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Angelsjunky

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  1. Angelsjunky
    As has been mentioned already, Mike Trout’s greatness is largely the result of his well-rounded game: he’s a bonafide .300 hitter (career .305 BA, five of eight years above .300), a prodigious power hitter (six of eight seasons of 30+ HR, career .581 SLG), steals bases (averaging almost 25 per season), and is a good defender. But perhaps the key to the entire mix is his plate discipline. Trout is known for his ability to work the count, his pitch recognition, and a rather selflessly patient approach that leads to a ton of walks.
    #18a: Walks Through Age 27
    Mickey Mantle 892 Eddie Yost 874 Mel Ott 815 Mike Trout 803 Jimmie Foxx 781 As you can see, Trout 4th through age 27, behind Mantle--a very similar player (which we'll look at later)--and a few high walk players who all started very young. Foxx and Ott are well-known Hall of Famers, while Yost is not. As an aside, he was an interesting and rather rare player: he drew 100  walks--123 or more, actually--eight times in his career, leading the AL five times. His career triple-slash was .254/.394/.371, meaning he walked a ton but didn't hit for a high average, never hitting .300, and had little power, only surpassing 12 HR once (21 in 1959, near the end of his career). He also didn't steal bases, meaning he was a one-tool player--drawing walks--but one of the best all-time.
    #18b: 100-walk seasons through Age 27
    Back to Trout, let's look at those walks from a different angle. Only three players have had more 100-walk seasons through their age 27 season:
    5 Adam Dunn, Frank Thomas, Eddie Yost
    4 Harlond Clift, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Charlie Keller, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, Mike Trout, Ted Williams
    #19: On-base Percentage
    The walks and .300 BA translates to a .419 career OBP, which is 21st all-time, 26th through age 27. That might not be as high as you’d expect, although this is largely on account of overall lower BA in recent years. Trout is 2nd among active players, behind only Joey Votto (.421), and tied for third with Frank Thomas over the last 60 years, behind Votto and Barry Bonds (.444).
    Slugging Percentage
    Moving away from plate discipline, Trout is even better known for his power. We already discussed his home run totals in a previous installment, but what about slugging? How does Trout's ability to generate total bases per at-bat compare to other players?
    #20a: Career SLG
    Babe Ruth .690 Ted Williams .634 Lou  Gehrig .632 Jimmie Foxx .609 Barry Bonds .607 Hank Greenberg .605 Mark McGwire .588 Manny  Ramirez .585 Mike Trout .581 Joe DiMaggio .579 As you can see, Trout currently has the 9th highest career SLG. Remember that this is not equalized for era or context, and all of those players played during higher run-scoring contexts. Through age 27, he's at #15 all-time--not as high, but still impressive.
    Let's make it more specific, though, and narrow it to contemporary young players:
    #20b: SLG 1970-2019, Through Age 27
    Todd Helton .622 Albert Pujols .620 Ryan Howard .610 Frank Thomas .593 Vladimir Guerrero .588 Mike Trout .581 Alex Rodriguez .581 Manny Ramirez .576 Nomar Garciaparra .570 Ryan Braun .563 Notice the list of players? Every single one of them played in the inflated offense era (1993-2009) and/or was a known steroid user. This is not to indict any of those players, but to point out that Trout's only company of the last half-century in terms of SLG are players whose numbers are inflated by a very different context.
  2. Angelsjunky
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    Best Angels Seasons by WAR
    Let’s face it: the Angels aren’t exactly a top tier franchise. For a brief time from 2002-09, they were one of the best franchises in MLB, but as far as their entire history goes—from 1961 to 2019—they’re pretty mediocre, not only in terms of postseason participation, but superstar talent. Consider that before Trout, only three players had surpassed 8 WAR in a season (Erstad, Glaus, DeCinces), only four 7 WAR (add in Fregosi), and only five 6 WAR (add in Figgins).
    But Trout changed all of that. His five best seasons by fWAR are the five best Angels seasons. He’s got 7 of the top 8, and all 8 of his qualifying seasons are in the top 13 - #13 only so low because he played in 114 games.
    #24: Angels Top 13 seasons (Position Players)
    Trout 2013 10.2 Trout 2012 10.1 Trout 2018 9.8 Trout 2016 9.7 Trout 2015 9.3 Erstad 2000 8.7 Trout 2019 8.6 Trout 2014 8.3 Glaus 2000 8.2 DeCinces 1982 7.3 Fregosi 1964 7.3 Fregosi 1970 6.8 Trout 2017 6.8 Ryan in 1973 (8.7), and 1974 (6.8), Chance in 1964 (7.6), and Tanana in 1975 (7.2) would all be equal to or better than Trout’s worst season, if we were including pitchers.
    #25: Mickey Mantle
    Do you remember a decade ago when one scout was scoffed at for comparing Trout to Mickey Mantle? Well, that comparison has proven to be warranted. Not only do their career numbers line up very closely—especially adjusting for era—but Trout has already produced 65% of Mantle’s career value via WAR (73.4 to 112.3) in just 50% of the playing time.

    As you can see, Trout is on pace or ahead of pace to surpass Mantle’s numbers in most categories. He’s played in almost exactly half as many games, with slightly more PA per game. The only categories he’s behind on are walks (fewer) and strikeouts (more). He is a tiny bit behind on RBI and OBP, but both are rounded to 50% so basically even.
    A couple things seem likely to occur, going forward: One, Trout will end up with significantly more games played and PA; a conservative estimate would put him at at least 2500 games played, and that’s assuming zero games in 2020 and averaging 130 for the remaining ten years of his contract (2021-30), with no games played beyond that. He could very well end up with 2700 or more games played. Two, his rate statistics will likely go down, at least by the end of his career. The vast majority of players are better through age 27 than they are after, and while Trout’s numbers might go up for a few more years—assuming he maintains his current peak production—they’ll inevitably dip, with the possible exception of walks and home runs, as both tend to maintain or improve during the 30s. But chances are he’ll finish somewhere close to Mantle. 
    The point being: The early comps to Mantle were quite justified. We Angels fans hope that he can combine Mantle’s perhaps unsurpassed talent with at least some of Willie Mays’ longevity.
  3. Angelsjunky
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    My apologizes for the two-month gap in this series--extenuating real-life circumstances (and no, I wasn't sick, but thanks for the concern!). Let's continue...
    #21: On-Base + Slugging Percentage
    Remember back in the 90s when OPS was the new-fangled stat that only stat-nerds were using? We’ve come along way  from there, with more sophisticated versions, but it was a starting point for looking at total hitting. Like most conventional statistics, it has limited utility historically as it doesn’t account for context. Despite that, Trout is one of only 7 players in major league history with 3,000+ PA to have a career OPS of 1.000 or higher—he’s exactly at that threshold, 7th all-time.
    #21a: Career OPS (3,000+ PA)
    Babe Ruth 1.164 Ted Williams 1.116 Lou Gehrig 1.080 Barry Bonds 1.051 Jimmie Foxx 1.038 Hank Greenberg 1.010 Mike Trout 1.000 Rest of the top 10: Manny Ramirez .996, Mark McGwire .982, Mickey Mantle .977.
    #21b: Career OPS+
    Adjusted OPS does account for context, so gives us a more accurate picture of Trout’s historical offensive value. If you’re not familiar with it, it is basically OPS adjusted for context (era, park), and represents a percentage over average (100). Trout ranks even higher:
    Career OPS+
    Babe Ruth 206 Ted Williams 190 Barry Bonds 182 Lou Gehrig 179 Mike Trout 176 Rest of the top 10: Rogers Hornsby 175, Mickey Mantle 172, Dan Brouthers 171, Joe Jackson 170, Ty Cobb 168.
    #22: Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)
    Let’s take it a step further, with one of my favorites: wRC+. If you’re not familiar with it, it is basically a different take on OPS+, but a bit more sophisticated--I see it as the best overall statistic for pure hitting value. 
    There are two ways to assess Trout's greatness via wRC+: career and through age 27. Career-wise, he's 6th all-time. Think about that: Trout's offensive out-put so far has been better, pound for pound, than every player in major league history except five: Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig, and Bonds. 
    Considering that Trout hasn't yet declined, it is more fair to compare him to other greats through age 27Attached is a chart that depicts both. 
    #23: Win Probability Added
    WPA, or Win Probability Added, isn't a well-known statistic beyond the inner sanctum of sabermetrics, but it offers another useful angle on Trout's greatness. Fangraphs describes it as a statistic that measures how much a player's action increased their team's odds of winning. Meaning, it takes into account the specific context of the plate appearance. It is based on a statistics called Win Expectancy ad unfortunately there is only data going back to 1974, but that's a large enough time-span to be relevant. As it is--like WAR--a cumulative stat, I'm only including through age 27 (he ranks #30 for all players 1974-present).
    WPA Through Age 27 (1974-present)
    Mike Trout 44.17 Albert Pujols 39.78 Tim Raines 31.88 Alex Rodriguez 29.73 Frank Thomas 29.16 Meaning, Trout--through age 27--has added more to his team's chances of winning than any other player in the last 46 years.

