Offense is the Answer to Rotation Uncertainty

[wopphil]

Interestingly, the Angels were 27th in OPS out of their third-basemen, and 19th in OPS out of their first-basemen.  I would expect the addition of Freese and a healthy Pujols to help both of those positions substantially.

[Hubs]

I've said in other threads that I think offense is more important than pitching, because by the numbers the rotation wasn't that bad in 2013. The bullpen was really a lot more to blame than the rotation when it came to losing games, but they can also be forgiven as they were asked to throw pretty much 3 innings per game every game… 

 

It's why I advocated for Haren earlier in the offseason, as the one thing he does well still is pitch deep into games. Arroyo is kind of like that. 

 

The staff is going to certainly have issues this year. My point with this post was to point out that the offense will definitely improve at certain positions this year, and that should be enough with the current staff to get them into the playoffs.

[Hubs]

Yes I know the Angels were bad as a rotation in comparison to the rest of the league, but not as bad as you think. Their BP is what pushes them down to the near bottom of the rankings, as their starters were basically average.

 

Now, why?

 

Well, a starter that wasn't even planned to be in the rotation in spring training had the second most starts on the team. That's not going to happen again.

 

Weaver and Vargas (#1 and #3) were both hurt for long stretches. Blanton/Hanson combined to be a bad 5th starter. Santiago, Skaggs, Mulder, Shoemaker and whomever else will not put up that bad of a line. Weaver, Richards, and Wilson will all have thirty starts each at least. I'd hope three others combine for the other 60-72. 

[70runner]

Depending on a Pujols/Hamilton resurgence to offset a mediocre pitching staff is fools gold.  There is no evidence that either of these guys will be any better than last year.  Sure Pujols may be healthier, but the guy has a lot of wear and his age (whatever it is) makes him susceptible to old guy problems.  Either way he's a slug on the bases and limited defensively.  Hamilton can still run and field, but if he doesn't hit LHP he'll see a LOT of it. 

 

I think the pitching will be better than last year, if only by dumping Blanton & Hanson.  So there may not be as much dependence on Pujols & Hamilton which would be a good thing.  Build the offense around the best player in MLB, not the old guys.

[Hubs]

Offensively, the team will not rank 28th in OPS from third base in 2014 as they did in 2013. (.640).

I expect Freese to be more 2012 Freese than 2013 Freese. (.838 OPS) Big improvement there.

 

Shortstop will improve as I hope Aybar gets back to 2012 form (.740 OPS) versus his 2013 (.683).

 

At 2nd, I expect basically similar numbers as 2013 out of Kendrick. They had the 5th best OPS (.746) from 2nd, but Kendrick did miss time. He had a .775 OPS on the year and I expect him to play more than 6 games out of 7. So marginal improvement there. 

 

At 1st, Pujols producing like he did in 2012, which while it isn't the caliber of his 2011 or 2010 in STL, he could still do, and that means big improvement. 14th in 2013 (.748 OPS), 2nd in 2012 (.859). Pujols had an .880 OPS in his last year with STL, and a .995 OPS the year before that. This could be a spot for major improvement over 2013.

 

C should be more or less the same, excepting that I think Conger will have a better year at the plate. Angels were 12th, and they could climb a few spots or drop a few spots.

 

In LF, Hamilton should certainly at least echo the teams 2nd ranked production at .847 OPS, which is a combination of JB Shuck and Mike Trout for 2013. 

 

In CF, Trout did start the majority of the games, but Bourjos brings the numbers down a bit even with his hot start, because of the wrist injury he had and how bad he hit when he came back. The Angels ranked 1st here and I expect that to continue, but the OPS will go up probably .50 points from .922 but I could see it being even more in the phenom's third season.

 

In RF, I expect Calhoun to get the majority of starts. Angels ranked 17th here, so I expect a .70+ point improvement in OPS. He's going to at least hit to Howie Kendrick's .775 OPS but I'd expect slightly better than that due to the walks. I'm hoping for a .290 average with a .360+ OBP and a .460+ SLG (Mainly doubles power). He could approach .400 OBP and a .500 SLG, which I know sound ridiculous, but his minor league stats are really impressive at every level and he did that in every level of the minors.

[Hubs]

The "Old Guys" are both younger than me (I'm 34) and they are both MVP's in 2010. To ignore them is foolish as they will either succeed or the Angels will not. Doesn't matter how good the offense is or how good the pitching staff is. Hamilton and Pujols have to at least replicate 2012 for this team to be successful. 

