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Rotation Depth Behind Shohei Ohtani is Critical for the Angels 2022 Campaign and Beyond Author Note: Due to the wildly active free agent market leading into the CBA expiration date, things moved so fast that the author decided to keep the original write-up of this installment of the Primer Series and simply strike-out or slightly modify content to reflect the multiple free agent signings over the last week. Rotation help, particularly in the front-of-the-rotation, is clearly the Angels greatest need and has been for some time. The addition of Syndergaard, while adding some level of risk, is a nice step forward. Picking up back-end depth, by signing Lorenzen, builds depth and can set the stage for a potential trade, but Minasian is almost certainly not done. Fortunately, for the Halos, there are some premium arms available in free agency and, perhaps even more importantly, some of these starters could possibly be had on a short-term contract (hint, hint Arte). Additionally, the trade market has some options as well, some also short-term. Free agent names (age in 2022 season in parentheses) of particular interest include: Max Scherzer (37) Noah Syndergaard (29) Carlos Rodon (29) Robbie Ray (30) Justin Verlander (39) Zack Greinke (38) Kevin Gausman (31) Marcus Stroman (31) Koudai Senga (29, if posted) Alex Wood (31) Jon Gray (30) Eduardo Rodriguez (29) Jose Urena (30) Alex Cobb (34) Certainly there are other starters available, but these are the names that have a track record of success, the pedigree, and/or the potential to pitch closer to the top, than the bottom, of the rotation. Those that are struck-out have already signed since the author first penned this part of the Primer Series (boy this market moved fast in the week leading up to the CBA expiration!). Scherzer, Syndergaard (signed!), Verlander, and Greinke strike me as the type of guys the Angels would more likely target this offseason, simply because they all may be willing to sign for no more than two years, which would fit an aggressive financial push by Moreno, if Arte does significantly exceed the CBT threshold for the first time since 2003. Noah may seem odd, here, but he is coming off of Tommy John Surgery (TJS) and, whether the Mets do or do not make him a Qualifying Offer, he may be willing to sign a soft 1-2 year pillow contract to re-establish his value (and, of course, he did!). Beyond that group, the remainder contain a mix of established names. Perhaps the most interesting one is Carlos Rodon who had a breakout season in 2021, although he had some injury concerns near the end of the year. Rodon was actually the best starter, on a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) per Innings Pitched (IP) (WAR/IP) basis last year, out of the available free agents (even better than Scherzer). He, too, may be willing to sign a 1-year pillow contract to re-establish his health on the open market. Carlos Rodon 2021 Statcast Percentile Ranking Also here is Rodon’s Statcast player similarity profile, showing Scherzer (and Peralta, May, et. al.) as comparables: Carlos Rodon 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80) Also, Robbie Ray, who compares favorably, per Statcast, to Scherzer, Cole, Darvish, Nola, and Cease, was probably of interest to the Angels front office before he inked a deal with the Mariners: Robbie Ray 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80) Additionally, if Koudai Senga is posted, he would be a potentially interesting and possibly more affordable arm. Of course, Marcus Stroman, who has effused his admiration for Mike Trout, could be a target. The other names could eat innings and have certain characteristics that will attract a host of suitors. One name the Angels are quite familiar with is Alex Cobb, who could potentially be extended or resigned. He compares favorably to two other interesting starters, German Marquez and Luis Castillo: Alex Cobb 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80) The trade market is more difficult to pin down, but it seems very plausible Minasian could go this route, in addition to free agency. As was mentioned near the Trade Deadline, this year, SP Max Meyer’s name popped up as part of a proposed Marlins deal that fell through, potentially involving Brandon Marsh, so he could still be a target (or not, since the Angels didn’t go for it, mid-season). In fact, Minasian could pick up a combination of starters out of both free agency (two already!) and trade, for an additional premium arm, increasing team depth in the rotation and using any spare starters out of the bullpen. Other trade targets of interest might include names like Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Shane Bieber, Max Fried, Tyler Mahle, Antonio Senzatela, Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, and/or Pablo Lopez. On the prospect side, the Angels might be able to find a name like the aforementioned Max Meyer, along with others, like Matthew Liberatore, Daniel Espino, Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Aaron Ashby, Jhoan Duran, and Nick Lodolo, among others. Perry Minasian will have to be very mindful about team payroll when considering the various names in free agency and trade. For reference, as discussed on MLBTradeRumors.com, Justin Verlander, entering his age 37 season, signed a 2-year deal for $66M based on a 2019 6.4 WAR campaign, so Max Scherzer, heading into 2022 at age 37 coming off a 5.4 WAR effort, will probably pull in a larger contract (and, in fact, he pulled in an AAV record-breaking 3-year, $130M deal from the Mets!). This essentially means, based on the Finances Section of this Primer Series, that signing a guy like Max will eat up most of the available payroll, creating a quandary for both Minasian and Moreno; putting increasing pressure on the latter, to open up the wallet, further. The bottom line is that the starting pitching staff can, should, and will be reinforced this offseason. Despite the Syndergaard, Lorenzen, and Loup signings, the Angels currently have a little over $20M to work with, barring a yet-to-be-seen Moreno push over the Luxury Tax, but that should be enough to get at least one of these names to add to the staff. Remember that there are permutations to this offseason that Minasian and the Angels front office see a lot more clearly than fans. It could be free agent signings and/or trades, but if you sign 2-3 starters from free agency, you can probably package up 1-2 top prospects along with one or more other players/prospects and trade for another starter, i.e. addition by subtraction (numbers!). For example, it might be signing Syndergaard and Stroman, then dealing Detmers, Marsh, and Barria for a guy like Luis Castillo. The combinations are out there, it is just a matter of finding one that makes sense for the team.