  4. Angelsjunky
    We’re going to come back to advanced statistics in a bit, but for now, let’s take a break for the old-timers and focus on something a bit more vanilla: The Triple Crown statistics--batting average, dingers, ribbies--as well as runs scored and stolen bases.
    #14: Batting Average (Active Leaders)
    When you think of what Trout brings to the plate, batting average isn’t  the first thing that comes to mind: he’s never led the league, never hit .330, although has settled in as a solid .300 hitter. That said, his .305 lifetime average is good for 4th among active players, behind only Miguel Cabrera (.315), Jose Altuve (.315), and Joe Votto (.307).
    #15: Home Runs (Through Age 27)
    Trout is known for his power, however, and is one of the most prolific young home run hitters in baseball history.
    HR Total Through Age 27 (1871-2019, all players)
    Alex Rodriguez 345 Jimmie Foxx 302 Eddie Mathews 299 Ken Griffey Jr 294 Mike Trout 285 Albert Pujols 282 Mickey Mantle 280 Mel Ott 275 Giancarlo Stanton 267 Frank Robinson 262 Trout hasn’t hit 50 in a  season yet (although would have in 2019  if he hadn’t lost time injury), but he’s hit 40+ twice and 30+ six times.
    And here’s where we get to the second Amazing Trout Stat related to HR: Trout is one of only seven players to hit 30+ HR six or more times in major league history. Jimmie  Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols did it seven times. Trout, Frank Robinson and Miguel Cabrera have done it six times.
    As far as the Angels franchise goes, with 285 he’s just 14 behind Angels leader Tim Salmon, with 299. Trout did it in 1199 games, compared to Salmon’s 1672. Only Troy Glaus, with 47 in 2000, has hit more in a single season, with Trout having the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 11th, and 21st highest yearly totals as an Angel.
     #16: RBI & Runs (Through Age 27)
    Usually batting second in the lineup, Trout  doesn’t get a ton of RBI opportunities, but he is still not-too-far down the all-time leaderboards for age 27:
    #16a: 752 RBI, 23rd all-time through age 27.
    He has scored quite a few runs:
    #16b: 903 Runs Scored, 10th all-time through age 27.
    #17: Stolen Bases (SB%)
    Trout is known for his all-around game, including speed. But after stealinig 49  bases in 2012, he’s only  surpassed 30 in 2013 and 2016. That said, where he stands out in his basestealing percentage: Trout is 10th all-time at 84.713%.
  5. Angelsjunky
    We’re not quite done with WAR yet. In previous installments, the focus  has been on Mike Trout in terms of all-time WAR and single season WAR. What about peak era? Specifically, how does Trout match up against his peers over his career, and how does his full-time span of eight  years match up against all-time greats?
    #12: Dominance Over Peers (2012-19 WAR)
    Trout has been a full-time player since 2012, a span of eight years. The first Amazing Trout Stat in this installment is 2012-19 WAR. Here are the WAR leaders during Trout’s full-time career:
    Top Ten WAR Leaders: 2012-19
    Mike Trout 72.7 Buster Posey 47.1 Josh Donaldson 41.8 Paul Goldschmidt 38.6 Andrew McCutchen 37.7 Mookie Betts 37.2 Bryce Harper 35.1 Joey Votto 34.9 Jose Altuve 34.8 Robinson Cano 34.7 Now consider what that means: Not only has he contribute +25.6 WAR above everyone else, or +3.2 per year, but he has contributed more WAR value than any two players ranked #6 or lower. Meaning, add #6 (Betts) to anyone below him, and Trout has contributed more value than both players combined.
    Let’s look at this visually:

    I think that image speaks for itself. While Posey is solidly above the rest of the field, everyone else evenly tapers off. Trout is a giant among lesser men.
    But to add one more number to the mix, Trout’s 72.7 WAR is 154% better than #2 during that same time-span, Buster Posey. Meaning,  he’s more than one-and-half times the value of the second most productive player of his era.
    #13: Eight-Year Spans (1871-2019)
    How  does Trout’s eight-year span compare to other all-time greats? Well, I calculated every eight-year span in the history of baseball going back  to 1871, and came up with the following list (note that I only included the very best span of each player):
    Best Eight-Year Spans (1871-2019)
    Babe Ruth 89.7 (1920-27) Ted Williams 77.1 (1939-42, 46-49*) Rogers Hornsby 76.9 (1920-27) Honus Wagner 76.0 (1902-09) Barry Bonds 75.6 (1997-2004) Willie Mays 75.3 (1958-65) Lou Gehrig 74.1 (1927-34) Mike Trout 72.7 (2012-19) Mickey Mantle 72.1 (1954-61) Ty Cobb 72.0 (1910-17) *For Williams I didn’t include the absent or partial years lost to WWII. 
    As you can see, the  only comparable players in the post-WWII era are Mays, Mantle, and Bonds. Every one else played in the first half of the century, in a very different context (e.g. eight-team leagues, no black players, fewer relief pitchers). In other words, Trout truly is the modern era version of Mays or Mantle, and doing so while playing in a more difficult context.
    As a side note, if you’re wondering where Bonds would  rank with only pre-1998 spans, his best “untainted” eight-year span is 1990-97, when he accumulated 69.5 WAR—still good enough to be #10.
    One final note: While this is an exciting statistic to contemplate, it is highly unlikely that Trout will ever do better. His first two years are also his highest WAR totals at 10.1 and 10.2, in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Still, I think he looks just fine as the eighth-best eight-year span in major league history (or 32nd best if you count every span of every player), or the second best of the post-WWII era.
  6. Angelsjunky
    #7-11: 8, 9, and 10 WAR SEASONS
    For this installment we'll combine several variations on the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric with regards 8, 9, and 10 WAR seasons, each of which deserves its own entry as Amazing Trout Stats. But first, some context. If you want to skip to the five Amazing Trout Stats, they're summarized at the end.
    8+ WAR And What It Means Historically
    One of the things I like about WAR, and probably why it has become so ubiquitous in baseball discussion, is that it is a statistic that factors in everything a player does, and represents it with a single number that has representational meaning. As a general rule, a 2-3 WAR player is an average regular. Or more exactly, the median among all qualifying players in a given year is around 2.7 WAR. 3-4 are good players, 4-5 are borderline stars, 5-6 all-star caliber, and somewhere between 6 and 7 WAR transitions into superstars, with 7 WAR and above being bonafide MVP candidates.
    If a player has an 8 WAR or above, he’s a candidate for the best player in the majors. But 9 WAR is where we get to truly special seasons, and 10 WAR is historic. 
    From 1871 through 2019—a span of 149 years of recorded data—there have been 15,444 qualifying player seasons. Of those, only 54 have been 10 WAR or higher; 140 have been 9 WAR or higher and 277 8 WAR or higher. Meaning, historically speaking, there’s been about one 10 WAR season every three years, one 9 WAR season per year, and two 8+ WAR seasons a year.
    But what about recently? Over the last decade, 2010-19, there have been four 10 WAR seasons, nine 9+  WAR seasons, and twenty-two 8+ WAR seasons.
    Or to sum up: A 9 WAR season happens usually only about once per year, or a bit less. There are two, occasionally three, 8 WAR seasons in a given year.
    For the sake of context, here are the numbers for the last decade, including all 4,466 player seasons with at least 100 PA:
    WAR Distribution 2010-19 (100+ PA)
    10 WAR: 4 (one every 0.4 years)
    9 WAR: 9 (one every 0.9 years)
    8  WAR: 22 (2.2 every year)
    7 WAR: 53 (5.3 per year)
    6 WAR: 115 (11.5 per year)
    5 WAR: 238 (23.8 per year)
    4 WAR: 440 (44 per year)
    3 WAR: 764 (76.4 per year)
    2 WAR: 1320 (132 per year)
    1 WAR: 2160 (216 per year)
    0 WAR: 3400 (340 per year)
    Negative WAR: 1066 (106.7 per year)
    Why 100  PA? Because that cuts out just about every NL pitcher, and it also is a solid, if arbitrary, number to represent any  player who spent significant time in the major leagues. Of those 4466 player seasons, only 1429—about a third—are qualifying (502 PA), but 100 PA is as good a number as any to represent “major leaguer,” whether full or part time, injured or healthy.
    To put that in context, 8 WAR seasons represent just under half a percent (0.49%) of all player seasons with at least 100 PA—or one out of every 200 major leaguers (100+ PA). Among qualifiers, it is 1.54%. 9 WAR seasons are even more rarified: 0.2% of 100 PA seasons, or 0.63% of qualifiers. 10 WAR? 0.09% of 100 PA, 0.28% of qualifers.
    So we’re in rare company, indeed, when we get to 8 WAR.
    10 WAR has a certain magic to it, but the vast majority of those were distributed in the first half of major league history, as single season WAR has tightened up, probably due to higher quality of competition (meaning, there are fewer outliers). Remember that Babe Ruth only faced seven different pitching staffs in every  year of his career, staffs that relied on starters pitching most or all of the game, without fresh relievers and specialists coming in later in the  game. Or let's look at it visually:

