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    Lou reacted to Chuck for a blog entry, All You Need To Know about the Los Angeles Angels Arizona Complex & Dominican Summer League Prospects   
    By Taylor Blake Ward, AngelsWin.com
    When taking a look at performances from the Dominican Summer League and Arizona Complex League, there is an obvious caveat about the variance in play. Pending the league, the ages can vary from 16-years-old to 21-year-olds in the Dominican and 18-years-olds fresh out of high school or out of country to 24-years-olds who have spent the last four or five years at some of the premier college programs in the nation. Most kids haven't grown into their bodies so power could be at a minimum. Some pitchers throw in the high 90's with explosive breaking pitches, while others hardly top the mid 80's with hardly any sign of a secondary offering. Hardly any pitcher has a strong feel for the strike zone, so on-base percentages are highly inflated due to the high number of walks. Performance numbers can be fun, but only when taken with a serious grain of salt.
    Quickly hitting on some performance indicators, we already talked about the inflation of walks and high on-base percentages. Offensively, you should be looking at contact rate and low strikeout-percentages for future indicators of offensive success from a solely performance-based merit. For pitchers, you're looking at strike-throwing ability (i.e., BB%, BB/9) as even with low walk numbers will come the raw package of hindered command. Control is a fine thing to see on paper and is usually something you will see prior to command in and out of the zone once coming stateside.
    With that out of the way, let's dive into some of the Angels minor leaguers who put together strong seasons in northeast Boca Chica or southwest Tempe, whether performance based or by scouting merit.
    Tapping into the record books, the Angels Dominican Summer League affiliate has been in existence since 1992, with three years as a shared affiliate and one year without play. Records only permit us to date statistics back to 2006, but five different players for the Angels this year broke into the top-10 of affiliate records with one appearing seven times while tying a record. Luis Torres saw one of the greatest seasons for the DSL Angels with his 156 wRC+ being only second to Alexi Amarista's 158 wRC+ in 2007. Among DSL Angels single-season records, Torres scored the ninth most runs (48), had the ninth most hits (68; most since Johan Sala hit 76 in 2016) had the fifth most runs batted in (40), had the fifth most total bases (113; the most since Eduardo Soto had 117 in 2008), hit the third most home runs (8; trailing only Luis Jimenez (11 - 2007) and Raddy Sierra (9 - 2007))
    Let's walk away from the statistical confusion and admire Torres the player who signed for $10,000 in February 2022. Already well developed physically at six-foot-three and 210 pounds with his arms filled out well, there is some present strength and power from the right side in Torres' offensive profile. He has a free and loose swing that will open up to allow him to get to his power on pitches away. He did a fine job of controlling the zone and sparsely chasing which led to low strikeout totals. There is the natural tendency of young players to over swing which leads to hitting the top of the ball and high groundball totals, which was a very natural defect to Torres' game and is one of the first focuses of development once stateside. There's feel for hitting and his ability to get to his power is a positive trait where he turned on the ball well and put together some regular triple-digit exit velocities. Defensively, there's a lot of unknown as Torres was an outfielder as an amateur but immediately moved to first base with very limited playing time in the corner outfield.
    The big international splash over the winter, Nelson Rada showed exactly why he signed for such a high dollar ($1.85 million) in January. Spending the entire season as a 16-year-old, Rada was one week shy of being the youngest player in professional baseball this year, with 10 others being born between August 24-31, 2005 (yikes, we are getting old). Going back to the record books, Rada posted a 148 wRC+, which was fourth best in DSL Angels history; he scored the sixth most runs (48) in a single-season (the most since Pedro Toribio scored 50 runs in 2011), and stole the third-most bases at 27, tied with Raul Linares and trailing only Ayendy Perez (41 - 2013) and Pedro Toribio (32 - 2011). Rada reached base in 44 of 50 games he played, all in center field. It's clear the Angels see Rada playing a premium position in center field where he is a plus defender who is quick and direct to the ball and comes equipped with an above-average arm and outstanding athleticism. More instinctual than an actual burner, Rada clearly knew what he was doing on the basepaths and has double-digit steal potential with only average to better speed. At the plate, Rada keeps things fairly simple from the left side looking for pitches in his zone to drive to the gaps. There is some over-the-fence power that could turn into average power when he fills into his compact frame. Despite his youth, Rada has already shown good control of the zone and has a strong idea of what he’s doing at the plate with a focus on getting on base with a balanced approach that leans more to aggression.
    The other big bonus baby over the spring came in Randy de Jesus, an outfielder who signed for $1.2 million. More physically driven than Rada, de Jesus put up his expected power numbers while lessening the concern of how much swing-and-miss would be included in his offensive profile. His 13 doubles were tied for the ninth most in a single-season for the affiliate, while his seven home runs were fourth most as well as his 43 runs batted in being fourth most in a single-season and the most since Samir Mendez hit 44 in 2011. More intangible based, de Jesus is a smart player who is a fair athlete and makes smart plays in the field and base paths. Not always getting to his separation and finding some grooves in his timing, de Jesus was still able to tap into his big-bodied natural strength and will have to work on getting to the ball quicker once coming stateside to tap into his above-average potential. Going 2-for-2 with a three-run home run, de Jesus was named the MVP of the Dominican Summer League All-Star game.