2021 Marked 50 Years of Angels Baseball - Time to Throw a Fancy Party? So, before we dive into the numbers, we need to have a discussion about the approved payroll number that Angels owner Arte Moreno provides to General Manager (GM) Perry Minasian. As the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher reminded me recently, that number Moreno provides is not transparent, it could include or not include player salaries, player benefits, Minor League player salaries, non-guaranteed salaries, the cost of a Pepsi or Coca-Cola out of the clubhouse vending machine, yacht fuel, etc. The point is that we, as fans, do not know, so determining how much payroll the Angels have available for the upcoming season is not entirely clear. The current 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), clearly states the following regarding ‘Actual Club Payroll’: This definition simply means that player benefits (part (a)) plus player salaries (part (b)) plus any player salaries outrighted to a Minor League club (part (c)), constitute ‘Actual Club Payroll’. In principle, you would think that Arte’s official payroll number he gives to his GM, for each season, would include these three core components dictated in the CBA, but we have no idea if Moreno is accounting for player benefits or outright assignments, outside of that guidance, or if it is included. There is just no way to know. So, based on that, Angelswin.com will, here in this Series, report the accounting, per the CBA, by adding player benefits to ‘Actual Club Payroll’, which will simply be player salaries plus player benefits (we have no outright assignments, currently, to add). Additionally, we will place a second column for the calculation of Average Annual Value (AAV), which will determine the payroll number used for the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT, also known as the ‘Luxury Tax’) total, based on the Halos current 26-man roster plus Minor League salaries and pre-arbitration call-ups, minus the following impending free agents (Note: One or more of these names could be re-signed): Kurt Suzuki Dylan Bundy Steve Cishek Alex Cobb AJ Ramos Dexter Fowler Juan Lagares Jose Iglesias Below is that approximation, which includes the recent free agent signing of Noah Syndergaard and, also, reliever Aaron Loup: First of all, the arbitration numbers for Max Stassi, Mike Mayers, Tyler Wade, and Phil Gosselin (in italics), were obtained from the MLBTradeRumors.com Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2022 article. Although these numbers are estimates, this annual series has proven consistently accurate. It should also be noted that the Angels do not have to tender an arbitration offer, they can simply release one or more of these four names, letting the player in question enter free agency. Secondly, the Halos have no players on outright assignments, nor do they owe money to a player that is no longer on the team (thankfully, Pujols’ contract is off the books). Finally, the author has made the following financial assumptions: League minimum salary for 2022 is $600,000 Player Benefits are $16,000,000 Estimated Minor League salaries are $2,435,000 Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players are $3,000,000 To make things easier, moving forward, Angelswin.com will presume that the ‘Actual Club Payroll’ number, will consist only of player salaries, nothing else, despite the fact we reported it correctly, per the 2017-2021 CBA. This contradicts the language in the CBA, but without better information, such as knowing what components constitute Moreno’s payroll number, we are grasping at straws. So, instead of $169,550,000, per CBA accounting, we will use the base player salaries, totaling $153,550,000 as our starting point for determining how much Minasian has to spend the remainder of this offseason. Bottom line is that we will compare projected total salaries to our best-guess estimate of Moreno’s official payroll number he gives to Minasian. Last year, the team ended the season with an actual team payroll of $182M and an AAV of just under $200M. Based on historical spending, expect team owner Arte Moreno to maintain a robust actual payroll that stays under the CBT threshold. Presuming a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) maintains an ever-increasing CBT threshold (this could definitely change), actual team payroll should correspondingly increase from $182M in 2021 to $185M-$195M in 2022. For the purposes of the 2022 Angelswin.com Primer Series, we will assume Arte Moreno authorizes an actual team payroll of $190M for the 2022 season. This number could go up or down, but represents an educated estimate despite what could be an unusually aggressive offseason. Based on that historically-based assumption, and taking our projected total player salaries and estimate of $190M to spend, this leaves approximately $36.45M in actual team payroll operating space for General Manager (GM) Perry Minasian to work with for the remainder of 2022. When you take into consideration that the Angels will likely keep a reserve of payroll available, leading into the Trade Deadline, this number likely drops a few million, to $27M, give or take. For the purposes