     
    Ruth is the only player to surpass 13 WAR, which he did four times, including a ridiculous  15.0 in 1923 (that lone green box way up above everything else). He has two more 12 WAR seasons, with Barry Bonds (twice), Lou Gehrig and Rogers Hornsby filling out the ranks of the ten 12 WAR seasons.
    What about 11 WAR? There have been 25 in all, but from 1949 to the present--the last 71 years--there have been only seven such seasons: two by Mickey Mantle in the 1950s, one by Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, one by Joe Morgan in 1975, and three by Barry Bonds in the early 2000s. The point being, aside from Bonds’ asterisked later years, there hasn’t been an 11 WAR season since 1975—that’s 45 years ago. This, again, is likely due to the wider distribution of talent.
    As I said earlier, there’s been about one 9 WAR per season historically, although in the latter half the rate has gone down to about one every year. In other words, 9 WAR is quite special. If you reached 9 WAR, chances are you were the best player that year. If you reach 8 WAR, you're one of the two or three best. If you reach 7 WAR, you're great--an MVP candidate--but  probably not the best player in the game. 
    What About Trout?
    But this series is about Mike Trout, right? All of the above is context to, once again, highlight just how amazing  #27 is. Trout has played eight full years, although in one (2017) he missed significant playing time, appearing in only 114 games, but just enough to qualify (507 PA). In seven of those eight seasons, he surpassed 8 WAR. In five seasons, 9 WAR, and in two seasons, 10 WAR (Baseball Reference is slightly different, giving him six, four, and three, respectively).
    What that means brings us to this amazing statistic, the first of our Amazing Trout Statistics:
    #7a - Share of Great Seasons (1901-2019): Mike Trout accounts for two (or 3.7%) of the 54 10 WAR seasons, five of the 140 9 WAR seasons (3.6%), and eight of 277 8 WAR seasons (2.9%). In other words, Trout alone has contributed one out of every 29 or so truly great seasons in major league history, plus or minus a few, depending upon which benchmark you use.
    #7b - Share of Great Seasons (1970-2019): If we narrow to the last half century, when the outliers diminished greatly, Trout's accomplishments are even more impressive: Two of 13 10 WAR seasons (15.4%), five of 48 9 WAR seasons (10.4%), and eight of 110 8 WAR seasons (7.3%).
    There are many ways to slice the cake, all of which very favorable for Trout.
    How many players in major league history have a similar resume of great seasons? Well, this brings us to three more Amazing Trout Stats:
    #8 - Players with seven 8 WAR seasons: Ruth and Willie Mays 11 each, Bonds 10, Honus Wagner, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, and Ted Williams 8, Eddie Collins and Mike Trout 7 each.
    #9 - Players with five 9 WAR seasons: Ruth 10, Hornsby and Bonds 8 each, Mays 7, Wagner, Williams, and Alex Rodriguez 6 each, Collins, Ty Cobb, and Trout 5 each.
    #10 - Players with two 10 WAR seasons: Ruth 9, Hornsby 6, Bonds 5, Mays and Williams 4 each, Cobb and Mantle 3 each, Wagner, Gehrig and Trout 2 each.
    Look at that list—every  single one of them (in bold-face)--except for Trout--are in the top 14 of career WAR:
    Babe Ruth 168.4 Barry  Bonds 164.4 Willie Mays 149.9 Ty Cobb 149.3 Honus  Wagner 138.1 Hank Aaron 136.2 Tris Speaker 130.4 Ted Williams 130.4 Rogers Hornsby 130.3 Stan Musial 126.8 Eddie Collins 120.5 Lou Gehrig 116.3 Alex Rodriguez 113.7 Mickey Mantle 112.3      47. Mike Trout  73.4
    And now for the fifth in this installment:
    #11 - The Sacred Seven: Trout is one of only seven players in baseball history who reached all three benchmarks -- along with Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, and Barry Bonds
    Meaning, Trout is one of seven players--arguably the seven greatest in baseball history--to reach all three benchmarks.  Collins, Cobb, Gehrig, and Rodriguez miss the cut in at least one category.Perhaps even more impressive is who is notably absent from any of the three benchmarks, inner circle Hall of Famers such as Hank Aaron, Tris Speaker, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Mike Schmidt, Rickey Henderson, Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Jimmie Foxx, and everyone else.
    In other words, in terms of the number of MVP caliber or better seasons, Trout has—through only his age 27 season—established himself among the very best of the best. And at 28 this year, he’s far from finished. Among other feats of prowess, he has a good chance of becoming only the fourth player with double-digit 8 WAR seasons (along with Ruth, Bonds, and Mays).
    SUMMARY OF AMAZING TROUT STATS #7-11:
    #7a - Share of Great Seasons (MLB History): Among 12,991 qualifying seaons from 1901 to 2019, or 119 years, Mike Trout accounts for two of the 54 10 WAR seasons (3.7%), five of the 140 9 WAR seasons (3.6%), and eight of 277 8 WAR seasons (2.9%). In other words, Trout alone has contributed one out of every 29 or so truly great seasons in major league history, plus or minus a few, depending upon which benchmark you use.
    #7b - Share of Great Seasons (Modern Era): Among 6,988 qualifying seasons from 1970-2019, or 50 years, Trout has contributed two of 13 10 WAR seasons (15.4%), five of 48 9 WAR seasons (10.4%), and eight of 110 8 WAR seasons (7.3%).
    #8 - 8 WAR Seasons: He's one of only nine players with seven 8 WAR seasons.
    #9 -9 WAR Seasons: He's one of only ten players with five 9 WAR seasons.
    #10 - 10 WAR Seasons: He's one of only  ten players with 10 WAR seasons.
    #11 - Combination of 8-9-10 WAR Seasons: He's one of only seven players with least seven 8 WAR seasons, five 9 WAR seasons, and two 10 WAR seasons.
  7. Angelsjunky
    Welcome to this year’s version of the AngelsWin Top 30 Prospects. As with last year, it is a group effort: the following is a composite list of several AngelsWin.com members and writers, with eight participants this year. The method is simple: the list is an average of eight lists. The benefit of taking such an approach is that not only do we tend to even each other’s biases out a bit, but we also get a range of approaches: from relying mostly on stats, reading other scouting reports, and eye-witness scouting.
    Unlike last year, I’m going to include the age the player will be for the 2020 season, meaning how old they are on July 1, 2020.
    A note on Ranking Trends: it is simply the different rankings by the eight participants. Most such lists don’t include the “raw wiring,” but as with last year I thought it would be interesting for people see because the range of numbers say a lot about the prospect. Prospects with a relatively narrow range tend to be more predictable, while those with a wider range may also have a wider range of outcomes and greater volatility.
    Finally, a big thanks to Scotty Allen (aka "Second Base") for providing the insightful Best Known For quotes.
    On to the list…
    1. JO ADELL OF (age 21)

    Stats: .289/.359/.475, 10 HR in 76 games in A+/AA/AAA.
    Ranking Trends: Consensus #1.
    ETA: 2020.
    Comments: The second year in a row as the consensus #1 Angels prospect, Adell is now considered one of the top five prospects in all of baseball – despite missing the first couple months of the year with a rather freakish double whammy hamstring/ankle injury. MLB Pipeline currently has him at #5, while Baseball America has him at #2. Adell’s stat line above is somewhat diminished by a relatively poor showing in AAA at the end of the year (.264/.321/.355 in 27 games), but his performance in AA (.308/.390/.553, 8 HR and 173 wRC+ in 43 games) is more indicative of his talent level. Adell is a tremendous athlete with prodigious power and great make-up; if there’s one knock on his game its that he doesn’t make as much contact as you’d like, and has only average plate discipline; but both should improve as he matures. He’s the real deal, the best Angels prospect since Mike Trout, and will make his debut in Anaheim sometime in 2020.
    Best Known For: Blend of power, speed, and athleticism at such a young age.
    2. BRANDON MARSH OF (age 22)

