
     
    A note on trades
     
    I want to take a moment and say one thing about trades and the farm system. I think one thing that a GM must do is to find mutually beneficial situations for trades. Now I can go on all day with this, but let me give an example of if we were to decide to part ways with Howie Kendrick. I think a fantastic potential target would be the Royals. Why? A couple reasons, they are a team with a stocked system who is transitioning into a "win-now" mode. They are past trade partners with I would imagine a decent relationship. Also, they have a real need at 2B. They have an average player in Chris Getz, and I'm sure would be willing to part with some pieces to obtain him. What pieces you might ask? Well, let's look at it realistically. They might part with John Lamb, a 22 year old lefty who had just made AAA before needing Tommy John surgery. As a 22 year old, it's always difficult to place weights on something like TJ surgery, so you might be able to get him as a throw in. He is projectable, and still young, and on the Royals 40 man roster meaning if they trade him they can now conceal another coveted prospect of theirs from the rule 5 draft next year. He could make the bigs as early as 2-3 years as a 3-5 starter and is a lefty. Christian Colon, a young 24 year old 2B who could be an everyday starter or at least a utility man. He is a contact hitter with an above average glove, who is young, cheap, and not super high on prospect boards. So thus far, if things go well, we have wrangled a B prospect in Lamb, and a C prospect in Colon. But we want this to really work well for both sides don't we? We really need to get a starting pitcher that can pitch now, is cheap, and won't embarrass us. How about Nate Adcock? He isn't highly touted, has pitched to a 3.79 ERA in a couple partial seasons in relief with the Royals, and could slot in behind Richards as 5th in the rotation and give us what would most likely be average level play. The thing is, he doesn't have to be an ace. If he gives up 2-3 runs in 6 IP he has done his job which is to keep the team in the game, turn it over to the bullpen without a 9 run deficit, and given a chance to win.
     
    So we look at what we gave up and what we get. We gave up Howie Kendrick to get 3 decent players who project well and cost next to nothing. One player can replace Howie at 2nd base, though not as well. One can slot into the rotation as a 4 or 5 starter and give adequate performance, and one is a young 22 year old left with a reasonably high ceiling that could progress well in the next few years. Theoretically the Royals might not even bite on this deal as Adcock is good enough to start in the majors, it's just that they have a huge logjam at pitching now after their off-season deals. Theoretically we may end up eating some of the contract, though I would ride that trade horse till she bucks you before agreeing to pick up salary.
     
    Recap
     
    This was really long and probably really boring to read, but hey, it's fun sometimes to think of this stuff. Take this all with a grain of salt and whatnot, I guess I just look at it from a couple sides, and though I left a lot undone in this post (filling some of the vacant spots,) it could be easily remedied. There is so much more to cover, but it's long enough already. Personally, I think management in terms of coaches need a gigantic overhaul, but the downside is who to get to replace them all. Everyone, at least right now, is a push in terms of replacement value. Now, come the end of the year, I think a lot of possibilities open up for managers and bench coaches etc. Anyways, hope you guys like the read, but remember, it's just a game, and I'm just messing around. The likelihood any of this ever happens is so minute that it's just fun to think up. 
  2. Like
    deakscauz got a reaction from Chuck in A look how to build long term   
    Hey all. Let me preface by saying that this is just a casual look at possibilities on how the Angels organization can move forward in a positive manner, not only this season, but for the next 4-5 years which about all you can project when looking at professional sports, and even that is a crapshoot. As a little background, I have been an Angels fan since I was about 7, and growing up in SoCal naturally my grandpa took me to my first game in which Wally Joyner hit a home run...that's about all I remember before I fell asleep...hey, I was 7. Anyways, over the last decade work has taken me away from Southern California to places such as Sacramento and Northern Ohio, and now in Oregon. So I didn't get to be there for the 2002 series, or during the Arte Moreno era of purchasing high priced talent for high prices. What I did get to see were teams like Oakland and Pittsburgh try to compete with ridiculously low salaries. If nothing more this gave me an opportunity to look at the business of baseball through a different prism. So I wanted to share so "arm-chair" GM ideas and just have some fun with it, since lets face it, an Angels game isn't much fun to watch these days.
     
