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ettin

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  1. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    This series will attempt to identify other potential front-line starters that the Angels can possibly trade for this off-season and we will start with the St. Louis Cardinals SP/RP, Carlos Martinez.
    Facts
    Contract Status - Signed thru 2021 on a 5-year, $50.5M ($10.1M AAV, 2017-2021) deal with two additional team option years for 2022 and 2023, for $17M and $18M, respectively, with $500,000 buyout's for each year. Controllable from his age 28 (2020) through his age 31 seasons, if both team options are exercised.
    Repertoire (2019 as a Reliever) - Four-Seam Fastball (30.3%, 96.6 mph), Slider (28.4%, 86.0 mph), Sinking Fastball (20.7%, 94.3 mph), and Change Up (18.5%, 88.1 mph)
    Statcast Information - Martinez has below average spin rates on his fastball and curve ball. However, his exit velocity has been in the mid-80's over the last five years (slightly above average) and his launch angle hovers at an average 6.3 degree angle which is what you would expect from a ground ball artist.
    Injury History Risk - Medium-High (Shoulder tendinitis, shoulder strain, right lat strain, right oblique strain, and strained rotator-cuff, all of which occurred across multiple seasons starting in the Minors)
    Three-Year History -

    It should be noted that in 2017, Carlos pitched as a starter, then in 2018, due to injury, he pitched in a starter/reliever hybrid role, and in 2019, also due to injury and a roster decision made by the Cardinals, he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen. If he returns to the rotation his velocity will likely decrease a tick or so, down to the 95 mph range, for his four-seam fastball (and, perhaps, his other pitches) in all likelihood.
    Clearly, Martinez excels at keeping the ball in the park as he holds a career 0.70 HR/9 rate and he is above average in keeping runners on-base with a career 75.9% LOB% (League average was 72.3% in 2019). Additionally, hitters have some difficulty in making quality contact as he holds a career .237 BAA (League average was .249 in 2019).
    Also here is Martinez' batted ball data:

    As you can see Carlos is a heavy ground ball pitcher, who carries a career 53.1% GB%. By limiting line drives and fly balls, he is able to mitigate some of the Hard% contact he gives up and lets the infield defense do their work. Additionally, the balls that are put into play are spread around the diamond with 73% of them going to the left side or up the middle, while the other 27% go to the right side (1B/2B/RF) of the mound.
    Why?
    So first of all, Martinez has expressed to the Cardinals that he would like to return to the rotation in 2020. With St. Louis recently signing Korean starter/reliever Kwang-hyun Kim, they now have the flexibility to either place Carlos in their rotation and move Kim to the bullpen or, alternatively, trade Martinez and slip Kim into his slot or even top prospect Alex Reyes, whom St. Louis had high hopes on before his rash of injuries.
    Additionally, the Cardinals need to improve their offense and many baseball beat writers have suggested they could add one or more impact bats. Names like Josh Donaldson for third base or a trade with the Indians for a superstar shortstop like Francisco Lindor have been proposed. This is important insofar that the Cardinals are already hovering at last year's Opening Day payroll and would likely want to free up a chunk of change in order to accommodate a move such as this, which makes a relatively expensive pitcher like Carlos a luxury St. Louis may not want to afford for the 2020 season.
    For the Angels, they clearly need a quality starting pitcher and Martinez, when he was running right in the rotation from 2014 to 2017, was posting FIP numbers in the low-to-mid 3's, with 50%+ GB% rates. Now that the Angels have a superior defensive alignment of Simmons, Rendon, and Fletcher at SS, 3B, and 2B, respectively, adding a starter like Carlos would be a solid move, full of potential goodness.
    On top of that Carlos' contract is not exorbitantly high, as he will make $11.7M for the next two years with an AAV of $10.1M per season. Then, once Pujols comes off the books, the Angels can make a decision on his first team option of $17M with a $500,000 buyout and then his second team option in 2023 for $18M, also with a $500,000 buyout.
    The risk for the Angels is Martinez' more recent rotator-cuff strain that relegated him, in-part, to the bullpen last season. However, the Halos are in the interesting position of potentially running out a six-man rotation due to Ohtani's health concerns, so this may be the perfect landing spot for Carlos to ease himself back into a starting role.
    Proposed Trade
    If the Cardinals are making a move for an impact bat at 3B or even SS, moving some salary will probably be important for St. Louis management. Additionally, the infield logjam might result in having to move Matt Carpenter in trade as well because he is not a good third base defender anymore and first base is occupied by Goldschmidt for the next few years, not to mention Matt's salaries are high too ($18.5M per year).
    Whether or not it is just Martinez or a combination of Carlos and Carpenter, the Angels can use one or both as they need a starter and they have the room for a first baseman who can also act as a lead-off hitter (and Jared Walsh happens to have two team options left so he becomes a depth piece until Carpenter leaves).
    Martinez' valuation will be based upon how healthy he is and whether or not Eppler and his front office team believe that Carlos will be effective in those two team option years. A rough estimate of his surplus value could fall anywhere from about $25M-$30M, for two years of control on the low side, to $60M-$70M, for the full four years on the high side. The truth is probably somewhere in between, say $45M-$55M. As a side note Carpenter, who has two guaranteed years at $18.5M each for 2020 and 2021 and a third difficult-to-fulfill, vesting year, for the same amount, has little surplus value.
    So a trade for just Martinez might look like this:
    Angels send 1B/3B Matt Thaiss and SP Jose Suarez in exchange for SP Carlos Martinez
    Thaiss and Suarez, despite spending a limited amount of playing time in the Majors, are still valued more as prospects than proven MLB talent. There is a case to be made that both have something on the order of $20M-$30M each in surplus value, at this moment in time, thus their inclusion together in the trade. Since they are spreading the value out, rather than maximizing in one player/prospect, it is possible that the Angels might have to throw in a mid or low-level prospect on top of this deal. Certainly the Cardinals could ask for a player like Brandon Marsh but when you consider the money and risk the Angels are potentially taking on in trade, that may be to large of an asking price, likely to be turned down by Eppler, and rightfully so, probably.
    If the Angels also wanted Matt Carpenter, who could play the next two seasons at 1B for the Halos, the trade could expand a bit, to the following:
    Angels send 1B/3B Matt Thaiss, SP Jose Suarez, SP Jose Soriano, and RP Daniel Procopio in exchange for SP Carlos Martinez and 1B Matt Carpenter
    It seems logical that the Cardinals are going to move Carpenter in trade either this year or next. When you look at the profiles, Thaiss, on paper, looks a lot like Carpenter when he first started, so St. Louis might like to acquire him as a quality depth piece to either man 3B if they make a big trade or play in a backup role since he has a couple of options remaining and then reevaluate in 2021 or 2022.
    Also the Cardinals just acquired the lefty Kim and adding another LHP in Suarez with options would provide further depth with the loss of Martinez behind the starting five. If Carpenter is involved in the trade, adding Soriano and Procopio would give the Cardinals a potential starter and reliever, respectively.
    It should be noted that Matt Thaiss may not be a preferred target so the Cardinals could request a prospect like Jordyn Adams, Jeremiah Jackson, or any number of other names instead as part of a trade. They could instead ask for Luis Rengifo or Taylor Ward, in lieu of Thaiss or Suarez, as well.
    For the Angels Carlos makes sense as a younger starter with proven capability that would probably excel having a sterling defensive alignment behind him. Adding Carpenter to play first base, as he has a lot in previous seasons, would likely add defensive value to the Halos too. Matt, who carries a career .372 OBP, could also hit lead-off in front of Rendon and/or Trout in the lineup on a daily basis, strengthening the Angels offense and run production hitting at the top-of-the-order.
    Conclusion
    Two-time, All-Star Carlos Martinez is not an ace-level starter. However, at times, he has the potential to pitch like one and putting him, as a ground ball pitcher, in a situation like Anaheim, where he can pitch in a five or six-man rotation and play in front of a strong defensive unit, will only help his skill set and strengthen the front-end of the Angels starting staff.
    There are some probable good fits in trade with the Cardinals but Martinez and Carpenter both seem like good targets for the Angels because they fit needs that the Angels have in the rotation, at 1B, and at the lead-off position in the lineup and are not so exorbitantly expensive, due to their relatively large year-to-year salaries, that it will cost the Angels in terms of player and prospect value going back to the Cardinals in return.
  2. ettin
    2021 Marked 50 Years of Angels Baseball - Time to Throw a Fancy Party?
    So, before we dive into the numbers, we need to have a discussion about the approved payroll number that Angels owner Arte Moreno provides to General Manager (GM) Perry Minasian.
    As the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher reminded me recently, that number Moreno provides is not transparent, it could include or not include player salaries, player benefits, Minor League player salaries, non-guaranteed salaries, the cost of a Pepsi or Coca-Cola out of the clubhouse vending machine, yacht fuel, etc. The point is that we, as fans, do not know, so determining how much payroll the Angels have available for the upcoming season is not entirely clear.
    The current 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), clearly states the following regarding ‘Actual Club Payroll’:

    This definition simply means that player benefits (part (a)) plus player salaries (part (b)) plus any player salaries outrighted to a Minor League club (part (c)), constitute ‘Actual Club Payroll’.
    In principle, you would think that Arte’s official payroll number he gives to his GM, for each season, would include these three core components dictated in the CBA, but we have no idea if Moreno is accounting for player benefits or outright assignments, outside of that guidance, or if it is included. There is just no way to know.
    So, based on that, Angelswin.com will, here in this Series, report the accounting, per the CBA, by adding player benefits to ‘Actual Club Payroll’, which will simply be player salaries plus player benefits (we have no outright assignments, currently, to add). Additionally, we will place a second column for the calculation of Average Annual Value (AAV), which will determine the payroll number used for the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT, also known as the ‘Luxury Tax’) total, based on the Halos current 26-man roster plus Minor League salaries and pre-arbitration call-ups, minus the following impending free agents (Note: One or more of these names could be re-signed):
    Kurt Suzuki
    Dylan Bundy
    Steve Cishek
    Alex Cobb
    AJ Ramos
    Dexter Fowler
    Juan Lagares
    Jose Iglesias
    Below is that approximation, which includes the recent free agent signing of Noah Syndergaard and, also, reliever Aaron Loup:

    First of all, the arbitration numbers for Max Stassi, Mike Mayers, Tyler Wade, and Phil Gosselin (in italics), were obtained from the MLBTradeRumors.com Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2022 article. Although these numbers are estimates, this annual series has proven consistently accurate. It should also be noted that the Angels do not have to tender an arbitration offer, they can simply release one or more of these four names, letting the player in question enter free agency.
    Secondly, the Halos have no players on outright assignments, nor do they owe money to a player that is no longer on the team (thankfully, Pujols’ contract is off the books).
    Finally, the author has made the following financial assumptions:
    League minimum salary for 2022 is $600,000
    Player Benefits are $16,000,000
    Estimated Minor League salaries are $2,435,000
    Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players are $3,000,000
    To make things easier, moving forward, Angelswin.com will presume that the ‘Actual Club Payroll’ number, will consist only of player salaries, nothing else, despite the fact we reported it correctly, per the 2017-2021 CBA. This contradicts the language in the CBA, but without better information, such as knowing what components constitute Moreno’s payroll number, we are grasping at straws.
    So, instead of $169,550,000, per CBA accounting, we will use the base player salaries, totaling $153,550,000 as our starting point for determining how much Minasian has to spend the remainder of this offseason. Bottom line is that we will compare projected total salaries to our best-guess estimate of Moreno’s official payroll number he gives to Minasian.
    Last year, the team ended the season with an actual team payroll of $182M and an AAV of just under $200M. Based on historical spending, expect team owner Arte Moreno to maintain a robust actual payroll that stays under the CBT threshold. Presuming a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) maintains an ever-increasing CBT threshold (this could definitely change), actual team payroll should correspondingly increase from $182M in 2021 to $185M-$195M in 2022.
    For the purposes of the 2022 Angelswin.com Primer Series, we will assume Arte Moreno authorizes an actual team payroll of $190M for the 2022 season. This number could go up or down, but represents an educated estimate despite what could be an unusually aggressive offseason.
    Based on that historically-based assumption, and taking our projected total player salaries and estimate of $190M to spend, this leaves approximately $36.45M in actual team payroll operating space for General Manager (GM) Perry Minasian to work with for the remainder of 2022. When you take into consideration that the Angels will likely keep a reserve of payroll available, leading into the Trade Deadline, this number likely drops a few million, to $27M, give or take.
    For the purposes of the 2022 Angelswin.com Primer Series, we will assume the Los Angeles Angels have $27M remaining, to spend, in free agency (FA) or trade. It should be noted, again, that if the Angels do not retain one or more of their remaining four arbitration-eligible players, that number could increase to as high as $31.7M.
    There are, however, some potential, mitigating monetary factors to consider, regarding this upcoming offseason, that should be discussed.
    The first item is the aforementioned, potential, new CBA. The current CBA is set to expire December 1st, 2021. MLB and the players union are currently negotiating to either implement a new CBA or, more remotely, extend the current CBA. If they cannot reach a consensus on either of those two options, baseball could come to a standstill, possibly resulting in an owner and/or labor strike. Both sides probably want to avoid the latter, but there have been some contentious negotiations and discussions, so nothing is promised.
    Notably this debate has accelerated a lot of offseason transactions prior to the CBA expiration date, rather than delaying them after a new basic agreement has been settled. This aggressive set of transactions feels both player- and club-driven, because the former want to lock-in something for 2022, even if the season is abbreviated due to a player strike, and the latter are, collectively, flush with available payroll, necessitating the need to spend, even if a strike occurs for a lengthy period of time, as a result of a breakdown in talks.
    One part of these negotiations, that was leaked to the media and could impact the Halos offseason, is the idea of lowering the CBT threshold to $180M and raising the penalty tax for exceeding it and creating a minimum team spending floor.
    It is the former that may throw a wrench into the Los Angeles Angels financial planning and spending because if the current CBT threshold moves from $210M down to the suggested, proposed, $180M level, that will further constrain team spending, based on Arte Moreno’s penchant for not exceeding the Luxury Tax. If that new Luxury Tax threshold is implemented, and staying under is what Arte directs, Perry Minasian will likely have no more than a maximum of $5M to allocate the remainder of the offseason, presuming the aforementioned Trade Deadline reserve, as noted above.
    This is now the point where we bring up the second mitigating factor in this payroll calculus. In recent weeks, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Manager Joe Maddon have made remarks about the need for the team to spend and improve the Angels odds to win next season. It should be very concerning to Arte Moreno that the two best players on the team have so vocally expressed their opinion on the state of the franchise. If this issue is not addressed it could lead to Shohei Ohtani leaving the team for FA after the 2023 season, which, quite frankly, would be an unmitigated disaster. Additionally, Mike Trout could grow frustrated and ask to be traded, too, which would also be an unmitigated disaster. This may force Arte Moreno to take more drastic financial action this offseason.
    If you assume that any new or extended CBA retains the softer Luxury Tax penalties for teams that go over the CBT threshold for no more than two years (the penalties increase significantly on the third year and beyond, currently), now may be the time (and the author has been wrong about this in previous seasons) that Arte Moreno decides to open up a no-more-than, 2-year increased financial window for the Halos.
    In fact, if a new CBA is implemented and the aforementioned lower CBT threshold ($180M) is instituted, Moreno will likely have no choice but to go over it, if he wants to avoid player morale issues. Additionally, Arte and Minasian may have an inside track on CBA negotiations where, for example, they feel the current CBA may be extended an additional year or two while negotiations proceed toward a new CBA.
    Once the CBA situation works itself out, we, the fans, will know more, but this offseason may prove to be a pivotal point in franchise history, forcing Arte to go big or risk losing one or both of the teams greatest superstars, not only in the history of the Los Angeles Angels franchise, but in Major League Baseball history, as well. Collectively, it is doubtful that anyone in the Angels organization or the fans want this to happen, but history is chock full of stupid decisions, like Babe Ruth to the Yankees.
    It is because of these two, potential, mitigating factors that our assumed team payroll of $190M might be the wrong number. Presuming, again, that the relative structure of the CBT base tax surcharge levels do not change and the Base Tax Threshold is the same as 2021 ($210M), Moreno could (and again, historically, he has never even sniffed this) authorize a major increase to Actual Club Payroll, up to a maximum of $210M or, if he gets truly ambitious and jumps into the 1st Surcharge Rate, a maximum of $230M, based on how aggressive he feels.
    Also, to be clear, IF Arte does this, he will likely clearly instruct Minasian to bring the team back below the CBT threshold by the end of 2023, in order to avoid the truly severe surcharge rates that are detailed in the currently implemented CBA (and may change in a new CBA!), which means that any significant expenditures in FA, or for trade acquisitions, would likely be for no more than two years in length. Ultimately, the front office has better visibility to ongoing CBA negotiations, but it will be interesting to see what the new CBA offers and the related impacts to every team across MLB, particularly the Halos.
    This CBA discussion will be important for long-term financials as well. Upton’s contract comes off the books after 2022, leaving some room for a longer-term free agent signing, internal extension candidate, or higher-salaried trade target. However, all of the pre-arbitration players on the current 40-man roster and those yet to be added, will begin to significantly impact payroll starting in 2025, based on probable Major League service time accumulated.
    Now, certainly, Minasian can and will trade players away and manage the total payroll number, possibly moving guys like Barria, Suarez, or Junk, for instance, so this is likely not a major concern, but 2025 and 2026 will be significant arbitration seasons. So, expect the Angels to retain their major stars while selectively moving other pieces in trade, to keep overall payroll steady, as they continue to build and maintain a contending team. This future payroll management could prove even more important if the CBT threshold is lowered in the next CBA.
    Oh and before I forget the other 800-pound elephant in the room, there is the fast-approaching decision to sign Shohei Ohtani to an extension contract, which, based on his recent comments about wanting to win, may or may not materialize if the Halos don’t get good, really fast. It should be noted that the front office can fit an Ohtani extension into long-term payroll and, when you consider the total value he brings, should be an absolute no-brainer proposition for Minasian.
    Perhaps, building a contender around a young Shohei, is a third mitigating factor that will push Arte to break the bank or it may turn out to be his greatest mistake as owner of the team, only time will tell. Angelswin.com’s educated guess is that the Angels front office will aggressively pursue an Ohtani extension, it is the only prudent and sane thing to do.
    As always, the financial ball is in Arte’s hand, and, for better or worse, the financial and baseball decisions made this offseason will echo for years to come.
  3. ettin
    Rotation Depth Behind Shohei Ohtani is Critical for the Angels 2022 Campaign and Beyond
    Author Note: Due to the wildly active free agent market leading into the CBA expiration date, things moved so fast that the author decided to keep the original write-up of this installment of the Primer Series and simply strike-out or slightly modify content to reflect the multiple free agent signings over the last week.
    Rotation help, particularly in the front-of-the-rotation, is clearly the Angels greatest need and has been for some time. The addition of Syndergaard, while adding some level of risk, is a nice step forward. Picking up back-end depth, by signing Lorenzen, builds depth and can set the stage for a potential trade,  but Minasian is almost certainly not done.
    Fortunately, for the Halos, there are some premium arms available in free agency and, perhaps even more importantly, some of these starters could possibly be had on a short-term contract (hint, hint Arte). Additionally, the trade market has some options as well, some also short-term.
    Free agent names (age in 2022 season in parentheses) of particular interest include:
    Max Scherzer (37)
    Noah Syndergaard (29)
    Carlos Rodon (29)
    Robbie Ray (30)
    Justin Verlander (39)
    Zack Greinke (38)
    Kevin Gausman (31)
    Marcus Stroman (31)
    Koudai Senga (29, if posted)
    Alex Wood (31)
    Jon Gray (30)
    Eduardo Rodriguez (29)
    Jose Urena (30)
    Alex Cobb (34)
    Certainly there are other starters available, but these are the names that have a track record of success, the pedigree, and/or the potential to pitch closer to the top, than the bottom, of the rotation. Those that are struck-out have already signed since the author first penned this part of the Primer Series (boy this market moved fast in the week leading up to the CBA expiration!).
    Scherzer, Syndergaard (signed!), Verlander, and Greinke strike me as the type of guys the Angels would more likely target this offseason, simply because they all may be willing to sign for no more than two years, which would fit an aggressive financial push by Moreno, if Arte does significantly exceed the CBT threshold for the first time since 2003. Noah may seem odd, here, but he is coming off of Tommy John Surgery (TJS) and, whether the Mets do or do not make him a Qualifying Offer, he may be willing to sign a soft 1-2 year pillow contract to re-establish his value (and, of course, he did!).
    Beyond that group, the remainder contain a mix of established names. Perhaps the most interesting one is Carlos Rodon who had a breakout season in 2021, although he had some injury concerns near the end of the year. Rodon was actually the best starter, on a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) per Innings Pitched (IP) (WAR/IP) basis last year, out of the available free agents (even better than Scherzer). He, too, may be willing to sign a 1-year pillow contract to re-establish his health on the open market.

