By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

As with the hitters, the Angels pitching staff has a good amount of variability, although perhaps a bit less, with almost every starter having a floor of a #4-5 and either #3 or, in one or two cases, #2 upside. I'll look at the bullpen in a third instalment.

A note on "worst-case scenarios:" For pitchers, even durable ones, there's always the lingering phantom of a blowout and/or Tommy John surgery. Rather than repeat myself for every pitcher, I'll only mention that if there is a significant injury concern beyond the norm. In other words, worst-case scenarios don't include the "absolute worst" of TJS, but are rather more focused on performance only.

SP REID DETMERS

Best:  We finally come to a place in which Reid Detmers is not simply the "staff ace" by default (that is, there's no one else), but he's actually a legit #2ish starter. In this scenario, he irons out the kinks of the last few years and puts together a full season like one of his hot-streaks: a sub 3.50 ERA, 180+ IP, and ~4 WAR. 

Worst: More uneven performance like the last two years, which is still pretty good, but more Heaney-esque than Finley-esque.

My Prediction: If there's any player that I feel relatively confident flat-out predicting that they hit their best-case scenario--or close to it--in 2024, it is Detmers. I don't think he'll reach his peak level yet, but I do think that he'll be more consistent and have more good starts than bad, so an ERA around 3.50, and more innings (170ish). Meaning, if he doesn't reach his best-case scenario, he'll be close.

SP PATRICK SANDOVAL

Best: He defies the warning signs and bounces back to 2022 level, with an ERA around 3.00 and even manages to reduce his pitch count and bit and surpasses 150 IP.

Worst: The warning signs explode into a total poop-show. Sandoval struggles to throw strikes and his ERA creeps up to the mid-4.00 range.

My Prediction: I'm worried - not hugely so (yet), but something just seems off. The good news is that while his velocity was down early last year, it trended up all season and his last start was not only the highest of the year, but one of the highest of his career. But in order to even take a step back to his 2022 level (3.7 WAR in 148 IP), he has to curb the walks. last year he walked 4.6 batters per 9 IP - up a full walk from the last two seasons - and his K-rate went down more than a full strikeout. So my prediction is...I don't know. Let's see how he looks after five starts.

SP TYLER ANDERSON

Best: Even in the best of possible worlds--or at least those that have a real chance of happening--it is hard to imagine Anderson re-capturing his 2022 performance (2.57 ERA, 4.0 WAR). But if you look at his FIP that year (3.30) and split the difference with his career rare (4.29), then you get around 3.80...which is about the performance level for ERA that I think a best-case Anderson is capable of. 

Worst: A continuation of last year. 

My Prediction: Not a lot of variance with Anderson. Split the difference between 2022 and 2023 and you have a decent #4 pitcher with an ERA in the low 4.00s and a solid number of innings. Anderson may even end up under-appreciated for much of the season, but eventually we'll learn to enjoy the fact that he's consistently putting up solid innings. Not sexy, but steady.

SP GRIFFIN CANNING

Best: Canning finally makes good on his potential and becomes a good (and consistent) #3 starter, even fringy #2, and embodies the leadership role that Ron Washington envisions for him. 

Worst: Aside from a revisit to the injuries of the last couple years, the worst-case scenario for Canning is that he doesn't progress further. Last year he produced a 4.32 ERA and 1.8 WAR in 127 IP, which means he's already a 2-3 WAR starter - which is either a good #4 or fringe #3. The FIP was almost exactly the same as his ERA (4.29), so it is possible that this is who he is. In other words, while much has been made of his comeback last year, it was really only to the solid level of 2019-20, which is as a solid #4. So the worst-case scenario is that is who Canning is, which isn't so bad but not what we hoped for.

My Prediction: I think we'll see a consolidation of 2023's performance, but with slight overall improvement and more innings: an ERA in the 3.70-4.20 range, 150+ IP, 3+ WAR. In other words, he'll establish himself as a bonafide #3.

SP CHASE SILSETH

Best: We'll call this the "Angels fan scenario," because it is an outlook that only Angels fans seem to see for young Mr. Silseth. In this scenario, he makes good on the flashes of promise we've seen over the last couple years and becomes a true #2 starter - right there with Detmers (and perhaps a resurgent Sandoval and/or best-case scenario Canning) for best pitcher on the staff. 

Worst: More erratic performance, and is eventually relegated to a relief role. Or another alternative, it just takes a few years for him to find his best form - but it it won't be 2024.

My Prediction: Silseth has the widest variance, at least over the pitchers above him. As I implied in the "Best" section, there seems to be a wide gap between Angels fans and analysts as to his upside; I can't think of an outlet that sees the potential that some of us see in him. Whether that is because of fan bias or knowledge is hard to say; probably some of both. Regardless, I think Silseth will become a good starter, but not the ace some envision - but a #2-3 pitcher who has some flashes of brilliance, but isn't consistent enough to be a true ace. In 2024, I think the inconsistency will still be a major factor, but the trajectory will be positive.

SP ZACH PLESAC

Best: Plesac picks up where he left off in 2019-20, four years ago, and becomes a solid mid-rotation starter.

Worst: 2021-23 proves to be his true level; in other words, a back-end starter. There's also the lingering attitude concerns, so he's probably either going to do well or be released.

My Prediction: Who knows? We probably need to see a few starts, but if he does well enough, I'm guessing he ends up as AAA depth but ends up with 10+ major league starts and/or in the bullpen.

SP/RP JOSE SUAREZ

Best: The time off brings things together for Suarez, and we see far more of the better version than the worse. He becomes a solid #3-4 starter or a very good middle reliever.

Worst: Prone to bad spells, Suarez is relegated to the bullpen and becomes an innings-eating long reliever utilized in low-leverage situations.

My Prediction:  I personally like the idea of taking the idea of the "worst"--that of a long reliever/swingman--but with the hopes that he pitches well in that capacity, and can be relied upon in a variety of situations. He could be a very useful pitcher if used correctly, but I'm not sure that is as a regular starter. As things stand, he's probably third on the list of potential #5 starters, behind Silseth and Plesac. I imagine he'll pitch in a variety of situations, from spot starts to long relief. By season's end, we could be looking back at him as one of the quiet stalwarts on the pitching staff.

OTHERS

Davis Daniel making good on his potential probably means a solid #4 starter, which is more valuable than it sounds, but the not-so-young prospect (27 in June) has had a slow road: a delayed professional debut due to injury, a lost 2020 due to covid, solid development in 2021-22, then most of 2023 lost to injury. At this point, I'm only hoping for a serviceable relief pitcher and/or AAA depth. Kenny Rosenberg is the quintessential minor league "depth starter" - not the worst guy to start in a pinch, but a dime-a-dozen in AAA. Victor Mederos probably has the most upside of likely AAA starters, but needs more seasoning and is less likely to receive a major league gig than some of the others. Brett Kerry and Mason Erla (and several others) look like minor league depth for the foreseeable future. A brief note on Caden Dana. While I think it very unlikely that he factors into the major league rotation this year, he's on the cusp of being a legitimately good pitching prospect and perhaps on the fast-track for the major leagues. His minor league debut was very impressive, but I'd like to see more before getting too excited.