    "Good pitching beats good hitting, and vice versa." -- Yogi Berra
     
    Let us start with forgetting about all the hoopla that came with the past few years signings and trades. The jury will be out on these moves for a few years. Everyone said that Pujols was finished last year, and he still put together a pretty decent season, who knows if Hamilton will do the same. So with that in mind lets take a look at some issues we need to solve, not necessarily in any order.
     
    1. High team salary - This isn't necessarily an issue as the jump in TV revenue coupled with the new divvying of the MLB TV revenue almost alone could cover this years team salary. However, currently the Angels sit at around $140 million in salary give or take. This is the type of salary budget small market teams dream of and the Yankees piss on. Now the only reason I bring this up, and I can't solidify the statement as I don't remember where I saw it, but I remember hearing that Arte Moreno doesn't want to increase salaries much, almost as if what we have now is almost a hard cap, with the exception of certain moves he would approve. So if we look ahead a few years, remembering that the Angels handed out long term deals like they were going out of style, we need to free up at least $20-30 million over the next few years if we are realistically going to sign Trout or Trumbo or any other player making close to league minimum to a realistic tender. We will go over this later on.
     
    2. No trade clauses - I throw this in because I get so tired of seeing the "Trade Pujols/Hamilton/Wilson/etc." type posts all the time. Not that they aren't fun to chat about or think of what-if scenarios, but all of these players have no trade clauses that would heavily prevent any transaction being accomplished. So for the purposes of this post, let's assume that certain players are just off limits when it comes to trades. Odds are these players will play out their contracts close to the end for the Angels.
     
    3. Minor League System - This hasn't been a problem for the Angels for awhile. It is different as a fan seeing an Angels farm system ranked at or near the bottom. But that is exactly what is taking place right now in the Angels organization. High profile trades, and loss of draft picks due to signing high profile free agents have devastated the system. That's something that, if you want to win consistently in the league, you have to have manageable replacements for players. I think as we see this year, that when big time players go down with fluke injuries or whatnot, not having the right person step in can really throw a rally monkey wrench into things.
     
    4. Thought Process - This is more a knock against ownership and Management. There needs to be a drastic reformation of how value is determined for the ballclub. While yes, the financial situation of the Angels organization allows for more generous expenditures, things such as years of control, arbitration, and free agency years need to be taken into account. More on this later as we deal with each player.
     
    So enough of the problems as they present itself, lets move on to the roster and see where we can go from here. Now I understand full well, that some things that I may recommend may fly in the face of everything someone who reads this believe, it's merely a different take on things, no more no less.
     
    Pitching
     
    This has been the Achilles heel of the Angels thus far this year. Yes, issues about runners in scoring position continues to be a problem, but no lineup can consistently provide 7-10 runs a game on average.
     
    Blanton - While I may disagree with the contract of 2 years at the price given, I could foresee Blanton falling back down to earth and generate a much more common career year in terms of stats. Not only that, but realistically Blanton has little to no trade value outside of eating the majority of his contract in a trade. Plus, if we are building for long term success and not just the next year, I'd rather his arm take the punishment of innings than a young prospects. Bottom line, handcuffed by finances and performance, you run him out there every 5th start and hope for the best for the next two years. Sucks, but chalk it up to growing pains. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Sean Burnett - Signed through 2014 with an option for 2015, not cheap, but not expensive. I saw him with the pirates a few years back, and he isn't a superstar, but he is serviceable, and as a lefty can be used as a specialist if need be also. He has value, but let's face it, the goal is to compete while still building for the next 4-5 years. You keep him, and hope that management learns to better use a bullpen. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Dane De La Rosa - The jury is out so far, he has only pitched what 20 some odd innings in his career. Bottom line is he is a cheap, pre arbitration reliever who if he puts up anywhere near average numbers will be useful for the next few years. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Scott Downs - I don't mind him, and he has put up good numbers in the past, but the bottom line is he is 37. He is also costing $5 mil a year but his contract is up at the end of the year. You get what you can out of him this year, then merrily send him on his way and thank him for his service. (Net financial gain in 2014: $5 million)
     