    On the pitching side, DSL Angels rotation was headlined by Sadiel Baro, a lean 17-year-old left-hander who signed for $125,000 out of Cuba. Baro worked his fastball up to 92 over the summer while flashing a swing-and-miss curve and changeup that allowed him to work against hitters on both sides of the plate. Baro was a workhorse, having the most innings pitched (53.0) since Jose Soriano (57.0) in 2016, with the third most strikeouts (60) since 2014. Manuel Cazorla, a 17-year-old left-hander from Venezuela, showed good feel for locating his fastball in the bottom part of the zone while flashing an average curveball and the ability to pitch inside. Nixon Encarnacion was the big-arm splash for the Angels over the winter due to his strong arm from the right side. Encarnacion works 91-95 with positive signs towards his secondary offerings, while his athleticism gives hope of above-average command down the road.
    Other notables: Outfielder Ramon Ramirez posted a 142 wRC+ while hitting the seventh most doubles (14) and eighth most runs batted in (37) in the affiliate’s history. Capri Ortiz is a 17-year-old defense-first shortstop who saw a tail of two seasons at the plate, having a .542 OPS with five extra-base hits in his first 26 games, while having a .793 OPS with nine extra-base hits in his final 26 games. Dario Laverde and Jonathan Linares, both 17-year-old catchers, matched each other in basic offensive and defensive statistics despite differing profiles, both posting a 124 wRC+ while throwing out 41% of runners. Laverde is an athletic backstop with a better chance at sticking behind the plate while Linares is a switch-hitter with more offensive upside to his game. Marco Vega is a soft-tossing right-hander from Panama who will work in the mid-to-high 80’s but has a great feel for the zone and a better feel for his changeup than most at his age.
    After focusing on much of Boca Chica, let’s take a trip north to Tempe where the Angels Arizona Complex League club fell two run short of a wildcard berth in their final game of the season with the tying run at the plate.
    Perhaps one of the biggest risers on prospect charts in the Angels system this year was Jorge Marcheco, a 20-year-old (turned 20 on August 6) Cuban right-hander who signed last September for $350,000. After throwing a statistical no-hitter and near perfect game in three games with the DSL affiliate in 2021 (retired 27 of 28 batters with 20 strikeouts, only one to reach base was via a hit by pitch), Marcheco didn’t see the same dominance in Arizona (though who would expect that?) but still put together a solid showing for the year while encroaching on some affiliate records. In his 50.2 innings, Marcheco struck out 76 batters, the sixth most in affiliate history and most since 2009. Marcheco works mostly 89-93 with his fastball while incorporating a swing-and-miss curve and changeup/splitter that he can manipulate. There’s a limited ceiling to his game but he has backend of the rotation kind of stuff with present command indicators he could reach that ceiling.
    No one made as loud a presence at the start of the Angels development season as Walbert Urena, an 18-year-old Dominican right-hander. Hitting 100 in his stateside debut, Urena was a surprising unknown in prospect circles who despite being a six-figure signing in March 2021 ($140K). The triple digits didn’t come as common over the full season but there was plenty of arm strength and velo to dream on as he worked mostly off of his fastball that ranged 95-97. His secondaries have some progressive signs though are identifiable out of the arm, with his changeup being the better of the pair and his slider being inconsistent and rarely flashing more than average. He struggled to find the strike zone and lagged in fastball command but a solid athlete there are hopes he can work around the zone with that heat. Undersized at six-foot, it’s likely he will be a premium velo reliever type.
    Caden Dana received the highest bonus ever among players taken after the 10th round in the bonus pool era at $1.4975M and the initial returns show that record bonus was well earned. Though he got limited time after the draft, the New Jersey prep arm had back-to-back scoreless outings – both two innings each – to kick off his pro career and ended his summer in a do-or-die game where he allowed one run over two and two/third innings. It’s too small a sample to really rely on any of his performance numbers, but the reports indicate he was able to hold what he showed during his prep season and showcase summer going into his senior year. Working mostly with a two-pitch mix, Dana will work in the low 90’s mostly but has been upwards of 95-96. The fastball is his primary weapon currently as he shows enough command of it to play with it around the zone and elevate in late counts, though it is hittable due to its minimal movement. Dana also has a high-spin curveball that he has struggled to locate but the pitch at raw is an above-average offering and will only improve with command. A project in every sense, Dana is a big-bodied kid at six-foot-four with athleticism and physicality whose strength and arm speed should be able to keep him as a starter through development. There’s a high ceiling to be tapped into but it won’t be an overnight miracle and he could be set for a lengthy development.