of the 2022 Angelswin.com Primer Series, we will assume the Los Angeles Angels have $27M remaining, to spend, in free agency (FA) or trade. It should be noted, again, that if the Angels do not retain one or more of their remaining four arbitration-eligible players, that number could increase to as high as $31.7M. There are, however, some potential, mitigating monetary factors to consider, regarding this upcoming offseason, that should be discussed. The first item is the aforementioned, potential, new CBA. The current CBA is set to expire December 1st, 2021. MLB and the players union are currently negotiating to either implement a new CBA or, more remotely, extend the current CBA. If they cannot reach a consensus on either of those two options, baseball could come to a standstill, possibly resulting in an owner and/or labor strike. Both sides probably want to avoid the latter, but there have been some contentious negotiations and discussions, so nothing is promised. Notably this debate has accelerated a lot of offseason transactions prior to the CBA expiration date, rather than delaying them after a new basic agreement has been settled. This aggressive set of transactions feels both player- and club-driven, because the former want to lock-in something for 2022, even if the season is abbreviated due to a player strike, and the latter are, collectively, flush with available payroll, necessitating the need to spend, even if a strike occurs for a lengthy period of time, as a result of a breakdown in talks. One part of these negotiations, that was leaked to the media and could impact the Halos offseason, is the idea of lowering the CBT threshold to $180M and raising the penalty tax for exceeding it and creating a minimum team spending floor. It is the former that may throw a wrench into the Los Angeles Angels financial planning and spending because if the current CBT threshold moves from $210M down to the suggested, proposed, $180M level, that will further constrain team spending, based on Arte Moreno’s penchant for not exceeding the Luxury Tax. If that new Luxury Tax threshold is implemented, and staying under is what Arte directs, Perry Minasian will likely have no more than a maximum of $5M to allocate the remainder of the offseason, presuming the aforementioned Trade Deadline reserve, as noted above. This is now the point where we bring up the second mitigating factor in this payroll calculus. In recent weeks, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Manager Joe Maddon have made remarks about the need for the team to spend and improve the Angels odds to win next season. It should be very concerning to Arte Moreno that the two best players on the team have so vocally expressed their opinion on the state of the franchise. If this issue is not addressed it could lead to Shohei Ohtani leaving the team for FA after the 2023 season, which, quite frankly, would be an unmitigated disaster. Additionally, Mike Trout could grow frustrated and ask to be traded, too, which would also be an unmitigated disaster. This may force Arte Moreno to take more drastic financial action this offseason. If you assume that any new or extended CBA retains the softer Luxury Tax penalties for teams that go over the CBT threshold for no more than two years (the penalties increase significantly on the third year and beyond, currently), now may be the time (and the author has been wrong about this in previous seasons) that Arte Moreno decides to open up a no-more-than, 2-year increased financial window for the Halos. In fact, if a new CBA is implemented and the aforementioned lower CBT threshold ($180M) is instituted, Moreno will likely have no choice but to go over it, if he wants to avoid player morale issues. Additionally, Arte and Minasian may have an inside track on CBA negotiations where, for example, they feel the current CBA may be extended an additional year or two while negotiations proceed toward a new CBA. Once the CBA situation works itself out, we, the fans, will know more, but this offseason may prove to be a pivotal point in franchise history, forcing Arte to go big or risk losing one or both of the teams greatest superstars, not only in the history of the Los Angeles Angels franchise, but in Major League Baseball history, as well. Collectively, it is doubtful that anyone in the Angels organization or the fans want this to happen, but history is chock full of stupid decisions, like Babe Ruth to the Yankees. It is because of these two, potential, mitigating factors that our assumed team payroll of $190M might be the wrong number. Presuming, again, that the relative structure of the CBT base tax surcharge levels do not change and the Base Tax Threshold is the same as 2021 ($210M), Moreno could (and again, historically, he has never even sniffed this) authorize a major increase to Actual Club Payroll, up to a maximum of $210M or, if he gets truly ambitious and jumps into the 1st Surcharge Rate, a maximum of $230M, based on how aggressive he feels. Also, to be clear, IF Arte does this, he will likely clearly instruct Minasian to bring the team back below the CBT threshold by the end of 2023, in order to avoid the truly severe surcharge rates that are detailed in