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Stephen Drew vs. Matt Garza


Dochalo

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In thinking about our options relative to improving our SP and the DH spot, one could make a case that we are better off trading Aybar for pitching and signing Stephen Drew.

 

Here is the math:

 

Drew is probably equivalent to or perhaps provides slightly more value than Aybar.  He's a very good defender with good pop who has a solid obp.  He'll be just 31 to start the season   Aybar will be 30.

 

It appears that Drew is going to get 3/40 or maybe 4/50. 

 

Let's say Garza will cost you 4/70 or 5/80.

 

Obviously, it depends what you can get for Aybar, but it would make sesne that you could get a player similar to what Garza is going to be over the next 4-5 years yet younger and cheaper with potentially more upside. 

 

12.5mil for Drew minus 8.5 from trading Aybar plus league min for who Aybar gets you in return adds about 4.5 mil in payroll. Probably a shade more than what Ibanez is going to cost. 

 

Leaving you about 15mil to add a hitter or even another pitcher to further improve SP depth. 

 

To clear more space, you could also move Ianetta for some minor league depth or a pen arm although this would weaken the offense a bit.  But that would give you 20mil to spend. 

 

That could bring Choo into the mix or you could then trade Howie for a decent DH, Pitching prospect etc. 

 

The one downside of signing Drew is that he's tied to a pick which the halos have indicated they would avoid, but I have to think that with what Aybar can bring you in trade is probably a bit better for the long term health of the team than signing Garza. 

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Not a bad option. If Aybar can bring back a legitimate prospect, that may just end up being more valuable than having that draft pick.

I would assume the Mets would be very intersted and I can see a scenario where the Dodgers move Hanley back to 3rd to open up room to get Aybar. If Uribe doesn't end up signing with them, they'll have a pretty big hole at 3rd/SS.

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Not a bad option. If Aybar can bring back a legitimate prospect, that may just end up being more valuable than having that draft pick.

I would assume the Mets would be very intersted and I can see a scenario where the Dodgers move Hanley back to 3rd to open up room to get Aybar. If Uribe doesn't end up signing with them, they'll have a pretty big hole at 3rd/SS.

 

They already re-signed Uribe.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/dodgers-to-re-sign-juan-uribe.html

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I don't think Aybar is going to get you much in the way of SP.

I felt the same way about Trumbo.  If you could get a similar package or perhaps even slightly less.  Like a Skaggs type plus a lesser prospect, wouldn't that help the team long term? 

 

Like Montero and Victor Black?

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I guess the point is that for about 4-5mil per year for the next 4 years and a surrendered pick, you probably get a guy that is a very solid prospect who is near major league ready and maybe an additional player to offset the draft pick.

I like this point and rationale.

I think too many people here over value a draft pick and don't consider it an unknown commodity while expecting it to flourish. Baseball draft picks probably have the worst success ratio among pro sports or popular sports, but you essentially propose not only a more known commodity, but also have expedited the process with one that is closer to major league ready than the expedition a new draft pick would deal with.

I think it makes a lot of sense in many facets.

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I just don't think Aybar can get a whole lot back. If he can, it's not a bad idea, but unlike Trumbo who, despite arguments of his overall worth, had some "sexy" stats.

The other thing sexy about Aybar is, of course, his face.

 

I generally agree with this, too. But the variable is what another team values Aybar as or if he is an upgrade. I don't think too highly of Aybar. I'm not a stat geek, but it seems his D has mildly declined, we know about the base running lapses, and he isn't a solid bat....although I think he is a good 9 hole. With his age and production, I don't know if there is value outside his contract seems to be in line with what's expected of him.

 

If someone thinks they are a shortstop away, he can maybe surprise us like Trumbo did.

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Just can't do it. Too high of a pick. And now that Dipoto and Scioscia finally seem to be on the same page, we may not have a pick this high again. (or low of a pick, however you want to look at it).

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks

 

check out Tier 4. 

 

i'll have to do some math.

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Sacrificing a 1st round pick is an interesting discussion.  Wilson has only had one 1st round pick as scouting director, and he chose Cron at 17th overall. We just flipped a similar player for two young pitchers. Really comes down to your faith in the guys making the draft selections.

