The Official 'TANAKA' Thread

[Chuck]

Garza's 2013 bested what we got from our third best pitcher in Vargas this past season. 

 

Garza has top of the rotation stuff and could post totals that a #2 would give you, but I think he's a solid #3. I guess it depends on what people think a #3 should post in terms of numbers. 

 

I've already moved on from Tanaka. I don't think the Angels are getting him. Garza is a solid option behind Weaver and Wilson and gives us four straight arms (if Santiago is our #4) that should post a sub-4.00 ERA and give us some QS's. Something this team was severely lacking this past season. 

[Scott34]

Garza's 2013 bested what we got from our third best pitcher in Vargas this past season. 

 

Garza has top of the rotation stuff and could post totals that a #2 would give you, but I think he's a solid #3. I guess it depends on what people think a #3 should post in terms of numbers. 

 

I've already moved on from Tanaka. I don't think the Angels are getting him. Garza is a solid option behind Weaver and Wilson and gives us four straight arms (if Santiago is our #4) that should post a sub-4.00 ERA and give us some QS's. Something this team was severely lacking this past season. 

 

Maybe.  If Garza can stay on the field.

 

I'd say his 2013 in the AL was very similar to Vargas.  Is Vargas worth 15M+ over 4-5 years?

[Docwaukee]

Garza's 2013 bested what we got from our third best pitcher in Vargas this past season. 

 

Garza has top of the rotation stuff and could post totals that a #2 would give you, but I think he's a solid #3. I guess it depends on what people think a #3 should post in terms of numbers. 

 

I've already moved on from Tanaka. I don't think the Angels are getting him. Garza is a solid option behind Weaver and Wilson and gives us four straight arms (if Santiago is our #4) that should post a sub-4.00 ERA and give us some QS's. Something this team was severely lacking this past season. 

I think there is a difference between saying that Garza would help the team in 2014 and saying that he's a good solution over the next four years.  Granted, if the price is right and he can be had for less than 60mil over that time AND we had no chance at Tanaka, then I think his services would be welcomed.  It's just that I still think he's gonna get a 5yr deal for about 80-90mil.  I would rather see the team go in a different direction if that's the case.  In a playoff bound rotation, I think Garza is a #4.  My biggest concern is that people still think they are going to get the Garza from 3 years ago.  I just don't see that.  The halos shouldn't be handing out contracts for players that help them for 1-2 years even though they are paying for four.  But truly, having him instead of Maholm, Capuano, or Hammels for 2014 would certainly make things more fun to watch. 

[Chuck]

Maybe.  If Garza can stay on the field.

 

I'd say his 2013 in the AL was very similar to Vargas.  Is Vargas worth 15M+ over 4-5 years?

 

Sample size Scott, plus he pitched in the awful summer heat in Texas down the stretch. His numbers in the AL East against good teams with the Rays were very good. His stuff plays out well in the AL. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

That number is cursed. Go with 7/125 or 127

pfft. It was a fine number...until someone, SOMEONE had to shake his paw...

[Season Over]

That number is cursed.  Go with 7/125 or 127

 

125 is what we gave Hamilton

 

127 it is

[Docwaukee]

Sample size Scott, plus he pitched in the awful summer heat in Texas down the stretch. His numbers in the AL East against good teams with the Rays were very good. His stuff plays out well in the AL. 

he got hammered on the road when he was with the Rangers (24er in 41ip over 6 starts).  He actually pitcher better at arlington.  His Rays numbers were at the peak of his career. 

[IowaAngels27]

Would love to get him, but he's no Weav in my mind.

[Brent Maguire]

Would love to get him, but he's no Weav in my mind.

He doesn't have to be as good as Weaver.

What he gives us is a potential #2/3 guy that is young. Having him, Skaggs, Richards and Santiago in their prime years would be very nice.

[Chuck]

he got hammered on the road when he was with the Rangers (24er in 41ip over 6 starts).  He actually pitcher better at arlington.  His Rays numbers were at the peak of his career. 

 

If there was a decline in velocity I could see cause for concern, but he hit just a bad stretch.

 

I like this one of him striking out Robinson Cano  http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=vtp_head_and_shoulders&content_id=30213099

 

Here's a game he pitched down the stretch on the road against a good hitting Royals team. 

 

http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=30827257&query=Matt%2BGarZA%2BrANGERS

 

Here's another one flashing his dominant stuff  http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=vtp_head_and_shoulders&content_id=30213099

 

There's plenty more from 2013, which could be classified as his worst season yet, but as you can see, his slider and fastball are still top shelf pitches. 

[NrM]

All I see on the front page is Tanaka topics. I counted 8 just now.

He's just one player, and there's probably like a 5% chance the angels actually sign him?

 

At this point, everytime I read his name, I want to throw up.

Maybe there should be an official Tanaka thread.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Poozy

[Brent Maguire]

Making another thread about it seems contradicting, no?

[NrM]

Making another thread about it seems contradicting, no?

 

Probably, but does the guy really deserve all this attention? 

[Brent Maguire]

Probably, but does the guy really deserve all this attention?

I agree with you that there should be just one big Tanaka thread but he is a potential final piece to this team being a serious threat to winning the division.

No other player on the market can help the Angels as much IMO. I think that's why many people are excited about the possibility of this happening.

[Blarg]

You got your wish. Condensed cream of Tanaka.

[cez]

Yeah, almost hard to believe people are talking a lot about a FA that everybody wants in the middle of the offseason when exactly nothing remarkable has happened for weeks.  

 

It would be much better to talk about what a great guy Trumbo is, why Shuck is a terrible 4th outfielder, Blanton, and Dipoto/Sosh psychological analysis. 

