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IGNORED

Dear Jerry, Hire this guy....


Inside Pitch

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The problem, in my opinion, with this kind of statistical analysis is that it doesn't account for the impact one of those "outlier" seasons, like Sexson's 50-homer campaign, can have on the player's team. All it takes is one season like that to potentially lift a team to the promised land. If that happens, does anybody really care if the player doesn't sustain it for a dozen more years?

 

I'm not saying ignore the stats; I'm saying there's a point where the statistical analysis goes so deep it doesn't even really have any value.

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The problem, in my opinion, with this kind of statistical analysis is that it doesn't account for the impact one of those "outlier" seasons, like Sexson's 50-homer campaign, can have on the player's team. All it takes is one season like that to potentially lift a team to the promised land. If that happens, does anybody really care if the player doesn't sustain it for a dozen more years?

 

I'm not saying ignore the stats; I'm saying there's a point where the statistical analysis goes so deep it doesn't even really have any value.

 

NOTHING "accounts" for those types of seasons.   But this sort of analysis lets you better identify a guy who COULD have a Sexson like season.

 

The beauty of that article is in how simple it's findings are.  He's not trying to bend anything to paint a picture -- he's merely simplifying the data.  Blengino has always been great at doing that sort of thing.  He's not Bill James trying to invent a statistic like Win Shares, he's just looking for guys who are doing certain things that could lead to success.

 

I really would be stoked if the Halos hired him.

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This article pretty much backs up how I feel about Trumbo. He knocks the ball hard and has some upside but he's not one of the top tier offensive players. Chase Ballpark is a good fit for his power so he'll be better off there.

 

Trading him for Skaggs and Santiago was a great move by Jerry.

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The problem, in my opinion, with this kind of statistical analysis is that it doesn't account for the impact one of those "outlier" seasons, like Sexson's 50-homer campaign, can have on the player's team. All it takes is one season like that to potentially lift a team to the promised land. If that happens, does anybody really care if the player doesn't sustain it for a dozen more years?

 

I'm not saying ignore the stats; I'm saying there's a point where the statistical analysis goes so deep it doesn't even really have any value.

 

The problem is that it is impossible to predict when that "outlier" season is going to occur making it a huge, high risk gamble to hold on to a Trumbo hoping he will have season for the ages. 

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The problem, in my opinion, with this kind of statistical analysis is that it doesn't account for the impact one of those "outlier" seasons, like Sexson's 50-homer campaign, can have on the player's team. All it takes is one season like that to potentially lift a team to the promised land. If that happens, does anybody really care if the player doesn't sustain it for a dozen more years?

 

I'm not saying ignore the stats; I'm saying there's a point where the statistical analysis goes so deep it doesn't even really have any value.

 

We've gotten that outlier season from Trout the last 2 years and it didn't lift the team to the playoffs. You still need the supporting cast around guys like that. That's the real issue here. You are spending resources (money, roster spots, outs) that could be going to players who are more productive 5/6 seasons while waiting on that breakout season.

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We've gotten that outlier season from Trout the last 2 years and it didn't lift the team to the playoffs. You still need the supporting cast around guys like that. That's the real issue here. You are spending resources (money, roster spots, outs) that could be going to players who are more productive 5/6 seasons while waiting on that breakout season.

 

Seriously.  This isn't the NBA where Trumbo could have a Lebron-like season and carry a team to the playoffs.  Too many combinations of things have to go right in baseball for a team to have a great year.

 

Trout has been 4-5x more valuable than Trumbo for the past two years, and we still weren't even close to clinching a spot in the postseason.  I'd say Trumbo's peak year could possibly be one season as a 3.5 or 4 WAR guy, and that's being generously optimistic given his weaknesses as a player.  More likely he'll continue to be a 2 WAR player, which is great at league minimum but not anything special or worth holding on to when you can get SP with some upside.

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You can't count on that outlier season to occur in any one year. Maybe there's like a 5% chance it will be any given year. Is this something that a team should pin its hopes on?

 

Look at that outlier year that Davis had this year. Did it do the Orioles any good?

 

Anyway, the comment by "Jack Z" was pretty hilarious.

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The article ends with stating Trumbo was lesser in value than the assets given for him. Seem Dipoto doesn't need a guy that helped the Mariner be the team they have been the last four seasons.

 

 

Yes, because the guy that was chiefly responsible for turning their farm system around wouldn't be useful here at all.  

 

Run Forest!

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Turn it around? Just what has changed for the Mariners other than the Astros stole their position of AL West Last Place Champions? They have invested a ton in free agents because their minor leagues is not producing players that change their win/loss totals.

Now this guy is writing for Fangraphs from his home in Wisconsin, he is not evaen at the winter meetings. Add to this he flamed out when released by the Mariners with his insider gossip burning every bridge along the way , yeah a real team player the Angels front office needs.

