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Tanaka, Garza, or Bust


Angelsjunky

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A lot has been said about the Angels needing another #2-3 type pitcher, that with Richards, Skaggs and Santiago they have three pitchers who are all somewhere in the #3-5 range, and to supplant one a new pitcher has to be better - a #2-3. After those three you have Blanton and Shoemaker, both of whom could be start if need be.

 

Given that Howie Kendrick or Erick Aybar are unlikely to bring in that caliber of pitcher, it seems likely that the Angels are quite interested in Tanaka and Garza. Couple that with the fact the only other remaining free agent starters that are #3 caliber or better - namely Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana - are both questionable and will require a lost draft pick. The rest of the gang, from Arroyo to Maholm to Marcum, are #4-5 types and don't really add anything beyond depth.

 

So I think that interest in Tanaka and Garza is stronger than we realize. I see Dipoto having three options:

 

*Go hard after Tanaka or Garza

*Trade Kendrick or Aybar

*Sign a #4-5 type to a 1-2 year contract

 

I don't see a lot of point in the third option for reasons discussed above - I don't think they add much beyond what Richards, Skaggs, or Santiago offer. Arroyo or Burnett could be better, but both are old and Burnett has said he'll only pitch for the Pirates. Anyhow, after the Blanton debacle I just don't see Dipoto wanting to spend/waste more money on a mediocrity. Lesson learned.

 

Kendrick and Aybar might be worth more to the team than via trade. I just don't see teams clambering over themselves for either player, at least not for the value they bring to the team.

 

So it really comes down to Garza and Tanaka. I see Jerry and Arte wanting to solidify the Angels chances of legit contention next year, so don't be surprised if the wallet opens wide.

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We need to add a solid #2 caliber pitcher IMO.  Wilson had a nice season last year after a rough start, and Weaver didn't really show Ace-caliber stuff.

 

Agreed, I think they need another front line starter.  I see Weaver as sort of a 2nd tier ace or 1 slash 2 guy, so without a true ace ace, the next best thing is a trio of 1 slash 2 guys.  

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I see Weaver as a number "1.5" and Wilson as a "2.5," with the net result being akin to having two #2 starters. Richards, Skaggs, and Santiago are all anything from #3s to #5s. If all three were closer to #3s, then the rotation would be fine as is. But if they're all closer to #5s we're in trouble. I don't think Dipoto wants to risk it.

 

Tanaka and Garza offer two different forms of risk. Garza is a true #3, but has missed time in each of the last two seasons. Tanaka seems like anything from a #2 to a #4 with the potential to even be a #1 or 1.5 ala Yu Darvish. But he's a relative unknown.

 

All things being equal I'd prefer Tanaka, but if Garza will take a four-year deal, he'd be really tempting.

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They shouldn't be focused on anything now, other than a #3 pitcher and a DH. 

Only Garza and Tanaka fit the #3 criteria, and wouldn't cost a 1st round pick. 

 

 

There is no need to trade Kendrick, yet.    Acquiring Santiago and Skaggs took care of that. 

Remember that even Kendrick's OPS was higher than Trumbo's in 2013 by some 25 pts.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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I see Weaver as a number "1.5" and Wilson as a "2.5," with the net result being akin to having two #2 starters. Richards, Skaggs, and Santiago are all anything from #3s to #5s. If all three were closer to #3s, then the rotation would be fine as is. But if they're all closer to #5s we're in trouble. I don't think Dipoto wants to risk it.

Tanaka and Garza offer two different forms of risk. Garza is a true #3, but has missed time in each of the last two seasons. Tanaka seems like anything from a #2 to a #4 with the potential to even be a #1 or 1.5 ala Yu Darvish. But he's a relative unknown.

All things being equal I'd prefer Tanaka, but if Garza will take a four-year deal, he'd be really tempting.

Weaver had the injury last year but still pitched to a #1.5 type year. If you factor in his previous several years I would say he is still a solid #1. The velocity decline is worrisome but he has never relied on velocity to get batters out.