Edited December 27, 2013 by cezero

[NrM]

Yeah, almost hard to believe people are talking a lot about a FA that everybody wants in the middle of the offseason when exactly nothing remarkable has happened for weeks.  

 

It would be much better to talk about what a great guy Trumbo is, why Shuck is a terrible 4th outfielder, Blanton, and Dipoto/Sosh psychological analysis. 

I'm with you!

We should also change the name of Angelswin to Tanakawin until he signs

[Homebrewer]

Talk Tanaka on TanakaTalk.com

[nate]

Have we decided what Scioscia's nickname will be for him?  Tanakie?  Takie? Tankie? Masie? Jap?

[wopphil]

I also think that while Tanaka would be ideal, Garza might be a much more logical and realistic target.  I see Garza as a legitimate No. 3 (i.e., someone who can give you an ERA+ of 110-120), and I think he would instantly upgrade our rotation sufficiently to make us competitive in the AL West.  I think if we can sign Garza for something in the neighborhood of 4/64, that probably makes far more sense than throwing 150 mil at Tanaka.

[nate]

Too risky to give a pitcher with previous arm troubles a big contract IMO.

[wopphil]

Also, some of Garza's peripherals last year indicate that he probably was better than his raw stats suggest.  His K/9 was 7.9, which was better than his career rate of 7.6.  His BB/9 was 2.4, which was better than his career rate of 3.0.  His k/bb ratio of 3.24 was the best of any season in his career.  He was pitching like an ace in Chicago before he was traded to Texas. 

 

I don't know what went wrong in Texas, but his BABIP against was .316 - for his career it is .291.  So perhaps some of the ERA jump is attributable to bad luck.  He also gave up a lot of homeruns, and for his career he is somewhat homer prone, which ought to be a concern.  But compare him to Jered Weaver over the last three seasons:

 

Garza: 1.0 HR/9; 2.7 bb/9; 7.9 k/9; 2.9 k/bb, WHIP 1.238

 

Weaver: .9 HR/9; 2.1 bb/9; 7.1 k/9; 3.31 k/bb, WHIP 1.047

 

Those stats are pretty comparable.  The big difference is in their BABIP against - Garza's is .298 the last three years, while Weaver's is .253.  As a result, Garza has given up 8.4 hits/9, while Weaver has given up only 7.3 hits/9.  Some of that, I assume, has to be attributed to the parks they have played in.

 

So the question, to me, is really about health.  If the medicals check out and Garza is healthy, he would probably be a much better signing than Tanaka.  And if the price is right, the team could possibly still sign a guy like Maholm or Capuano, thereby providing some serious rotation depth.

Edited December 27, 2013 by wopphil

[Inside Pitch]

Sample size Scott, plus he pitched in the awful summer heat in Texas down the stretch. His numbers in the AL East against good teams with the Rays were very good. His stuff plays out well in the AL. 

 

 

Sample size?  His career 105 ERA+ in the AL during his prime says it all -- thats his ENTIRE time in the AL..  

 

But, If you want to discount his pitching in Texas as the root of his struggles last year then you need to do the same and look at his numbers AWAY from TB during his Rays years.  

 

2008 - 4.58  

2009 - 4.85.  

2010 - 4.27.  

 

Stop overrating Garza.  The guy's entire career is built on his having played in severe pitcher's parks and in front of good defenses.  Projecting him to do well based on what he did 4-6 years ago is ridiculous.  Garza isn't awful, he's just much more of a mirage than people realize and his numbers in Texas last year weren't really all that far off his neutral park numbers during his Rays years.

 

I fully agree with you that Tanaka is highly unlikely and that Garza might be the best option after him, but it's a rather steep dropoff.  IMHO if Garza's the second best option then the Angels are better off passing.  Ultimately it comes down to what the market will peg Garza at, but IMO he's likely going to be the biggest overpay on a pitcher this offseason.

 

He's good, just nothing as good as his ERA in TB made him seem.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

Also, some of Garza's peripherals last year indicate that he probably was better than his raw stats suggest.  His K/9 was 7.9, which was better than his career rate of 7.6.  His BB/9 was 2.4, which was better than his career rate of 3.0.  His k/bb ratio of 3.24 was the best of any season in his career.  He was pitching like an ace in Chicago before he was traded to Texas. 

 

I don't know what went wrong in Texas, but his BABIP against was .316 - for his career it is .291.  So perhaps some of the ERA jump is attributable to bad luck.  He also gave up a lot of homeruns, and for his career he is somewhat homer prone, which ought to be a concern.  But compare him to Jered Weaver over the last three seasons:

 

Garza: 1.0 HR/9; 2.7 bb/9; 7.9 k/9; 2.9 k/bb, WHIP 1.238

 

Weaver: .9 HR/9; 2.1 bb/9; 7.1 k/9; 3.31 k/bb, WHIP 1.047

 

Those stats are pretty comparable.  The big difference is in their BABIP against - Garza's is .298 the last three years, while Weaver's is .253.  As a result, Garza has given up 8.4 hits/9, while Weaver has given up only 7.3 hits/9.  Some of that, I assume, has to be attributed to the parks they have played in.

 

So the question, to me, is really about health.  If the medicals check out and Garza is healthy, he would probably be a much better signing than Tanaka.  And if the price is right, the team could possibly still sign a guy like Maholm or Capuano, thereby providing some serious rotation depth.

 

Blanton's periphs always suggested he should be better than he was, too.   And you can't really compare two pitchers across leagues and say they are comparable.   Garza's career peripherals are in line with Phil Hughes who signed for 3 years and 24 mil -- difference is Hughes had to pitch in a launching pad.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Ohtaniland]

Tanaka threads > Garza threads.

Tanaka has more @ngelswin love than Garza.