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This may not be everyone's cup of tea. If you don't have interest in more advanced stats, then look away. This exercise in only meant to provide a little insight into the future and how things might not be what you think or what you see. Granted, the outcome of each game is always going to be what's most important because wins and losses are what ultimately what determine whether you make the playoffs. But sometimes, especially in a 60 game season, the outcomes can be severely impacted by a small sample size and what was 'expected' may not actually align with what happened. So with that being said, I give you 'baseruns'. This has been mentioned in several threads on the board but I thought it might worthy of it's own discussion. Again, take it for what you think it's worth, but I find it valuable in helping to assess the future. Here is a link to how baseruns work: https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/ It a nutshell, it's an exercise of what should have happened vs. what we know happened. The current AL WEST standings would be as follows if things went as expected. Oakland 29-25 .539 Angels 30-26 .528 Astros 27-28 .490 Mariners 22-33 .403 Rangers 20-35 .370 So the Angels and Oakland would be in a dogfight for the division title going into the last 4 games with Houston having and outside shot. The Angels have 5 less wins than they should and the A's have four more wins than they should. The Angels should have scored 5.04 runs per games vs. the 4.96 runs per game they did score. Not a huge difference. They should have allowed 4.75 runs per game and have allowed 5.32. A big difference and likely related to poor defense as many have mentioned with @Inside Pitch ringing the bell on this very early. So what do I think this means? To me, it means that we are probably better than we all might think. Still not great or without needed upgrades but we could improve our record more quickly that it might appear. What it also means to me is that the A's probably aren't as good as their record shows and that the division is truly wide open for next year. We very well could have an opportunity here to open a window of success for the next few years without needing an act of God for it to happen.

Lol. Why should anyone give a shit. Anyone who is actually bothered by this is brain damaged.

I dont see anything wrong with her teeth.

I wish there were an option for "I'll vote when I know all the facts."

KEY (Categories): 1) IMPACT or STAR CALIBER (4+ WAR) | #1-2 STARTER | ELITE RELIEVER 2) Quality Regular/Strong Platoon Player (2-4 WAR) | #3-4 Starter | Quality reliever 3) Question Mark (<2 WAR) - mediocre or worse position player | fill-in starter | questionable mid-reliever The basic idea is that a category 1 is--at the very least--a very good player, either an impact player/borderline star, or a bonafide star or superstar. I'm not differentiating too much, because the point is that these are players who are definitive regulars with no significant question marks and a clear expectation of being a quality, well above average major leaguer. Only the very best relievers would fit into this category. The second category are either quality regulars or strong platoon players - meaning, players that play more than half of a platoon at a quality level, mid-rotation starters, and quality--and reliable--relievers. The third category are the question marks: either mediocre or worse regulars, prospects, or players with major concerns; this also includes classic #5-6 "filler" starters, and garden variety mid-relievers. This system allows us to look at the team in terms of strengths and weaknesses, and pinpoint areas of concern. Anything not in bold could use upgrading; theoretically a contender would have bold-face (category 1 and 2) players at almost every position, with at least a few category 1 players in the lineup and pitching staff. LINEUP C. Stassi, Bemboom 1B: Walsh, Pujols, Thaiss 2B: Rengifo, Barreto SS: FLETCHER 3B: RENDON LF: Upton CF: TROUT RF: Ward, Adell, Marsh DH: Ohtani Stassi and Walsh have been revelations, and maybe I'm being too bullish on them but I think they should--at least--be solid regulars or strong platoon players. Ward is more questionable, but I'm also veering towards optimism. We're so used to being disappointed, but the fact is that Walsh and Ward tore up AAA, so we shouldn't be surprised that their hitting is finally coming around. I'm not expecting stardom, but quality performance levels seems plausible, even likely. ROTATION: Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez. While the biggest question mark is Ohtani, who could be anything from a true ace to never pitching again, Barria is tentatively joining Bundy as another pleasant surprise. I'm banking on him at least being a good #4, and thus a viable category 2 pitcher. The good news is that depth is emerging; Heaney seems to have found his 2018 form, and Canning seems to be improving bit by bit, giving the Angels four solid mid-rotation starters, possibly five if Sandoval performs as hoped. The bad news is that the Angels still lack a bonafide ace. Even if Ohtani finally actualizes his potential, it likely won't be for more than about 20 starts and 100 IP, and even that seems like a tall order. BULLPEN: Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Andriese, Middleton, Bedrosian, Barnes, Robles, Ramirez. Who knows what to expect. Pena continues to be a solid contributor, and Mayers has pitched extremely well with peripherals that point to continued success, but Buttrey, Middleton, and Robles continue to disappoint, and clearly the bullpen needs some work. CONCLUSION: Scanning over the above, there's a lot to be optimistic about. The emergence of Stassi, Walsh and Ward allows the Angels to carry potential weak offense at 2B and possibly RF, which may end up being the only positions in the lineup with below average offense. On the other hand, Rengifo or Barreto could take a step forward, which would make the lineup very strong next year, and Ward could continue his recent performance over a full season--not to mention Marsh and Adell. All of this also allows the Angels to focus whatever funds they have to spend almost entirely on bolstering the pitching staff: 1-2 starters, and 2-3 relievers seem in order. Even just one more category 2 starter--say, Stroman, Odorizzi, or Gausman--and a couple quality relievers may be enough to push this team over the edge into legitimate contender. But I would expect Eppler (or whoever is GM) to go a bit further. This team is closer than we thought a month ago.

