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Angelsjunky last won the day on February 6

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  1. Yes, I agree. But Chris Taylor is going to be more expensive - he sort of splits the difference between the second tier elite guys (Story, Baez) and Villar/Canha. Escobar is right there, too. But yeah, those are the type of guys I'd recommend over spending huge on Correa, Semien, Baez, Seager, and Story.
  2. Let's make a few assumptions: The Angels won't lose Trout and Rendon for a combined 230 games. Fletcher will bounce back to being, at least, close to league average as a hitter (say, 90 wRC+ or better). Adell and Marsh will continue to improve, to at least league average (they were 90 and 86 wRC+ this year) Upton will be latter-day Upton, about league average offensively. 2021 was Walsh's and Stassi's true talent level (127 and 107 wRC+). Ohtani will be close to as good as he was in in 2021 (152 wRC+); maybe a bit worse, maybe a bit better. I don't see anything above that is outrageous, or even unlikely. The big question mark is health. What that means is that the Angels have four hitters who should hit around 127 wRC+ or higher (I use 127, because that was Walsh's wRC+ this year). Meaning, four star-caliber hitters. In 2021, there were 40 qualifying hitters with a 127 wRC+ or better, so if the same holds true next year, and my predictions above happen, then the Angels will have 4 of the top 40 hitters in baseball. But it gets better. Before this year, Rendon had a wRC+ of 140 or higher in the previous four seasons (2017-20). Let's say he bounces back to 140, Ohtani is 140-160, and Trout 160+. That would give the Angels three 140 or better wRC+ hitters, of which there were only 14 this year. Meaning, next year the Angels could not only have 4 of the top 40 (impressive) but 3 of the top 15 (terrific). If you have 3 of the top 15 (or 4 of the top 40) you really only need an average group of hitters around them. I think Stassi, Fletcher, Adell, Marsh, Upton, possibly Ward, and even Rengifo/Mayfield can manage that. And that's without possible breakthroughs from Adell or Marsh, either (or both) of whom could jump to 110+ wRC+. Meaning, the key to a very good offense year is not an expensive shortstop, but health.
  3. It is difficult to answer this without considering other factors, not only immediate (e.g. does it impact their ability to sign the pitching they need?) and long-term (e.g. how does it hinder payroll flexibility down the line)? I mean, obviously I'd love to have Correa or Semien, but considering the whole picture I'm going with Rengifo/Mayfield and a cheapish free agent like Villar. In spring training, Rengifo, Mayfield, and Stefanic audition for UT.
  4. LOL at the last page. Anyhow, I'd rather see the Red Sox lose. But who knows how this series will go.
  5. OK, didn't know that. He'd drop down...above Syndergaard, but below Gausman, Stroman, Ray as far as long-term.
  6. Just 2022, not their utmost potential. In other words, what's the over/under for whether or not you'll be disappointed with their performance? Vote.
  7. My sense is the only way out of "TTO Fundamentalism" is for someone to prove that there are other ways. I would have thought that would be the case after the Royals in 2014-15, but it wasn't to be, at least not yet. It is more systemic, with young players learning to loft the ball and thinking their only path to the majors is hitting home runs. That said, baseball does change. TTO fundamentalism will likely soften. It is just still the latest thing.
  8. Nice post. I think there's a fallacy here, though, that it is either TTO or smallball. And perhaps a second one, that smallball can't compete (if done well). For the latter, the case in point is the 2014-15 Royals, which lost a seven game World Series and then won the next, with a very smallball/80s approach, and they didn't have a big base-stealer, just a bunch of guys who could play hit-and-run, and of course their secret weapon, Jarrod Dyson. I'll never forget how they won a WS game by getting a single, pinch-running Dyson, and then him stealing his way to a run. Kendrys Morales led the 2015 team with 22 HR and a .485 SLG. But they knew how to manufacture runs, and had very good pitching, especially their bullpen. Yes, TTO is what has proven to score more runs over the course of a season, but I think teams have become overly reliant on it, as if there is only one way to succeed. But more to the point, a team can be based in TTO, but still learn a bit of smallball. Or any variation, really, as long as it is done well. Meaning, I don't think TTO is the problem as much as teams thinking it is the only way, that there aren't other paths to building a good ball team, including hybrid approaches. For instance, I'd love to see an offense built on OBP and speed. It would score a ton of runs and be a lot of fun to watch.
  9. According to fWAR, it was the 11th best season by an Angel in franchise history, behind seven Trout seasons and one each by Ryan (1973), Erstad and Glaus (both in 2000).
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