 

Also, doesn't losing our 1st round pick mean we'll have less draft money to work with? 

Edited by Shane
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so let's do a 4 year look...

 

let's say Aybar and drew offset in terms of WAR but Drew costs 5mil more per or 20mil total

let's say Garza would cost about 4/70 and give you 10 WAR

let's say if you traded Aybar, you'd get a major league ready club controlled #4 that would give you about 8 WAR and a decent minor league prospect

 

by Tier 4 above, a 8-15 pick averages about 1 WAR per year and cost you about 2mil per year to get them ready (marginal cost + signing bonus)

the prospect you get for Aybar would cost less than that, but is likely to be worth less yet they'd potentially be ready sooner and provide value to the team in the next four years.  Even if you didn't get the prospect for Aybar

 

Aybar + Garza + pick

Cost - about 100mil

Value in the next 4 years - about 90-100mil (about 18-20 WAR)

 

Drew + traded for SP

Cost - about 65mil

Value in the next 4 years - about 14-18 WAR or 70-90mil

 

The real upgrade comes with what you can do on offense with the freed up cash unless we think Cron is going to take the DH spot next year or even sometime this year. 

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I've been on the low value farm and draft pick kick since the proposed Santana, Wood, and someone else for Manny many years back. It seemed Wood was the hold up, but it was essentially a trade of potential for a known all-star commodity. It never made sense to me to have someone with a solid one year in AA to hold up a future hall of famer.

 

It just doesn't make sense to me.

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Sacrificing a 1st round pick is an interesting discussion.  Wilson has only had one 1st round pick as scouting director, and he chose Cron at 17th overall. We just flipped a similar player for two young pitchers. Really comes down to your faith in the guys making the draft selections.

 

Also, doesn't losing our 1st round pick mean we'll have less draft money to work with? 

Very true.  Either you trust the guys building your system or you don't.  That said, you've got to play the odds.  Bird in the hand and all that.  I'm not normally one to support giving up a pick, but to me, this gives us a nice option for keeping the current team as good as it can be and still taking care of the very near future. 

 

The other option is to just trade Aybar for that arm and not sign Drew and give the job to a util guy. 

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Doc, have to hand it to you for some original thinking. I will have to think about this some more. Off the top of my head, I'm not sure what Akbar can net us. And, I really think the whole hold up is on whether or not Tanaka gets posted. Once that is decided and we know more we stand in terms of signing him, decisions like this become more or less palatable.

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I have no issue trading Aybar, especially for mlb-ready or near-ready pitching prospects.  If this move results in the signing of Choo, I think you could get away with allowing Romine to man short and save additional money.  The Halo's would field a lineup like:  Choo, Calhoun, Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Kendrick, Freese, Conger and Romine.

The prospects may have long-term upside and benefit but I'm not sure we could get someone that is a current #3, which I don't have a huge issue with.  But we may want to consider signing someone like Johan Santana if he is healthy, or Tsuyoshi Wada.

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FWIW, Steamer and Oliver projections have Aybar as a 2.6 WAR player next year. If a team is high on Aybar and you can steal a top 5 prospect from them and possibly more, I think you have to pull the trigger. If the Mets offered Montero and Tejeda or someone like Cechinni, you pull the trigger. 

 

Romine's production wouldn't be too far off from what Aybar did last year. Aybar was worth 1.6 WAR last year. Romine, in 123 PA, was worth 0.4. If you give Romine 500 PA, I don't think it's too far fetched to say Romine would put up 1.6 WAR considering how great his defense is. 

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I like your thought process, but the 2014 draft is supposed to loaded with good young talent. Pickup two college arms with their 1st and 2nd round picks, have Green and Sappington continue to develop, and build up the farm system with tons of pitching. Imagine if the Angels were able to pull a 2009 type of draft when they drafted Trout, Skaggs, Corbin, Richards, and Grichuk, I miss seeing young talent contribute on the major league team in big ways like Trout, Weaver, Howie, Calhoun, Trumbo, Bourjos, etc.

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