    It's rare for a 19-year-old rookie ball reliever to garner much attention, but Sandi Charle’s on mound improvement have made him an intriguing arm in the lower tiers of the Angels system. Tall and lean like an NBA shooting guard, Charle has long limbs and comes at you with size and aggression but has shown much better body control which aided to his strike-throwing improvements. His breaking ball has good velo and shape and can be a swing-and-miss pitch as it plays off of his low 90’s fastball with deception. He’s a relief only type but one to monitor.
    After three years at Texas-Rio Grande Valley and a brief stint in Indy Ball, Christian Sepulveda signed with the Angels in April. Splitting time between Arizona and High-A Tri-City, Sepulveda was an elder statesman who performed well in Arizona posting a 146 wRC+ with five home runs, among the most total over the last half decade. Spending most of his time at shortstop as an amateur, Sepulveda played the corner infield for the year. He’s organization depth but put together a notable performance in 2022.
    Signing the same day as his island counterpart Marcheco, Anthony Scull came to the Angels for $235,000 in September of 2021 and has turned a few heads in the process. The son of former Cuban baseball star and Olympian, Antonio, Scull has a swing reminiscent of his father with a closed stance, short load, and good bat speed. His season was limited to 13 games after initially starting the year in Boca Chica, and when in Arizona he displayed his offensive prowess hitting .306 with an .807 OPS. Focus will fall on the bat as he’s not as strong an athlete as other outfielders in the system, but a corner platoon bat could be in his ceiling. At just 18-years-old, the Angels have plenty of time with Scull.
    The top international signee from 2021 who came to the Angels for $2 million, Denzer Guzman kept his head above water through the course of the Arizona Complex season while his performance was moderately better than league average, but age relevancy and physical based numbers indicate it was better than the on-paper product. Guzman, 18, was able to hit for a 109 wRC+ with 11 doubles and three home runs in 192 plate appearances which is fine for a blossoming prospect younger than the core of the league. He’s still growing into his frame and more power can be expected though it is likely he’ll have below-average power. His feel for hitting and finding the barrel though will keep interest in seeing him as a potential everyday player, and in particular, his defensive traits. Playing at the premium position of shortstop where he played solely in the CPX, Guzman makes smart decisions in the field and had the quick feet to make regular and challenging plays at the position, supported by a strong arm. Prior to the Angels drafting Zach Neto, Guzman was the prospect seen as the most likely to stay at shortstop long term. Following the complex league season, he earned a promotion to Low-A Inland Empire where he’s expected to begin in 2023.
    After spending his debut pro season as a leadoff man in the Dominican, Jorge Ruiz picked up where he left off as the consistent leadoff man in Arizona where he outperformed himself upon coming stateside with a 122 wRC+ while making smarter decisions at the plate. A contact-focused hitter from the left-side, the 18-year-old outfielder was more aggressive at the plate which allowed him to stay in hitter’s counts and cut down his strikeout rate and SwSt% (14.1%) while adding some more intent to his swing despite still being an upper-body heavy and armsy swinger who has slap tendencies. There is limited to minimal over-the-fence power projection and he’s more set for the gaps and being a 20/30-grade power guy with instinctual baserunning due to his fringe-average speed. A solid athlete, Ruiz is a capable defender in center field and has some depth hopes.
    Other Notables: Originally assigned to Low-A Inland Empire, Jenrry Gonzalez was sent back to Arizona where he shined allowing two runs in 20.1 innings with five walks and 32 strikeouts. He’s a low velocity southpaw (87-89) with a decent breaking ball who is finesse-over-stuff. Not dissimilar to Gonzalez is Luis Viloria who is a strike-throwing machine but lacks a true secondary and operates in the mid 80’s. Similar to Gonzalez and Viloria but from the right side is Luis Nunez who has a high 80’s to low 90’s fastball with natural cutting action and a sweepy slider that allows him to work away from right-handers. Nunez allowed three runs in 27.1 innings. Though rehab is usually not notable, it is in the case of Jose Soriano who was once one of the Angels top prospects. Soriano, who was taken by Pittsburgh first overall in the Rule-5 Draft and returned over the winter, has struggled with health his entire career, but when healthy offers an explosive two-pitch mix from an athletic delivery. It was no different in his rehab appearances in Arizona where he sat 96-99 early in outings but fell to 93-96 after an inning. Soriano also has a 2700 RPM slider that has been a swing-and-miss weapon for him throughout his career. One last note on the pitching was Kenyon Yovan transitioning from the plate to the mound (again). A former draft prospect as a pitcher, the Angels signed Yovan (cousin of Keynan Middleton) as a first baseman who hadn’t pitched during his senior year at Oregon. Upon his return to the mound, Yovan has worked 93-96 with a workable breaking ball, and he has dominated since returning to the mound. Matt Coutney, the Angels 10th round selection in 2022, got his post-draft work done in Arizona where his pro debut which included a home run kept the intrigue while the following eight games were lackluster but too small a sample to lean on anything. Coutney is a power bat who is set for first base and maybe some short corner outfield time. Johan Macias had a loud offensive season, batting .322 with an .833 OPS that included 11 extra-base hits in 49 games. The top undrafted player for Arizona was Mason Holt from UL-Monroe who had just 16 games by the end of the season but justice in those games with a .296/.377/.389 slash and six stolen bases, while playing some solid defense in the outfield.