Can't blame him. The team isn't making the playoffs and he's heading to free agency. Why risk blowing out a knee, elbow, or ankle?

At the end if the day the Angels success or lack of falls at Artre's feet. The team started to go sour when they began to lose their identity. That identity was cultivated by Mike Scioscia and Bill Stoneman. They instilled a culture and as the team began to move away from that culture and identity the failures began. There has been a vacuum of leadership for some time now. Eppler has done the best he can within that vacuum, but Arte has to be the one who establishes the organizational culture or give the right person the autonomy to do so. He's made a mess of it, IMO. I don't know how or if this can be corrected. He's sort of like Jerry Jones. The Cowboys were great when they let Jimmy Johnson instill the culture and identity and they started to fail when Jones took over that process. I don't question Arte's desire to win. I question the culture he has created.

No, it makes her rare.

No, it would still be late September. MLB doesn't control the Earth's orbit around the sun.

Exit velocity 2020 Simba - 86.5, max 105.8 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andrelton-simmons/10847/stats#statcast Simba also has the edge in Hard Hit%. Didi - 84.3, max 104.7 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/didi-gregorius/6012/stats#statcast Didi's exit velocity is 4 MPH off where it was last year. You're making the mistake of ignoring how his home park has inflated his numbers. Home: .314/.364/.551 - .915 Away: .247/.317/.397 - .714 With Didi, the exit velocity hints at a decline in skill, something the home park might be helping to mask

Well, this sucks. I have only watched maybe 1 or 2 games this year, and maybe listened to 5 or so on the radio, but just heard the news Simmons was my fave... sucks to see him gone. Gonna miss his defense for sure, and that weird ass swing when he whips a double down the left line. Was fun as hell to watch the last few years. Didnt think hed replace aybar, and he did.

That Maddon quote is concerning. Sounds like the dude just dipped without telling anyone. Real dick move. I love Simmons but I lost an incredible amount of respect for him.

The opposite, actually. I get complimented on my penis size frequently

Really good to see Upton continue to rake as the season's end approaches and Ohtani excel after he had 5-6 games off to clear his head and work on shit. It's also good to see Ohtani hit against a lefty and start pulling the ball more.

To answer the question it has to be the coaching staff. They've turned Stassi around, helped Upton snap out of his funk and some others.