    Carlos Rodon 2021 Statcast Percentile Ranking
    Also here is Rodon’s Statcast player similarity profile, showing Scherzer (and Peralta, May, et. al.) as comparables:

    Carlos Rodon 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80)
    Also, Robbie Ray, who compares favorably, per Statcast, to Scherzer, Cole, Darvish, Nola, and Cease, was probably of interest to the Angels front office before he inked a deal with the Mariners:

    Robbie Ray 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80)
    Additionally, if Koudai Senga is posted, he would be a potentially interesting and possibly more affordable arm. Of course, Marcus Stroman, who has effused his admiration for Mike Trout, could be a target. The other names could eat innings and have certain characteristics that will attract a host of suitors. One name the Angels are quite familiar with is Alex Cobb, who could potentially be extended or resigned. He compares favorably to two other interesting starters, German Marquez and Luis Castillo:

    Alex Cobb 2021 Statcast Player Similarity (R = .80)
    The trade market is more difficult to pin down, but it seems very plausible Minasian could go this route, in addition to free agency.
    As was mentioned near the Trade Deadline, this year, SP Max Meyer’s name popped up as part of a proposed Marlins deal that fell through, potentially involving Brandon Marsh, so he could still be a target (or not, since the Angels didn’t go for it, mid-season). In fact, Minasian could pick up a combination of starters out of both free agency (two already!) and trade, for an additional premium arm, increasing team depth in the rotation and using any spare starters out of the bullpen.
    Other trade targets of interest might include names like Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Shane Bieber, Max Fried, Tyler Mahle, Antonio Senzatela, Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, and/or Pablo Lopez. On the prospect side, the Angels might be able to find a name like the aforementioned Max Meyer, along with others, like Matthew Liberatore, Daniel Espino, Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Aaron Ashby, Jhoan Duran, and Nick Lodolo, among others.
    Perry Minasian will have to be very mindful about team payroll when considering the various names in free agency and trade. For reference, as discussed on MLBTradeRumors.com, Justin Verlander, entering his age 37 season, signed a 2-year deal for $66M based on a 2019 6.4 WAR campaign, so Max Scherzer, heading into 2022 at age 37 coming off a 5.4 WAR effort, will probably pull in a larger contract (and, in fact, he pulled in an AAV record-breaking 3-year, $130M deal from the Mets!).
    This essentially means, based on the Finances Section of this Primer Series, that signing a guy like Max will eat up most of the available payroll, creating a quandary for both Minasian and Moreno; putting increasing pressure on the latter, to open up the wallet, further.
    The bottom line is that the starting pitching staff can, should, and will be reinforced this offseason. Despite the Syndergaard, Lorenzen, and Loup signings, the Angels currently have a little over $20M to work with, barring a yet-to-be-seen Moreno push over the Luxury Tax, but that should be enough to get at least one of these names to add to the staff.
    Remember that there are permutations to this offseason that Minasian and the Angels front office see a lot more clearly than fans. It could be free agent signings and/or trades, but if you sign 2-3 starters from free agency, you can probably package up 1-2 top prospects along with one or more other players/prospects and trade for another starter, i.e. addition by subtraction (numbers!). For example, it might be signing Syndergaard and Stroman, then dealing Detmers, Marsh, and Barria for a guy like Luis Castillo. The combinations are out there, it is just a matter of finding one that makes sense for the team.
  4. ettin
    The Only Numbers that Truly Matter?
    I love numbers.
    The numbering system has provided a strong foundation for human knowledge dating back thousands of years. The Mesopotamians used it. The Egyptians used it. The Greeks used it. Indian and Arabic cultures used and improved it. And so on and so on and so forth.
    Numbers, calculations, theories, and formulas have contributed to many advancements in a truly diverse set of fields from farming and irrigation, construction, the automobile and airline industries, medicine, the electronics industry, and spaceflight. All of these fields, and many more, were developed, advanced, and improved upon, by the foundation of the mathematical system. Numbers are the underlying framework of fact-based, proven theories across virtually every aspect of human existence.
    This also includes baseball, which aggressively uses numbers. This is probably, in part, why I love both numbers and baseball.

    Cartoon Excerpt from BaseballSavant.MLB.com
    The basic science of hitting a baseball is one of the fundamental principles of rocket science (trajectory analysis). The vertical drop a baseball experiences once it leaves the pitcher's hand (Newton’s Laws), and the spin imparted by the tips of their fingers (rotational energy and airflow resistance and friction) also have their place in dynamics analysis across many scientific fields of study.
    Baseball is numbers. Baseball is science. Baseball is grounded in facts. Baseball is both predictable and, strangely at times, unpredictable (especially when Joe West is the home plate umpire).
    In fact, this is probably a love that I share with Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno. In advertising, numbers are constantly used, whether it is the number of impressions a particular ad generates or how much revenue an advertising campaign makes, for example. Moreno understands numbers not only in advertising, but also in relation to the finances of baseball.
    And, as we will discuss, Arte will be faced with a critical decision that will potentially impact the franchise’s future numbers, across the board, for years to come and will reveal whether the Angels are a pretender or the true and rightful kings to the Los Angeles throne.
    So, welcome to the 2022 Angelswin.com Primer Series, where we will use the numbers of baseball, in particular the numbers of the Los Angeles Angels, to understand where the Halos have been and where they will go in preparation for the 2022 campaign.
    Angelswin.com will look at the facts, examine publicly-made statements and other valid sources of data, infer information, make reasoned speculations, and attempt to expand our knowledge of what the 2022 Angels team will look like and what steps they need to take to turn their fortunes around.
    Everyone strap in.
  5. ettin
    Los Angeles Angels General Manager Perry Minasian (Source: OCRegister.com)
    Just like Moreno’s looming financial decision, GM Perry Minasian also faces a series of challenges of his own to answer this offseason.
    First on his list is solving the riddle of the starting pitching staff, which has been an elusive target in past seasons. Using every draft pick in the 2021 Rule 4 Draft on pitching was a start, but one that will probably not bring immediate returns. Making an early strike to sign a frontline-capable rotation piece, like Syndergaard on a one-year, $21M deal, is also another good start. Following that up with a back-end rotation piece, like Lorenzen, is a depth move and may be setting the stage to trade one of the many young starters we currently have on our 40-man roster.
    Certainly, the Angels are also beginning to see some of the fruit of past drafts start to impact the Major League roster. Names like Chris Rodriguez, Reid Detmers, and Jhonathan Diaz, are all making their presence known, but are still relatively young and inexperienced, despite recent time spent on the 40-man roster (and C-Rod is now out for most of 2022). Additionally, recently acquired names, like Janson Junk and Packy Naughton are also in the mix trying to forge their own path at the Major League level.
    What the Halos have aimed for, but failed to acquire, is a controllable, top-of-the-rotation arm. The Angels chased Gerrit Cole in FA, but watched, helplessly, as the New York Yankees snagged him away. Other names have eluded them, too, forcing the Angels to gamble more, signing or trading for arms like Dylan Bundy, Jose Quintana, and Alex Cobb, with mixed, but generally disappointing, results (and even Syndergaard has some health risk attached).
    This cannot be the case this offseason and Minasian knows it, which is why he acquired “Thor” and needs to continue to strengthen the front part of the rotation and, fortunately, there are some names in the free agent market that can support that effort. Whether it is an experienced veteran like Max Scherzer (who, as of this writing, has apparently signed with the Mets) or a journeyman starter such as Marcus Stroman in free agency or a guy like Luis Castillo, Shane Bieber, Max Fried, or Pablo Lopez in trade, Minasian needs to announce his presence, as the Angels GM, with authority. Acquiring one or more free agent starters or trade targets, is almost certainly the highest priority on Perry’s to-do list. In fact acquiring two or three arms would be even better, but he will be resource-constrained by Moreno’s looming payroll decision.
    Beyond the rotation, the Halos have a clear need at shortstop. The free agent market is brimming with options, but all of those names will cost just as much as a starter and, barring a wild increase in payroll, the front office will have to prioritize needs and make tough decisions and David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, or another internal option are either contractually-controlled (Fletch) or making League minimum (Luis) salary, so the Angels might “scrimp”, here, as Mike DiGiovanna recently reported.
    Another hole is a backstop to play behind the excellent Max Stassi. This is almost certainly a lower priority than finding a starter or shortstop, so, although they need to fill the spot, the Halos will probably punt here, and find an internal or low-cost solution, in free agency or trade, for next year.
    Finally, the possible loss of Raisel Iglesias from the roster may force Minasian to search for additional bullpen arms prior to 2022 Opening Day. Picking up a high-quality back-end bullpen piece, like Loup, was a solid strike, but the relief corps still feels unfinished.
    Notably the Angels did, rightfully, make a Qualifying Offer (QO) to Raisel, which he rejected, resulting in a 2022 compensation pick, partially making up for the loss of their 2nd Round pick due to the Syndergaard signing. Additionally, they can still re-sign Iglesias, but the price may be too much, based on the available payroll number provided by Arte. Arguably, if the Halos do re-sign Iglesias, the bullpen becomes a big plus for the 2022 season, based on the projected relief lineup.
    If the Halos do not re-sign Raisel, replacing him will be very difficult, but with the addition of the veteran Loup, the Angels do have a base of young relievers to draw upon and if they can find an additional bargain-bin guy in FA or as a finishing piece in a trade, that is probably the tact they will take to rebuilding their relief corps this offseason, unless Moreno monetarily intercedes. Like backup catcher, the bullpen is a lower priority in comparison to obtaining viable rotation pieces, so unless they retain Raisel, expect a lower allotment of resources to this issue and a greater reliance on the emerging arms from our farm system.
    So to recap, GM Perry Minasian and the Angels front office will need to address, at the minimum, the following holes in the roster:
    1-2 Starters
    Shortstop
    Backup Catcher
    1-2 Relievers
    There is a lot of work needed to help shape the 2022 Los Angeles Angels roster. GM Perry Minasian and the front office will need to balance the use of veteran and prospect talent to find the right mix of experience and production. Upgrading the roster will not be easy, but it is necessary for a team that has been looking through an open window of contention and has yet to truly step through it. The Syndergaard, Lorenzen, and Loup signings are good first steps, but the offseason is not complete, by any means.
    Particularly, the free agent market will be difficult this season because a large number of teams have significant amounts of payroll to spend, increasing competition for the top-tier players. This will bleed over to the trade market, as well, where it would not be surprising to see one or more brand name players, with high-salary, near-term expiring contracts (think 1-3 years left), finding new homes next season. The market has already been unusually aggressive, so sparks are flying and Minasian needs to have both hands on the welding tool, to guide it down the right lines.
    Ultimately, Perry will have to find the right permutation that significantly improves the 40-man roster and gives the squad the greatest amount of support to make a real push to the 2022 postseason. The quality of this improvement should be well correlated to the amount of financial leash provided by Moreno.
    In the end, the good news is that the front office knows what it needs, it is just a matter of finding it at an acceptable price in terms of payroll and resource (prospects) expenditures.
    At Angelswin.com we expect to see a solid combination of free agent signings (three already!) and one or more trades, in what will be a busy offseason for Perry Minasian and the Halos front office.
  6. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Now that we have identified probable purchases, it is time to flip the script and discuss what happens if the Angels become sellers, rather than buyers. For the purposes of this article we will only discuss those assets that actually have some level of reasonable trade value as it will not be the best use of time trying to find someone with minimal or even zero value, like Tony Watson or Kurt Suzuki, a hypothetical home on another team.
    Also we will only consider teams that are actual buyers or are on the bubble of contention (i.e. teams that are clearly sellers will not be considered in this discussion). It should also be noted that some teams may be more aggressive than others, because a specific, targeted player might push them up the win curve significantly or they may want to keep their opponents from acquiring the player so that player cannot be used against them. Finally, the Angels, in any negotiation, will more likely target MLB-ready or near-ready assets, more so than prospects overall, simply because we need to make our Major League squad better now, rather than later.
    Raisel Iglesias
    2021: 3.66 ERA, 34.9% K%-BB%, .194 AVG, 0.89 WHIP, 3.70 FIP, 1.89 SIERA
    Perhaps the Angels greatest asset at the Trade Deadline, Iglesias is having a heck of a season (Ranked 5th in K%-BB% among relievers with 30+ innings pitched) and, most importantly, he is getting outs equally well on both sides of the plate. Of course he is a pure rental, but there will be massive interest by virtually every team in contention, whether they really need him or not. Other than Craig Kimbrel, Iglesias should be the top reliever on the market, if the Angels make him available.
    Teams that may have the greatest interest in Raisel include the Blue Jays, Astros, Athletics, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Braves, Reds, and Phillies, probably. Again, other teams like the Red Sox and Yankees will likely inquire, despite their lack of urgent need, because a guy like Iglesias will improve any bullpen in baseball.
    So what would Raisel bring back in return? Probably 1-3 good, but not great, prospects, depending on the names involved. Some sample trade scenarios are below:
    Angels send RP Raisel Iglesias to the Blue Jays in exchange for C Reese McGuire and SP/RP Julian Merryweather. Here the Angels could pick up a potentially good 3rd wheel from the Blue Jays in McGuire who was designated for assignment earlier in the season but has raked well lately and has an above average glove behind the dish. Merryweather is capable of starting, so the Angels could continue to stretch him out or, alternatively, turn him into a multi-inning reliever. In lieu of McGuire, the Angels could ask for Jensen or Kirk, instead, but the latter is probably not available.
    Angels send RP Raisel Iglesias and SS/2B Luis Rengifo to the Dodgers in exchange for C Keibert Ruiz (#2), and SP Bobby Miller (#8). The acquisition of Ruiz would give the Angels a nice switch-hitting bat (better from the left side) to pair with Max Stassi and a starter with strikeout capability in Miller. The Dodgers get Iglesias for the stretch run and they almost acquired Rengifo previously in the nixed Pederson-Stripling deal, so the interest probably still exists. Ruiz may or may not be available, but with Will Smith locked in, the Dodgers are probably willing to move Keibert in the right deal.
    Alex Cobb
    2021: 4.60 ERA, 20.2% K%-BB%, .241 AVG, 1.22 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 3.21 SIERA
    A solid season has put Cobb back on the map and if the Halos become sellers or take a hybrid posture, other teams will almost certainly come calling. Just like Iglesias (and a lot of other guys on this list) he is a pure rental. Although his actual ERA is a touch above League average, his peripherals tell a different, better, story (FIP is 2.58 and K%-BB% of 20.2%, as of July 7th, 2021). He has been doing this equally well against both sides of the plate, to boot.
    Teams that may have the most interest in Cobb, include the Blue Jays, Indians, Braves, Reds, Rays, and Mets. Certainly other teams will inquire, but those just listed are more probable suitors.
    So what will Cobb bring back in return? Likely something similar, but slightly less, than Iglesias, again, 1-3 good, but not great prospects. Some sample trade suggestions are below:
    Angels send SP Alex Cobb to the Rays in exchange for C Blake Hunt and SP Seth Johnson. Here the Angels pick up an athletic catcher with some pop in his bat and Johnson, a right-hander who throws in the low-to-mid 90’s with a quality 4-pitch mix.
    Angels send SP Alex Cobb to the Braves in exchange for C Shea Langeliers and SP Jared Shuster. Langeliers is a noted, excellent defender with no flaws behind the dish, but the offense is the question mark, particularly his swing, which the Angels would try to fix. Shuster is an advanced arm that just needs to be stretched out over the next couple of seasons in the Minors, that could be an above average strikeout guy from the left-side of the mound, potentially.
    Andrew Heaney
    2021: 5.38 ERA, 20.6% K%-BB%, .257 AVG, 1.35 WHIP, 4.15 FIP, 3.72 SIERA
    Despite an excellent K%-BB%, Andrew has, unfortunately, not had correspondingly actual results. Part of his issues has been one part bad luck (.328 BABIP), one part letting to many runners score (67.9% LOB%), another part walking hitters (3.04 BB/9), one more part giving up a little to many long balls (1.64 HR/9), and an uncharacteristically bad time against left-handed hitters, which traditionally has been a strong suit.
    Teams that may have the most interest in Heaney, include the Athletics, Braves, Indians, Reds, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees. Certainly other teams will inquire, but those just listed are more probable suitors.
    All of those parts listed above lead to the depression of Andrew’s value, so, unlike Iglesias or Cobb, he is more likely to bring back 1-2 good, but not great prospects if the Angels choose to move him at the Trade Deadline. Some sample trade scenarios are listed below:
    Angels send SP Andrew Heaney to the Athletics in exchange for SP Brady Feigl and C Drew Millas. This move would give the Angels an interesting arm in Feigl and a possible replacement for Stassi in Millas, who is strong defensively.
    Angels send SP Andrew Heaney to the Red Sox in exchange for SP Noah Song and SP/RP Aldo Ramirez. Song is an interesting flyer who throws hard, but has been serving in the military and could start as a high-octane reliever and then stretched out over time and Ramirez is a multi-innings type that has the potential to stick in the rotation if things break right.
    SS Jose Iglesias
    2021: .275/.306/.394, .306 BABIP, 94 wRC+
    Iglesias, known for his high quality defense, has certainly disappointed a bit on the field. However, he has exceeded his run production by about 6% over his career average, so there is some give and take here, based on expectations. There are two scenarios where Iglesias might get traded: 1) the Angels decide to sell off expendable assets, including Jose and 2) the Angels decide to upgrade at SS, before the Trade Deadline, and move him, then. Other than that, it makes more sense to keep Jose and then target one of the many shortstops that will be available in free agency this upcoming offseason.
    Teams that may have some interest in Iglesias, include the Reds, Athletics, and, more remotely, the Rays, if they feel their young prospects they called up are not getting it done. Other teams like the Yankees and Indians are struggling at SS, too, but the former has Gleyber Torres, who is scuffling, but has immense talent, and the latter seem to be falling out of contention, so they may forgo a Trade Deadline deal to bolster their middle infield. This leaves Iglesias’ trade market somewhat bare.
    When you consider that Jose’s defense should rebound, he makes for a low-level pickup by a contending team, but he will not bring back much, probably one reasonable prospect if the Angels move him at the Trade Deadline. An example trade scenario is listed below:
    Angels send SS Jose Iglesias to the Reds in exchange for SP Noah Davis. This would give the Halos a near-ready pitching prospect that features a fastball/slider/changeup combination with low-to-mid 90’s velocity. Could serve well in a multi-inning relief or starter role, depending on how his development continues.
    RP Steve Cishek
    2021: 2.88 ERA, 7.1% K%-BB%, .219 AVG, 1.43 WHIP, 3.34 FIP, 4.70 SIERA
    Cishek has had a strong, results-oriented season to-date, living and dying by putting the ball on the ground and letting the defense do its job, in addition to making hitters miss enough to generate poor contact. Some teams might be afraid of the walks (rightfully so), but he is getting it done against both sides of the plate.
    Teams that may have some level of interest in Cishek, include clubs like the Phillies, Reds, Athletics, Giants, Blue Jays, Astros, Braves, Mets, and Padres. Other teams may have interest, too, but the teams listed are outside of the Top 10 in bullpen WAR, making them more probable suitors.
    Now certainly, Cishek is no Iglesias, but he has been running well and that should translate into 1-2 mid-tier prospects, potentially. Some example trade scenarios are listed below:
    Angels send RP Steve Cishek to the Brewers in exchange for SS David Hamilton. Here the Halos would pick up a good contact, great defensive shortstop. Not dissimilar to David Fletcher, but he strikes out more. Could turn into a utility guy if the power doesn’t improve, but not a bad guy to have, particularly if his development breaks right.
    Angels send RP Steve Cishek to the Brewers in exchange for SP Bowden Francis. Another alternate deal with the Brewers might bring back near-read starter Bowden Francis, who is a good command type of pitcher with a solid 4-pitch mix.
    Angels send RP Steve Cishek to the Astros in exchange for SP Hunter Brown and RP Brett Conine. Since the Astros play in the same Division, the Halos would probably try to extract a little more from Houston, snagging the high-potential Brown and solid Conine. Both have upside, at the minimum in the bullpen, but both, particularly Hunter, could enter the rotation at some point.
    SP/RP Dylan Bundy
    2021: 6.78 ERA, 14.0% K%-BB%, .275 AVG, 1.42 WHIP, 5.44 FIP, 4.36 SIERA
    Unfortunately for Dylan, his 2021 season did not come even close to replicating his 2020 campaign. Despite a slightly above average K%-BB%, he simply has given up too many hits and the defense behind him did not help matters in the least. As evidenced by his recent move to the bullpen, the Angels are still trying to extract some value from him in the final weeks leading up to the Trade Deadline, but no matter what this will be a more difficult sell on the trade market for Perry Minasian.
    Teams that may have some level of interest in Bundy, include clubs like the Athletics, Braves, Indians, Reds, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. Other teams might make inquiries, but those just listed are the most in need of help against right-handed hitters, which Dylan does a better job against, overall.
    For all of the numbers listed above, Bundy represents low value on the trade market, but there will be modest interest. He will only bring back 1-2 mid-to-lower level tier prospects at best and the Angels may have to retain some salary based on the return in question. Some sample trade scenarios are listed below:
    Angels send SP/RP Dylan Bundy to the Indians in exchange for SP/RP Hunter Gaddis. As indicated Bundy will not pull much in, but Gaddis projects as a multi-inning reliever with above average strikeout capability, so the Halos may make this their ask in a hypothetical Indians trade.
    Angels send SP/RP Dylan Bundy to the Reds in exchange for SP Graham Ashcraft. This one might be a stretch, but Ashcraft could move fast through the Angels system to turn into a likely multi-inning or short-stint reliever.
    SP/RP Jose Quintana
    2021 Starter: 7.22 ERA, 14.5% K%-BB%, .279 AVG, 1.93 WHIP, 4.44 FIP, 4.50 SIERA
    2021 Reliever: 7.94 ERA, 22.2% K%-BB%, .320 AVG, 1.76 WHIP, 5.99 FIP, 3.00 SIERA
    So, looking at his numbers, as both a starter and reliever, you can see that Quintana has suffered at the hands of the baseball gods. A 14.5% K%-BB% should not equate to a 7.22 ERA (and his peripheral FIP and SIERA numbers suggest that), nor should a 22.2% K%-BB%, as a reliever, equate to a 7.94 ERA. In both cases, Jose is running a .400 BABIP, which is clearly saying he has suffered bad luck on top of it all. The peripherals highly suggest Quintana should have better actual results, but unfortunately for the Halos that has not materialized, yet.
    Teams that may have some level of interest in a reclamation project like Quintana, could include the Blue Jays, Reds, Phillies, Braves, and Red Sox, among others. More than likely they would consider him in a relief role, more so than in the rotation.
    Clearly, Quintana will not pull down more than a low-level type of prospect, so we should expect very little here (almost didn’t list him, but the peripherals will pique the interest of other teams). An example trade scenario is listed below:
    Angels send SP/RP Jose Quintana to the Braves in exchange for SP Jared Johnson. Even Johnson might be too big of a price to pay, but, currently, he is a projected 35+ grade prospect, per FanGraphs, that the Halos would probably feel happy acquiring back in return for Jose.
    Conclusion
    One notable takeaway from this mental exercise, is that a lot of the potential teams the Angels seem to partner up with, do not have a lot of notable pieces that are near- or MLB-ready types of players. This may prove a bit problematic, but should not be a roadblock for the Angels to get a deal or two accomplished.
    It seems quite plausible that the Angels will make at least one or two deals, because they do have assets down on the farm that they could bring up to replace the pieces they sell. For example, could the Halos trade Jose Iglesias and simply bring up Luis Rengifo to replace him at SS? Could Minasian designate Kurt Suzuki for assignment and promote Matt Thaiss behind the dish? Would the Angels consider jettisoning Adam Eaton after Trout and Upton return from the Injured List in order to promote Jo Adell? Could they move Juan Lagares and bring up Brandon Marsh before September call ups to get his first carafe of coffee? Maybe they move Cishek and promote Quijada? Part ways with Dylan Bundy and let Dillon Peters take his place? Move Quintana and promote Chris Rodriguez into the rotation?
    The point is that the Angels have assets on the farm that could replace some of our poor performers and, performance-wise, you probably will not know the difference and, in fact, they may improve the overall team. This is why you should expect to see at least 1-2 guys go out the door in trade, in addition to the potential acquisitions mentioned in the previous article.
     