    Stats: .286/.367/.407, 7 HR and 19 SB in 101 Rookie/AA games.
    Ranking Trends: Consensus #2.
    ETA: 2020.
    Comments: Somewhat overshadowed by his friend and team-mate Adell, Brandon Marsh is an excellent prospect in his own right. That stat line is marred by a 1-21 streak in Rookie ball rehabbing an injury; he hit .300/.383/.428 in AA. He has not yet hit for power, but he’ll hit his share of extra base hits and should at least develop average HR power in the majors, possibly more. Despite having less impressive raw tools, in some ways Marsh is a more well-rounded prospect than Adell, with better contact and plate discipline, and at this point is a superior defender. Like his soon-to-be AAA Salt Lake team-mate, he’ll probably make his major league debut sometime in 2020, if he gets the opportunity.
    Best Known For: Well-rounded game.  Beard, and tantalizing power-speed potential. 
    3. JORDYN ADAMS OF (age 20)

    Stats: .257/.351/.369, 8 HR and 16 SB 109 R/A/A+ games.
    Ranking Trends: Seven #3s, one #4.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: Considering that Adams was a two-sport player and more committed to football than baseball a year and a half ago, the fact that he held his own in single A as a 19-year old is room for optimism. There’s a lot to like in his performance: not only is he flashing Adell-esque tools (and he’s even faster), but his 56 walks in 109 games is very heartening. Perhaps most importantly, Adams seemed to improve as the year went on: after a slow start, he hit .287/.369/.414 from May 10 on, and .325/.406/.504 from July 13 on. Expect for a breakthrough year in A+ Rancho Cucamonga this year. While Adams is still raw, he’s learning quickly and is on the fast track.
    Best Known For: One of the top prep football players in the nation coming out of high school.  Also, “The Dunk”. Also, the highest upside prospect in the system. 
    4. CHRIS RODRIGUEZ RHP (21)

    Stats: 0.00 ERA, 3 GS, 9.1 IP, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts.
    Ranking Trends: Four #4s, three #5s, one #9.
    ETA: 2021.
    Comments: Chris Rodriguez’s high ranking might come as a surprise due to the fact that he’s only pitched 9.1 innings in the last two years, all within 2019. But the stuff is real: Aside from possibly Jack Kochanowicz, he has the highest ceiling in the minor leagues. The question is whether he can stay healthy, and that is a big question. If he does, his ascendency to the majors will be fast and furious.
    Best Known For: Mid-90’s fastball, and mid/front of the rotation upside. 
    5. PATRICK SANDOVAL LHP (23)

    Stats: 5.03 ERA, 39.1 IP, 19 walks, 42 strikeouts in the majors.
    Ranking Trends: 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7.
    ETA: 2019.
    Comments: When Sandoval came over to the Angels in July of 2018, from the Astros for Martin Maldonado, the general view was that he was a classic high-floor but low-ceiling starter, the type of guy you don’t mind having as your 5th starter but not much more. In his nine starts in the majors, he showed flashes of something more, a bonafide mid-rotation starter, if everything comes together.
    Best Known For: His fastball climbing 4-5 mph in the last two years since the Astros traded him. 
    6. JEREMIAH JACKSON SS (20)

    Stats: .266/.333/.605, 23 HR in 65 games in Orem (high Rookie ball).
    Ranking Trends: 5, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: I think the key phrase would be “cautiously excited.” 23 HR in 65 games for a 19-year old is impressive, but its all accompanied by 96 strikeouts and a mediocre .266 BA. He walked 24 times, which is a decent rate; given his swing and miss, developing plate discipline may be the key to Jackson becoming a star.
    Best Known For: Breaking the Pioneer League HR record as a 19 year old. 
    7. JOSE SORIANO RHP (21)

    Stats: 2.51 ERA, 82.1 IP, 51 walks, 92 strikeouts in Rookie and A ball (Burlington).
    Ranking Trends: 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 23.
    ETA: 2021.
    Comments: Soriano and Rodriguez are often mentioned in the same breath. While on one level it is a ceiling/floor comparison, Soriano’s ceiling isn’t that much lower, and his floor seems quite a bit higher. If his control develops, he could be in Anaheim rather quickly.
    Best Known For: Mid to upper 90’s fastball and wipeout slider. 
    8. JAHMAI JONES 2B (22)

    Stats: .234/.308/.324, 5 HR and 9 SB in 130 games in AAA Salt Lake.
    Ranking Trends: 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9
    ETA: 2021
    Comments: Jones not only had a very bad year statistically speaking, it was also his second year in a row of declining performance: his OPS slipped from .794 in 2017 (A/A+), .717 in 2018 (A+/AA) to .631 in 2019 (AA). That said, he did improve later in the year, both hitting well in the Arizona Fall League (.302/.377/.509 in 61 PA), but also towards the end of the regular year, hitting .306/.385/.414 from July 5th on, or 51 games. So while he didn’t make that jump into elite prospect status that we might have hoped for after 2017, he’s still a good prospect. Depending what the Angels do with Andrelton Simmons and Tommy La Stella after 2020, don’t be surprised if the 2021 infield includes Fletcher, Rengifo, and Jones.
    Best Known For: Power-speed potential as a middle infielder, and the younger brother of NFL Wide Receiver T.J. Jones. 
    9. KYREN PARIS SS (18)

    Stats: .300/.462/.400 in 13 PA in Rookie ball (AZL).
    Ranking Trends: 6, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 13, 14.
    ETA: 2024
    Comments: While it is rather early to be too excited about Paris, the upside is real: this is a talented young baseball player who just turned 18 a couple weeks ago from this writing, on November 11. He’s a toolsy shortstop, a good defender for his age, and really only lacks power – although that could develop. Before the draft last year, when he went 55th overall (2nd round), websites and analysts had him anywhere from #34 (Fangraphs), #48 (Keith Law), #70 (Baseball America), and #75 (MLB Pipeline). There’s a lot of volatility at this point; a couple years from now he could be another Livan Soto—a defense-first middle infielder who profiles as a major league bench player—or he could be an elite prospect, if the bat develops as hoped. Stay tuned.
    Best Known For: Delivering one of the better post-draft interviews with Victor and Gubi.  A very well spoken young man. 
    10. WILL WILSON 2B/SS (21)