What makes Walsh and Ward interesting, and why I think many are dubious about the sustainability of their performance, is that they seemed like classic quad-A guys that put up gawdy numbers in Salt Lake, but at an older level that implied they had maxed out and wouldn't be able to translate to the majors beyond bench level. If a 22-year old hit like they did in AAA, we'd expect greatness, and perhaps coupled with some other past disappointments (e.g. Wood, McPherson), we are in the habit of expecting the worst. But they both really dominated AAA. And I think Stradling is right for looking to find the reason for how they have performed as they have this year. You'd think it would be easy for every player to just re-vamp their swing, but that usually--at the least--takes awhile to be successful, if it ever is. A book will be formed on them, but it is also rare that players hit as well as Walsh is for a sustained period and not retained at least some of the success. This isn't a hot three-game stretch; he's been doing it for about three weeks. But again, the numbers will settle down. My guess is that Walsh is more of a .270-.280ish hitter, but I think he'll also walk more, and that the power is real and he'll hit 30+ HR and slug .500+ next year, if given the opportunity.

Or maybe the answer is in the question? Gotta give these guys some credit.

I don't feel super-strongly about it one way or another but I voted "no" because really, with 5 games left, and not even eliminated from playoff contention, he's under contract and should be with the team. Unless there's a really good reason that I haven't heard yet.

Trading players after poor seasons is a terrible idea. Why sell low? Instead, we should do this: 1. Sign a FA SP (Bauer, Gausman, etc) 2. Look for interesting relievers - not Hendricks, but guys who are cheap but have potential and could benefit from working with Callaway 3. Most importantly - invest in expanding BOTH the FO and coaching staff. Provide both your major leaguers and minor leaguers with additional support and analysis. Building our infrastructure, both in terms of analytics and traditional scouting, is what will really ultimately make the biggest difference for us

When I read a post that includes the phrase "true Angel fans", i know this gonna be good.

I hope Trout opts out for the lulz.

Dodgers wanted him. That should be reason enough to hold on to him and give him a real shot in 2021.

This is the equivalent of a 10 year old on a playground asking other kids if they liked Joey more than Kenny.

nate

The best thing I’ve seen all rona

The reactions to his announcement are pathetic. Predictable, but pathetic. I wish him all the best. It was a joy watching him play.

Astra Zeneca is a good example of this. Also, I think it's kind of funny that Trump is getting called out for his lack of Rona response. But when it comes to a vaccine, people are calling him out for being too quick. It's clear he won't win over a certain demographic no matter what he does.

I want to win now, I'm 71 and don't have 20 more years to wait.

Will he be sitting in a tin can far above the world? Is the planet earth blue and there's nothing he can do?

If you quit on Arte, chances are you’re not coming back.

That doesn't sound like he'll be back next year Chuck.

We don't need any position players really, it's all pitching. Just a decent MLB hitting backup infielder is all, Stassi is a stud. Rengifo looks a lot better now.

I just wanted to say damn, Allie LaForce is a hottie... wait, what thread should that go in?

Well, I suppose if Simba has opted out to do drugs in Texas, then no, I am not okay with it.

This is a non issue you bed wetting weenies.

Hobby Lobby couldn't either.

why? why put those guys on the 40 for what are likely 5 meaningless games?

JMO. But this just signals he won't be back with the Angels no matter what. For him, it's not worth the risk of injury before FA'cy, plus his OPS is just north of .700 which probably helps in FA negotiations if I channel my inner Boras. And it won't affect the team one bit, and if it means we lose a few games because of it, might help in our draft position. So really a nutin burger.

My guess is he would care if he was immature or if he wanted to make someone a villain without knowing the facts.

Where did I say temper tantrum? I said he quit on his team. There’s 5 games left he’s over it and quit. Doesn’t want to play for the Angels anymore or doesn’t want to play while risking injury before free agency. It makes perfect sense. Youre the only one who sees it as well he quit cause someone in his family was sick and he’s doing the unselfish thing. This is selfish. He quit. It’s fine it is what it is. But you can’t just ignore the facts. No one even knew. It’s not a good look I’m sorry. The family issue that it is, is that he doesn’t want to risk losing millions by getting injured before free agency. So in that terms yes it is a family issue.