    If you were the Angels GM, which players would you sell at the Trade Deadline?
    Up next - 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Conclusion
  7. ettin
    The Era of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani is Now
    In this Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series, we examined the Angels standings in the League and how it impacts their Playoff Odds, made some practical assumptions about their potential posture heading into the Trade Deadline (July 30th), determined their areas of need, and probed prospective partners in any deal, whether the Halos decide to buy or sell (or both!).
    Here is a graphic of all of the teams with at least a 10% chance or more of making the playoffs in 2021, as of July 10th, 2021:

    2021 MLB Playoff Odds for All Teams with >10% Chance as of July 10th, 2021
    The top grouping represents the six Division leaders. Below that sit the Mets and the Rays. Further down, the Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees are jockeying for position. Then, the grouping at the bottom, contains the Angels, Reds, Braves, and Phillies. It should be noted that as of July 15th, 2021 (5 days after this graphic), the Indians and Braves have slipped below 10% (6.7% and 7.4%, respectively, Angels sit at 15.4%).
    Based on this information, as of July 10th, 2021, the Angels have improved enough that GM Perry Minasian is likely recommending to owner Arte Moreno that they commit resources to make a more aggressive move to continue competing, even though the team will probably only be in the discussion for a Wild Card spot. This could include obtaining a front-of-the-rotation starter (if they can find an appropriate one in the market), a new backup catcher who can, preferably, hit right-handed pitching well, and one, possibly two, relievers, one of which should be competent against left-handed hitters. It seems ill-advised and unlikely, based on our research, that the Angels will consider a large acquisition in right field, at least at this moment in time. Author’s Note: And, in fact, the Halos signed Adam Eaton, prior to publication, likely as a platoon partner in a corner outfield spot, because he has excelled against right-handed pitching over his career.
    Again, the trade market may not support these needs and, certainly, there will be other teams the Angels have to compete with in the marketplace. In baseball, goals often go unrealized and many deals are never consummated. This will, however, in the author’s opinion, not deter the Angels from improving at this point, whether it is a blockbuster trade or one or more smaller transactions to help the Halos gain the extra inches they need to cross the playoff finish line. When you have a legitimate opportunity to get to the World Series, you should consider any reasonable moves to get there, particularly if it improves the team in the long-term as well.
    Now to be clear, Perry Minasian will be monitoring the teams performance for the next couple of weeks and if things shift dramatically in the loss column and the trade market looks inviting, for the assets the Angels are potentially selling, they could go the full sell route and add additional pieces for 2022 and beyond, likely making the team even more competitive in near-future seasons. This is what we talked about early on in this series about the information that is available to the Halos versus the information available to us, as fans. Do not think, for even a second, that the Angels front office has not contacted every team in baseball to check on player availability and also interest in our obtainable assets. Information is power!
    So whether it is promoting Matt Thaiss or Anthony Bemboom, behind the dish or acquiring Reese McGuire, trading for Max Scherzer, Luis Castillo, Shane Bieber, or even a guy like Jon Gray, sticking with the productive Taylor Ward, bringing up young Jo Adell, or picking up an established right fielder, or even snagging one or two affordable relievers like Chafin, Tepera, or Hudson, the Angels should have some trade space to upgrade the team. Also, with Mike Trout returning from the Injured List, this will only make the team leaps and bounds better and, if you tack on one or more trades, you can transform the Angels enough to make a real difference in 2021 and, possibly, beyond, if the new acquisitions have additional years of control. Trout returning, alone, could potentially bridge the current 4.5 game divide in the Wild Card race, not to mention a healthy Upton and Rendon returning near the end of July.
    The Angels seem poised, whether it is now or later, to make some noise in the A.L. West and Perry Minasian and the Angels front office know this and will do their best, based on the information available, to make it happen sooner, rather than later, for a 2021 Angels team that, to date, deserves the opportunity to improve and punch their own ticket to the playoffs.
    Author’s Speculative Opinion: The Angels will attempt to add a front-end starter with more than one season of control, but the trade market may not accommodate this need. It certainly is a missing piece of the puzzle that the Angels need to solve and one of our top outfield prospects will be the likely centerpiece of any deal for a controllable starter. If the Angels are targeting a pure rental, Moreno would probably kick in Luxury Tax money to pick up Scherzer and if the Halos want more years of control (more likely) someone like Luis Castillo or Shane Bieber may be possible. Additionally, the Halos will likely promote Matt Thaiss as the backup catcher to Stassi, he probably has enough chops to play a passable catcher and his bat can play at the Major League level, making him the cheapest “acquisition” at the Trade Deadline. The only roadblock will be if Thaiss cannot play at least marginal defense, thus necessitating a trade for a guy like Reese McGuire or another. Also, it would not be a surprise for the Angels to promote Adell at some point, but Taylor Ward’s bat has been solid and they have now taken a flyer on Eaton’s left-handed bat, so they could keep Jo down the rest of the season and start him in 2022 (Adell has 153 days of service time, not quite a full year, thus starting him in '22 would give the Angels a full six years of control). The Angels could also move Juan Lagares and promote Brandon Marsh to give him some Major League experience so that is a remote, but possible, transaction as a backup outfielder. Also, the Angels could move one or more of Bundy, Quintana, Heaney, and Cobb in order to promote one or more of Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Cooper Criswell, Jaime Barria, or top prospect Reid Detmers, for example. Finally, I could see Minasian picking up one or two of Richard Rodriguez, Andrew Chafin, Daniel Hudson, and/or Ryan Tepera in trade, probably out of the latter three or even promote internally, bringing Jose Quijada backup or perhaps one of Andrew Wantz, Hector Yan, Jake Reed, Boomer Biegalski, Jhonathan Diaz, and/or Jake Faria, to hold a more permanent spot the remainder of the season.
    If you were the Angels GM, what would you do? Post your thoughts in the thread and continue the conversation about the Halos future!
  8. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Now that we have spent some time getting the lay of the land, it is time to do a bit more speculative analysis, based on the Angels' needs, if they become buyers.
    Knowing the Halos most probable four areas of need and the list we created of likely sellers, we can use FanGraphs sortable statistics, looking at possible catchers, starters, right fielders, and relievers that might be targets of interest for the Angels and are also likely to be available in trade. The author, in addition to FanGraphs, will also utilize Baseball-Reference.com and Spotrac.com to examine player salaries and expiring contract information, as needed. Finally all charts presented were pulled as of July 8th, 2021.
    Looking at catchers first, here is a short list of probable targets for upgrade that have a reasonable combination of defense and the ability to hit against right-handed pitching:

    Probable Catcher Targets vs. RHP Sorted by WAR (As of July 8th, 2021)
    So the Angels have been playing Thaiss at catcher for over the last month (24 games as of July 8th, 2021), so if they think he can play a passable backstop, he would be a very inexpensive solution who, of course, hits from the left-side (and probably cannot do much worse than Suzuki, defensively... maybe). For the Blue Jays, top prospect Alejandro Kirk is on the verge of joining the Major League team, leaving one of McGuire or Jansen likely out on the side of the road. Gomes and Molina are in their walk years, with the latter more likely to retire than come to the team his good friend Albert Pujols just left. Contreras and Kelly are interesting, but will cost a lot. Stallings, Barnhart, and Alfaro will cost something, too. Here at Angelswin.com, beyond the semi-intriguing internal options of Thaiss or Bemboom, we would roll the dice with one of Barnhart, McGuire, Jansen, or Stallings, as the more likely picks, especially one of the Toronto guys, because Minasian knows them better than most and the Blue Jays are a little more likely to move one of them.
    Moving on to starting pitchers, here is another list of possible targets for upgrade:

    Probable Rotation Targets Sorted by K%-BB% (As of July 8th, 2021)
     
    From an Angelswin.com point of view, a majority of these starters are probably out of reach. Many of them have more than one year of control so, in that case, their price will be elevated, possibly beyond the Angels ability to acquire, currently.
    Based on this and the assumption that the Angels will likely only go after a top starter if and only if they improve markedly as we head toward the end of July, Angelswin.com would speculate that the Halos front office is slightly more likely to target a pure rental like Scherzer, Wainwright, or Gray to minimize the resource cost (i.e. money and players and prospects sent back in return), or, a bit less likely, they might go big and try to acquire one of Castillo, Berrios, Bieber, or Marquez (unlikely), all of which have additional  control, but play for teams that run relatively low payrolls and thus may not be able to afford to retain them, in arbitration, moving forward. Notably, the Reds were shopping Luis in the offseason , the Twins may not be able to extend Jose, and Shane grew up an Angels fan, so if Cincinnati, Minnesota, or Cleveland decide it is time, you never know what could happen.
    Beyond catchers and starters, the Angels could consider the aforementioned temporary right field solution. Below is a list of possible targets:
    Joey Gallo Mitch Haniger Robbie Grossman And that is about it! The rest of the outfielders on the leaderboard either play for teams in contention, have long-term control or contracts, or are only slight upgrades (Tommy Edman for example) over Taylor Ward who is also on the leaderboard, albeit further down the list. This really is a situation where, unless the Angels are acquiring a top-tier outfielder with long-term control and then dealing off Jo Adell and/or Taylor Ward (for pitching as an example), this is basically a no-go and possible dead-end for Minasian to pursue. Probably best to stick with Taylor and then bring up Adell only when the Angels front office feels he is ready to face Major League pitching, again. It is the most affordable choice, with the highest promise, available to the Angels, from the outside looking in, on a near- and long-term basis.
    Finally we get to our fourth potential area of need, relief pitching. Here is a list of targets, based on our probable list of sellers at the Trade Deadline:

    Probable Reliever Targets Sorted by K%-BB% (As of July 8th, 2021)
    So, obviously, there are some names to choose from if Perry Minasian wants to upgrade the bullpen. Clearly some of these names (Kimbrel and Gallegos for example) will be more expensive than others. When examining the contractual status of this group, it may be better for the Halos to target one of the following names: Taylor Rogers, Richard Rodriguez, Andrew Chafin, Ryan Tepera, and Daniel Hudson. This group also happens to have strong numbers against left-handed hitters, so this would not only improve the bullpen as a whole, but would strengthen the Halos ability to put them to bed. If Angelswin.com was in the Halos shoes, one, possibly two, of Rodriguez, Chafin, Tepera, or Hudson, would make the most sense to bolster the relief staff, if the Angels choose to go this route.
    Again, this discussion represents a more probable set of areas the Angels could improve upon and the names suggested are more likely to be available in trade, but trade negotiations are very fluid and unpredictable. We, here at Angelswin.com, will continue to hammer the point home that we, the fans, do not have access to all of the information the Angels do and, thus, there may be many other avenues the Angels can take to improve the team, so anything is possible, including doing nothing, at the Trade Deadline.
     
    If you were the Angels GM, would you target any of the suggestions above and, if so, why?
    Up next - 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Likely Targets to Sell
  9. ettin
    Author’s Note: Angelswin.com would like to welcome all of the new people who have joined the site! New blood and fresh faces, opinions, and commenters make this Angel fan community stronger, thank you for joining and please feel free to participate in the conversations, as well! Also, for the remainder of this Trade Deadline series we will utilize FanGraphs.com, a premier data-driven baseball website for all of our projected and factual information. Any additional, outlying information used will be credited appropriately to the correct source as needed.
     