    Stats: .275/.329/.439 in 46 games in Rookie ball.
    Ranking Trends: 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 10, 10, 29.
    ETA: 2022
    Comments: At this point it is difficult to say whether the tepid view on Wilson is warranted in that, on one hand, he seems like another unexciting college draft pick with limited upside in the tradition of Matt Thaiss and CJ Cron; on the other, not only is he rather young for a college player, but the scouting reports on his bat are promising. At the least, he deserves a chance to prove himself before calling him an over-draft. Wilson could be better than expected, so let’s see how he hits with a full season of experience: he could move fast.
    Best Known For: The Angels first round draft pick from this last draft.  Bat first middle infielder. 
    11. JACK KOCHANOWICZ RHP (19)
    Stats: Did not play professional baseball.
    Ranking Trends: 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 12, 15, 17.
    ETA: 2024.
    Comments: Upside, upside, upside. At 6’6” and 220 lbs, Kochanowicz can bring the heat. In my mind, he is the pitching equivalent of Kyren Paris: a couple years from now he could be #1 on this list, or another cautionary tale about getting too excited too soon. But the stuff is real, and he’s very young. He’ll be one of the most exciting prospects to watch in 2020.
    Best Known For: Hitting upper-90’s at Fall Instructs.  One scout said that he believed Kochanowicz would go top five in the draft three years from now had he decided to go to college instead. 
    12. AARON HERNANDEZ RHP (23)
    Stats: 4.46 ERA, 72.2 IP, 46 walks, 81 strikeouts in A+ ball (Inland Empire).
    Ranking Trends: 11, 11, 12, 13, 13, 15, 15, 20.
    ETA: 2021.
    Comments: Hernandez simply needs more minor league innings, and should be in Anaheim before you know it. He’s got the upside to be a mid-rotation starter, but may settle in a bit below that, or as a reliever. But he seems to have a rather high floor for a pitching prospect and, one way or another, should be part of the major league team within the next year or two.
    Best Known For: Other than sharing a name with an unfortunate soul mid-90’s fastball with movement and a strong finish to the 2019 season. 
    13. HECTOR YAN LHP (21)
    Stats: 3.72 ERA in 109 IP, 52 walks, and 148 strikeouts in A ball (Burlington).
    Ranking Trends: 11, 12, 13, 13, 14, 16, 16, 16.
    ETA: 2022.
    Comments: Take a look at those strikeouts and walks, and you see why Yan is ranked where he is. 12.2 Ks per 9 innings is no joke, but neither are 4.3 walks. We can hope that Yan can remain a starter, but his path to the majors may be as a relief pitcher. Either way, he’s one of a handful of pitching prospects in the organization with legitimate upside.
    Best Known For: Recently being added to the Angels 40 man roster from A Ball.  Sidearmer with mid-90’s fastball. 
    14. D’SHAWN KNOWLES OF (19)
    Stats: .241/.310/.387 in 64 games in Rookie ball (Orem).
    Ranking Trends: 12, 12, 13, 16, 16, 18, 21, 28.
    ETA: 2023
    Comments: Remember when D’Shawn was an after-thought to Trent Deveaux? He had a surprising 2018, but fell back to earth in 2019 – a rather disappointing follow-up. He doesn’t seem to have Deveaux’s elite athleticism, but may also have that “it factor” to become more than the sum of his parts. At 19 years old and with Adell, Marsh, and Hermosillo ahead of him, he’s got plenty of time.
    Best Known For: Being the “other” top international signing from the Bahamas two years ago. 
    15. MICHAEL HERMOSILLO OF (25)
    Stats: .243/.330/.466 in 64 games in A+/AAA; .139/.304/.222 in 18 major league games.
    Ranking Trends: 11, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 22, 28.
    ETA: 2019.
    Comments: Hermosillo seems like the type of player that could become a fan favorite, the Brock Holt of the Angels. Or at least that’s his upside. He’s got the tools to be a terrific 4th outfielder, and could even be a starter on some teams. But he’s got to make more contact first, and may be destined for another organization to get regular playing time.
    Best Known For: Prep exploits on the gridiron and overall athleticism. 
    16. KEVIN MAITAN IF (20)
    Stats: .214/.278/.323 in 123 games in A Burlington.
    Ranking Trends: 11, 12, 18, 18, 20, 20, 20, 26.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: If you didn’t know about the hype from a few years ago, Maitan would be an intriguing prospect – and he is. But it is hard not to get around the ridiculous comparisons that were thrown around, like Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones. Imagine being a 16-year old and hearing that. The hitting tools are there to be a major leaguer, and it is important to remember that he’s still quite young for his level – according to Baseball-Reference the league differential last year was -2.2. So while he isn’t the Promised One that the Braves originally thought he was, he still has a lot of time to actualize the good potential he does possess.
    Best Known For: Being one of the more hyped international signings in recent memory.  Big time power.
    17. STIWARD AQUINO RHP (21)
    Stats: 6.87 ERA in 36.2 IP, 16 walks and 49 strikeouts in Rookie ball.
    Ranking Trends: 8, 14, 16, 17, 19, 22, 25, 27.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: Another live arm with a wide range of possible outcomes, which is well-reflected in the ranking trends. Aquino’s numbers don’t look impressive, but he flashed good potential at times. His game log displays erratic performance, so hopefully with more innings he’ll settle down. Another pitcher whose future might be in the bullpen.
    Best Known For: A great name and a mid-90’s fastball. 
    18. ALEXANDER RAMIREZ OF (17)
    Stats: .234/.328/.429 in 39 games in the Dominican League (Foreign Rookie).
    Ranking Trends: 15, 15, 15, 17, 17, 19, 28, NR.
    ETA: 2025.
    Comments: There’s not a lot to go on at this point, but there’s a reason Billy Eppler gave the young Dominican a $1 million signing bonus upon turning 16 years old. He should be coming States-side in 2020, so look for him in the AZL. He is very young, just 17 in August, and has a ton of young outfielders ahead of him, but is at least worth having in the back of your mind as a high-ceiling prospect to look forward to.
    Best Known For: Angels top international signee from last year.  Power and speed are more advanced than originally anticipated. 
    19. KYLE BRADISH RHP (23)
    Stats: 4.28 ERA in 101 IP, 53 walks and 120 strikeouts in A+ Inland Empire.
    Ranking Trends: 12, 15, 21, 21, 21, 23, 24, 25.
    ETA: 2021.
    Comments: Bradish may forever be paired with Aaron Hernandez, as he was drafted right after him. Like Hernandez, he’s a college pitcher who projects as a major league starter, but is considered to have a lower ceiling. Clearly he has to work on his control, but after a solid first professional season, he’s establishing a solid floor to build from.
    Best Known For: Advanced college arm that will climb the minor league ladder quickly. 
    20. JARED WALSH OF/1B/RHP (26)
    Stats: .325/.423/.686, 36 HR in 98 AAA games (Salt Lake); .203/.276/.329 in 31 major league games. Pitching: 4.15 ERA, 13 IP, 5 walks and 9 strikeouts in AAA; 1.80 ERA, 5 IP, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts in the majors.
    Ranking Trends: 12, 18, 19, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27.
    ETA: 2019
    Comments: It is hard not to like Walsh. Not only did he absolutely kill AAA pitching, but he is also trying to make it as a two-way player in the majors. Unlike Taylor Ward, this gives him a flexibility that might give him a longer leash as a useful—even ideal-- “26th man” on the major league roster next year.
    Best Known For: Being the Angels “other” two-way player. 
    21. TRENT DEVEAUX OF (20)
    Stats: .238/.320/.422 in 60 games in Rookie ball (AZL, Orem).
    Ranking Trends: 13, 17, 18, 19, 21, 23, 29, NR.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: After a disappointing season in 2018 (.199/.309/.247 in 44 AZL games), Deveaux adjusted well to States-side professional baseball, showing flashes of the potential that led the Angels to sign him. There’s a lot to like here, but he simply needs time to develop. He’s probably got both a higher ceiling and lower floor than his fellow Bahamanian, D’Shawn Knowles. He’s a good candidate for a breakout season in 2020, which should be his first full season in A ball.
    Best Known For: Being the Angels top international signee from two years ago.  Bahamian with 80-grade speed. 
    22. OLIVER ORTEGA RHP (23)
    Stats: 4.14 ERA in 111 IP, 57 walks and 135 strikeouts in A+/AA ball.
    Ranking Trends: 14, 18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 26, NR.
    ETA: 2021.
    Comments: Ortega seemed to come out of nowhere and reminds us that players do indeed rise up from the Dominican League through the minor leagues. He’s on the verge of the major league radar.
    Best Known For: Bursting onto the scene at the end of last year and beginning of this year with mid-90’s fastball. 
    23. AROL VERA SS (17)
    Stats: Did not play.
    Ranking Trends: 14, 17, 18, 21, 23, 24, NR, NR.
    ETA: 2025.
    Comments: A top international signing, the word on Vera is that he’s a tall (6’2”), lean, and promising switch-hitting shortstop with a strong hit-tool. He’s a long way away, but fits in a similar category with Alexander Ramirez.
    Best Known For: Angels most expensive international signee since Roberto Baldoquin (not counting Kevin Maitan).  Great power projection from both sides of the plate. 
    24. WILLIAM HOLMES OF/RHP (19)
    Stats: .326/.431/.488 in 11 Rookie games; 5.18 ERA, 24.1 IP, 20 walks, 38 strikeouts.
    Ranking Trends: 17, 20, 21, 22, 23, 26, 26, NR.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: The third two-player in the Angels system, along with Ohtani and Walsh. Holmes is the player formerly known as William English. There’s a lot to like here, with a nice showing with the bat and some promise on the mound.
    Best Known For: Being the rare draftee from Detroit, also happens to be a two-way player with scattered intriguing skills on both sides of the ball. 
    25. LUIZ GOHARA LHP (23)
    Stats: Did not play (injuries).
    Ranking Trends: 16, 17, 19, 22, 24, 28, 29 NR.
    ETA: 2018.
    Comments: Released by the Braves, the Angels signed the Brazilian Gohara as a free agent in August. He’s pretty much the definition of a potential “clean peanut,” which also makes him really difficult to assess. Before the 2018 season, Baseball America ranked as the #23 prospect in all of baseball—that was after dominating A+ and AA, and getting a solid taste of AAA, even five starts in the majors at the age of 20 years old. But then his troubles began, and he didn’t perform well in the minors and eventually missed all of 2019 with a shoulder injury. While it is easly to get excited about his upside, the Braves released him for a reason. We can hope that they made a terrible mistake, but don’t count on it. Gohara goes into the 2020 season as perhaps the biggest in-house wildcard that could make a surprise impact on the major league pitching staff.
    Best Known For: Being one of the top prospects in all of baseball only a little over a year ago.  Used to have upper-90’s heat before shoulder injury. Currently rehabbing from surgery.  One of the very rare Brazilian baseball players. 
    26. ROBINSON PINA RHP (21)
    Stats: 3.83 ERA, 108 IP, 61 walks, 146 strikeouts in A ball (Burlington).
    Ranking Trends: 13, 20, 20, 25, 27, 27, 30, NR.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: Given his performance in 2019, it is almost surprising that Pina isn’t ranked higher. But if he continues this level of play in A+ and above, he could leapfrog several pitching prospects by year’s end. Definitely one to watch, with major league potential.
    Best Known For: Tall and lanky.  Herky-jerky motion.  Misses lots of bats. Reports indicate low-90’s fastball .  
    27. LUIS MADERO RHP (23)
    Stats: 5.03 ERA, 105.2 IP, 31 walks, 98 strikeouts in A+/AA.
    Ranking Trends: 10, 20, NR, NR, NR, NR, NR, NR.
    ETA: 2022
    Comments: Madero was a bit of a darling among Angelswin prospects hounds after his breakout 2018 campaign (3.49 ERA, 27 walks and 95 strikeouts in 105.2 IP in A/A+). While his ERA rose substantially, his peripherals held steady and perhaps we’re being a bit too bearish on him. He isn’t far from being on the major league depth chart.
    Best Known For: Mid-90’s fastball.  Added to the Angels 40-man ahead of last year’s Rule 5 Draft. 
    28. LIVAN SOTO SS/2B (20)
    Stats: .220/.304/.256 in 311 PA in A/Rookie ball.
    Ranking Trends: 14, 24, 30, NR, NR, NR, NR, NR.
    ETA: 2024.
    Comments: The second of the “stolen” Braves prospects, Soto had a disappointing follow-up to his promising first year in the Angels farm system. Right now he projects as a very weak-hitting but solid fielding middle infielder, but he’s also got some physical development ahead of him. 2020 should give us a better sense of his ultimate potential.
    Best Known For: Being the “other” prospect the Braves lost that the Angels signed.  Defensive wizard. Weighs about as much as a women’s olympic gymnast. 
    29. ADRIAN RONDON IF (21)
    Stats: .266/.317/.378 in 69 games in Rookie/A ball.
    Ranking Trends: 25, 25, 26, 27, 30, NR, NR, NR.
    ETA: 2023.
    Comments: We’ve got a Rondon! Eppler seems to like former highly regarded international prospects; while never quite as lauded as Maitan, Rondon’s story is similar: the Tampa Rays gave him a $3 million signing bonus in 2015, but he struggled in the minor leagues. He held his own last year, but nothing exciting – so far. There’ still untapped potential and relative youth on his side.
    Best Known For: One of the more hyped international signees in recent memory.  Angels traded practically nothing for him. Great bat speed, recently moved to 3B.
    30. GARRETT STALLINGS RHP (22)
    Stats: Did not play.
    Ranking Trends: 22, 25, 29, 29, 29, NR, NR, NR.
    ETA: 2022.
    Comments: The Angels’ 5th round pick in 2019, Stallings is a bit of a sleeper pick who could reach the majors relatively quickly. He probably projects as a back-end starter, but is one to keep an eye on.
    Best Known For: Brilliant performance in the heavily scouted Cape Cod League.  Could climb the minor league ladder very quickly. 
     
