Tanaka to be posted soon by Rakuten

[Hubs]

As long as they stay under 20M AAV, they can get him and not go over the Tax. I think they have around $22-23M in AAV Payroll room. I personally think he'll get right around that number. 6@ 19AAV = 114 and adding the $20M that's the most he'll get. I can see the total investment being 20M more than the overall investments for Darvish and Matsuzaka, but not significantly more.

 

 

I believe Arte will make a legit offer for this guy. He obviously does not WANT to go over the tax (who wants to pay a tax?) but I don't doubt that he will for the right player.

The only thing that will prevent Tanaka from being an Angel is Tanaka himself. I don't think money will be the issue. I could be wrong, but it's just the feeling I get.

[GregAlso]

@JonHeymanCBS: #yanks planning to try for tanaka. it'll be tight squeeze to fit him under $189M threshhold. @JeffPassan: NYY is $178M now

@JonHeymanCBS: that $178M current yankees payroll, via @JeffPassan , does not include the 3B who's in limbo

FYI

[Hubs]

The teams I think will be seriously involved include a whole lot of different teams. As the bidding process has changed, it's tough to figure out who is in and who is out. All teams would love a 25 year old Ace. But certain teams need him more than others. Certain teams have better resources than others and finally certain teams have better appeal than others.

 

Here's my thoughts on the league.

 

Yankees are thought of to be the favorites, but they also have a stated financial goal to get under the CBT. Without voiding A-Rod, it's not going to happen.

Red Sox have the financial resources, but they were burned by Matsuzaka and have a deep pitching staff. Some appeal. Need is not pressing.

The Blue Jays aren't a good fit. Probably have the resources and need, but appeal lacks.

The Rays don't have the capital.

The Orioles are a dark horse.

 

The Indians don't have the financial resources.

Neither do the Twins.

Or the Royals.

The Tigers don't have the need. But they could go for him I suppose.

The White Sox are another dark horse. They have the resources, and could bid. They don't have a huge pitching need though.

 

The Rangers have Darvish. They could bid, but need offense more than pitching.

The A's don't have the resources or the need. 

The Mariners don't have the need, but they have the appeal and the resources. They're in.

The Angels have the need, the appeal, the resources. They have to be considered a favorite.

Astros don't have the appeal. They do have the resources.

 

In the NL.

 

Mets have the resources and are a candidate, but they don't have a good team so they lack appeal. They may or may not need pitching.

Nationals have the resources but not the need. East coast is a presumptive negative appeal.

Braves have the need but lack appeal and resources.

Phillies have the need, resources but presumably don't appeal as much as West Coast Teams.

Marlins are out.

 

Reds don't have the need or resources or appeal.

Pirates don't have the resources or need or appeal.

Cardinals have resources but no need. Have some appeal.

Cubs have resources, need, but in the appeal department, the team is lacking recent success.

Brewers have need, questionable resources, and no appeal.

 

Giants don't have need, and are close to their budget. They do have a lot of appeal. They could be in.

D'Backs don't have a need, but do want a frontline starter. They have the resources. They have appeal as a young club near the West Coast.

Padres are out. Not their type of move. Questionable resources, some appeal. Need is questionable as well.

Dodgers certainly have the resources, but do they have the need? They have Greinke and Kershaw, Ryu and Haren, Billingsley and Beckett. Plus a whole lot in the prospect department. I'd consider them in, but are they really a favorite?

And the Rockies are probably out. Questionable appeal, resources, do have the need.

[Hubs]

So my favorites:

 

Angels, D'Backs, Mariners. 

 

 

Teams with a question mark but who are considered favorites by the media:

 

Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs.

 

Less appealing teams who could bid:

 

Phillies, Nationals, Mets, 

 

Darkhorse candidates:

 

Orioles, White Sox, Giants

[gotbeer]

Just some comments Hubs.  I think you are underestimating the financial resources of a lot of teams.  Remember this is the first year of the influx of $25 million from the national tv deal.  Previous year was $25, now it's north of $50 million.  

