Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

Contender, or not?


floplag

Is this team in playoff contention  

111 members have voted

  1. 1. Is this team in the playoff mix

    • This team in the playoff mix in some form
      112
    • Are we pretty much already playing golf
      29


Recommended Posts

In the most non-scientific way possible, I have calculated as is the Angels will win between 87-91 games. Averaging it out, 89 wins. That's both a contender and a disappointment. They'll be in it until the very end but 89 wins likely results in a 3rd place finish in the Wild Card race.

89 wins with this starting staff I'd say is a successful year
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the most non-scientific way possible, I have calculated as is the Angels will win between 87-91 games. Averaging it out, 89 wins. That's both a contender and a disappointment. They'll be in it until the very end but 89 wins likely results in a 3rd place finish in the Wild Card race.

 

Clay Davenport has the Angels winning 84 games -- his system has all of one team winning more than 90 games -- Detroit.  http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml  If you look at his pre-season projections for 2013 he had us winning 91 games, the Giants winning 92 -- both teams failed to even go .500.  He explains how he goes about reaching his conclusions on the main page, but it seems pretty hit and miss from year to year.

 

Baseball has to be the hardest sport to try to predict.  One major injury or a Yasiel Puig promotion can impact a season in such a massive way.

Edited by Inside Pitch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The projections for last year are a perfect example of why the human element, luck, whatever you want to call it is and always will be a factor that cant be taken into account because it simply doesn't make sense at times.  There are always best and worst case scenarios, reality is usually somewhere in the middle and tends to average out to that taking into account age regression or player developments

 

Everyone had high hopes for us... even with the pitching staff we had, and everything went wrong. 

 

This is also precisely why i believe we are a lot closer than some others that seem to get hung up on the numbers... there are these wonderful things called anomalies... 2013 was that for this team in my opinion.  There is simply no reasonable explanation for why we were as bad as we were other than to say that in almost every case.. from the starting staff to pujols, to hamilton to almost everything not named Trout that played to the worst possible expectations.

 

This is not a 78 win club even with the pitching staff.  ive said it before, i still believe it.  If the team played to its potential outside of that staff last year we are still at least a 500 ballclub maybe 85 wins.  If the staff played to even the median expectations we would have won about 90 as most predicted.

 

The bottom line is that it didnt, but i see no reason why it couldn't easily return to those levels if thins average out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm with the "I just have a good feeling" group. Something feels right to me even though logic says I shouldn't be confident. I feel like the pitching is going to be better than expected. As long as the offense performs close to expectation I think we win 90+ games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you have to look at some of the other teams in the AL to get a feel for where the halos chances lie.

 

Legit shot at winning the division:

Boston

Tampa

Detroit

Texas

Oakland

 

Outside shot at winning the division but in the WC mix. 

NYY

Angels

KC

Cle

 

Outside shot at a WC spot

Bal

Sea

Tor

Min

 

No real chance

CWS

Hou

 

I think more has to go right then wrong for us to make it to the playoffs at this point, but I still look back at 2012.  That pen was awful and the SP was well below average yet the team won 89 games.  We'll see, but it's far from needing an act of God

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's possible due to the talent level.

Enough has to go right though.

No more bad hitting from Pujols/Hamilton, the young starting pitchers needing to take the next step like they do in Oakland,  

Calhoun building on his 2013 debut, Freese hitting like he did in 2011/2012, the catchers improving their CS%, the bullpen stabilizing, and health not playing a huge factor again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly, after the last few seasons, I don't know if I'm willing to say we're in the mix. I mean every team has a chance, but I'm not looking at us as a playoff contender until I see guys bounce back and play better baseball. 

 

Already looking for my golf shoes...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With regards to Doc's groupings, I would downgrade the Skanks from outside chance at AL East to outside chance at WC, and downgrade Sea, Tor, and Minn to no real chance.

 

NYY has huge IF holes and question marks after the first 2-3 rotation spots.   C.C. isn't getting any younger, Nova has had one good season, Kuroda is soon 40 and slumped badly the last 6 weeks of 2013, Tanaka is still somewhat of an unknown, and they no longer have Mo Rivera closing.

Toronto hasn't really improved themselves that much, and still has pitching question marks.

Minnesota is improved, but has a lot of ground to make up from a year ago.   

Seattle maybe should be somewhere between WC contender and no chance.   They are improved and have two stud young pitchers.   But my gut feeling says they need another year before becoming a WC contender.                                 

Edited by Angel Oracle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As the team stands today, I'd say the Angels are on the outside of the mix hoping to get in.  Their close, but not there yet.  Ask this again the week before the season starts and I'll have another answer for you.  By then, I expect the Angels to sign a couple arms and/or trade for a #3.

Edited by Jim B
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do we really think JD will let that $15 mil burn a hole in his pocket? We're getting at least one more starter and maybe a reliever.

 

 

Agreed.  Before the season starts I expect the Angels to either sign two SP free agents or trade Howie for a #3 and sign one SP free agent.

 

Jerry is just waiting to get the best price possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...