    Other Ranked Players: Jeremy Beasley, Jose Bonilla, Denny Brady, Sadrac Franco, Jake Jewell, Orlando Martinez, Isaac Mattson, Leonardo Rivas, Jose Rojas, Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren.
  8. Angelsjunky
    By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA - Mike Trout
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    Watching Anthony Rendon in the World Series got me thinking about how he ranks among baseball’s superstars, and who the very best players in baseball are. Clearly the best is obvious, but what about everyone else? How would they rank? And how to rank them? What started as a fun little time-wasting personal project quickly spiralled out of hand and consumed some hours of the last few days, and resulted in an actual article. So as the offseason begins, enjoy...
    A Note on Process
    If you're not interested in the process and formula and just want to see the list, go ahead and skip ahead. The formula is simple, but some might find it tedious or headache-inducing. But I've enclosed it in spoilers, so as not to confuse.
    The List
    I wrote this in installments for the forum, but will share it here as one piece. It will still be presented as a countdown, from #21 to #1, and then with some odds and ends at the end.
    By now you know I’m cheating: I’m offering a top 21, because while I’m OK excluding #22 Ketel Marte (for now), I cannot bear to keep José Altuve off the list.
    Finally, a note of clarification: This list is meant to answer the question about who the best players are in the game right now based upon the above weighted WAR formula; in other words, this is right now; it is not meant as a list of future value, or who I personally would take in a fantasy or real draft. The list and ordering will change (and perhaps we'll revisit it next year).
    Without further ado...
     
    THE TWENTY-ONE BEST POSITION PLAYERS IN BASEBALL (Going into 2020)
    Note: Each player entry will include their Three-Year Weighted fWAR, team, position, and 2020 age, with a line for 2019 statistics.

    By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA - Jose Altuve
    #21: JOSÉ ALTUVE 4.7 (Astros, 2B, 30)
    2019 Stats: .298/.353/.550, 138 wRC+, 3.5 WAR, 31 HR.
    You might be surprised to find the Great Little One so far down this list, but Altuve has actually been on a trajectory of decline over the last couple years: from a career-best 7.6 fWAR in 2017, to 4.9 in 2018 and 3.5 this year. We've also seen his batting average plummet from .346 to .316 to .298 during that span, although with career-best power numbers in 2019 (31 HR, .252 ISO). Given his career-low .303 BABIP in 2019, chances are he bounces back at least somewhat in 2020. Altuve is interesting in that a few years ago he was pretty much this era's Tony Gwynn, with three batting titles in four years (2014, 2016-17); now he's hitting far more HR than Gwynn ever did. He's early into a mega-contract, with $29 million due each year through 2024, so it will be interesting to see how he ages. 2020 should determine if he's now "only" a very good player, or if he can maintain his place among the best in the game.
    #20:  PETER ALONSO 4.8 (Mets, 1B, 25)
    2019 Stats: .260/.358/.583, 143 wRC+, 4.8 WAR, 53 HR.
    Talk about a rookie year. Considering the fact that he only has one year to his name, Alonso’s ranking is based entirely on his 2019 performance, so is a bit more tenuous than other players. But given his incredible season, including a rookie record 53 HR, I think he deserves inclusion. He's a classic Killebrew-esque power hitting first baseman: low average, immense power, an above average amount of walks (72) and tons of strikeouts (183). My guess is that there's more of all of the above to come. If he adds 30 points to his BA, he'll be one of the very best hitters in baseball.
    #19: RONALD ACUÑA Jr. 4.8 (Braves, CF, 22)
    2019 Stats: .280/.365/.518, 126 wRC+, 5.6 WAR, 41 HR, 37 SB.
    Such discussion is never had on this web-site, of course, but when people talk about who might eventually surpass Mike Trout as the best player in baseball, Acuña's name is frequently mentioned. While he's far from Trout, consider that he just finished his age 21 season with 9.3 career fWAR, good for 22nd best all time through that age (Trout had already accrued more than twice that with 20.9, but this isn’t about him). Acuña is the full package, with a career line of .285/.365/.532 in his first 1202 PA: not bad for a 21-year old. If you want something to complain about, despite more HR and WAR (mostly due to more games played), his 2019 actually saw a slight drop in wRC+ from 143 to 126. But he did almost join the exclusive 40-40 club and the sky is the limit for this kid.
    #18: TREVOR STORY 4.8 (Rockies, SS, 27)
    2019 Stats: .294/.363/.554, 121 wRC+, 5.8 WAR, 35 HR, 23 SB.
    I was surprised to see Story end up so high. While he’s been around for four years now, he’s not a star I pay a lot of attention to, although that might be because the Rockies are a team not many outside of Colorado pays attention to. But Story is very, very good, if enjoying the usual Coors-inflated numbers. After a sophomore slump in 2017, which saw his excellent rookie fWAR of 3.1 drop to 1.4, he has established himself as a bonafide star, with a 5.1 and 5.8 fWAR the last two years, with very similar stats. A nice complementary star to Colorado’s franchise player, who we’ll encounter a little later on.
    #17: YASMANI GRANDAL 4.9 (Brewers, C, 31)
    2019 Stats: .246/.380/.468, 121 wRC+, 5.2 WAR, 28 HR.
    For those wondering why a few Angels fans keep lingering over the name “Yasmani Grandal” for possible free agent signings, this is exactly why: he’s one of the twenty best position players in the game. Grandal has quietly been consistently very good for half a decade, averaging exactly 5.0 fWAR over the last five years – incredible numbers for a catcher. And you’ve got to love that .380 OBP, based on a career-high 109 walks. According to this formula, he’s the second best catcher in baseball.
    #16: MAX MUNCY 5.0 (Dodgers, 2B/1B/3B/OF, 30)
    2019 Stats: .251/.374/.515, 134 wRC+, 4.8 WAR, 35 HR.
    Muncy’s an unusual player, both because he plays a bunch of positions adequately, but also because he emerged relatively late in his career; after not catching on with the Athletics, he broke out at age 27 in 2018 for the Dodgers. His ranking might be a bit generous as I only included his two full seasons in the formula, but his 10 WAR over the last two years makes him one of the twenty best in the game.
    #15: GEORGE SPRINGER 5.0 (Astros, OF, 30)
    2019 Stats: .292/.383/.591, 156 wRC+, 6.5 WAR, 39 HR.
    While Springer has been a borderline star for a few years now, he finally had the breakout year people had been expecting, with career highs in almost every category – despite only playing in 122 games. If he has a similar year next year, he could threaten the top 10.
    #14: J.T. REALMUTO 5.2 (Phillies, C, 29)
    2019 Stats: .275/.328/.493, 108 wRC+, 5.7 WAR, 25 HR.
    According to this metric, Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball, but it is close, and Grandal has been good for longer. Add in the fact that a huge amount of Realmuto’s WAR value in 2019 came from Fangraphs’ new catcher framing stats, giving him 27.8 Defensive Runs—about half of his 5.7 WAR—and that his hitting was down from 2018, and I think you could argue that Grandal should get the edge, at least for past performance; but Realmuto is likely to be better going forward. Either way, Realmuto is one of two really good catchers in the major leagues, with everyone else far behind. Consider that over the last three years, Realmuto leads all catchers with 15.0 WAR; Grandal is a close second at 14.0, but then it drops all the way to the once-great Buster Posey at 8.9 and the erratic Gary Sanchez at 8.3.
    #13: JOSÉ RAMÍREZ 5.4 (Indians, 3B, 27)
    2019 Stats: .255/.327/.479, 104 wRC+, 3.3 WAR, 23 HR, 24 SB.
    If we were doing this list a year ago, Ramirez would rank in the top 5 with a three-year weighted WAR of 7.0. But he started slumping in late 2018 and was absolutely terrible through half of 2019, before finding his swing in late June. Who knows what to expect next year, but from June 21 on he hit .325/.371/.703 in 229 PA, so I think it is safe to say that he’s back and will rise again up this list. Of all 21 players on this list, he had the worst 2019 season, but consider that if it was a typical year for him, he’d still be among the best 40 or so players in the game.
    #12: AARON JUDGE 5.4 (Yankees, RF, 28)
    2019 Stats: .272/.381/.540, 141 wRC+, 4.6 WAR, 27 HR in 102 games.
    If not for injury, Judge would rank higher. After an incredible rookie year that saw him hit .284/.422/.627 with 52 HR and a major league leading 8.3 fWAR--not unlike Peter Alonso's rookie season, but with more contact and walks--earning him the Rookie of the Year Award and second place MVP, Judge played 112 and 102 games in 2018 and 2019, respectively. His rate stats dropped a bit, but if healthy he’s still one of the better hitters in the game and a top 10 player.