  2. Like
    Lou reacted to Chuck for a blog entry, MLB 2022 Amateur Mock Draft (Final) - By Taylor Blake Ward   
    By Taylor Blake Ward, AngelsWin.com Feature Writer
    The clock is now down to days before the first name in the 2022 MLB Draft is called. I’ve been gathering information from around the industry to put together my final in-detail mock draft for 2022, and will have a names only one coming just prior to the draft itself on Sunday at 4pm PT.
    You can read my first and only other mock for the year, Mock Draft 1.0, from HomePlateView.com from July 1, here
    As noted throughout, the top pick will dictate much of the first third of the draft. No one knows what Baltimore is doing with the first pick and won’t up until the name is called. As always, enjoy...
     
    1. Baltimore Orioles - Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (GA)
    The entire top of the draft hinges on Baltimore's selection and as record will stand, no one will know what direction Mike Elias and staff are going until just minutes before the selection or potentially even when the selection is made. There are still five names attached to this pick between Jones, Jackson Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee, and Kevin Parada. Everything will come down to price and value that permits them to execute the best use of their bonus surplus and set them up for their second, third, and ongoing picks through the course of the first two days of the draft. Jones is viewed, although not by consensus, as the top player in this draft and may have enough of a gap between the potential "money-saving picks" of Johnson, Lee, and Parada to still merit the top selection and allow Baltimore to swing a talent to their second and third picks at 33 and 42. I believe that if Jones is not the selection, it will be at a reduced deal with Lee, or a very slightly reduced deal with Holliday, with a target on one of the upper-tier arms that suffered injuries over the spring with their next pick.
    2. Arizona Diamondbacks - Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK)
    Much less held to secrecy, Arizona's hopeful scenario is that Baltimore passes on Jones, and he is available for them. They don't view Holliday as a consolation prize though as he is seen as their second priority to Jones.
    3. Texas Rangers - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)
    Similar to Arizona, Texas will have hopes that Baltimore passes on Jones and Holliday with the chance one is at hand here, with Holliday being the more likely scenario. If not, it seems this pick is down to Kevin Parada and Elijah Green, who had a strong showing during a workout at Globe Life Field.
    4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
    It seems this pick is down to a trio if the top three go accordingly, with Lee, Johnson, and Cam Collier in the mix. Lee and Collier continue to gain traction here with Johnson staggering just behind though I wouldn't rule him out. An underslot deal with Cole Young has started to gain some headwind.
    5. Washington Nationals - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
    Once again, pending the outcome of the first pick, the third selection may dictate what happens here between Parada and Jacob Berry based upon who Texas takes and whether or not Parada is available.
    6. Miami Marlins - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (GA)
    This pick seems less likely determined by the top pick as it does by the fourth. Though college bats come up more often here and this would be the apparent floor for Parada, I still think Johnson is near the top of their board. If Pittsburgh does swing for Collier instead of Lee and neither are underslot options for the first pick, I believe Lee lands here. If Texas gets one of Jones or Holliday and Washington opts for Green or Berry over Parada, I believe this is his final outcome (I give these scenarios as alternates since the top of the draft has so many potential outcomes that intertwine together). In this scenario, neither Lee or Parada are available and that would lead to Johnson. I mentioned in my previous mock that Berry could have his ceiling here, though I see Johnson and others above him here. Another option gaining steam over the last week, though I’m not biting on the smoke, is that Miami may go down the board a bit and underslot one of the upside prep arms like Dylan Lesko.
    7. Chicago Cubs - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL)
    Collier and Johnson have both been long attached to Chicago, with Collier being the preference so it could be a dream scenario for Chicago to get one of their favored bats. There's always a strong chance someone does something unique in the first handful-or-so picks with underslot deals for teams who have supplemental picks, but it seems the seven mentioned here and before are going to be the first seven picks of the draft. If Collier or Johnson is gone, I could see this being the final landing spot for Lee to fill out to top seven. College bats like
    8. Minnesota Twins - Jacob Berry, 1B/OF, Louisiana State
    Returning quickly to the alternate scenarios, the perceived top seven talents are going in the top seven picks of this mock. By Sunday afternoon, there is just as strong a chance one of them falls out of the first seven selections as there is they all land within that range. There's no guarantee, but I would bet that someone mentioned above this will be available over the next two picks and ripe for the taking. That could leave Minnesota (and Kansas City right after this) in a holding pattern awaiting a potential faller. Back to this mock reality (fun oxymoron that I had to include), I've heard Minnesota on college bats. Berry and Gavin Cross lead the charge.