    Ernesto Frieri - He is actually a pretty decent pitcher outside of some high walk numbers. Here is the thing, decide if he is a closer or not, and then pitch him there. His trade value will increase as a hard throwing, strike out oriented closer, so I figure since he is cheap (i.e. pre arbitration) you keep paying him the minimum you need till he either matures and becomes a solid anchor as a closer, or you use him as a setup man and see where it leads. Bottom line is he is cheap and could mold himself into quite the closer or setup man given the right instruction and opportunity. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Garrett Richards - I like the kid. Not only is he pitching better than both Blanton and Hanson, but he is cheap, and under team control for I believe what, 4 more years or so before he hits free agency? You slot him in the 5th starter slot until Weavers return, get him more experience, and see what you come up with. In my scenario, we let Hanson and Vargas walk at the end of the year, so he will be needed next year and the ones after as well. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Jason Vargas - He, like Blanton, will probably not pitch this poorly the whole season, but once again you have a pitcher you are paying $8.5 million to who will give you average to above average pitching. We want to free some money up for some other signings, so we let him walk at the end of the year unless we are out of the race come July, and we pawn him off for whatever C rated prospect he will likely fetch. (Net financial gain in 2014: $8.5 million)
     
    Tommy Hanson - This kid was a beast when he first came into the bigs with Atlanta. The problem is, he reminds me of Scott Kazmir. Hitters are just plain figuring him out, and his stats have declined every year since he made the show. Not only that, he is arbitration eligible next year and will most likely get upwards of $5 million. That's not how you win championships. We thank Tommy for his service at the end of the year, and let him walk. (Net financial gain in 2014: $3.75 million)
     
    Jered Weaver - Don't even begin to think that he is going anywhere. He is a phenomenal pitcher at a team friendly deal. Enjoy him while he lasts. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Jerome Williams - I don't really know what to say other than he is an average pitcher in both a starter or long relief role, and is arbitration eligible again next year. Realistically depending on injury an performance issues this could place his salary next year in the $3-4 million range. Bottom line is you can find a minor league player to fill his role for very similar stats, who would be younger, and less expensive. I say you either include him in a package at the deadline for a couple prospects, or you let him walk. (Net financial gain in 2014: $2 million)
     
    If we realistically understand that Blanton will most likely be here for his contract, and we don't waste money with a buyout, you can make a good decision in letting some of the older players go next year and save roughly $19.25 million in salary. That isn't just a drop in the bucket, that's some serious coin we are talking about here. Obviously the departure of some of these players will leave holes to fill, but more on that later.
     
    Position Players
     
    First things first, drop all notion of Pujols or Hamilton going anywhere. It isn't going to happen. Not only do they both have full no trade clauses, but they still put butts in the stand, like it or not. I'm going to gloss over some things and just focus on things I would do personally.
     
    Chris Iannetta - I didn't agree with the extension the Angels gave him. Not that he is a bad player, he has some pop, catches a decent game, and doesn't throw his mitt at Scoscia after getting signs fed to him. The reason I bring him up is one thing; Hank Conger. Is Hank solid or subpar? Who knows, as right as he was coming up the angels picked up Iannetta and more or less blocked his ascension. Chris makes $5 mil. I couldn't find any information on whether he had a no trade or not. I want to say we try to trade him, but let's be honest, we aren't going to get much, and he could theoretically mentor Conger. It is more the fact that in reserve to take his place the team would most likely call up the atrocity that is John Hester. We don't want that, and we don't have a suitable replacement, so while I would like to see, especially given the injury to his wrist last year, him play far less and platoon with Conger, you are most likely stuck with him for the next few years. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Hank Conger - We just talked about him, but bottom line is he was a decently regarded prospect and you have to give the kid opportunity. You being to play him more often, take some chances with him at DH, and get him some at bats so we better understand the full body of work. (Net financial gain in 2014: none)
     
    Howie Kendrick - Here is where feathers get ruffled. Howie is an above average hitter and fielder, and has a lot of trade value. This is where the hard decisions are made. Howie can begin blocking trades with a partial no clause next year. Howie also makes $9.1 million. That's a lotta scratch. I like Howie as a player, I always have, but given that the replacement to him was traded (Jean Segura) you will have to replace him with someone such as Romine. I can live with that. The majority of this offense will come from the 1-5 hole players, it's okay to give something like this up. Also, Kendrick is solid trade material; he is signed for 3 more years, and his salary isn't so much as to scare away a small market team. Thanks Howie, you rock, but we have to start building somewhere. (Net financial gain in 2014: $9.1 million)
     