 

Depending on a Pujols/Hamilton resurgence to offset a mediocre pitching staff is fools gold.  There is no evidence that either of these guys will be any better than last year.  Sure Pujols may be healthier, but the guy has a lot of wear and his age (whatever it is) makes him susceptible to old guy problems.  Either way he's a slug on the bases and limited defensively.  Hamilton can still run and field, but if he doesn't hit LHP he'll see a LOT of it. 

 

I think the pitching will be better than last year, if only by dumping Blanton & Hanson.  So there may not be as much dependence on Pujols & Hamilton which would be a good thing.  Build the offense around the best player in MLB, not the old guys.

[Angel Oracle]

Bullpen MUST perform MUCH more solidly than it has from 2009-2013.

[Brent Maguire]

Freese will help the offensive production at 3rd but he was dreadful defensively last year. I think the back injury had a part in that as well as his offensive production.

Still, it's not a good thing to have a back issue when you're entering your age 30 seasons.

I think Freese puts up a .270/.340/.420 season while playing below average defense but not the terrible defense he played last year.

A full time and healthy Pujols will make a huge difference at 1B.

[Docwaukee]

the halos didn't miss the playoffs in 2013 because of their pitching. 

 

Weird stat?

 

They had a higher pitching WAR in 2013 than they did in 2012 yet were 11 wins worse

 

It actually makes me laugh when people look at how the offense ranked relative to the rest of the league and state it wasn't the problem.  They markedly underperformed.  Especially in high leverage

 

they didn't do well in 2013 because of more than just bad pitching.  The offense underperformed.  The defense sucked.  They had weird injuries.  etc. etc. 

 

There is no rule that says you have to have top 5 or even top 10 pitching to win.  Indians (16th), Dodgers (15th), A's (11th), Rays (14th), Pirates (13th), Reds (18th).

 

Yes, balance is important, but more important is players performing as capable. 

 

Hubs is right.  There is no way this team makes the playoffs without have one of the top offenses in the league.

[stormngt]

so where do we improve our offense? What is out there that will help?

i think its too easy to say that blew up in our face when the reality is that EVERYTHING blew up in our face. literally nothing worked last year that wasn't wearing #27.

If the pitching staff had been anywhere near what it could have been we were a mid 80 win team... blaming the strategy isnt fair to me just because you didnt get the outcome you wanted. going for it on 4th down when you are losing and no time on the clock is still the right move even if it doesn't work.

It was the right move.. there was really no other move to make, same as this off season. Teams are just not letting those kind of guy get into FA anymore with a few rare exceptions.

[Hollyw00d]

agreed

[Hollyw00d]

The "Old Guys" are both younger than me (I'm 34) and they are both MVP's in 2010. To ignore them is foolish as they will either succeed or the Angels will not. Doesn't matter how good the offense is or how good the pitching staff is. Hamilton and Pujols have to at least replicate 2012 for this team to be successful. 

 

disagree.

 

Also, 2010 was four full seasons ago.  It doesn't really mean much in 2014, or even 2013 as we saw last year.   The only past stats/performance that have much relevance for a player are 3 seasons or less.

[arch stanton]

If David Friggin Ortiz can return from the dead and be effective then I don't know why anyone would think that Albert can't.

[YouthofToday]

You really can't compare runs scored from year to year. It is for more relevant to compare runs scored versus the AL average for that year. Run production has been decreasing since the 1990s.

RISP is not a reliably predictive stat IMO.

Bottom line is we need a lot of players to perform above what their trends based on age what expect (Hamilton and Albert Pujols). We need Freese to stay healthy and productive. We need our starters to stay healthy and productive.

This can be a division championship team. This could also be a 75 win team. Far more variance in outcomes than most teams.

I do like what Dipoto has done by and large given limited financial resources and the 29th best farm system or so in baseball.

ST can't come fast enough.

[KingJustinian]

Bottom line is we need a lot of players to perform above what their trends based on age what expect (Hamilton and Albert Pujols). We need Freese to stay healthy and productive. We need our starters to stay healthy and productive.

Last year Hamilton as Pujols were way below the trend based on age. Pujols hitting a 850-900 OPS and Hamilton about the same next year would not be above the trends for their age, but would be a huge improvement.

Edited January 31, 2014 by KingJustinian

[vlad27]

With the staff as it's currently constructed Trout must continue to be the best player in baseball and Albert and josh have to return to vintage form for us to really contend - no pressure guys .....

But you never know - things could work out I'm hoping they do

Edited January 31, 2014 by vlad27

[jshep]

Guessing I would be like the 15th person to point out that this is exactly what we said heading into last season too?