    9. Kansas City Royals - Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
    After trading the 35th selection in the draft, Kansas City's bonus pool fell by just over $2.2M and went from the fourth largest to their ninth. It likely won't do too much altering with their first selection but it does hinder the chance of landing one of the priority picks in they do fall far enough -- Green in particular. This is the first legitimate underslot bet I've been hearing for some time and actually believe may be a reality between Brock Porter, Brandon Barriera, and Justin Crawford, though I'm hesitant to go Crawford for the diminished bonus and a strong potential suitor with a large bonus pool in the teens (see below). It's also the first place I've heard any pitcher's name tossed in and feel they'll be the first to pull the plug.
    10. Colorado Rockies - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
    I've been told for weeks by multiple industry sources that this is the floor for Berry. When one person says it, it's a poor rumor, but when multiple people say it, it has merit. There's a chance he falls here, but if he's gone, I believe it will be Cross or Porter.
    11. New York Mets - Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard St Mary's HS (MI)
    With two picks in the teens separated by only two picks between, the Mets have cast a wide net on potential suitors. Crawford has been attached here for a long time and I believe if they like him enough, they could swing him to either pick with their large bonus pool. The Mets have played the draft backwards in the past by taking two underslot deals early and landing their bigger fish with a later pick (i.e., 2019: Brett Baty, Josh Wolf, Matt Allan), though that was without the excess of two high picks and leads me to believe they'll play this draft more straightforward. Pending their confidence in what the Tigers and Angels will do, I see them going upside with their first pick and top of their board with the second. Jett Williams is a name of interest for either pick.
    12. Detroit Tigers - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
    Up until the last week, I believed this would be the floor for Jace Jung with very slight risk the Mets would take him ahead of this. Detroit was full hands-on deck for Jung late in the season and I still wouldn't rule it out. But, I have it on good authority, almost to guarantee, that Detroit has pivoted heavily towards Prielipp who impressed during scouted bullpens and at the MLB Draft Combine, and he is set to be the first college arm off the board.
    13. Los Angeles Angels - Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (FL)
    As this is an Angels Community Fansite & blog, there will be more reader emphasis on the Angels selection due to its paramount readership. As a caveat, it doesn't alter anything to the entirety of the mock and will go according to the information given. I have brash confidence that the Angels will take a pitcher here. Few pitchers, if any, will be selected ahead of them which gives the Angels their most desired arm and surplus to pick from. To my understanding, they have narrowed down who they believe is the top college and prep arm to Gabriel Hughes and Brandon Barriera and will be selecting between the two. The debate of who lingers behind them tends to fall to Justin Campbell on the college side and Robby Snelling on the prep, while Cade Horton and Lesko may be enticing. Kumar Rocker has had rumors in this range, though I'm leery on the Angels being among that group based on some internal comments. It will be noted here as opposed to later: whoever takes Rocker will plausibly have a gameplan of getting him to the big leagues as a reliever by September while in the hunt for the playoffs or impending a roster spot in the postseason. Postscript: belief is that the Angels will not take twenty pitchers with twenty picks.
    14. New York Mets - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
    Once again going to the Mets and their creativity, this pick and the one they hold ahead of this have so much variance that plenty can alter between the two and it's a crapshoot as to trying to access what they will do. I do believe that if Crawford is available the Mets would try and swing him here as opposed to at 11 due to how the Tigers and Angels picks are being conceived, and they would target a college bat with their first pick. Instead, with him unavailable, I see them going to the top of their board with my idea being that it is a college bat and Susac being the frontrunner. One name that continues to come up around the teen picks and even prior is Lesko who was seen as the top arm in this class before having Tommy John surgery this spring. Again, there's no dead set feeling here but I could see the 11 and 14 picks being swapped multiple ways with too many players involved to feel any bit of confidence about New York.
    15. San Diego Padres - Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath HS (TX)
    Speaking of Lesko, everyone and their mother will believe he's a perfect fit for A.J. Preller and the Padres. I have it on good faith that San Diego is taking a hitter here, but I too am wary of Lesko being available and not being the pick. Of the hitters I've heard mentioned here, Crawford gains the most traction with Jett Williams and Cole Young right behind, with Williams getting the slight nod.
    16. Cleveland Guardians - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
    Cleveland shied away from their standard draft model last year with Gavin Williams, only slightly, where they focus on youth for the
    class and upside. With that, I could see Crawford, Barriera, or Williams going here and gives me pause on them taking Cole Young. A late rumor I heard as of writing this mock is that Cleveland has hopes of a particular falling talent getting to them in Jung who has rumors of falling down towards the 21st pick, while also having suitors from 8-14, though I don't believe the Mets would take him with either of their picks. Drew Gilbert and Chase DeLauter also seem to be candidates. With Lesko still on the board, I'm once again wary of Cleveland passing.