    Every year, each team in baseball is faced with an important decision heading into the Trade Deadline: Should the team buy or sell?
    This decision is typically based on a variety of factors, of which the most important one is the team’s standing in their Division and in the Wild Card hunt. Each General Manager (GM) must balance the odds of winning the rest of the season, based on strength of schedule, team depth, finances, available players and prospects actually available in the marketplace, and a host of other considerations, based on the information available to them at any given moment. Not an easy job and for Angels GM Perry Minasian, in the era of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, it will be an even more difficult decision leading into the last week of July.
    So, in order to determine the Angels posture heading into the Trade Deadline (July 30th this year!), we first need to understand what their playoff odds are and, based on that number, what recommendation Perry will make to owner Arte Moreno and what tack they will take toward the remainder of the 2021 season.
    FanGraphs has a great tool called ‘MLB Playoff Odds’, located here, that takes the Angels current record and projects their winning percentage (W%) the remainder of the season, based on projected team production and strength of schedule (fancy term for describing how many good and bad teams they will face), and combines those numbers to forecast the Halos final end-of-season record and provide a prediction of their playoff odds to make the postseason.
    Below is a graphic showing the Division and Wild Card leaders, across MLB, plus the Angels, in relation to that group:

    2021 FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds for Division Leaders and Los Angeles Angels (as of July 10th, 2021)
    The graphic, above, visually shows the challenge (16.2% of reaching the playoffs) our beloved Halos face the remainder of the season and infers to the difficult decisions facing Minasian and the Angels front office about whether to buy, sell, or a combination of both. To be clear, the Angels have a much greater chance of landing a Wild Card spot (13.6%) at this point, than winning the Division (2.6%), but anything is possible in baseball when you play every game.
    Certainly any of those choices (buy, sell, or hybrid) could be on the table, here. Perry Minasian must weigh the odds of securing a playoff berth against the information available to him at this moment. Money, players and prospects that appear to be available in trade and interest and inquiries from other teams regarding the availability of Angels players, all must be weighed against the backdrop of improving now versus throwing in the towel on 2021, retooling for 2022 and beyond, or trying to compete the remainder of the season. It is complex to say the least.
    For example, the Angels might see a fertile Trade Deadline and know there is a bona fide, ace-level starting pitcher with multiple years of control available that they believe they can acquire to push harder, now, and over succeeding seasons. It may, also, be possible that there are some good, but not great, opportunities and Perry and his team make a modest investment to make the Halos better, now, without sacrificing much of their future. Or maybe the trade market is bare and their opportunities to improve are scarce, so they execute a full selloff, themselves, of their tradable assets to reset for 2022. Or, alternatively, they could sell one or more pieces to interested parties for players and prospects, while simultaneously acquiring one or more pieces to improve the team, and use their depth at certain positions to backfill and reinforce the current squad, continuing to compete in 2021, but hedging their bets, to still win now, while continuing to progress forward.
    Based on the Angels current playoff odds, owner Arte Moreno’s past history and expectations, and the fact that the Halos have a lot of one-year expiring contracts on their current roster, it appears that the Angels have the potential to be both buyers and sellers. Moreno has always had a competing attitude and penchant to spend reasonably, when needed, and despite the Angels being 9 games back in the Division, they are only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card. The current 16.2% playoff odds (both Division and Wild Card odds, combined) could embolden Minasian and Moreno to be more aggressive, now, assuming that number holds or improves over the next two weeks. If, however, their playoff odds fall below the 10% mark, they could lean all the way, fully, to the sell side, too. 
    In the end the Angels front office has an infinitely better understanding of the Trade Deadline market and what is and is not possible. As fans, on the outside looking in, we simply do not have access to all of the information, including trade negotiations, a Major League team like the Halos do.
    However, we, here at Angelswin.com, will attempt to divine the likely trade pieces and even speculate at destinations and possible arrivals. We will make educated guesses, based on the factual information that is available to us, and attempt to point to the likely suspects the Angels might trade away and for, as they approach the 2021 Trade Deadline.
    Do you like the Angels chances of reaching the Playoffs? Comment and share your thoughts in the thread!
    Up next - 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Methodology and Analysis
  10. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Now that we have a sense of the Angels playoff odds (16.2% as of July 10th, 2021), we need to identify their strengths and weaknesses heading into the Trade Deadline. Additionally, it is important to identify a likely list of buyers and sellers, which we will scrutinize at the end of this Trade Deadline Series installment.
    One of the best methods to identify weaknesses, from the author’s perspective, is to simply examine team offense, defense, and pitching production, to-date, for the 2021 season. Based on actual results, peripheral statistics, and Statcast information, any fan can glean how well a team and any individual player has performed over a specified time period. This information, combined with team finances and player contractual obligations, can point and hint to the areas that a GM like Perry Minasian will focus on when discussing potential trades, whether the team is buying or selling.
    So to start we will first look at the Angels offense, focusing first on a statistic called weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which is an excellent catch-all number that shows how a team and individual players perform below or above League-average offensive production. This statistic quantifies run creation and normalizes it, so we can compare players who play in different ballparks and even different eras.
    wRC+ vs. Left-Handed Pitching
    The graphic below shows all MLB teams wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers:

    As you can see, the Angels, to-date, have performed well against left-handed pitching to the tune of a 115 wRC+, good for 3rd overall in MLB. Players like Upton, Ohtani, Gosselin, Rojas, Stassi, Ward, Trout, and Fletcher have all had good success against lefties this year. This is clearly an area of strength for the Halos and a less likely area that Minasian would focus on to improve.
    wRC+ vs. Right-Handed Pitching
    The graphic below shows all MLB teams wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers:

    Against the other side of the mound, the Angels are still above average (106 wRC+), but not quite as consistently good as they are against LHP. The Halos big bats, Trout, Ohtani, and Walsh are destroying RHP on a regular basis with guys like Stassi, Rendon, Upton, and Ward contributing, too. Because the Halos are ranked 7th in MLB, this, too, is an area that Minasian might pay less attention to, but, if the front office does bring in another bat, it would probably be a player that can hit right-handed pitching.
    Now that we have covered offense, we can move on to the pitching side. Here we will focus on a statistic called strikeout percentage minus walk percentage (K%-BB%), which is also a solid, effective number that shows how a team or individual pitcher performs over a specified time period. This statistic is good because it quantifies a pitchers ability to strikeout and walk batters on an individual basis, rather than a rate statistic, giving a purer view of effectiveness regarding how often any particular pitcher puts opposing players on-base.
    So with that, let us examine how the Angels pitching staff is performing against both sides of the plate.
    K%-BB% vs. Left-Handed Hitters
    The graphic below shows all MLB teams K%-BB% versus left-handed hitters:

    Here we can see that the Halos have been a bit below average, ranked 18th, overall, with a K%-BB% of 12.9%. Guys like Iglesias, Quintana, Sandoval, Mayers, Watson, Cobb, and Claudio have all had varying measures of success, whereas the rest of the team has been roughly average (Ohtani) or worse (Bundy and Cishek, for instance). If Minasian plans to pick up more pitching, it may be prudent to target a guy who can punch out left-handed hitters.
    K%-BB% vs. Right-Handed Hitters
    The graphic below shows all MLB teams K%-BB% versus right-handed hitters:

    On the other side, the Angels have performed a touch better, ranked 16th, overall, with a K%-BB% of 15.3%. Names like Iglesias, Ohtani, Heaney, Mayers, Cobb, Canning, and Bundy have performed at a varying, but solid, clip. Again, if Minasian focuses on bringing in pitching, a guy who can get right-handed hitters out would probably be even more useful and, in fact, a starter or reliever that can punch out hitters on both sides of the plate would do wonders for the rotation and/or bullpen.
    Finally, this analysis would not be complete without taking a glance at team defense. Here we will use FanGraphs Defense (Def) statistic which provides an above or below average examination of how a team or an individual player at any specific singular position impacts runs saved or created. The Def statistic is simply fielding runs above average plus a positional adjustment. In the graphic below, team Def is shown, which is a conglomeration of all Angels players in comparison to other teams.
    Team Defense Utilizing FanGraphs ‘Def’ Statistic
    The graphic below shows all MLB teams composite defensive scores:

    As you can see, the Halos have been systemically bad on defense in 2021, which is a marked departure from previous seasons. The Halos are ranked 29th in MLB, overall, with a composite ‘Def’ score of -20.9! Even noted, stalwart defenders like Iglesias, Fletcher, and Lagares have not performed to their normal levels. Names like Upton (LF), Ward (RF), and Suzuki (C) (Pujols too) have been a drain on run prevention, but it is not just them, the whole team appears to be struggling in some form or fashion. If the Angels do become buyers, expect Perry to upgrade where he can, to improve this situation, and hope that the normally good defenders pick it up and execute better on the field.
    Initial Takeaway from the Basic Analysis
    So, the first major takeaway from this examination is that team defense has been a real problem. Being next to dead last in all of baseball will spell trouble in terms of run prevention and it does not help that it appears to be team-wide, making it difficult to find a tangible solution.
    Upton is still on contract and will be difficult to move, so finding a good defensive replacement is probably off the table, not to mention that any acquisition must have a productive bat like Justin. Ward is young and controllable and he has had a very productive offensive season, so far, making him a good, versatile plug-and-play option for Joe Maddon, so he could be moved, but again you will have to replace the offense, as well as the defense, making him a little bit, less likely trade piece. Kurt Suzuki, signed for his previous offensive prowess, has been a black hole on both sides of the ball, making him the most likely piece on the Angels roster to be upgraded in favor of both better offense and defense. The remainder of the position players are either too valuable (Trout and Walsh for instance), on long-term contracts (Rendon and Fletcher for example), or just seem to be underperforming defensively (Iglesias comes to mind). The most likely positions to upgrade here are at backup catcher or, possibly, a short-term solution or even a callup from our Minor League system, to bolster right field, if Minasian feels defense is a top priority.
    Beyond the Halos abysmal team defense, our pitching staff could use a shot in the arm, as well. Clearly some of our starting options have not panned out as Perry Minasian had hoped (Bundy and Quintana are obvious perpetrators) and certain pieces in the bullpen have struggled, as well (Claudio, Watson, and Slegers jump off the page, for instance).
    Finding a controllable ace starting pitcher is always the goal, but even a short-term front-end or solid middle-of-the-rotation starter would help the Angels if they do actively compete the rest of this season. Adding another back-end reliever would do a lot of good for the Angels bullpen, too, if they go for it and may be the least expensive route to improving the team, in trade, from a resource expenditure perspective. It would also be useful if any pitcher the Halos acquire can get both left- and right-handed hitters out, as well. Long-term control is even more desirable, but it will cost much more.
    Finally, team offense does not appear to be an issue overall. The Angels are well above average in run production, so this may not be the priority if the Halos front office looks to improve heading into the Trade Deadline. If they do upgrade a position player, it will more likely be a guy who can hit right-handed pitching well, as the team is a little less productive against righties than lefties. Again, offense is not the Angels biggest problem, but if you are going to upgrade defensively, for example, you might as well acquire a guy who is better, offensively, against the right side of the mound.
    Who are the Buyers and Sellers?
    This question is relatively easy to answer by simply examining the FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds page, again.
    Basically any team sitting at approximately 10% or less is probably a likely seller, willing to move players on expiring contracts (i.e. players who are in their final season with their respective team) or, if they are rebuilding, players that are not in their long-term plans (i.e. players with less overall contractual or team control, for instance). Additionally, teams that are around 10%-15%, are probably sitting on the fence, waiting to see if they improve leading into the Trade Deadline, to determine which way they lean. Finally, any team that is above 15%-20% is a more probable buyer and, thus, looking for short-term rentals or players with more than one year of contractual or team control that might be available in the Trade Deadline market. To be clear each team will have unique circumstances, based on which Division they play in, how many teams in their Division are competing, team finances, owner will-to-win, Wild Card standings, and strength of schedule the remainder of the season, that will impact if they buy, sell, or do both.
    Based on the assumptions, above, the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Athletics, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants are all likely buyers, currently.
    In the middle, the Indians, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Reds, and Cubs are in a bit of a gray area and may wait closer to the Trade Deadline to make any moves, assuming they sustain or improve their performance. It is possible they could make a modest improvement leading up to the Trade Deadline to see if that pushes them further up the win curve, as well, before committing further.
    The remaining teams, the Orioles, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals, Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and, maybe, the Mariners are all probable sellers, barring large winning streaks that put them back into the playoff conversation.
    Knowing who is buying and selling will lend itself to our partially-informed, speculative guesses about who the Angels matchup with in potential deals, whether the Halos are buying and/or selling at the Trade Deadline.
     
    Do you  think the Angels will Buy, Sell, or do Both? Comment and share your thoughts in the thread!
    Up next - 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Keepers, Assets, and Targets
  11. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    So now that we have performed some basic analysis to understand where the Angels are strong and weak and which teams are likely sellers, buyers, or somewhere in-between, we can make more knowledgeable guesses about how the Angels might generally upgrade, whom they might sell, and the probable, more specific target areas of improvement.
    The first step is to determine who the Halos plan to build the team around moving forward into the future. These names represent likely, key, productive players, on the 40-man roster, that are either controllable long-term, are on contract, and/or are difficult to move in a trade:
    C   Max Stassi
    1B Jared Walsh
    2B David Fletcher
    3B Anthony Rendon
    LF Justin Upton
    CF Mike Trout
    RF Jo Adell
    CF Brandon Marsh
    DH Shohei Ohtani
    SP Griffin Canning
    SP Patrick Sandoval
    SP Jose Suarez
    SP Chris Rodriguez
    Most of the identified players above are either under contract for one or more seasons (Trout, Ohtani, Fletcher, Rendon, and Upton), arbitration-controlled for more than the 2021 season (Stassi), or are young and controllable (Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Rodriguez) talent for multiple seasons. This does not mean that one or more of them could not be included in a deal, but the Angels probably want or have to hold on to these names, in all likelihood. Nothing is promised, but this list represents a more probable part of the Angels future.
    Also, there are other players who are borderline keepers, such as Matt Thaiss, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo, that are young, controllable, talented players, but may not have a positional home on future Angels squads. These are the type of guys you want to find playing time for, whether in the Majors or down in the Minors, but may serve the team's future, better, by utilizing their value in trade for a position of need.
    Now that we know who is more likely to stay, you can create a list of those players the Angels are more likely to move before the Trade Deadline. If the Angels are sellers then anyone with an expiring contract, such as Raisel Iglesias for example, would be fair game in discussions with other teams, as seen below:
    SP Alex Cobb
    SP Dylan Bundy
    SP Andrew Heaney
    RP Raisel Iglesias
    SP Jose Quintana
    SS Jose Iglesias
    C   Kurt Suzuki
    OF Juan Lagares
    RP Alex Claudio
    RP Steve Cishek
    RP Tony Watson
    That is a lot of guys heading out the door after this season! Not to mention GM Perry Minasian will have to fill those spots from our farm system, trade, or free agency in order to compete effectively in 2022 and beyond.
    This is why the Angels may be faced with a tough decision leading into the Trade Deadline. If they don’t feel really confident they can sneak into the playoffs, selling is a near certainty. Of course, if they improve in July, a chance at a Wild Card spot could increasingly materialize, which may force Minasian and the front office to retain some, if not all, of the names above.
    So the bottom line is that if the Halos have less than a 10% chance at the playoffs in late July, they are probable sellers. If they are borderline (say no more than a 20% chance to make the playoffs), they could be both buyers and sellers, trying to move one or two key assets in trade, getting back controllable prospects and/or players in return, while at the same time looking at targets of opportunity to bring in for the remainder of the season. Also, if by some miracle, they make a sustained run for the Division in July, Minasian may gamble, if he can, on a much larger transformative transaction, such as a controllable, bona fide, ace-level starter or impact bat.
    Now that we have identified potential keepers and movers, we need to use some of the analysis from the previous articles, to make educated guesses at some of the more probable targets that GM Perry Minasian could focus on.
    Starting with the Angels as buyers there are four, more probable, areas that the Angels front office might earmark for upgrade:
    Backup catcher
    Starting pitching
    Right field
    Bullpen
    As much as everyone wanted Kurt Suzuki to succeed, he has not performed well at all. Known as an offensive-oriented catcher, he has, unfortunately, failed in that capacity and when combined with his very poor defense, he has been a serious liability, despite his apparent rapport with Shohei Ohtani. Finding a backup catcher with good defense and, preferably based on our analysis, the ability to hit right-handed pitching well is a move that would likely bring solid dividends to the team moving forward, particularly if that catcher has long-term team control.
    The Angels were in the hunt for Gerrit Cole, previously, and had interest in Trevor Bauer, more recently, so it is not a secret that the rotation has been a source of great grief for the team over the last few years. Finding an ace-level starter is not an easy task, there are not that many truly good top-of-the-rotation guys out there and gambling on a top prospect, who has little experience against Major League hitters, is also a perilous undertaking. This will not be a simple solution and generally teams do not part with this type of elite starter, so this is less probable, particularly when you consider the Angels odds of qualifying for a Wild Card spot. Here, Minasian is more likely to pick up a front-end or middle-of-the-rotation starter with an expiring contract (i.e. they are a free agent after the end of this season), if the Angels really do decide to push in on this season with the caveat that, should a controllable front-end type target become available, Perry may move assets, now, to make that a reality.
    Beyond the catching corps and rotation, the Angels could possibly pick up a temporary right fielder on an expiring contract. This will depend on a lot of factors, including the continuing production of Taylor Ward and the performance of Angels top prospect Jo Adell, who is slugging the ball well at AAA Salt Lake City, but is still striking out at an elevated rate. Here, it feels like Minasian will only go outside of the organization if he can acquire an inexpensive, temporary solution, otherwise the team is probably best served with one of the internal options, despite the fact that Ward has not been great on defense, but he has been solid on offense, while Adell struggled in his first call up, but has immense potential on both sides of the ball.
    Finally, the bullpen has been a real thorn in the first half of the season, with some acquisitions excelling (Iglesias for instance), while others have been underperforming (Watson and Slegers for example). Basically, if the Angels are competing, this is another area that the front office could probably upgrade without a large expenditure of resources. Finding a reasonably good relief arm, particularly if they are at least decently good against left-handed hitters, would add a lot to the later innings of a ballgame for the Halos.
    Of course there are always scenarios we cannot see from the outside and there is a lot of information the Angels know that we do not have, so there is a fog of war that prevents us, as fans, from seeing the full picture here. However, the basic analysis and identification of assets to keep and pieces to sell, based on strengths and weaknesses, can narrow down the search and provide more probable avenues for not only the Angels, but for us, here at Angelswin.com, to explore.
     
    If you were the Angels GM, which players would you keep long-term, which would you try to sell at the Trade Deadline, and what areas of the roster would you try to upgrade?
    Up next - 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Probable Assets to Acquire
  12. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Special Request: Hope for Education is a small, targeted charity sponsored by Angelswin.com. I am humbly requesting a small donation as we enter the New Year and hope that you are in the giving mood as these kids need help to learn in a safe environment from this very deadly pandemic. Please lend a hand, even if it is only a couple of bucks, it does make a difference. Thank you for your time and attention!
    Important Note: First of all I would like to say Happy New Year! I hope all of you and your families are implementing best-practice safety guidelines as outlined by the Center for Disease Control, including wearing masks out in public, washing your hands often, and exercising physical distancing protocols. Not only is COVID-19 potentially life-threatening there are now reports of long-term physical and psychological damage to those that survive. Take care of yourselves out there both physically and mentally, the Angels family needs to stay strong so all of us can enjoy Mike Trout now and in the future!
     