the currently implemented CBA (and may change in a new CBA!), which means that any significant expenditures in FA, or for trade acquisitions, would likely be for no more than two years in length. Ultimately, the front office has better visibility to ongoing CBA negotiations, but it will be interesting to see what the new CBA offers and the related impacts to every team across MLB, particularly the Halos. This CBA discussion will be important for long-term financials as well. Upton’s contract comes off the books after 2022, leaving some room for a longer-term free agent signing, internal extension candidate, or higher-salaried trade target. However, all of the pre-arbitration players on the current 40-man roster and those yet to be added, will begin to significantly impact payroll starting in 2025, based on probable Major League service time accumulated. Now, certainly, Minasian can and will trade players away and manage the total payroll number, possibly moving guys like Barria, Suarez, or Junk, for instance, so this is likely not a major concern, but 2025 and 2026 will be significant arbitration seasons. So, expect the Angels to retain their major stars while selectively moving other pieces in trade, to keep overall payroll steady, as they continue to build and maintain a contending team. This future payroll management could prove even more important if the CBT threshold is lowered in the next CBA. Oh and before I forget the other 800-pound elephant in the room, there is the fast-approaching decision to sign Shohei Ohtani to an extension contract, which, based on his recent comments about wanting to win, may or may not materialize if the Halos don’t get good, really fast. It should be noted that the front office can fit an Ohtani extension into long-term payroll and, when you consider the total value he brings, should be an absolute no-brainer proposition for Minasian. Perhaps, building a contender around a young Shohei, is a third mitigating factor that will push Arte to break the bank or it may turn out to be his greatest mistake as owner of the team, only time will tell. Angelswin.com’s educated guess is that the Angels front office will aggressively pursue an Ohtani extension, it is the only prudent and sane thing to do. As always, the financial ball is in Arte’s hand, and, for better or worse, the financial and baseball decisions made this offseason will echo for years to come.

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer Note from Angelswin.com: Again, I am making a plea for support, to our family here at Angelswin.com, to provide any donation, even $1, to the AW.com sponsored charity-of-the-month, Hope for Education. If I have to go further, I am willing to take unnatural pictures by tdawg's bunk bed to encourage donations or, alternatively, not show them, at the whim of each individual member of the Angelswin.com family. I know times may be tough for many of you, but even a small donation helps toward a larger goal, so I am humbly requesting any kindness you can afford. Thank you for your time and attention! As we alluded to, in the Introduction article, Major League Baseball (MLB) has taken a financial hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Clearly the abbreviated season combined with a complete lack of in-person attendance at ballgames put a big financial hit on the game. Arte Moreno, himself, indicated revenues came in well short of projections. This financial impact is not insignificant and the likelihood that 2021 will take a similar hit is high. Why? Well, let us just talk it out here. Assuming President-elect Biden takes office on January 20th and, in a likely scenario, puts the country on a 30-60-day lockdown (or some hybrid mask requirement), that would immediately place us in early-to-late March. From there, a probable phased opening of non-critical businesses would take place, not dissimilar to what happened in 2020. Basically, a larger subset of businesses would open and the country would test the COVID-19 stress level on the population. If cases return at a rate higher than expected that would have a very negative impact on any proposed baseball season. However, if the reemergence is successful, stadium play, likely in a limited form, could potentially take place later in the year. Think, absolutely no more than 50% stadium capacity (probably less) in what would likely be another abbreviated regular season. Note this is probably the most optimistic scenario. There is a high likelihood that even if the country successfully reopens that pandemic experts and scientists will almost certainly recommend that large gatherings do not occur within a several month period, even after a clean societal reemergence. The bottom line is that 2022 will be financially rocky for the country and MLB, which will almost certainly result in low to medium attendance, at best, and possibly another shortened baseball season, based on what MLB decides, and is even allowed to do, in a continuing COVID-19 pandemic environment. It could be a 162-game, televised-only, season or some mashup of televised-only and in-person attendance games, ranging anywhere above 60 games. Basically more significant financial impacts to baseball, which