    17. Philadelphia Phillies - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
    Another late rumor I heard while writing this mock is how deep Philadelphia ran in to see Gabriel Hughes during the late stages of the season. I've heard mixed reports on Philadelphia and while keeping things honest, don't have a strong feel for the direction they will go. My belief is that they'll take an arm here and though I'm somewhat confident in the general demographic they'll target I'm much less confident in who that will be. Plenty of teams in this range are interested in Lesko and he could even work his way into the top ten.
    18. Cincinnati Reds - Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA)
    It might be a pipedream, but I don't think it's out of the realm for Cincinnati to get who they see as the top arm in the class. If Lesko is taken earlier and the Angels go with Hughes, I think this would be Barriera's floor. Zach Neto is also mentioned here, as well as into the late top ten.
    19. Oakland Athletics - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison
    College bat here with some options between DeLauter, Beavers, Drew Gilbert, and Jacob Melton; among others including previously selected.
    20. Atlanta Braves - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
    College arms are the talk with Atlanta, and they should have a reserve to pick from. Hughes -- who is believed to not make it past this pick with confidence -- and Campbell are the most common names that come up here. Running back to the trade with Kansas City, I'm curious to see what Atlanta does with the extra $2.2M+ in allotted bonus pool funds. I'm not certain it will alter this pick as much as it will their next, but with the rumors of Horton's bonus demands, it would make sense that they could be getting some extra bank for someone like him, and he seems to be solidly in their mix.
    * I said it in my last mock, and I think it bears repeating: Expectation is that there will be a run of college bats that could start upwards of 19 and end somewhere around the start of the supplemental round. During that stretch, there will be players who are not college hitters taken. Mock drafts are an inexact science and are based on information granted by industry sources. At some point, you're going to be wrong while doing a mock, and I'd put big money on this run of college bats being quite different from the real outcome. After that grain-of-salt public service announcement, let's move on. *
    21. Seattle Mariners - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
    Another team with a broad mix of potential candidates, I'm hearing college for Seattle with no set direction on bats or arms. My best bet is Seattle sits and hopes for someone to fall, potentially Young who is still available. I believe this is the floor for Neto or Jung who could be the falling talent Seattle could be looking at. Gilbert is in play and is one of the top candidates for each of the next three picks. Other hitters here are the same as Oakland while the pitchers here are Hughes, Horton, or Connor Hjerpe.
    22. St. Louis Cardinals - Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma
    Sticking to my guns from the last mock. This is the first spot I've heard Graham's name attached and I was told to not be surprised by how high he goes. I also could see St. Louis taking a falling talent.
    23. Toronto Blue Jays - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee
    A lot of the same. Plenty of college bats in the mix, with Gilbert being the preferred.
    24. Boston Red Sox - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida
    I'm going to stick with college bats here, and any of the ones ahead fit. Among this group is Jordan Beck, though I am leery to Colorado trying to swing Beck towards their supplement picks, as they do have some interest in him with their 10th overall selection.
    25. New York Yankees - Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
    The Yankees have been keeping up with the Jones', Brock and Spencer. It's the first landing spot I've heard for either but there seems to be real smoke that could be a fire on either here. There is some noise to the Yankees looking at Mikey Romero of Southern California for their second-round pick.
    26. Chicago White Sox - Connor Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
    Hjerpe is more likely destined for one of the picks ahead of this where I mentioned that it won't strictly be college bats. His range is from 18 onwards. If Chicago went with a bat, I could see it being Melton or Toman.
    27. Milwaukee Brewers - Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State
    We've reached the throwing darts portion of the mock. I've heard pitching with Milwaukee, and they'll have plenty to choose from.
    28. Houston Astros - Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon State
    Sticking and probably ending with the run of college bats. No real connection here, just going with the gut.
    29. Tampa Bay Rays - Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union HS (OH)
    If you go back to my pick for the Braves, this is my secondary landing spot for Horton due to the same reasons mentioned: lots of bonus pool. There are so many directions the Rays can go, and it seems like every year they do something off the charts. Miller is the kind of arm they've shown interest in in the past, but I don't have any real connections for them either.
    30. San Francisco Giants - Dylan Beavers, OF, California
    San Francisco is another broad range team with their first selection, and it seems natural as we're at the end of the natural first round. They have been linked to high upside preps and solidified college hitters. I could see them taking one of the previously mentioned bats if one were to fall, or go directly to upside arms and take Snelling, Jackson Ferris, or even swing big on Rocker.