 

As for specific teams.  Padres.  Remember, they are the one's that got Irabu.  He just did them a favor and didn't want to sign there so was traded to the Yankees.  

[seenoevil]

Tanaka-mania

[Halofan]

A big league general manager who doesn't plan on pursuing Masahiro Tanaka is positive that the Japanese free agent pitcher will get more than $100 million.

"I don't think there's any doubt," the GM told CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. Tanaka's situation is almost resolved, as a new posting system has been accepted and Tanaka himself has told the Rakuten Eagles that he'd like to play in America next season. The new system features a $20 million maximum bid, which perturbs the Eagles, who voted against the legislation. It wouldn't be a surprise if half of MLB ponied up the $20 million to reserve a date with Tanaka's agent.

[Halos of Anaheim]

I can see him getting a CJ contract + the 20m posting fee. 5 years/85m, overall 5 yrs/105m contract.

[Splint7438]

Some of us know a great sushi place in Chino Hills of all places.

[seenoevil]

Ill get drunk with saporo beer if the Angels sign Tanaka

[Angel Oracle]

If we don't get Tanaka, I think Wicked was on to something.    Get Tatanka in here!   He's only like, early 50s. 

Edited December 17, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Ender]

I fully expect the Mariners to go hard on Tanaka. Everyone knows the M's love their Japanese players.

[GregAlso]

I can see him getting a CJ contract + the 20m posting fee. 5 years/85m, overall 5 yrs/105m contract.

The north of $100 million does not include his posting fee. 5 years $100 million gets you dinner with his agent. 6 years $120 million makes you a serious bidder. I think, anyone who goes 7 years $135+ million has him. I don't know if he goes for 7 years but with all the competition and the fact that a 25 year old ace NEVER hits free agency he will go for a lot of cash!

[GoodTimesGoneBad]

Call me crazy but I'll wager he doesn't get north of 100m, not including the posting fee.

[Sciosciapath]

I think Yankees will just say screw that 188M number and go over.

 

If Arod gets suspended doesn't their payroll go down drastically?

[GregAlso]

I think Yankees will just say screw that 188M number and go over.

If Arod gets suspended doesn't their payroll go down drastically?

.

The $178 million assumes ARod is suspended. They spent a lot of money this offseason and already had a lot on the books.

[GregAlso]

Call me crazy but I'll wager he doesn't get north of 100m, not including the posting fee.

Crazy

[bloodbrother]

And here come the Rangers

 

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 5m

Rangers doing significant background work on Masahiro Tanaka. Have room for one significant expenditure. May slow movement on Shin-Soo Choo.

[Quinlanforthewin]

If the Rangers sign Tanaka we're competing for the wild card at best.  Their team would be insane.  

[Quinlanforthewin]

Tanaka and Darvish? No thanks.  And then you have to face the M's and A's rotation.  I'd turn my attention to competing with the Astros for fourth and start the managerial search. 

[Inside Pitch]

And here come the Rangers

 

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 5m

Rangers doing significant background work on Masahiro Tanaka. Have room for one significant expenditure. May slow movement on Shin-Soo Choo.

 

 

Not shocking...   

[Brent Maguire]

The Rangers getting Tanaka would be a huge blow. My guess is if the Rangers don't get him but sign someone like Choo, then Arte is going to put a very serious bid in for Tanaka to counter the Rangers.

And I would be fine with it. Getting a potential #2 at age 25 would be huge for this team.

[Sciosciapath]

Choo and/or Tanaka?

 

Rangers got some serious yellow fever.

[Docwaukee]

I think the halos have every intention of making a very hard run at Tanaka.  If they didn't, I think they would have signed another pitcher by now.  Granted, the remaining FA pitchers could be waiting as well, but usually the halos go hard after what they want and if they were set on Garza, I think they'd have signed him by now. 

[Splint7438]

I think 5/75 with an opt out after year three would be best. Maybe a club option after year two. That way there is some protection for both sides. 20 million annually is way too big a risk for a kid that has never thrown in the majors. Anything over four years guaranteed is risky as well. There a lot of ways to protect both sides with mutual options, opt outs and varying lengths on a contract.