brings us to the Los Angeles Angels financial situation. Here is a rough snapshot of the projected Angels 2021 payroll situation as of December 7th, 2020: Table 1 - 2021 Los Angeles Angels Projected Payroll The Angels current Average Annual Value (AAV) payroll sits at about $181M, which is $29M below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $210M for 2021. This is in-line with what FanGraphs RosterResource.com and Spotrac.com show, as well. The arbitration salaries, in Table 1, were pulled, as usual, from MLBTradeRumors.com yearly Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2021 series, this year utilizing Method #3 numbers. Does this mean the Angels can spend $29M? Based on the current economic environment in baseball and the likelihood of another COVID-19-impacted season, the answer may be no. First of all most teams keep some sort of reserve cushion of payroll space to start off each season in order to maintain flexibility heading into the Trade Deadline. For the Halos that will likely be about $10M or so, automatically lowering their available payroll space down to $19M. Moreno’s history shows a trend of modest payroll increases year-to-year, keeping pace with a rising CBT threshold but nothing more or less. During new GM Perry Minasian’s live interview at Angels stadium, Arte did clearly state payroll would not go down, but offered little more. Based on this we will presume the Angels have $19M to spend this off-season for the purposes of the Primer Series, possibly more if the Angels target one or more of Moreno’s aforementioned “impact” players. Also you can clearly interpret the Angels recent non-tender of several Angels relievers as a sign the Angels will probably be fiscally conservative in 2021, based on the notable impacts to the U.S. economy and MLB. The trade for Jose Iglesias, as an addition by subtraction scenario, in conjunction with the Halos moves to kick Hansel Robles, Matt Andriese, Justin Anderson, Keynan Middleton, and Hoby Milner to the curb, will keep the payroll effectively neutral. As a lone counterpoint, the Angels, just today, executed a trade for RP Raisel Iglesias, who is slated to receive $9.125M in 2020, adding a substantial amount to the payroll, reducing the total projected available payroll space by about 25%. It is not just the Angels, either, as evidenced by the Indians placing Brad Hand on waivers (and subsequently releasing him), the Reds trading Raisel Iglesias to the Halos, and the apparent financially-strapped Phillies rumored to be shopping Zack Wheeler. Even perfectly viable free agents that you would expect to pursue multi-year deals, such as Robbie Ray, Drew Smyly, Marcus Stroman, and Kevin Gausman, have selected one-year deals and/or accepted the Qualifying Offer, rather than test a clearly weak free agent market for players. This simply means that the Halos are likely to stay within a tight range of $19M. Certainly, Arte can choose to go up or down but, again, history does not support the notion of a spending spree and internal and external economic factors make it much less likely to happen. As much as this off-season might be a prime opportunity for Moreno to exercise the teams financial muscle for a short 1-2 year period, this year is proving to be the most unlikely year in recent history for him to do it. Only time will tell the tale. One final note regarding MLB and financial expenditures. Despite the clear hits teams are taking due to the pandemic shutdown, there appears to be a collective move by MLB and the owners to take advantage of the situation, making deep cuts to Minor League Baseball (MiLB) team franchises, effectively depressing 2021 arbitration and free agent salaries via these declarations of being in a financial crunch, and cutting out wide swaths of front office personnel and MiLB players. As an outsider looking in, this seems, to me, to be a self-destructive attitude in a business that makes so much money according to Forbes and other publications. Clearly local revenues, which are a main contributor to individual team revenues, have taken a hit due to non-existent ticket sales in a shortened season but the extensive cuts feel deeper than needed. When you look at the numbers it is clear that not playing a full regular season with no ticket sales does result in large losses. However, a full regular season with, perhaps, at least 40% of a typical season’s in-person attendance would bring MLB, as a whole, to a break-even level, give or take. The point is that the latter (40% in-person attendance) is probably a less likely scenario based on our earlier discussion, thus MLB will probably struggle again in 2021 and the owners, even in the face of a fight with the Player’s Union, will probably look to make additional cuts when and where they want and can. The near-future of MLB is not particularly bright, so let’s hope cooler heads prevail and a compromise can be reached, not only in entertaining, at least, a full or partial, televised-only regular season, but also with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) and continued baseball for the next several seasons. MLB’s image is teetering on a tightrope with little room for error so they need to get this right.