     
    SUPPLEMENTAL ROUND A
    31. Colorado Rockies – Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
    32. Cincinnati Reds – Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen HS (NV)
    33. Baltimore Orioles – Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina
    34. Arizona Diamondbacks – Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell
    35. Atlanta Braves – Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS (SC)
    36. Pittsburgh Pirates – Cole Young, SS, North Alleghany HS (PA)
    37. Cleveland Guardians – Blake Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee
    38. Colorado Rockies – Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City (Independent League)
    39. San Diego Padres - Henry Bolte, OF, Palo Alto HS (CA)
    Supplemental Notes: Colorado has some interest in Beck with their 10th pick and have the bonus pool to swing him down though I believe he'll go ahead of this. Toman, Snelling, and Young are all likely to go earlier in the first round, but someone will swing some tend talents to the supplement and second round; Young is the most interesting at Pittsburgh has a rumored under slot deal early in the draft. Rocker will go somewhere in the first round though no one seems to know where; my best bet is he files in between the college hitters.
  3. Like
    Lou reacted to Angelsjunky for a blog entry, 27 for Number 27: 27 Amazing Trout Stats (#21-23: OPS, wRC+ and WPA)   
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    My apologizes for the two-month gap in this series--extenuating real-life circumstances (and no, I wasn't sick, but thanks for the concern!). Let's continue...
    #21: On-Base + Slugging Percentage
    Remember back in the 90s when OPS was the new-fangled stat that only stat-nerds were using? We’ve come along way  from there, with more sophisticated versions, but it was a starting point for looking at total hitting. Like most conventional statistics, it has limited utility historically as it doesn’t account for context. Despite that, Trout is one of only 7 players in major league history with 3,000+ PA to have a career OPS of 1.000 or higher—he’s exactly at that threshold, 7th all-time.
    #21a: Career OPS (3,000+ PA)
    Babe Ruth 1.164 Ted Williams 1.116 Lou Gehrig 1.080 Barry Bonds 1.051 Jimmie Foxx 1.038 Hank Greenberg 1.010 Mike Trout 1.000 Rest of the top 10: Manny Ramirez .996, Mark McGwire .982, Mickey Mantle .977.
    #21b: Career OPS+
    Adjusted OPS does account for context, so gives us a more accurate picture of Trout’s historical offensive value. If you’re not familiar with it, it is basically OPS adjusted for context (era, park), and represents a percentage over average (100). Trout ranks even higher:
    Career OPS+
    Babe Ruth 206 Ted Williams 190 Barry Bonds 182 Lou Gehrig 179 Mike Trout 176 Rest of the top 10: Rogers Hornsby 175, Mickey Mantle 172, Dan Brouthers 171, Joe Jackson 170, Ty Cobb 168.
    #22: Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)
    Let’s take it a step further, with one of my favorites: wRC+. If you’re not familiar with it, it is basically a different take on OPS+, but a bit more sophisticated--I see it as the best overall statistic for pure hitting value. 
    There are two ways to assess Trout's greatness via wRC+: career and through age 27. Career-wise, he's 6th all-time. Think about that: Trout's offensive out-put so far has been better, pound for pound, than every player in major league history except five: Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig, and Bonds. 
    Considering that Trout hasn't yet declined, it is more fair to compare him to other greats through age 27Attached is a chart that depicts both. 
    #23: Win Probability Added
    WPA, or Win Probability Added, isn't a well-known statistic beyond the inner sanctum of sabermetrics, but it offers another useful angle on Trout's greatness. Fangraphs describes it as a statistic that measures how much a player's action increased their team's odds of winning. Meaning, it takes into account the specific context of the plate appearance. It is based on a statistics called Win Expectancy ad unfortunately there is only data going back to 1974, but that's a large enough time-span to be relevant. As it is--like WAR--a cumulative stat, I'm only including through age 27 (he ranks #30 for all players 1974-present).
    WPA Through Age 27 (1974-present)
    Mike Trout 44.17 Albert Pujols 39.78 Tim Raines 31.88 Alex Rodriguez 29.73 Frank Thomas 29.16 Meaning, Trout--through age 27--has added more to his team's chances of winning than any other player in the last 46 years.

  4. Thank You
    Lou reacted to ettin for a blog entry, 2020 AngelsWin.com Primer Series: Introduction   
    By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    So I almost didn't write the series this year.
    A lot of things happened, one of which the company I worked for, Vector-Launch, unfortunately shut down in mid-August due to the loss of our primary financial backer, Sequoia. This was a real loss to me because that was the best damn job I ever had and likely will ever have the remainder of my career.
    It is rare that you find a position where you enjoy the work so much that you don't even feel like it is work, you have a supervisor that respects and mentors you, and you have fantastic relationships with virtually all of your coworkers to the point that they become family and you even hang out with them outside of work. Vector was all of that and it is a damn shame that it had to go.
    There are parallels to that situation with the 2019 Angels. The Halos, at the start of the season seemed locked in. Our new manager, Brad Ausmus, was at the helm and seemed to have a good grasp of how to manage the team and appeared to have the respect of the players. Most importantly the team seemed to gel well and the clubhouse atmosphere seemed loose and fun. However, as we are all aware, injuries, ineffectiveness, and a lack of leadership at the top ravaged the 2019 Angels team.