    Alberto Callaspo - On the dl now, he will return and most likely either be benched in favor of Jimenez or take his place either via platoon or full time. I personally think we let him play until July. While Jimenez is doing a fabulous job right now, he is a rookie, and we need to up Callaspo trade value. Callaspo is an above average fielder and player who hits for average-ish. You auction him off at the deadline and hope another GM over reaches with their offer. If you get one B prospect or two C's, you did a good job. After saying goodbye to Callaspo and his $4.1 million salary, you reinsert Jimenez in his place. (Net financial gain in 2014: $4.1 million)
     
    Albert Pujols - This is not a trade him paragraph. Albert needs to be on the DL, and now! You don't send a $200 million investment out every game with one of the most painful injuries. You put him on the 15 day dl and take it from there. You risk surgeries and all kinds of other complications if you don't handle this wisely. Unfortunately, as of right now, the Angels are playing roulette with $200 million. Also, I don't care if AP is a much better fielder than Trumbo, Pujols would never see the field with me. You just invested $200 million for his bat, not his glove. So to keep him healthy and fresh, welcome to the AL Albert, enjoy the rest of your career from the comfy confines of the dugout until your at bat is up.
     
    Mike Trout - Here is again where feathers are ruffled. Tons of people keep saying "Pay the man!" Here is the thing, ever hear of the sophomore slump? Whether Trout has a year similar to last remains to be seen, but as of right now, there are some concerns. Low stealing attempts (though anyone else notice every time he gets a good jump Pujols fouls it off?) Here is the thing. You don't have to pay Trout for really theoretically 3-4 more years. You have a couple years at league minimum and then 2 arbitration years. Now, if you want him at a discount, and by discount I mean $115 million instead of $150 million, you let him play this season out, then you buy out next year, his 2 arbitration years, and 4 years of free agency. That's 7 years of service. You roll what money would have been spent overpaying for free agency years into his salary next year and his arbitration years. This is a way to get a player who, if he plays anywhere near how he did last year, will command a preposterous amount of money on the open market. You are locking him up until almost his age 30 year where players begin to decline. (Net financial gain in 2014 after 7 year/115 million deal: -$16.43 million) ~ As an aside, this year were Trout to be a free agent, he would have got probably close to double what you can most likely sign him for.~
     
    Peter Bourjos - Once again, feathers are a ruffling. Bourjos is a fantastic defensive center fielder and an average hitter with great speed. Basically he is everything you want in a young center fielder. Not only that, but he is cheap! And guess what, we are going to trade him. Not only does Trout have more value offensively as a center fielder (i.e. Trouts offensive stats are outrageous for a center fielder, and while still good for a corner outfielder, they are no longer so spectacular.) Not only will teams fight to get him at the deadline, but they will over pay. I guarantee a team in contention will relish the idea of offloading a low A or high B prospect with a filler or two for Bourjos. He is very projectable in the National League, and under team control for 4 more years. This is where the rubber meets the road in terms of tough decisions for a GM. He is a lot of positive things, but our farm system won't rebuild itself when we keep coughing up 1st round picks to other teams. (Net financial gain in 2014: minimum salary)
     
    Mark Trumbo - Trumbo falls into the same category of Trout except we didn't sign him this past off-season  so he is arbitration eligible next year. That is going to net him a very big raise. I couldn't tell you how much, but my guess would be at least $4 million, probably closer to $5 million. Now you have two choices seeing as how Mark is 27. You pay the man under what he is worth the next two years, thank him for his service, and hope that C.J. Cron is ready by then to take his place. Or you sign him to a power hitting 1st baseman's salary for 5-7 years. Personally, I like Trumbo, and in case you weren't aware, he was born in Anaheim. Go figure eh? Anyways, this off-season, you give him a 5-7 year deal at whatever you can get him to sign for, and promise him that Pujols won't be messing up his 1st base mojo anymore. Realistically I think you could sign him for $6-8 million per season. It is important here to give him at least 5 years but not over 7. Why? Because 7 years from now he will be 34, and aging power hitters decline very quickly. (Net financial gain in 2014 after new deal: -$7.5 million)
     
    Outlook
     
    Here is the deal, if the Angels were to proceed with these moves it would net them $8.52 million next year. What have we accomplished? We said goodbye to Howie and Peter, we signed Mike and Mark to long term sensible deals, and we try to forget about Vargas and Hanson. So we locked up two of our best players, traded a couple very solid players for what hopes to be good prospects, we let aging relievers go, and have hopefully given our farm system a shot in the arm. Also, it's important to note that we really didn't do a whole lot. We only made a couple trades, and nothing that doomed us for this year. We freed up some money, and spent it on young, homegrown talent. Hey, isn't that a recipe for success for most teams?
     