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The insight in the article was the thought processes taken in order to evaluate -- not the outcome.   Mark Trumbo isn't hard to figure out, pointing out that before he's even taken a swing 40% of his at bats are already gone is a POV most here don't take into consideration.

 

Anyone that read his evaluations in the Benson Future Stars books knows he was eons ahead of the curve when it came to mxing tools with statistical analysis.

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Turn it around? Just what has changed for the Mariners other than the Astros stole their position of AL West Last Place Champions? They have invested a ton in free agents because their minor leagues is not producing players that change their win/loss totals.

Now this guy is writing for Fangraphs from his home in Wisconsin, he is not evaen at the winter meetings. Add to this he flamed out when released by the Mariners with his insider gossip burning every bridge along the way , yeah a real team player the Angels front office needs.

 

 

 

Yes, yes.  You're absolutely right,.  The Mariners don't have more young talent coming than anyone else in the division.   They don't have a vibrant farm system.  And yes, absolutely, what the Angels need are more team players and less people with a clue on how to find and evaluate talent.

 

You Sir, are are a beacon of light in these dark dark times...

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Yes, yes.  You're absolutely right,.  The Mariners don't have more young talent than anyone else in the division.   They don't have a vibrant farm system.  And yes, absolutely, what the Angels need are more team players and less people with a clue on how to find and evaluate talent.

 

You Sir, are are a beacon of light in these dark dark times...

 

The Mariners have only 2 winning seasons in the last 10 years. Only 3 times not last in their division, 2013 was because of the Astros. They have had top draft picks non stop and their farm system is ranked 13th, or about middle of the pack. That is based on how many top twenty prospects they have but three are already have been called to the parent club so their ranking should be lower since those guys are no longer prospects.

 

But the key here is no change has taken place for the Mariners on the parent club. They have gone through three managers and still compile the same 60-70 win seasons. And that is directly attributed to how they evaluate talent they trade and acquire and that is what Blengino was responsible for, didn't accomplish with any success, was fired and then burned the Mariners front office as a response.

 

I would not hire a guy that so easily shit on the organization that made his house payment for so many years. He could have quietly left at any time and found work elsewhere. Instead he relayed information to the press about what happens in the board rooms and that is not for public disclosure. He is no one I could trust.

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The Mariners have only 2 winning seasons in the last 10 years. Only 3 times not last in their division, 2013 was because of the Astros. They have had top draft picks non stop and their farm system is ranked 13th, or about middle of the pack. That is based on how many top twenty prospects they have but three are already have been called to the parent club so their ranking should be lower since those guys are no longer prospects.

 

But the key here is no change has taken place for the Mariners on the parent club. They have gone through three managers and still compile the same 60-70 win seasons. And that is directly attributed to how they evaluate talent they trade and acquire and that is what Blengino was responsible for, didn't accomplish with any success, was fired and then burned the Mariners front office as a response.

 

I would not hire a guy that so easily shit on the organization that made his house payment for so many years. He could have quietly left at any time and found work elsewhere. Instead he relayed information to the press about what happens in the board rooms and that is not for public disclosure. He is no one I could trust.

 

Your complete inability to ever actually understand what you are responding to is really amazing.    I swear, I could say the sky is blue and you'd respond with some some vapid comment about how the ocean is wet.  The Mariners' W/L record has NO BEARING on the amount of talent that's been added to their farm system since Blengino joined them -- even less their W/L record before he was even there.  

I'm sure in your world of HRs and RBI, the W/L record is all that matters, but a farm system takes time to develop and if you think that Dipoto came into a bad situation then you would be sickened at what Blengino came into in Seattle.   Much like Stoneman, he had to take over a farm system bled dry by a guy named Bill Bavasi.   Bavasi in his infinity wisdom did things like trade Adrusbal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo for the DH platoon of Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez in two separate deals.  Yes, really.

 

In your rush to not bother to understand what you were responding to you glossed over the reality that the Mariners losses have more to do with mistakes made by others than anything Blengino has done with the scouting -- which is where he could be of help with our system.

 

Last year alone the Mariners graduated Nick Franklin http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=frankl001nic and Brad Miller http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=miller005bra.  Mike Zunino is widely regarded as one of the finest catching prospects in the game.  Kyle Seager, posted an 118 OPS last year in his second full season.  Walker, Paxton, Hultzen, are all considered top of the rotation arms.  The bulk of his work has yet to reach the majors, but he's set the Mariners up nicely providing the GM doesn't muck it up.  

 

So, in conclusion.  Yes, you're absolutely right.   Tony Blengino is a rat-fink know nothing.   The Ms should totally go get more HR hitters, it's worked really well for us the last few years.

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IP, I stand still on I would never hire this guy for what he did after being released. You can argue farm team growth till your stats pour out your ears but Tony Blengino is an untrustworthy guy. He may get back into baseball but the next opportunity is through a side but not front door and he will have to keep his trap shut outside of the offices if he ever expects his name on a door.

 

Meanwhile he can make pizzas on Fangraphs for your entertainment.

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