    At this point in the off-season, it is easy to say that the Angels bullpen is already revamped and, in fact, may continue to evolve even further, prior to Opening Day, after a dizzying array of non-tendered contracts and Rule 5 and trade additions.
    The previous administration placed a lot of emphasis on acquiring relievers through the waiver wire, minor trades, and the rare free agent signing. By focusing resources in other areas, Eppler and company actually did a fair job of building a Major League bullpen, albeit it lacked a true, sustained closer type. Eppler’s front office focused a lot on high spin rates and acquiring arms that threw a good fastball and curveball; the latter is a good pitch that works against both sides of the plate, negating some of the need to find those lockdown lefties.
    Minasian’s reign has yet to give us a lot of information on how he will approach building a good relief corps but there are three data points to discuss here.
    First of all, the quick strike and addition of Raisel Iglesias is significant, as it adds a clear, proven back-end bullpen arm that is capable of closing out games on a regular basis for the Angels. Raisel is stronger from the right-side with his fastball, slider, and changeup combination which can shutdown a right-handed heavy team. Per FanGraphs, out of all qualified relievers in 2020, Iglesias was in the Top 5 of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). In fact, over the last two seasons, he ranks 8th with only lofty names like Nick Anderson, Taylor Rogers, Aroldis Chapman, and Brad Hand, ahead of him. Despite the fact that the Halos, currently, only have him for one season, there is a lot to like about bringing him into the fold for 2021, particularly due to the fact that the Angels are projected to have a fairly tight 5.12 Runs Scored per Game (RS/G) versus an 4.82 Runs Against per Game (RA/G), which means the team may find itself in more close games, where they will lead by a small amount of runs, creating a high leverage situation that Iglesias can help solve.
    Additionally, the Halos front office struck during the Rule 5 Draft, acquiring Jose Alberto Rivera, a young arm from the Astros organization. Rivera features a big fastball, averaging in the high-90’s, curveball, and splitter. Clearly the new Angels front office is gambling that the heater/curveball combination is mature enough to fit in middle relief and, just like the Eppler era, this feels like a worthy gamble, despite the fact that the Angels will need to keep him all season or send him back to Houston if they cannot keep him on the active roster.
    Also, the team recently signed left-hander Alex Claudio to a one-year deal, for $1.125M. Claudio is the pure definition of “soft-tossing lefty” and, as expected, gets left-handed hitters out at a pretty good clip, although he does okay versus right-handed hitters as well. This should give Joe Maddon a specialist option out of the bullpen on an as-needed basis.
    Finally, we can glean some information about the players Minasian non-tendered/traded versus the players he kept on the 40-man roster. Guys like Noe Ramirez, Hoby Milner, and Matt Andriese were lower velocity types, whereas arms like Gerardo Reyes, Luke Bard, Ty Buttrey, Mike Mayers, and Kyle Keller all throw in the mid-to-upper 90’s. High velocity appears to be a real draw for the new Angels GM.
    Notably most of these bullpen arms that were retained have fastball/slider combos in their repertoire lending to the idea that Minasian and company may be making a point to go with guys whose 2nd pitches are sliders, which is a notorious same-side strikeout weapon, i.e. pure strikeout potential seems to be preferred, over creating poor contact or pinpoint control by the new front office.
    Basically, it appears, on the surface, that the initial emphasis is on strong strikeout capability. High strikeout rates are an important element in Major League Baseball so it is a bit refreshing to see a little more importance placed on it, although it did appear that Eppler’s group was on to something regarding high spin rates (difficult for hitters to see) and targeting guys with good curveballs (ability to get batters out on both sides of the plate). We will see how this plays out moving forward with Minasian, but the route he is initially focusing on is also a good path to run prevention, i.e. less hitters on-base results in less runs scored.
    Moving beyond the philosophical discussion, the Angels currently have, as of Dec. 31st, 2020, the following pure, bullpen arms on the 40-man roster (number of Minor League options remaining are in parentheses after each name):
    Luke Bard (1)
    Ty Buttrey (2)
    Alex Claudio (0)
    Raisel Iglesias (0)
    Kyle Keller (1)
    Mike Mayers (0)
    Jose Quijada (1)
    Gerardo Reyes (1)
    Jose Alberto Rivera (R5, 3 after the 2021 season)
    In addition, as mentioned in the Rotation article, Dillon Peters (0), Jaime Barria (0), Felix Pena (1), and Hector Yan (2), may be viewed as starters but they could also, possibly, work out of the bullpen, too. In fact, Barria and Peters are out of options so they will need a home on the active roster if they are to play in 2021.
    So to start, it should be noted that the Angels may or may not retain all of these names. Player’s can always be designated for assignment, so none of this is set in stone yet. Trades, signings, and waiver wire acquisitions could still change the landscape, quickly, too.
    All that being said if you were to take what the Angels have now and line it up into a group of eight relievers to start the season, it may look like this:
    Raisel Iglesias (Closer)
    Mike Mayers (Setup)
    Ty Buttrey (Setup)
    Alex Claudio (Specialist)
    Gerardo Reyes (Middle Relief)
    Luke Bard (Middle Relief)
    Jose Alberto Rivera (Middle Relief)
    Felix Pena (Long Relief)
    Now, certainly, you could substitute Keller or Quijada in middle relief, if you like, but these two, as well as Reyes and Bard, have a Minor League option remaining and the Angels will need Minor League bullpen depth, so a couple of them will start the season down in AAA or AA. Additionally, Peters could easily be the long reliever with Pena starting the season in the Minors, as well.
    When you look at this projection, on paper, the back-end of the bullpen seems fairly strong, particularly with the addition of Iglesias. However, it is the middle of the bullpen that leaves some room for doubt. Reyes, Bard, and Rivera have some good stuff but they are mostly unproven in the Majors, particularly Rivera.
    It might be useful, then, for Minasian to acquire one more quality middle reliever with some experience in the Majors and a pedigree of success. Yes, that is not always easy to find in a relief arm, considering their year-to-year variance, but it is not impossible. Really if we can find one more back-end or good middle reliever, the bullpen will be in pretty good shape and could possibly absorb the loss of an Iglesias, Mayers, or Buttrey, if they were to go on the Injured List for an extended period of time. Additionally, it could allow the Halos front office to option down someone like Bard or Reyes to create more depth or even flat out replace a borderline relief candidate, with a preferred choice, on the 40-man roster.
    Considering how many relievers and Minor Leaguer’s were cut loose, due to financial impacts, finding another impact arm, at a reasonable price, should not be terribly difficult. Based on the Angels own payroll restraints, this will either be a trade, for an inexpensive, controllable, upside-type, or a simple less-costly Major League signing, not dissimilar to Alex Claudio.
    Certainly, Minasian could do more and perhaps he will when it is all said and done, particularly if we do not net a guy like Bauer or some other expensive starter, utilizing the old approach of spending on the bullpen if the market for starters is too overpriced to play in. In the end, the Angels bullpen was a bit above average in 2020 and, with the addition of Iglesias, it likely improved, despite the subtractions, so another addition now or later, at the Trade Deadline, could push the Halos bullpen into the Top 10 in baseball, potentially.
    Expect: It really feels like the Angels can make room for one more solid reliever by possibly trading one of their current relievers (maybe Bard or Peters) or even designating them for assignment, to create space on the 40-man roster. This addition could literally come from anywhere at this moment, through free agency (maybe Brad Hand or Archie Bradley, if the Angels lose out on Bauer, a mid-tier guy like Shane Greene, or perhaps a veteran like Darren O’Day or Mark Melancon) or trade (perhaps someone like Chris Stratton or Richard Rodriguez from the Pirates in a Joe Musgrove based trade or Rowan Wick, Hector Neris, or Scott Oberg, for example).
    Surely, Minasian and company could stand pat and add another arm closer to the Trade Deadline, but the opportunity to strike now, under a new regime that is remaking the team in their own image, may afford a more aggressive, fresh start to our relief corps, heading into 2021.
  13. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Note: I am humbly requesting any donation (even one dollar!) you can make to the Angelswin.com Charity of the Month, Hope for Education! Every dollar can help, so please lend a hand if you are able!
     
    This part of the Primer Series will be difficult to write, at least this year.
    New GM Perry Minasian, despite his many years in baseball, is a wildcard in the main decision-making seat, which constrains our ability to construct an educated guess on team strategy.
    Bottom line is that we, at Angelswin.com, can only speculate based on what we do see and hear.
    So to start, Minasian, in his introduction as the new GM, was quoted stating, “Pitching is going to be a major priority...”. This was obvious to everyone, but it is good to hear him reemphasize the clear need again.
    Also, during the live telecast from Anaheim, Minasian clearly stated that they will improve the team in, “... any way that we can, whether it is offense, defense, or pitching”. He cited the decision, when he was with the Braves front office, to bring in Josh Donaldson on a one-year deal, to provide an impact player and build temporary depth, so it appears that all options to upgrade the team could be on the table.
    Additionally, we can look a bit at his past work in talent evaluation. As Director of Scouting with the Toronto Blue Jays, he is given credit for drafting SP’s Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman and signing international free agent 3B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.. Not a bad list to be associated with heading into a new position and it is indicative of his past and potential scouting ability.
    That is the extent of what we know. He is regarded as a good talent evaluator, excellent communicator, and has performed most of the jobs you can do, while working for a baseball club. It was also mentioned that he has an innate ability to construct rosters. That experience and those traits are a good base to operate from, not dissimilar to former GM Billy Eppler, so fans need to give him time to put his mark on the team and see where it takes our beloved Halos.
    The challenge in front of him is to create a winning environment and team. Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher, and Jo Adell represent a solid set of position players to build around but Moreno likely didn’t fire Eppler just to bring in a new GM to continue the slow boil toward contention. Minasian likely has a mandate to get the team there sooner, not later, which means Perry could upset the applecart by zigging, to the former GM Billy Eppler’s zagging.
    In order to build this winner, Minasian will need to fill the clear holes in the rotation and bullpen, as well as finding a shortstop solution and creating additional catching depth. These needs represent the minimum to be done at the Major League level and, in fact, Minasian has already struck, trading for Jose Iglesias to man the shortstop position in the last year of a very reasonable contract, thereby opening the team to potentially sign one of many free agent shortstops next year when Pujols’ comes off of the books. On top of that move, the Halos acquired RP Raisel Iglesias for a modest return, bringing in, for at least 2021, a top-tier closer to add to the back-end of a largely rebuilt bullpen. These first two deals, on the surface, appear to be value acquisitions, considering the salaries and prospects involved, so more of these types of transactions can compliment and incrementally improve team production, over last year.
    In 2020, from that holistic production side, the Angels were ranked 11th in FanGraphs WAR for hitting. The rotation was ranked 21st and the bullpen, a bit surprisingly, a more respectable 13th place overall. Finally, and most shockingly, the Angels defense was ranked 29th according to FanGraphs ‘Def’ rating. Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 innings (UZR/150) was not much better, coming in 27th.
    So clearly there is more work to do, particularly in the rotation, and probably not as much time to do it in, for our new GM. It seems like both the rotation and team defensive performance can regress a bit in a more positive direction, particularly the latter because the Angels are not that bad on paper, despite swapping Simmons for Iglesias. Beyond that, though, the rotation does, still, need real work, the bullpen needs additional massaging, beyond Iglesias, and adding another bat at the catching position, that can play quality defense, would be nice.
    If, as we suspect, Minasian has a mandate to win soon, all options including a payroll increase and/or trading some of our best prospects could be on the table, potentially.
    So, could it be a run on SP Trevor Bauer in free agency, resulting in a payroll increase, possibly exceeding the CBT threshold, which Arte has only done once, ever, in the history of his ownership?
    Might it be pursuing someone like George Springer to play right field and trading prized prospect Jo Adell as the centerpiece of a trade for a high-quality, controllable starter such as German Marquez, Zac Gallen, Matt Manning, or Luis Patino, for example? Or could Minasian take a wildly different route with roster construction and throw Shohei Ohtani into right field, the position he played for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, and flip the aforementioned Adell in a similar deal for another top-of-the-rotation starter and then sign Kyle Schwarber for the strong side platoon at the DH spot?
    Perhaps the Indians come calling again on Brandon Marsh and the Halos flip him, along with Luis Rengifo and William Holmes, for a starter like Zach Plesac and a reliever like Nick Wittgren? Maybe something even more basic like a Luis Rengifo and Trent Deveaux for Carrasco-based deal?
    The point is that if Arte fully enables Minasian to improve the team, now, there are assets in-place to bring in difference makers whether by free agency or trade.
    Is it wise? Probably not if you are focusing on the long term health of the team like Eppler surely was. If you are Arte, however, the coronavirus pandemic may have made you think twice about the fragility of life; so pushing harder, now, may make more sense in the time you have left as the owner of the team.
    We can only wait and see what happens. There will be a lot of potential for Monday-morning quarterbacking this off-season.
    Expect: The current environment is highly unpredictable, but it does seem like Moreno is pressing, even in light of the financial situation. We believe there will be competitive moves made to improve the 2021 Angels odds of winning, including at least one high-profile deal, although it may not be a clear superstar. Be prepared to see one or more of our top prospects traded, as well. The 2021 Angels will likely be a better team, but it is really difficult to see all of the moving parts and through the fog of WAR, as we progress deeper into a rocky off-season. Odds are strong that Minasian stays somewhere between $5M-$10M under the Luxury Tax, in regard to off-season spending.
  14. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Note from Angelswin.com: Again, I am making a plea for support, to our family here at Angelswin.com, to provide any donation, even $1, to the AW.com sponsored charity-of-the-month, Hope for Education. If I have to go further, I am willing to take unnatural pictures by tdawg's bunk bed to encourage donations or, alternatively, not show them, at the whim of each individual member of the Angelswin.com family. I know times may be tough for many of you, but even a small donation helps toward a larger goal, so I am humbly requesting any kindness you can afford. Thank you for your time and attention!
     
    As we alluded to, in the Introduction article, Major League Baseball (MLB) has taken a financial hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Clearly the abbreviated season combined with a complete lack of in-person attendance at ballgames put a big financial hit on the game. Arte Moreno, himself, indicated revenues came in well short of projections. This financial impact is not insignificant and the likelihood that 2021 will take a similar hit is high.
    Why?
    Well, let us just talk it out here. Assuming President-elect Biden takes office on January 20th and, in a likely scenario, puts the country on a 30-60-day lockdown (or some hybrid mask requirement), that would immediately place us in early-to-late March.
    From there, a probable phased opening of non-critical businesses would take place, not dissimilar to what happened in 2020. Basically, a larger subset of businesses would open and the country would test the COVID-19 stress level on the population. If cases return at a rate higher than expected that would have a very negative impact on any proposed baseball season.
    However, if the reemergence is successful, stadium play, likely in a limited form, could potentially take place later in the year. Think, absolutely no more than 50% stadium capacity (probably less) in what would likely be another abbreviated regular season. Note this is probably the most optimistic scenario. There is a high likelihood that even if the country successfully reopens that pandemic experts and scientists will almost certainly recommend that large gatherings do not occur within a several month period, even after a clean societal reemergence.
    The bottom line is that 2022 will be financially rocky for the country and MLB, which will almost certainly result in low to medium attendance, at best, and possibly another shortened baseball season, based on what MLB decides, and is even allowed to do, in a continuing COVID-19 pandemic environment. It could be a 162-game, televised-only, season or some mashup of televised-only and in-person attendance games, ranging anywhere above 60 games. Basically more significant financial impacts to baseball, which brings us to the Los Angeles Angels financial situation.
    Here is a rough snapshot of the projected Angels 2021 payroll situation as of December 7th, 2020:

    Table 1 - 2021 Los Angeles Angels Projected Payroll
    The Angels current Average Annual Value (AAV) payroll sits at about $181M, which is $29M below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $210M for 2021. This is in-line with what FanGraphs RosterResource.com and Spotrac.com show, as well. The arbitration salaries, in Table 1, were pulled, as usual, from MLBTradeRumors.com yearly Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2021 series, this year utilizing Method #3 numbers.
    Does this mean the Angels can spend $29M?
    Based on the current economic environment in baseball and the likelihood of another COVID-19-impacted season, the answer may be no.
    First of all most teams keep some sort of reserve cushion of payroll space to start off each season in order to maintain flexibility heading into the Trade Deadline. For the Halos that will likely be about $10M or so, automatically lowering their available payroll space down to $19M.
    Moreno’s history shows a trend of modest payroll increases year-to-year, keeping pace with a rising CBT threshold but nothing more or less. During new GM Perry Minasian’s live interview at Angels stadium, Arte did clearly state payroll would not go down, but offered little more. Based on this we will presume the Angels have $19M to spend this off-season for the purposes of the Primer Series, possibly more if the Angels target one or more of Moreno’s aforementioned “impact” players.
    Also you can clearly interpret the Angels recent non-tender of several Angels relievers as a sign the Angels will probably be fiscally conservative in 2021, based on the notable impacts to the U.S. economy and MLB. The trade for Jose Iglesias, as an addition by subtraction scenario, in conjunction with the Halos moves to kick Hansel Robles, Matt Andriese, Justin Anderson, Keynan Middleton, and Hoby Milner to the curb, will keep the payroll effectively neutral. As a lone counterpoint, the Angels, just today, executed a trade for RP Raisel Iglesias, who is slated to receive $9.125M in 2020, adding a substantial amount to the payroll, reducing the total projected available payroll space by about 25%.
    It is not just the Angels, either, as evidenced by the Indians placing Brad Hand on waivers (and subsequently releasing him), the Reds trading Raisel Iglesias to the Halos, and the apparent financially-strapped Phillies rumored to be shopping Zack Wheeler. Even perfectly viable free agents that you would expect to pursue multi-year deals, such as Robbie Ray, Drew Smyly, Marcus Stroman, and Kevin Gausman, have selected one-year deals and/or accepted the Qualifying Offer, rather than test a clearly weak free agent market for players.
    This simply means that the Halos are likely to stay within a tight range of $19M. Certainly, Arte can choose to go up or down but, again, history does not support the notion of a spending spree and internal and external economic factors make it much less likely to happen. As much as this off-season might be a prime opportunity for Moreno to exercise the teams financial muscle for a short 1-2 year period, this year is proving to be the most unlikely year in recent history for him to do it. Only time will tell the tale.
    One final note regarding MLB and financial expenditures. Despite the clear hits teams are taking due to the pandemic shutdown, there appears to be a collective move by MLB and the owners to take advantage of the situation, making deep cuts to Minor League Baseball (MiLB) team franchises, effectively depressing 2021 arbitration and free agent salaries via these declarations of being in a financial crunch, and cutting out wide swaths of front office personnel and MiLB players.
    As an outsider looking in, this seems, to me, to be a self-destructive attitude in a business that makes so much money according to Forbes and other publications. Clearly local revenues, which are a main contributor to individual team revenues, have taken a hit due to non-existent ticket sales in a shortened season but the extensive cuts feel deeper than needed. When you look at the numbers it is clear that not playing a full regular season with no ticket sales does result in large losses. However, a full regular season with, perhaps, at least 40% of a typical season’s in-person attendance would bring MLB, as a whole, to a break-even level, give or take.
    The point is that the latter (40% in-person attendance) is probably a less likely scenario based on our earlier discussion, thus MLB will probably struggle again in 2021 and the owners, even in the face of a fight with the Player’s Union, will probably look to make additional cuts when and where they want and can. The near-future of MLB is not particularly bright, so let’s hope cooler heads prevail and a compromise can be reached, not only in entertaining, at least, a full or partial, televised-only regular season, but also with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) and continued baseball for the next several seasons. MLB’s image is teetering on a tightrope with little room for error so they need to get this right.
  15. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
     
    Special Request from Angelswin.com: This year, after discussion with Chuck, we have decided to tie-in the 2021 Angelswin.com Primer Series with a wonderful GoFundMe effort called “Hope for Education”.
    This is a focused fundraiser, to help ten needy families in Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico, obtain laptops for educational use in this challenging COVID-19 pandemic environment. These families are unable to afford these computers, themselves, and so it is up to charitable people and donors to help bridge the gap so these children can continue to learn, safely, from their homes.
    Education is very important to me, personally, and Chuck and I are asking our fellow Angels fans to contribute to this very worthy cause, organized and supported, in-part, by a former colleague of mine and her friend. Any amount is appreciated and you can donate here to help them reach, and even exceed, their initial goal:

    Donate here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/give-a-child-a-chance-4-education
     