    By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA - Aaron Judge
    #11: MARCUS SEMIEN 5.4 (Athletics, SS, 29)
    2019 Stats: .285/.369/.522, 137 wRC+, 7.6 WAR, 33 HR in 162 games.
    Probably the most surprising name on this list—not only because he’s on this list, but how high he’s ranked. Semien has been a good player for a few years, but he became a great one in 2019. Whether or not it is sustainable is a big question, although I expect his ranking to drop a bit. Anyhow, of all the players on this list Semien's ranking makes me question the formula the most. On the other hand, it also illustrates just how good he was in 2019.
    #10: XANDER BOGAERTS 5.6 (Red Sox, SS, 27)
    2019 Stats: .309/.384/.555, 141 wRC+, 6.8 WAR, 33 HR in 155 games.
    After being a consistently very good player for four years, Bogaerts finally broke through to superstardom. Given Mookie Betts' questionable future on the Red Sox, Bogaerts could be the face of the only franchise with four World Series championships in the 21st century for the next seven years, as he is signed through 2026. I personally think this is him maxed out and he probably won't go much higher, but will still be fixture on this list for years to come.
    #9: FRANCISCO LINDOR 5.7 (Indians, SS, 26)
    2019 Stats: .284/.335/.518, 114 wRC+, 4.4 WAR, 32 HR, 22 SB in 143 games.
    Lindor probably had the worst season of his five-year career in 2019 (his 4.0 WAR in 2015, his rookie year, was in 99 games), but may have been hampered by a nagging calf injury that saw hm miss the first few weeks. He was still very good, but it was a slightly disappointing season compared to 2018. If he bounces back, he’ll rise a bit. He's won the crown of best shortstop in the game.
    #8: MATT CHAPMAN 5.7 (Athletics, 3B, 27)
    2019 Stats: .249/.342/.506, 125 wRC+, 6.1 WAR, 36 HR in 156 games.
    Chapman is a very good hitter, but a great defender, likely to win his second Gold Glove in a row. He should be a fixture on this list for years to come, especially if he improves his contact rate.
    #7: NOLAN ARENADO 5.8 (Rockies, 3B, 29)
    2019 Stats: .315/.379/.583, 128 wRC+, 5.9 WAR, 41 HR in 155 games.
    Is there any more consistent player in baseball? Arenado’s hit between 37 and 42 HR and at least 110 RBI in each of the last five years, although a comparatively more modest--but still very good--121 to 132 wRC+ during that span. Consider his 2017-19 fWARs: 5.7, 5.7, 5.9. At 29, there’s no reason to expect a down-turn in the next couple years; the Rockies certainly hope not, as he’ll be one of the highest paid players in baseball through 2025, his age 34 season.
    #6: CODY BELLINGER 5.8 (Dodgers, 1B/OF, 24)
    2019 Stats: .305/.406/.629, 162 wRC+, 7.8 WAR, 47 HR in 156 games.
    Doesn’t it seem like the Dodgers—despite being one of the better teams of the last 15 years or so—haven’t quite been able to find that franchise player? Adrian Beltre had that ridiculously good breakout year in 2004, but then signed with the Mariners; Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp looked very promising, but after Kemp’s second-place MVP finish in 2011, he struggled with injury, and Ethier never became more than very good. And remember when Yasiel Puig was, for maybe a month, talked about as the Dodgers’ answer to Mike Trout? Corey Seager looked promising and while quite good, has been a bit disappointing. Anyhow, they may finally have their guy in Bellinger, although it is worth noting that he was two very different players in the first and second half of the year: In the first half he hit .336 with 30 HR; in the second, .261 with 17. Even splitting the difference, well, look at that stat line: Bellinger’s great, and only 24.
    #5: ANTHONY RENDON 6.7 (Nationals, 3B, 30)
    2019 Stats: .319/.412/.598, 154 wRC+, 7.0 WAR, 34 HR in 146 games.
    Rendon has been a star for years now—with the fourth highest fWAR in baseball over the last four seasons, at 24.2—but has generally been under the radar. 2019 was his best year yet, but he’ll still likely fall to third in MVP voting. Rendon pretty much does everything except for steal bases, but he’s not slow. He’s about to become a very, very wealthy man.
    #4: CHRISTIAN YELICH 7.2 (Brewers, RF, 28)
    2019 Stats: .329/.429/.671, 174 wRC+, 7.8 WAR, 44 HR in 130 games.
    Do you remember when the Marlins were selling off their young stars and Yelich was the guy everyone wanted? He was a good player in 2017 but not yet a great one, and the Brewers got him for an absolute steal of a package, centered on the very disappointing Lewis Brinson. Yelich became a superstar in 2018 and since then has been the second best hitter in baseball, his two-year wRC+ of 170 behind only Trout’s 185. A year from now he's a good bet to be #2 on this list.
    #3: ALEX BREGMAN 7.4 (Astros, 3B, 26)
    2019 Stats: .296/.423/.592, 168 wRC+, 8.5 WAR, 41 HR in 156 games.
    We truly are in a golden age of third basemen—half of the top eight on this list, plus a few others in the top 30—and Bregman is the best of the lot and just keeps getting better. Oh yeah, Bregman is one of three Astros on this list, and that doesn’t include Carlos Correa or Yordan Alvarez. Anyhow, after a very good first full year in 2017, Bregman jumped to superstardom in 2018 and was even better in 2019, a bonafide MVP candidate.
    #2: MOOKIE BETTS 7.7 (Red Sox, RF, 27)
    2019 Stats: .295/.391/.524, 135 wRC+, 6.6 WAR, 29 HR in 150 games.
    Angels fans like to bag on Mookie as being “not Trout,” but boy is this little guy a good player. Looking only at his last few odd-number seasons you’d think he was really good, but it is his last two even number years that have made people question whether he’s as good as Trout. In fact, his 2018 was—according to fWAR at 10.4—better than any Trout year, and the best year by any player since Barry Bonds. And while Trout was amazing in 2018 with a 9.8 fWAR in 140 games, Betts actually played in four fewer games. But Betts isn’t quite as consistent as Trout: since his first full season in 2015, his fWARs have been 4.8, 8.3, 5.3, 10.4, and 6.6. And it is important to note that his 185 wRC+ in 2018 was fueled by a .368 BABIP, well above his career average of .314. Chances are 2018 was a career year and that he might slip a bit in these rankings, at least below Bregman and Yelich, but Betts is a truly great player and should—at the least—remain one of the ten or so best players in the game for years to come.