    Players like Matt Harvey and Cody Allen, larger ticket players Eppler signed on one-year deals in the off-season, failed to produce and were eventually cut. The Angels tragically lost Tyler Skaggs mid-season to a deadly concoction of opioids and alcohol. Justin Upton, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Rengifo, and Tommy La Stella all hit the Injury List (IL) at various points in the season creating a discontinuity in the field and lineup that was reflected in the Angels very poor win-loss record at the end of the year. These losses certainly added up to a recipe for disaster in Anaheim that seems, on the surface, difficult to overcome in 2020 and proved fatal to Brad Ausmus' tenure. Like Vector-Launch, they had to close it down.
    So, once again, it will be up to Billy Eppler in what could be his last year as General Manager, and the front office staff to set a path for success this off-season if the Angels will have a real chance at post-season play.
    One very bright point is the signing of future Hall of Fame candidate Mike Trout to a career-long extension at the beginning of the 2019 season. The Angels now have the premier player in baseball locked up and can rest easy knowing that he is the centerpiece to build the remainder of the team around as they look to contend in 2020 and beyond.
    Some of these pieces are already here. Despite Justin Upton's poor offensive performance in 2019, he is still signed for three more seasons making him a likely complimentary piece in left field for next year. Andrelton Simmons will be entering his final year of control and, barring a trade, will man shortstop again in 2020 with the possibility of an extension contract in his future. Kole Calhoun turned out to be a luxury the Angels couldn't afford in an off-season where they need a lot of starting pitching but fortunately, the Angels have Brian Goodwin to fill their right field need to start the season.
    Other complimentary players like Zack Cozart (if healthy), David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss, Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh, and Tommy La Stella should help fill one or more holes in the infield not called shortstop. Catcher may turn out to be a patchwork again manned by some combination of Max Stassi (who probably won't be ready to start the season), Anthony Bemboom, Kevan Smith, and perhaps one or more other, yet-to-be-acquired, backstops.
    Shohei Ohtani should be ready to pitch again, along with Andrew Heaney, giving the Angels a decent base to create a rotation with the likes of Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Dillon Peters, and possibly others like Felix Pena filling up the back-end of the starting five. However, it should be clearly noted that the free agent starting pitching market has some very attractive players that the Angels will almost certainly target to create a strong rotation for 2020.
    Our relief corps will probably contain names like Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles, Noe Ramirez, Cam Bedrosian, Luke Bard, Justin Anderson, Keynan Middleton, Jake Jewell, and Taylor Cole among potential others. In fact this group may be enough to rely upon for the 2020 season, making it one potential area that the Angels need not worry about this off-season in terms of expending resources.
    The rebuilding process in the Angels Minor League system has actually been underway for some time now. Eppler has been steadily building it up and there are some notable names that have joined or are on the verge of joining Trout in Anaheim.
    Potential stars like Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, along with contributing pieces like Luis Madero are making strides to join the big league club in 2020 or after. Adell in particular appears to be the closest to the Majors and is likely, based on Calhoun's option being declined, a call-up in the May/June time frame. Other potential contributors like Luis Pena (bullpen), Jahmai Jones (2B/OF), and Chris Rodriguez could accelerate fast if they have a productive start in 2020.
    The unexpected replacement of Ausmus with Joe Maddon and Moreno's recent comments that there will be an increase in payroll this off-season clearly points to a sea change and acceleration to push the Angels into a window of contention that many fans have been awaiting for a long time.
    Based on the groundwork laid to date, owner comments, and a largely new, but experienced, coaching staff, it seems highly probable that there will be at least one or more significant free agent signings and/or complimentary trades to help position the Angels to fight for a playoff spot in 2020. The Astros and A's still pose a significant threat in the Division but an improved Angels squad will make for a much more interesting race in the A.L. West.
    In terms of team needs, clearly the Angels need to add at least one top-of-the-rotation starter and likely an additional mid-tier type to create solid depth. Adding a high-quality defensive catcher, to compliment one of Stassi (likely), Smith (maybe), or Bemboom (unlikely), would be a nice add to receive all of those pitches from the revamped rotation. The infield will need to be reinforced, likely at the corners with third base a long-term strategic concern for Eppler. Right field will be open to competition with Jo Adell in the mix (and the future of the position) but likely only after the Angels retain the extra year of team control on him (thus the projected May/June call-up). Adding another reliever or two to the mix, even if they are waiver claims or Rule 5 picks, will add depth.
    The question will ultimately be how high will Moreno let Eppler spend? Is it a modest increase or something much more significant that would take us into Luxury Tax territory for the next two years? Will a poor free agent market in the 2020-2021 off-season drive spending now? What moves can be made in free agency and trade to strengthen the team? Can the team supplement from the Minors in key areas throughout the season to create the missing depth that recent Angels squads have lacked?
    All that and more in what is sure to be an active Angels off-season in the subsequent installments of the 2020 Angelswin.com Primer Series!
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