    Introduction
    Chaos.
    That is probably the right word to describe the year 2020 and the disorder and bedlam around the country, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a direct impact on baseball and sports in general.
    In addition to the country’s turmoil, a battle is looming between the Player’s Union and team owners. Real and potential reductions in scouts, Minor League farm systems, and front office personnel have plagued the professional ranks. Real or feigned cutbacks in team payroll are already heavily influencing the 2020-2021 off-season. Coronavirus impacts, to the industry as a whole, are striking players and families, now, while the long-term impact of a poor U.S. response to the pandemic now threatens the 2021 regular season as well.
    Yeah, lot’s of chaos.
    Set to this scene, the Angels entered the off-season without a Major League General Manager (GM), both Assistant General Managers, and a slew of personnel cuts and player non-tenders that seem destined to make this another challenging off-season for the Halos.
    More chaos, more entropy.
    The Angels appear to have set sail with their long-tenured shortstop Andrelton Simmons, although a very unlikely reunion is still a possibility in free agency. Steady reliever Cam Bedrosian is gone, after an outright assignment and subsequent decision to elect free agency. Relief pitcher (RP) Jacob Barnes, another looming arbitration decision in a depressed economic environment, was picked up by the Mets on waivers. Additionally, non-factor’s from our 2020 roster, like starting pitcher (SP) Julio Teheran, are mercifully off of our payroll.
    This leaves Mike Trout, a champion looking for a supporting cast, yearning for the changes needed to take the next step toward contention with an uncomfortable amount of signs possibly pointing in the wrong direction. Mr. Trout may or may not be growing concerned about when the Angels are planning to flip the script and shove; and fans, from the outside, looking in, are thinking the same thing, based on team standings and zero visits to the postseason over the last several years.
    Unless Albert Pujols suddenly decides to retire, the Angels will have some payroll space but will have to strategically determine where to spend it, to fill the multiple holes on their 40-man roster. Trades are certainly a possibility with an improved farm system but everything has a price and the Angels may not be able to absorb the loss of quality Minor League depth; you have to give to get. That could derail the long-term farm system rebuild that former GM Billy Eppler initiated and new GM Perry Minasian just inherited, which is just beginning to come to fruition but could provide controllable talent to address some, if not all, of the holes on the Angels roster.
    Save for a complete out-of-character turnaround by owner Arte Moreno to push the pedal-to-the-metal and exceed the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT) by a hefty amount, the new Angels management team will have a finite set of resources to answer the pressing questions in the rotation and bullpen as well as at catcher (C) and shortstop (SS).
    To be clear it is not all doom and gloom.
    There were some bright spots in 2020 that gave some hope for the future. Mike Trout had another solid season. David Fletcher continued to shine on both sides of the ball. Young prospect Jo Adell got his feet wet, as our new right fielder (RF). Jared Walsh came up to play first base (1B) and showed why his reputation with the bat is so well deserved. Starting pitcher (SP) Dylan Bundy and relief pitcher (RP) Mike Mayers looked like stars on the mound. SP’s Griffin Canning and Jaime Barria had really solid showings this year, as well. The question is can they repeat or even build off of these performances? Can the rotation and team defense regress toward the mean, improving on the poor showings in 2020?
    As we do every year, Angelswin.com will attempt to answer these pressing team questions and provide some visibility into team decision-making. Because of the increased chaos and entropy in baseball, the conclusions will likely be more general and the Primer Series more succinct simply due to a historical lack of clear general manager guidance, quotes, and transactions and a disarray and lack of visibility around baseball in general.
    So, just like the 2020 baseball regular season, enjoy the abbreviated 2021 Angelswin.com Primer Series!
  16. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    It is at this moment where we need to take a moment, stop to remind ourselves, and extend a tremendous thank you to Arte Moreno for authorizing the largest extension contract in the history of Major League Baseball to lock up perhaps the Greatest Of All Time (the G.O.A.T.!!!!), our very own center fielder, Mike Trout.
    Thank you Arte! Great job Eppler! Mike we love you!
    As fans we are living the dream by actually signing our best player to a career extension and preparing to enter a period of greater team relevancy in terms of the potential to go to the playoffs. Next season should be a marked improvement across the entire roster as Moreno and Eppler have upgraded at multiple positions.
    By the time late May/early June rolls around, Trout should be flanked in center field by Justin Upton and our emerging number one prospect, Jo Adell and the middle infield will likely consist of Simmons at SS and Fletcher at 2B. First base might be one or a combination of Walsh, Thaiss, Pujols, or a free agent or trade acquisition. Third base has been markedly improved for the next several years via the signing of the best 3B in baseball, Anthony Rendon. Designated hitter will certainly be some combination of Ohtani, Pujols, and other members of the team cycling through the spot on days off from playing in the field.
    Our rotation has marginally improved through the acquisition and signing of Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, respectively, adding to the existing rotation base of Ohtani and Heaney plus one or more of Barria, Canning, Sandoval, Andriese, and Suarez. The bullpen should have a host of familiar names like Buttrey, Robles, Middleton, Anderson, Ramirez, Bard, Cole, and Mayers, among others.
    The point is that not only will there be significant upgrades but team depth will have improved once again, allowing the team to absorb temporary and even long-term injuries without losing much overall effectiveness. Beyond that the Angels deserve some better luck in staying healthy in 2020 (i.e. team health BABIP will hopefully return to the mean). If you are one of the fans out there worried about starting pitching, all the Angels really have to do is tread water up until the Trade Deadline where Eppler can look for upgrades to improve the team at that time.
    By increasing our overall production and hopefully being healthy to start the year, the Angels will be better positioned to compete in an American League West that appears to be heading towards greater parity among the five teams in the Division. Houston will be a tough nut to crack but the Athletics also performed well and project to do so again in 2020. The Rangers have a new media deal and are flush with cash so there may be unexpected fireworks from Texas, too. Even the Mariners are starting to pick up steam towards contention. All of this is contributing to a much more level playing field, if not this year, by the 2021-2022 time frame. Greater parity likely means that less overall wins (think 90 wins or so) are needed to claim the A.L. West Division crown.
    No matter what, Angels fans should enjoy their ride on the Mike Trout express for the next few years because that freight train is leaving the station on its journey to the playoffs!
    As a parting thought, the table below summarizes the last three years of Mike Trout hitting baseballs:

     
  17. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    This series will attempt to identify other potential front-line starters that the Angels can possibly trade for and we will continue the series looking at the New York Mets, SP/RP Seth Lugo.
    Facts
    Contract Status - Seth has entered his first year of arbitration control, in 2020, and settled with the Mets for a yearly salary of $2M for next season. After that he will have the additional, standard two years of arbitration control for a total of three years of team control. If he does return to a starting role, it would not be surprising to see his 2021 salary jump to somewhere in the $4.5M-$5.5M range and in his last year to something approaching the $8M-$9M realm.
    Repertoire (2019 as a Reliever) - Four-Seam Fastball (34.8%, 94.5 mph), Curve Ball (23.4%, 79.6 mph), Two-Seam Fastball (22.2%, 94.0 mph), Slider (13.3%, 87.9 mph), and Change Up (6.1%, 87.8 mph)
    Statcast Information - Seth has a nice five-pitch mix with his four-seam, two-seam (sinker), and curve ball being the best three of the group. In particular his curve ball has an incredible amount of spin, sitting at 3,285 rpm, which is pretty ridiculous. Those three primary weapons helped Lugo to have a very good season throwing 80 IP out of the bullpen and could serve him well if he moves back to the rotation as he, himself, has indicated he wants to do.
    Although Lugo's change up and slider have interesting characteristics, they have not developed into put away weapons yet. The other three, however, generate high strikeout rates and poor contact, against both sides of the plate, making Seth a good candidate to return to a starter role.
    Despite the fact that Seth threw in relief in 2019, take a look at this Statcast graphic below of all his four-seam fastballs in the zone last year:
     

    The results? A 43.2 K% with a corresponding .173 Batting Average Against, across 81 plate appearances. Pretty sick numbers even in a relief role!
    Outside of the zone?
     

    Results are, expectedly, even better, as Seth struck out 51.4% of the hitters and held them to a ridiculous 0.074 Batting Average Against, across a modest 37 plate appearances!
    To be clear, moving to a starting or long-man relief role would likely result in a lower average velocity and decreased effectiveness of his four-seam and other pitches but when you start at such an amazing level it may not be too noticeable.
    Injury History Risk - Medium-High (Spondylolisthesis, partial tear of ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), and right shoulder impingement)
    Three-Year History -
     

    As you can see, Seth's K-BB% has significantly increased year-to-year over the past three seasons. Certainly, over the last two years, his move to the bullpen can be directly attributable to that improvement but it is also partly due to the increased use of his exceptional curve ball and the upgraded performance of his four-seam fastball. Additionally, his pitch mix usage has fooled batters more, creating poor contact off the bat, particularly against LHH's.
    Also here is Lugo's batted ball data:
     

    Seth creates a fair amount of ground ball contact with a lot of balls getting pulled or hit up the middle. Additionally, his line drive contact has gone down year-to-year, again, in-part, due to the move to the bullpen but also attributable to his improved four-seam fastball and curve ball.
    Why?
    Already this off-season the Mets have added a lot of back-end and relief pitching through free agency.
    Behind the Mets starting four of deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, and Matz, they recently signed Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello on one-year deals to supplement the rotation. Additionally, the Mets signed reliever Dellin Betances to an already strong back-end four of Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach. This leaves little room in the rotation or the bullpen for both Lugo and Robert Gsellman, although if the Mets placed both of them into late inning roles they would have a very frightening relief corps.
    However, Seth has made it abundantly clear that he wants to be a starter, in his words an "ace" for the Mets or another team. Lugo had been a starter his entire career up until the 2016-2017 off-season where he played for Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic and ended up with a partial tear of his UCL.
    This forced him to miss the first two months of the 2017 season until June where he continued pitching out of the rotation for a total of 101.1 IP, across 18 starts and 19 games. Even in this abbreviated season with his lingering arm injury he still had solid peripherals. Certainly the move to the bullpen has only strengthened his numbers but it seems pretty clear that Lugo could still thrive in a starting role, particularly with his broad arsenal and above average four-seam, curve ball, and sinker.
    All of this lends itself to the idea that someone like Lugo might be available in a trade and his ability to work as a starter or reliever would probably spark interest from multiple teams. In particular, the Angels seem well-suited to placing him in a six-man rotation where they could ease him back into a starting role, allowing him to find his groove in Anaheim.
    Proposed Trade
    Because the Mets have utilized Seth as a reliever, his surplus value as a trade chip is slightly depressed versus what you could market his worth for as a starter.
    However, no matter how you parse it, Lugo does have desirability and New York knows this. In terms of surplus value, Seth probably has close to $35M due to his aforementioned three years of team control and the value he can bring out of the bullpen, even if he fails as a starter.
    That surplus value is probably two good prospects (think Top 10) or one good prospect plus two mid-tier prospects. Alternatively it could be a Major League-ready player like Luis Rengifo plus a lower-level prospect, for example.
    Realistically, looking at the Mets current projected roster they have pretty good position players around the diamond. However, it has been rumored that they might be shopping Jed Lowrie and Dominic Smith, which could create potential depth needs. If they are concerned about Rosario at SS they might like a player such as Luis Rengifo to platoon a bit with him since Amed hits LHP so well but RHP very poorly, which Luis is better at hitting. Alternatively, they might like to have someone like Taylor Ward who could play some 3B and 1B and in the outfield corners. Both Ward and Rengifo still have options so the Mets could move them up and down as needed throughout the season.
    Beyond those two players though, New York may prefer to restock their dwindling farm system instead. In that case they would be targeting two of our Top 10 prospects, probably and we would be offering something from the group of Jordyn Adams, Jose Soriano, Chris Rodriguez, Jerimiah Jackson, Matt Thaiss, Jahmai Jones, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, or Patrick Sandoval, in addition to the aforementioned Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward.
    So a trade might look something like this:
    Angels send SS/2B Luis Rengifo and OF D'Shawn Knowles to the Mets in exchange for SP/RP Seth Lugo
    Alternatively, if they prefer pitching in return, more, they might prefer a grouping like this instead:
    Angels send SP Jose Suarez and OF Jordyn Adams to the Mets in exchange for SP/RP Seth Lugo
    Finally, if the Mets want to go prospect heavy, they could prefer the following:
    Angels send OF Jordyn Adams, SS Jeremiah Jackson, and OF Trent Deveaux in exchange for SP/RP Seth Lugo
    Conclusion
    Seth Lugo is similar to Carlos Martinez, insofar that their injury risk profiles are elevated. Certainly a partial UCL tear is nothing to trifle about but at the same time, Lugo has a tantalizing five-pitch mix with an absurdly high spin rate on his curve ball, able to successfully attack batters on both sides of the plate and the UCL tear is nearly four years in the rear view mirror.
    More importantly, based on the reports, he wants to not only be a starter but be an ace for any team and it appears that the Mets will not likely have that position available for him in 2020 because they are already six starters deep, unless they trade someone, which could very well include Seth.
    For the Angels, obtaining three years of a competent pitcher would be very useful and they could have Lugo start, be a long man, or pitch in high-leverage relief, the door really is wide open. As a starter, Seth would certainly not be throwing at a higher relievers velocity but the low-to-mid nineties should still allow him to operate in the 3.00-4.00 ERA range, particularly with his nasty curve ball and quality sinker to pair up with his good four-seam fastball.
    Seth will not come cheap but any good pitcher is going to cost the Angels in MLB-ready players or prospect capital and if the price is right, he represents a mid-rotation option with the potential for upside, based on his Statcast data and results to-date.
  18. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    There are only two words you need to remember for 2020 in Right Field:
    Jo Adell.
    Certainly Brian Goodwin will factor into the playing time, perhaps even more than we anticipate, but the light will be shining on the Angels top prospect as he is nearly a lock to be called up early in the season, perhaps even cracking the Opening Day roster.
    As Jeff Fletcher recently noted, the Halos may not even be concerned about his service time due to the fact that a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will have to be negotiated prior to the 2022 season and one of the hot topics is player service time, due to some high profile cases, including the current, ongoing one, Kris Bryant is fighting. The potential result of a new CBA could be a complete rework of player service time that would possibly redefine Adell's overall years of control. Realistically, the Angels will probably error on the side of caution and wait until they gain the additional year of control which also, per Fletcher, should not be to long after the season begins.
    Regardless, Jo appears to be ready for the challenge of playing full or part-time in right field for the Angels in 2020. Below is a snapshot of his batter splits in the Minors over the last three seasons per Baseball-Reference.com:



    Each season he has shown pretty consistently equal splits against both sides of the mound, perhaps favoring LHP slightly which is not surprising and points to Jo being an everyday player and potential star in the making if it all breaks right.
    However, fans should temper their expectations for the Halos young star. Adell, currently, has some swing and miss to his game that could translate into his first couple of years in the Majors. Basically, he may struggle with strikeouts early on in his career as he adjusts to big league pitching and he would certainly not be the first to do so in the history of baseball careers.
    More to the point, the Steamer projection system, across 600 plate appearances (PA's), only sees a .241/.295/.405 slash line, good for an 85 wRC+ from Adell in 2020. However, Dan Szymborski's 2020 ZiPS projection sees more:

    Certainly Jo has the talent to exceed that Steamer slash line (or even the ZiPS line) but every player has variance in their total performance and migrating to the Majors can prove to be a challenge for any young player. That being said, Adell's floor appears high, as his right field defense should be solid and, with his power, he is very likely to contribute hitting-wise, probably, in the back of the order, in regard to total run production.
    Luckily, too, if Adell struggles, the veteran Brian Goodwin, who himself had a nice year of production in 2019, can bridge the gap, picking up the remainder of the games that Jo does not play. Additionally, the Angels have Michael Hermosillo who can also accrue playing time, particularly very early in the season, probably, hitting against left-handed pitching, which he excels at, creating a nice platoon with either Goodwin or Adell, as needed. It should be noted that Steamer believes both Brian and Michael will not exceed Jo's projected wRC+, as the projection system has them pegged at 83 and 73 wRC+, respectively. Remember that projection systems are generally conservative, so the author believes all three of them can exceed those projections handily.
    Also, to be clear, the Angels might best be served by signing a player to man first base that has some outfield experience in case one or all of our right field options falter, to ensure production remains steady, but that may be a luxury Eppler cannot afford right now which is understandable considering that team payroll is creeping toward the Luxury Tax limit for 2020 ($208M).
    Names like Mancini, Bell, and Castellanos would add additional firepower and depth to the 2020 Angels squad but are probably not in the cards, giving young prospects like Jared Walsh, Matt Thaiss, and Taylor Ward or an established veteran, like Tommy La Stella, more time at the position next season, foregoing the additional depth another outside acquisition might bring, that can split time at the cold corner and in the outfield.
    Kole Calhoun served the Angels well for multiple seasons in right field, but the position is about to be given a super-shot of adrenaline for the next several seasons and it could not have come at a better time with the Halos positioning themselves to make a real run at the A.L. West Division.
    We here at Angelswin.com are very excited to see what Jo Adell can do in 2020 and beyond!
  19. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    In 2020, Justin Upton will be entering his 14th professional season in Major League Baseball at the tender age of 32 years young. He is one of those guys, like Brett Anderson, that you feel like they have played forever and should be old men but they still have kick and life left in them as they progress through the seasons.
    Certainly, last year is one of those seasons that Justin would prefer to forget.
    In 2019, Upton ended a 10-year streak of playing 130 games or more each season, playing in only 63 Major League games to the tune of a weak wRC+ of 92, which also broke his streak of posting at least a wRC+ of 105 over that same time period.
    Uncharacteristically, Justin suffered from ailments, including a quad and knee injury, that ultimately limited his playing time and forced him to end his season early to receive treatment. The good news is that he appears to be recovering well and is projected to return to good health prior to Spring Training.
    This is good because the Angels really need Upton to recover to form. His offensive woes in 2019, most likely tied directly to his injuries, can be seen in his three-year hitting history, below:
    Justin Upton's Three-Year (2017-2019) Hitting History

    It should be noted that Justin has a career wRC+ of 120, so, other than last year, he has been above his own average during his tenure with the Angels. Really last year seems to be an injury-related abnormality.
    In that light, assuming Upton recovers well and is healthy to start the 2020 campaign, it would not be unexpected to see his numbers regress to his career mean and see a more productive season (say a wRC+ in the 115 to 125 range) out of the Angels left fielder.
    This brings me to one important note. Justin has been strikingly poor against LHP the last two seasons. Quite honestly when the author looked this up during mid-season 2019, it was stunning to see how bad the numbers were, as it was unexpected:
    Justin Upton's Five-Year (2015-2019) Hitting History Vs. LHP

    In fact, over the last five years, he has had three really bad offensive seasons (2015: wRC+ of 58 , 2018: wRC+ of 66, and 2019: wRC+ of 47) against them. On the flip side he had better years in 2016 and 2017 where he had a wRC+ of 100 and 202, respectively, both on elevated BABIP numbers (.300 and .369, individually). He has been wildly inconsistent against lefties and the trend is worrisome.
    To be clear poor production against LHP is not going to hurt the 2020 Angels too much. In fact, the Angels can mitigate this by simply having a back-up outfielder such as Goodwin, Hermosillo, or even Ward, pick-up some of Justin's at-bat's against them. The Angels could even acquire another bat to play 1B with some outfield experience to split time between the two positions to pick up some of the slack.
    One thing Upton has done well, consistently, is hit RHP:
    Justin Upton's Five-Year (2015-2019) Hitting History Vs. RHP