    By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA - Mookie Betts
    #1: MIKE TROUT 8.7 (Angels, CF, 28)
    2019 Stats: .291/.438/.645, 180 wRC+, 8.6 WAR, 45 HR in 134 games.
    Did you expect anyone else? Trout is #1 by a solid 1.0 WAR margin. He's actually reached a new level of performance in 2017-19, with a 180, 190, and 180 wRC+, averaging 10.5 fWAR per 162 games played. The lone concern is that he's missed at least 22 games in each of the last three years. Injury kept him from 50 HR and 10 WAR in 2019 (as well as 2018), but he still managed career highs in HR, ISO, and SLG, and led the majors in WAR, if only just barely. If healthy, he should reach the 10 fWAR mark and could even have an 11 fWAR season in him over the next few years. Sit back and enjoy.
     
    ADDENDUM: ODDS AND ENDS
    Honorable Mentions (aka the Next Dozen)
    Ketel Marte 4.5, Freddie Freeman 4.5, Javier Baez 4.4, Juan Soto 4.4, Kris Bryant 4.3, Bryce Harper 4.2, Eugenio Suarez 4.2, J.D. Martinez 4.2, Paul Goldschmidt 4.1, Manny Machado 4.0, Tommy Pham 4.0, Justin Turner 4.0.
    That is a nice place to cut it off, as everyone else has a 3.9 Weighted fWAR or lower.
    Surprise Absenses
    Who is not mentioned in the expanded 33 Best Players (the 21 listed but 12 honorable mentions)? Well, the first name that comes to my mind is Carlos Correa, who after two 5 fWAR seasons in 2016-17, was a contender for at least the top 10. I remember people debating whether Correa or Lindor was going to be the best shortstop of the future; that seems to have been decided, at least for now. Correa’s struggles are mainly injury-related as he’s played only 185 games over the last two seasons with a total of 4.8 fWAR. If he can remain healthy, he has a chance to become the fourth Astro in the top 20.
    Giancarlo Stanton also comes to mind. After a career high 59 HR and 7.3 WAR in 2017 for the Marlins, he became a merely garden-variety slugger for the Yankees the following year (38 HR, 4.3 WAR), and then missed all but 18 games in 2019. He’ll be 30 next year, so we’ll see if he can re-find his 2017 form.
    A couple others I’d like to mention: Josh Donaldson had a comeback 4.9 WAR season, but is still not quite as good as his 2013-17 peak when his 34.4 fWAR was second only to You Know Who. He’ll need another two more similar seasons to sneak back on this list; at 34 that will be difficult, but possible, I suppose.
     Finally, a note on Buster Posey. Despite winning an MVP and three World Series, he may be a bit under-appreciated, at least outside of the Bay Area. As with Donaldson, he can claim to be the second best player in baseball over a chunk of years, with a 42.9 fWAR over a six-year span of 2012-17. Like many catchers, he’s been underrated, and like most catchers, he’s declined early, with a rather steap decline over the last three years, from 6.7 fWAR in 2014 to 4.7, 2.3, and 1.8 last year.  
    Threats for 2021:Up-and-Comers
    The youth revolution continues in baseball, with a bunch of young players establishing themselves as stars. Juan Soto, Yoan Moncada, Ozzie Albies, Jeff McNeil, Rafael Devers, Max Kepler, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, Keston Hiura, and Fernando Tatis Jr are among the candidates for this list a year or two from now, depending upon how they develop. Some of these guys may already be as good as players listed above, but just need the playing time to prove it.
  9. Angelsjunky
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist
    #26: WAR per 162 games
    I’m saving my favorite one for the penultimate entry: WAR per 162 games played. This stat, which for some reason isn’t used by any of the statistical sites, measures quality: that is, how good a player is per 162 games played, measured by WAR. The formula is simple: Career WAR divided by 162 games. With the MLB and MLBPA officially put in place a 60-game regular season with the standard 10-team playoff, the Yankees (+450) and Dodgers (+375) both saw their odds drop in the latest World Series odds on SBD. A shorter season means increased volatility.

    Meaning, according to this metric, only Ruth has been a better per-game player. Considering the evolution of the game--especially the fact that Ruth only played seven other teams--this is as good as any  evidence that Trout has been, pound-for-pound—and thus far—arguably the greatest player in baseball history. Now of course he will go down as he declines, but he almost certainly will remain in the top 10.
    Among active players, he blows the competition away (although the above chart helps us re-appreciate just how good some of his contemporaries have been).
    #27: Summary
    This last entry is a summation of all that came for – meaning, the total picture that all of these stats paint:
    5th all-time in CF JAWS with 69.2 (Willies Mays is 1st with 114.9). 31st all-time in all position players JAWS with 69.2 (Babe Ruth is 1st with 123.5). 3rd all-time in WAR7 (best seven years by WAR) for CFs with 65.6 (Mays is 1st with 73.5). 1st all-time in WAR through age 27 with 73.4. 3rd all-time in WAR through age 28 with 73.4, without playing any games in his age 2 season yet (Cobb is 1st with 78.6). 47th all-time WAR for position players with 73.4; all players ahead of him have played at least 474 more games. Has 2 of 54 (3.7%) 10+ WAR seasons since 1901. Has 2 of 13 (15.4%) 10 WAR seasons since 1970. One of only nine players with seven or more 8 WAR seasons (along with Ruth, Mays, Bonds, Wagner, Hornsby, Gehrig, Williams, and Collins). One of only ten players with five or more 9 WAR seasons (along with Ruth, Hornsby, Bonds, Mays, Wagner, Williams, Rodriguez, Collins, and Cobb). One of only ten players with two or more 10 WAR seasons (along with Ruth, Hornsby, Bonds, Mays, Williams, Cobb, Mantle, Wagner, and Gehrig). One of only seven players to reach all three benchmarks above (along with Wagner, Ruth, Hornsby, Williams, Mays, and Bonds). Of the above listed retired players (all but Trout), Mantle has the lowest career WAR with 112.3, #14 all-time.  1st in WAR from 2012-19 with 72.7 (Posey is second with 47.1, or 25.6 lower) 8th best career high eight-year span with 72.7 WAR (2012-19); Babe Ruth’s 1920-27 is highest, with 89.7. 4th best among active players with a .305 career Batting Average, behind Miguel Cabrera (.315), Jose Altuve (.315), and Joey Votto (.307). 5th most HR through age 27 with 285 (Alex Rodriguez is 1st with 345). One of seven players to hit 30+ HR six or more times through age 27. 23rd all-time with 752 RBI through age 27. 10th all-time with 903 Runs Scored through age 27. 10th all-time with an 84.713 SB%. 4th all-time with 803 walks through age 27 (Mantle is 1st with 892). One of only eleven players with 4 or more 100-walk seasons through age 27. 21st all-time with a career .419 OBP. 9th all-time with a career .581 SLG, 6th from 1970-present. One of only seven players with a career OPS (OBP + SLG) of 1.000 or higher, with exactly 1.000. 5th all-time with a career OPS+ (Adjusted OPS) with 176. 1st in WPA (Win Probability Added) through age 27 with 44.17, from 1974 to the present. He holds the top five Angels position player seasons by WAR, seven of the top eight, and all eight of his seasons are within the top 13. Very similar, or slightly better, career statistics to Mickey Mantle. 2nd highest WAR per 162 games with 9.92 (Ruth is 1st with 10.90).  Wrapping Up
    What you’re seeing above is the statistical evidence that Mike Trout, thus far, has been one of the very best players in baseball history. Assuming a typical decline pattern, he’s going to finish in the top 10 in WAR; he’s already halfway to benig in the top 5.
    Among his historical comps--that is, players who have performed at a similarly high level as consistently as Trout has--we mostly have players who played before World War 2. We have several players from a century ago: Honus Wagner, Eddie Collins, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, and Lou Gehrig. We have mid-century greats like Ted Williams, Willie Mays, and Mickey Matle. And we have only two recent players in Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. No other players are in the same league as Trout's performance thus far, and he will likely end up with better careers than some of them. 
    We all know he’s great, but it is easy to forget just how great. Chances are we’ll never see another Angels player this good in our lifetimes, so let’s appreciate every moment of Mike Trout baseball while we can.
    The Complete Mike Trout 27-for-27 Series:
    View our running TROUTstanding fan discussion thread (Est: 2018) here! 

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