    The Replacements
     
    "Whoa" - Every Keanu Reeves movie
     
    Here is the bottom line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to sit and conjure up every replacement for the players we let walk at the end of the year, or traded nearing the deadline. What I can say is that at this point, we are vastly overpaying for the players we have. I can sit there and say that Romine might field as well as Kendrick (doubtful as most his games are logged at SS, but it's very similar.) I can say that Calhoun could take over for Trout in LF as Mike makes his way back to CF. It's all a crapshoot when it comes to replacements. We can project given stats and theories etc. But realistically it boils down to this; some of these players are supplemental. This means that on a team where 3/5 of your rotation is set for the next 4 years, and 6/9 of your lineup is set for roughly the same time, you can only do so much. If we trade for some young high ceiling prospects and call up minor league players who can play barely above replacement, you are still left with a very capable team. Those players we do have will hit peaks and valley as the baseball Gods toy with their streaks. It is important to note that we are trying to supplement the core that is already in place, not rebuild it.
     
    A note on trades
     
    I want to take a moment and say one thing about trades and the farm system. I think one thing that a GM must do is to find mutually beneficial situations for trades. Now I can go on all day with this, but let me give an example of if we were to decide to part ways with Howie Kendrick. I think a fantastic potential target would be the Royals. Why? A couple reasons, they are a team with a stocked system who is transitioning into a "win-now" mode. They are past trade partners with I would imagine a decent relationship. Also, they have a real need at 2B. They have an average player in Chris Getz, and I'm sure would be willing to part with some pieces to obtain him. What pieces you might ask? Well, let's look at it realistically. They might part with John Lamb, a 22 year old lefty who had just made AAA before needing Tommy John surgery. As a 22 year old, it's always difficult to place weights on something like TJ surgery, so you might be able to get him as a throw in. He is projectable, and still young, and on the Royals 40 man roster meaning if they trade him they can now conceal another coveted prospect of theirs from the rule 5 draft next year. He could make the bigs as early as 2-3 years as a 3-5 starter and is a lefty. Christian Colon, a young 24 year old 2B who could be an everyday starter or at least a utility man. He is a contact hitter with an above average glove, who is young, cheap, and not super high on prospect boards. So thus far, if things go well, we have wrangled a B prospect in Lamb, and a C prospect in Colon. But we want this to really work well for both sides don't we? We really need to get a starting pitcher that can pitch now, is cheap, and won't embarrass us. How about Nate Adcock? He isn't highly touted, has pitched to a 3.79 ERA in a couple partial seasons in relief with the Royals, and could slot in behind Richards as 5th in the rotation and give us what would most likely be average level play. The thing is, he doesn't have to be an ace. If he gives up 2-3 runs in 6 IP he has done his job which is to keep the team in the game, turn it over to the bullpen without a 9 run deficit, and given a chance to win.
     
    So we look at what we gave up and what we get. We gave up Howie Kendrick to get 3 decent players who project well and cost next to nothing. One player can replace Howie at 2nd base, though not as well. One can slot into the rotation as a 4 or 5 starter and give adequate performance, and one is a young 22 year old left with a reasonably high ceiling that could progress well in the next few years. Theoretically the Royals might not even bite on this deal as Adcock is good enough to start in the majors, it's just that they have a huge logjam at pitching now after their off-season deals. Theoretically we may end up eating some of the contract, though I would ride that trade horse till she bucks you before agreeing to pick up salary.
     
    Recap
     
    This was really long and probably really boring to read, but hey, it's fun sometimes to think of this stuff. Take this all with a grain of salt and whatnot, I guess I just look at it from a couple sides, and though I left a lot undone in this post (filling some of the vacant spots,) it could be easily remedied. There is so much more to cover, but it's long enough already. Personally, I think management in terms of coaches need a gigantic overhaul, but the downside is who to get to replace them all. Everyone, at least right now, is a push in terms of replacement value. Now, come the end of the year, I think a lot of possibilities open up for managers and bench coaches etc. Anyways, hope you guys like the read, but remember, it's just a game, and I'm just messing around. The likelihood any of this ever happens is so minute that it's just fun to think up. 
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