    People do not realize or want to recognize what an accomplished hitter Justin has been in his thirteen seasons in Major League Baseball. Recently, on Twitter, @MLB asked the question, "Who is the best left fielder of the 2010's?", and Upton came in last, vote-wise, which is a shame but is a by-product of his relatively low profile in baseball. Certainly Braun, Gordon, and Yelich are great players but Ryan has a PED's history, Alex was a strong defender but not nearly as good of a hitter, and Christian may go down as the best LF of all-time but he picked up the most recency bias in the voting process, perhaps deservedly so.
    The point is that Upton has been a durable power-hitter across his entire career and heading into his age 32 season, there is no reason to believe that 2020 will be any different for him, from an offensive perspective.
    Defensively, it might be the same or it might begin getting progressively worse. By both FanGraphs and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Justin has been below average, mostly via unforced errors and an imprecise throwing arm. His range has been about average as well as his Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Basically as he continues to age, his defense will get worse and his tendinitis issue from last season may or may not contribute to his defensive performance moving forward, only time will tell.
    It is this potential for worsening defensive skills that will ultimately drive Upton to the designated hitter spot once Pujols contract expires or he retires. Basically, Brandon Marsh, one of our really good young prospects, took a huge stride forward near the end of the Minor League season in the Arizona Fall League and he will almost assuredly be ready to play in the Majors next year or the year after.
    So these next two seasons will be the last that the Angels place Justin in left field, based on what happens with Pujols. Once that change occurs the Angels will have an incredible outfield of Trout, Adell, and Marsh, which should be very exciting for Angels fans as all three have really dynamic tools and Mike Trout is, of course, Mike Trout.
    Upton is owed $72M over the next three seasons. When Eppler signed him the Angels were, in-part, paying for his durability and for the most part he has been on the field pretty consistently minus last season. This is actually a trend across many of the players that Eppler is acquiring as evidenced by the Bundy trade and the Teheran signing.
    Having good players produce on a regular basis is what carries teams successfully through 162-game seasons as well as having excellent team depth at every position. Justin is a good example of this quality, consistent production.
    Finally, if Brandon Marsh has a breakout season in 2020 or 2021, there is always a possibility that the Angels might try to trade Upton, particularly if Justin also has an excellent season and the Halos are, for some reason, out of contention. This seems really unlikely and is further complicated by the fact that Upton has a no-trade clause, perhaps making this a moot conversation, but if the player and management agree a move is best for everyone involved, it could be a long-shot possibility, but highly doubtful.
    The expectation should be that Justin Upton will continue to play at an above average level for the next three seasons and, when Pujols is gone, take over full-time designated hitter duties, perhaps with a touch of left field, first base, and pinch hitter appearances until he, too, leaves after the 2022 season is complete and the Angels move forward with young prospects like the aforementioned Marsh and possibly others like Jordyn Adams or Trent Deveaux for example.
    Next up is the Right Field article of the Primer Series.
  20. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Ever since the Angels missed out on Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler (not to mention Keuchel, Ryu, and Bumgarner), some Angels fans have been in panic mode, worried about what feels, to them, like a half-season of accomplishment (Rendon, Bundy, and Teheran), since we have not acquired a front-line starter yet.
    In the 2020 Angelswin.com Primer Series: Rotation, I advocated for a Cole signing as I felt it was the best application of resources in the free agent market to acquire a bonafide ace starter to be the tip of the spear in the Angels rotation.
    Unfortunately, like many of the top pitchers available, Cole seemingly was always going to go to another team, in his case the Yankees. The same held true for Strasburg, Wheeler, and Bumgarner, who signed with the Nationals, Phillies, and Diamondbacks, respectively, specifically because they wanted to play and live in those cities. Really the Angels had no real chance to sign any of them without massively overspending. Letting them go and shifting momentary focus was the right thing to do for the health and competitiveness of the franchise.
    As disappointing as it was, losing out on many of the top free agent starting pitchers, there were always just as many starters available in trade, albeit they may not be as elite as Gerrit or Stephen were. Improvement can come from many different sources and since we have missed out on the best targets, available in free agency, it is now time to turn to the trade market instead.
    Over the next few weeks, until the Angels acquire at least one more starting pitcher, we, here at Angelswin.com, would like to present a series of articles on prospective rotation targets in the trade market. To be clear, once the Halos have brought in a front-line starter, this series will abruptly stop as there will be no further need to continue publishing the individual articles in all likelihood.
    Here is a list of starting pitchers that we will discuss in this series, in no particular order:
    Nathan Eovaldi Matt Boyd Tyler Mahle Carlos Martinez David Price Marcus Stroman Eduardo Rodriguez Chris Archer Jose Urena Domingo German Joe Musgrove Carlos Carrasco Seth Lugo Michael Fulmer Jon Gray Mike Clevinger Josh Hader  
    Most of these pitchers throw in the mid-90's velocity range or they have strong pedigrees in terms of potential or actual performance. Some of them are currently throwing as relievers but were starters as recently as 2017-2018. All of them have interesting characteristics that can make them either front-line rotation candidates or at least give strong performances on a consistent basis, to help the Halos win ballgames. Some of them have a very steep price that the Angels are unlikely to pay, but could if they are willing to sacrifice good players and/or prospects. Additionally, some are much more likelier targets than others, based on injury risk and other value-added factors. Finally, this is not a complete list so the author will reserve the right to add a name or two if needed, if we even get that much further into the post-season without trading for another starter.
    One more note, the final date to exchange arbitration numbers is approaching on January 10th. Teams and arbitration-eligible players must exchange salary figures for what they believe the player in question should be paid for the 2020 season. If a salary cannot be agreed upon prior to that date, it will go to an arbitration hearing sometime over the next month or so. Teams and players can continue to negotiate after salary figures are exchanged. A lot of teams and players come to an agreement prior to the January 10th deadline.
    I bring this up because there will be a lot more clarity to the trade market soon, assuming a lot of players settle their arbitration salaries prior to the date above. Additionally the third base trade market is being held up by the Kris Bryant service time grievance and the SS trade market is being postponed by the Francisco Lindor decision resulting in many other trades being put on-hold until there is greater clarity with the elite players available in trade.
    This means that the trade market should, hypothetically, kick into high gear within the next couple of weeks once some players have agreed to arbitration salaries, Chicago knows whether or not they have one or two years of control over Kris, and the Indians decide whether or not they are moving Francisco to start the 2020 season.
  21. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    NOTE: This article contains a detailed summary of each prospective bullpen candidate under the "Spoiler" bar. Some of you may just want to jump to the conclusion so the player contents are hidden from view. If you want to read that section, simply click on the bar and dive deeper into each of our reliever candidates, there are some interesting tidbits.
    In 2019, the Angels continued to develop a core group of relief options that produced to the tune of 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) across 761.2 innings pitched (IP). The latter number was the 2nd most IP, just behind the Rays bullpen at 772 IP. Assuredly, Eppler and staff would like to not only improve the bullpen's production, but also reduce the total number of IP, for the group as a whole, if possible.
    The good news is that most of that relief corps will remain this season and a key reliever, Keynan Middleton, should return to the fold, which could provide a real boost to a squad full of upside and potential, capable of closing out the later innings of any ballgame. It is the hope that the bullpen will potentially improve on their 2019 performances, giving reason to believe that the Angels relievers, as a collective, can build on last years 16th ranked production level and become a Top 10 relief staff.
    To start let us review 2019 results for the current, projected, 40-man relief staff as of December 16th, 2019:

    As you can see, the Halos bullpen was led by Hansel Robles (1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR)) and Ty Buttrey (1.4 WAR). Other contributors included Noe Ramirez, Cam Bedrosian, Taylor Cole, Felix Pena, and Justin Anderson. The belief is that the group can potentially take a nice step forward in 2020 and there is reason to feel this could be the case.
    Part of that solution will come directly from upgrades made in the rotation to, funny enough, relieve the relievers. If the starting rotation can eat up more quality innings, the bullpen will, ideally, be fresh on a more regular basis, which generally should equate to some modest level of improved performance. Additionally, some relievers may make some needed adjustments to improve their performance. Finally, there is a reasonable likelihood that Eppler and the front office staff will still add to this group prior to Opening Day, next year.
    To better understand what the Halos have let us take an in-depth look at each relief candidate and what they can bring to the table in 2020. Simply click on the Spoiler bar to unroll the comprehensive, individual player analysis. Note that data is pulled from FanGraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, and BaseballSavant.com:
    Likely Outcome: The Angels will continue to use the waiver wire to pick up relief targets of opportunity as the off-season continues and avoid expending resources as is typical for this front office.
    The next, most likely, alternative is to find a target of opportunity in free agency or trade, probably the latter. This is because the FA market lacks quality options whereas there are some interesting names that might be available in deals with other teams.
    Author's Choice: Personally, if the price is right, acquiring a name like Brad Hand (someone Eppler has inquired on previously) or Mychal Givens would be great. Since Eppler and his team love high spin rates so much, names like Drew Steckenrider, David McKay, Joe Jimenez, Buck Farmer, Jose Urena, Jeff Brigham, or Robert Gsellman might hold some level of interest.
    Ultimately this is not an area that I am to concerned about, as the Angels front office has done an outstanding job acquiring relievers that have the skills and tools to turn into effective relievers.
    All that the Angels need to do is start the season with an established group that can soak up innings and be effective to help the team reach the Trade Deadline in the right posture (wins) so that Eppler can reevaluate at that time whether the Halos need to acquire a rental bullpen option or two to help carry us over the Division finish line.
    Conclusion: Eppler probably understands that this unit, as a whole, might need some level of improvement, so it seems plausible that if he gets an opportunity to pick up a good reliever in trade (maybe names like Josh Hader, Jose LeClerc, Ken Giles, Mychal Givens, Scott Oberg, Keone Kela, Joe Jimenez, Jeurys Familia, Mark Melancon, Carlos Martinez, Richard Bleier, Ian Kennedy, Tim Hill, Paul Fry, Jared Hughes, Brad Hand, or Seth Lugo, among many others, might have some level of availability) or in free agency (maybe a guy like Arodys Vizcaino, Addison Reed, or, perhaps, Tyler Thornburg) he would do so, to help lift the squad a little further for the 2020 season and possibly beyond.
    Billy was recently quoted as saying, "There are a lot of ways to create a winning team." One of those ways is to build a really deep bullpen, not dissimilar to what the Yankees have done over the last couple of years, to help consistently build a bridge to success when transitioning from a starter to the later innings of a game.
    The good news is that the Angels have a good base of relievers to build upon, so the idea of a high quality relief corps is not a fantasy for the 2020 Angels. If Eppler was able to add a Hader, Giles, Givens, Hand, Martinez, or Jimenez type of player that would go a long way toward a consistent, sustainable run at the American League West Division championship. To be clear it does not have to be one of those names, either, there are plenty of other options out there to be had.
    Finally, the Angels could end up pulling one of their starters in and converting them to a relief role. Near the end of the season, the Halos used Jose Suarez in a long relief role four times, although they will likely start him in the Minors in the rotation. Jaime Barria and Dillon Peters made six and five long relief appearances, respectively, mostly early in the season. Jared Walsh is a two-way player, capable of relief work too, but he is most likely to do mop-up, low leverage work where the team is either ahead or behind by a significant amount of runs. Even Sandoval made a long relief appearance in early August. To be clear these guys are clear-cut starters (except Walsh) and will probably be used as such but they are available if the Halos switch course or have a need.
    Currently, it appears the Angels bullpen, barring an injury, trade or designation for assignment, will start the season with at least the following relievers in-tow:
    Hansel Robles Ty Buttrey Noe Ramirez Cam Bedrosian These four are the probable core base of the Angels 2020 bullpen.
    Behind them, the next group represents potential higher-probability adds and out-of-options players, in no particular order, that could be included on the 26-man active roster:
    Keynan Middleton Jake Jewell Taylor Cole Adalberto Mejia Mike Mayers Luke Bard Justin Anderson To be clear these seven will need to have good Spring Training outings to be included on the Opening Day roster, it will not be handed to any of them.
    Finally, the following names are very likely to start the year in the Minors no matter how well they perform in Spring Training (and in Pena's case he is on the IL for a while):
    Hector Yan Parker Markel Felix Pena So to wrap up this very long discussion, the author believes, based on the current 40-man roster, that the Opening Day starting eight (it is typical to start the season with eight relievers) will probably include these names:
    Hansel Robles Ty Buttrey Noe Ramirez Cam Bedrosian Keynan Middleton Adalberto Mejia Jake Jewell Mike Mayers If you do not feel we will carry eight out of the gate, then knock Mayers off the end of that list, probably. Also there is a real chance that if Eppler finds a reliever on the free agent or trade markets, that Mayers or Mejia (probably in that order) will be displaced off the 40-man and designated for assignment to make room for the new addition(s).
    This is what a good minimum resource bullpen looks like and this thriftiness allows the Halos to apply their monetary and trade resources elsewhere, for the betterment of the team as a whole. Longer term, once the Angels have an established rotation and position player group (which they are getting closer to this off-season), Eppler may be able to afford adding higher quality bullpen arms but, for now, he and the front office staff are doing this the right way.
    The Primer Series continues, next, with the Left Field article.
  22. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    So as the author began to contemplate the intricacies of the 2019-2020 off-season, third base, on the surface, was a concern but not a priority as there appear to be multiple full-time and platoon scenarios on tap.
    However, upon further examination of the available options now, and in the near future, there is reason to think that Eppler should be placing greater emphasis on a more permanent, strategic solution at the hot corner this off-season, if at all possible.
    Part of the reason is the dearth of good free agent and trade choices in the immediate future. In fact if you look at free agency options, out beyond this off-season, there are no legitimate players that are both good defenders and have an impact bat, readily available, in the next four years. The trade market is very similar with many of the high quality players at the hot corner locked up for quite a while.
    This begs the following question: Should the Angels make an aggressive move, now, to upgrade at third base?
    Securing one of the Top 2 free agent third basemen (Rendon or Donaldson) would require an assertive payroll move that is not Moreno's normal modus operandi although interesting times (the era of Trout) call for interesting measures (paying the Luxury Tax).
    This off-season's free agent and trade markets offer a lot of opportunities for the Angels to improve across their primary areas of need (SP, 3B, 1B, and C), so it would behoove Arte to consider a temporary (no more than two years) large payroll increase to strike at starting pitching (Cole/Strasburg) and third base (Rendon/Donaldson) targets, in particular, if he has the bravado to spend in the stratosphere (and more importantly does not want to sacrifice prospect capital in trade).
    To give the reader a sense of who the high quality defenders at the hot corner are, take a look at the table below which is sorted using FanGraphs 'Def' statistic, on a per game basis (Def/G), over the last three seasons with a minimum of 50 games played (beware of sample size):
    2017-2019 Top 30 Third Basemen Based on FanGraphs 'Def' on a per Game (Def/G) Basis Minimum 50 Games Played

    As you can see this list includes one former (Valbuena, may he Rest In Peace) and two current (Fletcher and La Stella) Angels players. Fletcher is ranked 2nd on this list over 3rd ranked Chapman.
    So clearly David, if he is slated for the keystone as outlined in the Second Base section of the Primer Series, will be difficult to clone and have him man the hot corner too. It is certainly possible the Angels could play Luis Rengifo at second base and Fletcher at third base (or even as a super utility player) but it seems to be an inefficient defensive alignment based on the current 40-man roster.
    Looking at the defensive list above, Brian Anderson might be available and Jedd Gyorko had his option declined so he could be a platoon option versus LHP but probably not a real, full-time solution. Travis Shaw was non-tendered but he could potentially provide value as a platoon partner, as well, against RHP.
    Eduardo Escobar may be accessible if the Diamondbacks decide that 2020 is a rebuilding year and would likely provide strong value. The Giants are probably dying to unload Longoria and as much as the author would love to see another Dirtbag on the team, this is one we should probably pass on.
    Of course, Anthony Rendon is available but the Angels need pitching more than a third baseman so Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg seem much likelier targets from a 10,000-foot strategic level. Donaldson, too, will cost a lot ($20M-25M per season), probably on a 3-year deal. Either of those two (Rendon or Donaldson) are pie-in-the-sky acquisitions based on a projected Angels 2020 Club Payroll amount of no more than $200M.
    Unless Moreno goes really big in the spending department (exceeding the Luxury Tax) or one of our current in-house options has the full confidence of Eppler before Spring Training even arrives, this spot seems destined to turn into a platoon of one left-handed hitter such as La Stella, Thaiss, or Rengifo (the latter a maybe, since he has not played third base since A-ball in 2017) and one right-handed hitter like Cozart or Ward.
    Out of that group Tommy La Stella and Zack Cozart are the only players with a wealth of playing time and experience in the Majors. If Eppler cannot find a way to trade off Zack's sunk-cost contract, the Angels may be forced to run out a platoon of La Stella and Cozart to start the 2020 season.
    In principle, assuming both are healthy, it is not a terrible idea. Zack could play against LHP, is a good defender, has played a lot at 3B (and very little at 2B), and might even enter in the later innings of a game as a defensive replacement. Tommy, who is an above average defender at the hot corner, carries a wRC+ of 119 over the last three seasons against RHP. Together they make a sort of marginally, above average hot corner Voltron. On the other hand, it may be more tenable to trade La Stella, place Cozart in a utility role, and run one of the other young players like Thaiss or Rengifo out at third rather than platoon Tommy and Zack.
    Ultimately, the most cost effective measure is a platoon, utilizing some combination of players currently on our 40-man roster. Individually they may lack a complete set of offensive and defensive skills, but as a two-man platoon they can provide a measure of value and it costs the Angels nothing further in terms of payroll or resources.
    Beyond those options, the Angels could look at offensive-based shortstops, such as Trevor Story for example, and acquire one to play third next to Simmons which would likely improve productivity at the hot corner. On the free agent market the Angels could get creative and sign Didi Gregorious to play at third and provide depth behind Simmons at shortstop which would likely have great defensive value for the team as a whole.
    Alternatively, pursuing a high Minors top prospect like Ke'Bryan Hayes (Pirates) or Jonathan India (Reds) would carry production risks for the near future that are likely unpalatable from the front office's point of view. If the Angels want to seriously compete in 2020, they have to reduce variability in total team performance, which may preclude taking to many risks on relatively unproven assets (prospects and somewhat untested MLB players).
    The Halos could, instead, trade for someone short-term like LeMahieu, Escobar, Taylor (Chris), or Turner who could be a stop-gap measure that tactically, but not strategically, solves the problem for a year or two. It is an option but perhaps not a value-added proposition when considering the breadth of choices in front of him. However, a short-term asset could give Angels internal solutions more development time.
    Finally, Eppler could get creative and pursue interesting players that could, at least for the short term, play at the hot corner. A bat-control type with power, like J.D. Davis, might fit in a full or part-time role at 3B and/or LF. Another Mets player, Jeff McNeil, had a breakout season in 2019 and would be a nice on-base presence manning the hot corner coupled with above average defense. Heck, New York even has Jed Lowrie who might hold interest for the Angels or maybe it is finding a way to snag someone like Yandy Diaz from the Rays. There are options out there but it really comes down to the asking price and if it adds value to the 2020 team and beyond. Only the Angels front office knows the truth and asking price of each candidate.
    Realistically, right now, Eppler is facing a long-term strategic decision at third base (not unlike shortstop). The hot corner is a conundrum and the fact that we have a lot of infield depth to choose from leads the author to believe that one viable path, beyond an internal candidate or platoon, is for the Halos to trade one or more of their young players and/or prospects, as Eppler alluded to recently, and simply make room to acquire a competent third baseman in free agency or trade.
    So many ways to go and all of it will be dependent on knowledge of Moreno's payroll leash, Eppler's available resources, and the asking price of each target, that we, as fans, have little access to, on the outside looking in.
    Likely Outcome: Barring a payroll increase, a savvy trade, or an improbable dealing of Cozart, the Angels will likely run a platoon of Tommy La Stella and Zack Cozart or perhaps, less likely, Matt Thaiss or Taylor Ward in a full-time role.
    This scenario represents a neutral expenditure with no additional resources being used at the hot corner so that they can be applied to the rotation and makes sense in a modest Moreno payroll increase authorization scenario (2020 Club Payroll at approximately $190M).
    Author's Choice: Personally, as painful as it would be, I would love to see the Angels package up Zack Cozart in a deal with one or more other players and/or prospects to a team that is not contending (think Orioles, Marlins, Tigers, perhaps the Mariners, or least likely the Pirates) but can absorb most, if not all, of Cozart's 2020 salary, thereby freeing up additional payroll for other needs (and possibly bringing in one or more assets in trade).
    This way Billy could try to make a sneaky play to pick up Didi Gregorious to play third base on a strong one-year or multi-year (3-years, $51M?) deal. Alternatively, an inexpensive, veteran platoon partner for La Stella or Thaiss, like Jedd Gyorko (3-year average wRC+ of 129 vs. LHP) would work or, also, someone like Travis Shaw could be matched with Cozart or Ward in a similar tandem. Really, I would love to see Thaiss or Ward step up and not only hit but play above average defense but they may not be ready to take over the role full-time.
    As a much more speculative move, the free payroll could even be applied toward a target like Trevor Story if the following trade could be executed:
    Angels send OF Jordyn Adams, SS Jeremiah Jackson, SP Jose Soriano, and SP Aaron Hernandez to the Rockies in exchange for SS Trevor Story
    Why?
    The Rockies are reportedly discussing an extension with Trevor Story (not surprising at all) but if they are unable to lock him down, this off-season may go from an attempt at competitiveness to a rebuild, as Colorado may decide that getting trade value out of his remaining two years of control (not to mention Jon Gray) takes priority. It is quite possible that the Rockies would demand Brandon Marsh instead of Adams so this deal is a long shot but the offer above does contain three of Angelswin.com's Top 10 prospects and another from our Top 15 so it does have a lot of value.
    For the Angels we would obtain two years of control over Story to man the hot corner and provide SS depth behind Simmons. Trevor's splits outside of Coors Field are not as impressive as those within but he still clobbers left-handed pitching and holds his own versus righties. He would add another complimentary bat to Trout and Ohtani in the heart of our lineup and his salary would fall off the books at the end of 2021, helping the Angels to reset under the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold if they do exceed it in the 2020-2021 window (very likely if they acquired Trevor in the first place).
    Conclusion: If Billy does not have carte blanche in regard to payroll, a platoon, as mentioned above, would make the most sense. The real hope, however, is that one of either Matt Thaiss or Taylor Ward has a good showing in Spring Training and wins the job outright (Ward in particular has had some very solid hitting splits over the last three years in AA and AAA).
    On the flip side if the wallet opens up really wide ($200M-$220M in 2020 Club Payroll), Rendon or Donaldson could easily come into play creating the potential for a really wild off-season and possibly turning the Angels into a truly complete and competitive ball club in 2020 and beyond. Adding Anthony in addition to Gerrit would instantly vault the Angels into Division contention and would create a really deep bench and depth chart. To be clear everything relies on how far Arte opens up the pocketbook so this is a real long shot (the 1% solution) outcome and should not be relied upon as a likely result.
  23. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    So if they call third base the "hot corner", should they call first base the "cold corner"? These are some of the random thoughts that pass through my head as the Primer Series progresses.
    However, the author suspects that Eppler would actually like to make sure that first base heats up in 2020 rather than reenact the cold spell that turned out to be a 27th placed ranking, in total WAR for the year, among all 30 Major League Baseball teams.
    Pujols, across 423 plate appearances (PA's) at 1B, provided some offensive productivity (wRC+ of 109) but made up for that by playing bad defense (-10.8 per FanGraphs 'Def' metric). Not Albert's fault though! He was forced there by necessity because Justin Bour was not supposed to put up a .179 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and a pitiful offensive showing (wRC+ of 70). Young prospect Jared Walsh picked up 80 of those PA's to the tune of a wRC+ of 51 as well.
    The latter has a lot of promise if he can convert his upper Minor League offensive numbers into similar Major League results. Jared could become a left-handed version of Mark Trumbo with better on-base ability, potentially (versus RHP in particular). However, as much as Eppler wants to place some faith in the younger players to provide needed production this year, Walsh might be better suited to start off 2020 at AAA Salt Lake City and act as a depth piece behind a free agent or trade target for one, or perhaps two, more season(s) (Walsh has two options remaining).
    When you consider Jared's inexperience, the departure of Bour to Japan, and the fact that Albert should spend all of his PA's in the Designated Hitter spot, this situation screams for a short-term solution either internally, in trade, or via free agency.
    So to start let us examine the best defensive first basemen in the Majors because, as you should know by now, Eppler values quality defense at every position:
    2017-2019 Top 35 First Basemen Sorted by FanGraphs 'Def' on a Per Game Rate Basis (Def/G) Minimum 50 G's Played