Wilson had a #2 type season last year and he was the ace on a World Series team not that long ago. Id argue he is still a solid #2.

That being said, I still support getting tanaka or garza as long as it doesn't impact future budgets too much (i.e. Extending Trout). If the FO thinks they will, then I'd be all for getting a couple of high risk high reward types on short deals and expect one of them to pan out

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I see Weaver as a number "1.5" and Wilson as a "2.5," with the net result being akin to having two #2 starters. Richards, Skaggs, and Santiago are all anything from #3s to #5s. If all three were closer to #3s, then the rotation would be fine as is. But if they're all closer to #5s we're in trouble. I don't think Dipoto wants to risk it.

 

Tanaka and Garza offer two different forms of risk. Garza is a true #3, but has missed time in each of the last two seasons. Tanaka seems like anything from a #2 to a #4 with the potential to even be a #1 or 1.5 ala Yu Darvish. But he's a relative unknown.

 

All things being equal I'd prefer Tanaka, but if Garza will take a four-year deal, he'd be really tempting.

 

Also if you factor in the top-of-the-order injuries the Angels have had the last couple of seasons, it makes sense to bolster the top of the order.

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I see Weaver as a number "1.5" and Wilson as a "2.5," with the net result being akin to having two #2 starters. Richards, Skaggs, and Santiago are all anything from #3s to #5s. If all three were closer to #3s, then the rotation would be fine as is. But if they're all closer to #5s we're in trouble. I don't think Dipoto wants to risk it.

 

Tanaka and Garza offer two different forms of risk. Garza is a true #3, but has missed time in each of the last two seasons. Tanaka seems like anything from a #2 to a #4 with the potential to even be a #1 or 1.5 ala Yu Darvish. But he's a relative unknown.

 

All things being equal I'd prefer Tanaka, but if Garza will take a four-year deal, he'd be really tempting.

 

Likewise I would prefer they chase Tanaka as my biggest concern with Garza is that he is a legit injury risk.  I keep reading people say how Garza is a proven number 3 Vs, the inconsistent Ervin Santana and yet I can't seem to ignore these sets of numbers

 

08-13 (6 seasons)

MG - 1049 IP,  1.243 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 7.7 K/9 - 3.76 ERA

ES -  1199 IP,  1.244 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 K/9 - 3.93 ERA

 

Those numbers are actually kinder to Garza than a more recent/shorter comparison as it includes the only two seasons he's topped 185 innings -- and it's the IP totals that give me reason to think twice.  With Garza there is greater concern that he may only be able to give you 150-160 innings, in fact he's only averaged 165 innings over the last four seasons Vs Santana's 210.   Say what you will about Ervin's bad season HR happy 2012, with Garza, you would have had to fill those 180 extra innings that Santana pitched.  Sorry, but IMO a true number three has to be a surer bet to get you 200 IP than he will 150.

 

This isn't to say that Ervin should be an option -- the draft consideration is reason enough to look at the other option's but Garza for all his ability is at best a number 4 type pitcher in terms of production when you consider his health.  I don't even have an issue with going with a higher AAV, but I think any deal over 3 years is likely to blow up in the Angels faces.

 

It will be curious to see how much risk the Angels are willing to take in order to "win now".

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Likewise I would prefer they chase Tanaka as my biggest concern with Garza is that he is a legit injury risk.  I keep reading people say how Garza is a proven number 3 Vs, the inconsistent Ervin Santana and yet I can't seem to ignore these sets of numbers

 

 

Well, that is BS because Ervin is a proven #3 as well.

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From Alden Gonzalez

* Some additional minutia on the Angels’ situation at the moment: Matt Garza is still “the guy they really want” a source said Friday, but the perception is that they won’t go above a four-year contract.

 

Good. 4/60 tops. If that's not enough, move on.

 

Garza would be a nice addition, but he's hardly a difference-maker. 

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