Bloomberg is spending another $100million in Florida to help get Biden elected to protect you from billionaires having all the power.

Not at all close to the same thing. The Angels are playing meaningless games and Simmons faces the risk of injuring himself and costing himself millions of dollars. Dipoto didn't face any of those risks. This is like Christain McCaffrey skipping the Sun Bowl. Big Whoop!

I just don't see how Dombriski is the best choice? He is know to spend deep money in free agency (190-200+) and will depelte the system. I know people will say he has one ring, it's true. But he's only one 2 rings and how many years has he been a gm for? It took him 9 years for the Marlins to win, we can't do this. With the Red sox, he already had a good team, and there farm system had Monacada, Devers, Benintendi, Kopech, Espinoza, Chavis in the top 10. They had a loaded, and i mean a loaded system before Dave came in (1st draft was 2016). I Rather us go for someone that works for the following teams and grab someone to be the gm. Dodgers: Best develop (both Majors and minor) and drafting Padres: Drafting! Rays: look at the dodgers Clevland: They can draft pitchers!

Can't blame him at all, no reason to risk injury or Covid in a lost season.

You're welcomed @Tank

I disagree with the common idea that we're at a binary position of either A) give up any hopes of winning during Trout's prime and continue to build from within, or B) gut the farm in order to win now. This isn't a bad team, and more importantly: it is actually a pretty good team and isn't far from being a very good team. Given a full season, this team as configured would probably win 85-90 games. Let us not forget that after a terrible start that saw the Angels at 10-22, they've played very well since: 14-9, which prorated to 162 games is a 99-win pace. I'm not saying they're a 99-win team, but they may be a 90-win team. Right now, with no changes. So what to do? I would continue to build up the farm and bolster the current team with modest free agent and trade acquisitions. I wouldn't trade away any of the higher upside players--Adell, Marsh, Adams, Detmers, C Rod, Kochanowicz, Vera, Paris, etc--but I would try to be savvy and look for another Bundy, be it via free agency (Gausman?) or trade. There is really no reason why 2021 can't begin another era like 2004-09. Whether that includes a WS championship is impossible to control. The Yankees are always good but haven't won in 11 years, the Dodgers haven't won since 1988. But almost every year they are in the thick of things, which makes the season far more interesting. Whey are they in the thick of things? I think mostly because they're smart organizations: they invest heavily in scouting and player development. They generally only offer mega-deals to premium players still in their prime. Most of the teams with perennial success have some variation of the same thing in common: excellent scouting, player development, and savvy player acquisition. And perhaps a bit of luck. I don't think Dave Dombrowski is the answer. He did win with the Red Sox in 2018, but at what cost? The Price deal essentially cost the team Mookie Betts. Kimbrel was great and then fell apart. The Sale contract is turning into a disaster. JD Martinez seems to be getting old really fast. Meaning, he caught lightning in a bottle and the Red Sox were ridiculously good, but are terrible two years later. I'm not sure Billy Eppler is the answer, either, but the team's play over the last few weeks may be more indicative of what is in store going forward than the first month or so.

If Dombrowski is hired, say goodbye to Jordyn Adams, Jose Soriano, Chris Rodriguez, Jam Jones, Luis Rengifo, Jeremiah Jackson, Arol Vera, and Matt Thaiss..... And say hello to a bloated payroll and a World Series ring. You give and take away. Dombrowski is a winner. The Angels will get themselves a solid 3-4 year window of success between 2021-2025, but come 2026, Trout will be 36, Rendon will be 38 and their window of contention wouldn't reopen again until 2030. So is 4 years of contention and one World Series ring worth a solid 5 years of rebuilding? I feel like it is, but you'd have to understand Dombrowski is the guy you bring in to win it, and he's also the guy you'll fire because he's not a rebuilder.