    Looking at the choices, you begin to realize why first base is usually a source of offense rather than defense.
    Based on the fact that the Angels might have a contributor to play first base long-term such as Walsh, Thaiss, or Ward, a likelier solution for the Angels this off-season would be to acquire, via free agency or trade, a first baseman with short-term control, say 1-2 years, if they really believe that one of the names above is their long-term answer at the "cold corner".
    If this is the case, clearly some of the names above like, Muncy, Vogelbach, Olson, and Hoskins, are unavailable or not as desirable as they are valuable, long-term contributors to their current, respective teams.
    Players that might be attainable include Belt, McMahon, Adams, Rizzo, Moreland, Bird, Santana, Carpenter, and Mancini, among others. Some, like Belt, Rizzo, Santana, and Carpenter, might be out of Eppler's budget as they are all signed to contracts that would pay them double-digit millions in 2020 Club Payroll, but, as evidenced via the Rendon signing, money is probably not a large barrier. The rest, like McMahon, Adams, Moreland, Bird, and Mancini, would be more affordable from a payroll perspective but may cost more in prospect capital, albeit, probably, for reasonable mid and low-level type farm assets in return (except Bird who is a free agent after the Yankees designated him recently).
    So if the defensive bar is so low at first base, it may make sense, as part of this Primer Series, to flip the script and look at the top offensive first basemen:
    2017-2019 Top 35 First Basemen Sorted by FanGraphs 'Off' on a Per Game Rate Basis (Off/G) Minimum 50 G's Played

    No matter how you parse it, most of the top offensive and defensive first basemen in baseball right now are likely unavailable in free agency and trade. Names like Bellinger, Muncy, Alonso, Freeman, and Goldschmidt are all locked in with their current teams.
    Out of that list, above, the most available names include Eric Thames, Jose Martinez, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Matt Adams, and maybe Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, and Brandon Belt.
    Finding a complete first baseman in this current market is tough. Most of the candidates are good on only one of offense or defense. Additionally, some of those candidates have uneven splits, one way or the other, like Brandon Belt for example. However, most of the names above were at least League-average or better against both sides of the mound in 2019, making them viable additions to round out a lineup.
    That being said, the Angels could use improvement against both left and right-handed pitchers and the choice of which first baseman is utilized at the position will probably be driven not only by splits, but also, possibly, by positional versatility around the field.
    When you examine the likely positional set-up, players like Trout, Fletcher, Rendon, and Simmons have pretty even splits and above average defense or better, making them full-time candidates in CF, 2B, 3B, and SS. Beyond that the Angels may need to actually find a platoon partner for Upton who can hit lefties (Justin has struggled mightily with them in recent seasons). Goodwin will start the season, probably, in right field but shortly after the season begins, the Angels are very likely to call up young Jo Adell. Adell has run pretty even splits in the Minors but Goodwin can make a good platoon partner or day-off fill-in for our entire outfield. Catcher is less relevant as any offense you get out of the position is gravy. That leaves whatever solution Eppler comes up with at first base.
    Reasonably, the previous paragraph lists a lot of full-time Angels players and all of them are right-handed hitters which would normally beg the question of the need for a left-handed bat but those players have fairly even splits which mitigates the need to a large degree. This is, in part, why Tommy La Stella is more likely to stay on the roster for 2020 due to his more productive hitting versus RHP. Additionally, this is what makes Brian Goodwin such a perfect fit for next season, too, because, despite him being a left-handed hitter, he actually hits LHP better (114 wRC+ over the last three years) and he makes a fine temporary right fielder until Adell shows up and he can shift over to pick up some of Upton's at-bats against lefties as-needed.
    In the end, it seems reasonable that Eppler will simply try to acquire the best hitter he can find with good splits because the team's offense is, on paper, well balanced production-wise. Defense would be nice but is a secondary concern. So the Angels are probably searching for a player who can fill a lead-off role (more on-base ability) or as an additional power bat to place in the middle or back of the lineup.
    Likely Outcome: The Angels could run with one of Jared Walsh, Tommy La Stella, Matt Thaiss, Taylor Ward, or even Albert Pujols but it seems very reasonable that the Halos could add one more experienced bat on either a short-term free agent contract or via trade to increase team depth even further (something the Angels have seriously lacked in previous seasons).
    Based on the fact that Eppler and Moreno are going all-in on 2020 it would not be at all shocking to see the Angels take an interest in a free agent like Nick Castellanos on a long-term deal or possibly Justin Smoak or Edwin Encarnacion on a short-term deal that would not extend past the 2021 season (One to two years maximum). On the trade side names like Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Josh Bell, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, or Yandy Diaz might hold more appeal than some of the other options in the market.
    Probability leans toward one of Smoak (free agent), Carpenter (two years of club control), Encarnacion (free agent), Mancini (three years of arbitration control), or, more remotely, Rizzo (two years of club control). Those are the value plays that Eppler is likely targeting if they decide to not run out one of the young guys in 2020. If the Angels do not pick up another first baseman, Tommy La Stella, Matt Thaiss, or Taylor Ward are the more likely set of choices to start at 1B in 2020.
    Author's Choice: For me on the trade front, if the Angels manged to grab one of Carpenter (high dollars, low prospect cost) or Mancini (lower dollars, moderate prospect cost) that would be fantastic. On the free agent side Encarnacion or Smoak would be perfectly fine and affordable, costing only cash. Internally I think all three of Walsh, Thaiss, and Ward have the potential to break out (or get traded) but grabbing a guy like Smoak for 1-2 seasons would not only bring in an experienced MLB bat it would improve depth behind Justin, in case of injury or extended absence.
    Conclusion: Eppler would probably like to have more assured production at first base so finding a short-term solution while Jared Walsh, Matt Thaiss, and Taylor Ward gain more experience with high Minors pitching makes sense not only for the 2020 teams chances to win the Division but also as a depth move. Certainly he could have one or more of the young guys fight it out in Spring Training but why leave 2020 more to chance?
       
  24. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer
    Excellence.
    This is the word that best describes Andrelton Simmons approach to baseball.
    It is best exhibited in his defensive glove-work which Simba is renowned for across MLB and, very likely, long after his career has come to an end.
    Although Simmons struggled a bit at the plate this year, he once again led all of baseball in defense based on FanGraphs 'Def' stat on a games played (Def/G) rate basis, in 2019, as seen below:
    2019 Shortstops Sorted by FanGraphs 'Def' Statistic on a Per Game Rate Basis Minimum 50 G's Played

    Really it is not even close. Adalberto Mondesi, another clearly superior defender to other shortstops in baseball, is a tier below Simba. It is Tier 1, Andrelton, Tier 2, Adalberto, and then Tier 3, DeJong and Baez, and then the rest. Simmons, in an off-year, was 8% better than Adalberto and nearly 20% better than Baez, below Mondesi, on a Def/G rate basis.
    In fact if you look at recent history, it becomes even more apparent that Simmons is a true defensive beast in a class of his own. Below, is the same chart for the last three years with a minimum of 50 Games (G's) played:
    2017-2019 Top 35 Shortstops Sorted by FanGraphs 'Def' Statistic on a Per Game Rate Basis Minimum 50 G's Played

    Here the difference is even more stark. There is God-level defense and the rest of the wannabes trying not to embarrass themselves. Simmons is a full 47% better than his nearest neighbor, Mondesi.
    Based on this alone, you have to suspect that Eppler, who is a big believer in superior defense particularly at the up-the-middle (CF, SS, 2B, and C) positions, has to be considering a possible extension for Simmons in the upcoming off-season. Andrelton is simply on a different planet defensively and even if he begins a decline in his age 30 season he is just heading back down to be with the rest of the mortals on earth.
    When you combine Simba's superlative defense, his roughly League-average weighted runs created plus (wRC+), his excellent in-game instincts, and leadership, on and off the field, they are great traits to consider when determining the value of keeping Andrelton in the fold.
    Really this decision boils down to a value play and what Eppler wants for the future of the franchise. Does he sign Simba to a 4-6 year deal, likely around $13M-$17M per season, for a rough average of 5 years, $75M (much lower than my original estimate last season) or does he look to trade Andrelton and find a replacement to bridge the gap to a prospect like Jerimiah Jackson, Kyren Paris, or even a different, long-term signing or acquisition of a high-caliber shortstop of the future?
    If you believe that Eppler really values defense then you have to look at the chart above and think that it is a choice, among the Major League candidates, between Simmons, Mondesi, Iglesias, DeJong, and Lindor.
    Adalberto has four years of control and could be a reboot of Andrelton minus the really low strikeout rate but with enhanced base stealing, making him a lesser choice overall out of the group. Iglesias is available but he too would pull the offense down even further, making him a bit of a non-starter as well. DeJong is signed to a long-term deal making him the Cardinals shortstop for years to come and an improbable trade  candidate barring a wild redirection by the St. Louis front office.
    That leaves Francisco Lindor who has two years of relatively expensive arbitration control left. Salary estimations probably place him at $17M and $26M in 2020 and 2021, respectively, making him an expensive but quality acquisition if the Indians are indeed interested in moving him as reported by Jeff Passan. Lindor would bring youth, lesser defense but greater offense to the position and might be an extension candidate before or after the 2020 season. He would likely be a good lead-off hitter for a team that hasn't had one for quite a while.
    This will ultimately be a tough call for Eppler and staff. It will really come down to what projected value they can get at the position once they have addressed the rotation questions that are of more immediate and urgent concern.
    Likely Outcome: Angels extend Andrelton Simmons at approximately 5 years, $70M-$80M or perhaps 4 years, $64M. This extension can save money in 2020, by resetting Simba's year-to-year salary and freeing up a bit of payroll for rotation needs. Andrelton can man shortstop through the length of that contract or he can slide over to 2B or utility at the tail-end of it to make room for another as needed.
    The next alternative is to put someone like David Fletcher or Luis Rengifo at shortstop and even though both are fine defenders, they are not Simba at the most critical defensive position in baseball. This is a more cost-effective solution if Eppler finds himself needing to shed additional payroll, based on a known salary cap handed down from Moreno, to accommodate expenditures in other areas (starting pitching basically).
    Author's Choice: Personally I have always liked Simmons and I hope they extend him on a 4-5 year deal. Certainly, it would be tremendous if Eppler could pull off a trade for Francisco Lindor but with our miss on Cole and Strasburg in free agency, the Angels now have to trade for one (or even two) more starters, which will likely deplete their available players and prospects in trade.
    Conclusion: Eppler will have to manage payroll carefully and the probable best way to do that is to extend Simmons and restructure his contract so that his 2020 salary goes from $15M down to something like $11M give or take.
    David Fletcher is the cost-effective solution, but that means the Angels need to find a solution at the keystone where Fletcher would probably fit best. Rengifo could be that solution at second base now that the Angels have signed Anthony Rendon. This, however, puts a lot of the weight on the younger, less experienced members of the roster, creating a lot of potential performance risk that Eppler probably does not want to take in a critical season for his own employment.
    Lindor will likely make $17M or so, which is problematic money-wise but also adds more to the Angels lineup. His ability to lead-off and steal in front of Trout (actually now Rendon, then Mike, probably) would be very valuable and would bolster an already strong lineup. To be clear there will be a LOT of interest in Lindor from a majority of teams around the league, if the Indians put him on the block, so the Angels will have to pay a hefty price and it may be completely out of our reach (say if the Indians ask for Jo Adell instead of MLB-ready players).
    Of course, Billy could do nothing and simply pay Simba his final contractual year's salary and punt this decision down the road but that seems ill-planned and ill-advised and the Angels GM is anything but that, particularly at such a critical position.
  25. ettin
    By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    Once again the Primer Series discussion turns to Eppler's core belief in up-the-middle-defense, of which the keystone is a major component part.
    When you think about Eppler's statement prior to the 2019 season, regarding young players with upside stepping up, you have to believe that second base is a position that could potentially be filled internally for the 2020 season, not only for real production purposes but also to relieve potential payroll expenditures at the keystone.
    To emphasize this point, below is a list of 2B candidates sorted over the last three seasons using FanGraphs 'Def' statistic, sorted on a rate basis per game (Def/G) with a minimum of 50 Games played at the keystone:
    2017-2019 Top 35 Second Basemen Sorted by FanGraphs 'Def' on a Per Game Rate Basis Minimum 50 G's Played

    Perhaps, rather unshockingly, the Angels have two players, Fletcher and Rengifo, ranked in the Top 20 defensive players at the keystone (and three former Angels; Kinsler, Beckham, and Espinosa, ranked in the Top 15).
    Leading the entire list is the sure-footed David Fletcher who, on a 155-games played basis, would average nearly 2.8 Wins Above Replacement if he played full-time. Well behind him, but a defensive force in his own right, is newcomer Luis Rengifo ranked 18th at the position.
    If you firmly believe, as Eppler appears to do, that defense is critical at the keystone then there is no one even close to Fletcher, defensively at the position, over the last three seasons if you believe the sample size is sufficient (it may not be so take it with a grain of salt but it passes the eye test). He dwarfs even the gifted Ian Kinsler by quite a margin, making him an easy choice to man 2B in 2020, particularly since he has a near-League average wRC+ of 96 over that same time period which is slightly higher than League average. His elite glove and instincts combined with his excellent contact ability make him a prime choice for Eppler to place his faith in next season.
    Rengifo, who is defensively talented as well, has put up good numbers against RHP (wRC+ of 98) but was far worse against lefties (wRC+ of 62) in 2019, unlike David who is more consistent offensively against both sides of the mound. Luis is young and can certainly improve but it is clear who the preferred choice is here, right now.
    One name not on the list, but very well could be if he played the position, is Zack Cozart. He represents a real unknown heading into this off-season as the Angels are on the hook for his 2020 $12.7M salary. Cozart is discussed further in the Third Base article of this series but he too is an option at the keystone if the Angels don't play him at 3B. He is also a trade candidate if Eppler can wrangle together a bad contract swap or a partial or full salary dump for prospects deal.
    Another potential choice that has not garnered any Major League playing time yet is young promising prospect Jahmai Jones who was recently added to the 40-man roster. If Jones is not traded he will probably act as quality depth at 2B and all of the outfield positions, in all probability, but is an unlikely choice to start the 2020 season in the Majors.
    The Angels could certainly sign a free agent or trade for a keystone player, as the market is saturated with average-to-mediocre 2B candidates, but that seems inefficient and an unnecessary expenditure of payroll resources with such a talented defender like Fletcher in the fold. It would only make some level of sense if the Angels had an exciting opportunity to trade David for another position of need but that seems unlikely at this moment in time.
    If the Angels go the trade route, there are probably only a small handful of targets that make any reasonable sense such as Kolten Wong, Ozzie Albies, Jed Lowrie, or much more remotely, Javier Baez, all of whom may cost more than the Angels are willing to part with in terms of players and prospects. On the free agent side, aging offensive stalwarts such as Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, Jonathan Schoop, and Jedd Gyorko, who recently had his option bought out, could be had at probably very reasonable prices but have offensive and defensive warts to one degree or another.
    This time the choice for Eppler seems pretty clear.
    Likely Outcome: Angels start David Fletcher at 2B to start the 2020 season and probably for the foreseeable future.
    Author's Choice: This decision might be the easiest one for Eppler to make this off-season. Expecting 2.5-3 WAR (or possibly more) out of your keystone position is nice and Fletcher has a high probability of delivering that, hitting lead-off or toward the back-of-the-order on a regular basis.
    If the Angels did run into a scenario where another team offered up a strong starting pitcher or position player in exchange for Fletcher, the Angels could run Cozart or Rengifo out at 2B and move David in trade but that would have to improve the team more than Fletcher leaving would hurt them.
    Conclusion: Billy has to manage payroll, player, and prospect resources carefully and this is one position where he has a pretty clear-cut choice to fill at the League minimum, thus David Fletcher, barring a trade, is our likely starting second baseman for 2020 with Luis Rengifo, Jahmai Jones, or, more remotely, Zack Cozart, as the backup choices.
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