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If Trumbo is traded for SP, C.J. Cron a possible replacement


Chuck

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Why were his HR numbers down? He was playing half his games in the most difficult hitting environment in minor league baseball and the other half in a collection of neutral and pitching friendly parks. 

 

Grichuk (22 HR) and Lindsey (17 HR) both hit more homers than Cron (14 HR) did.

Both hit more homers and hit for more power in AA than they did at A+.

Both are younger than Cron.

 

You're right about one thing...they were playing in difficult hitting environments, but Cron simply wasn't the hitter he was made out to be. Even after adjusting for park effects, he wasn't good. As a DH-only player, he's going to have to hit to have any value. He didn't do that last year. He also wasn't even young for the league. He turns 24 next month.

Edited by Angels
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I'm honestly fascinated when people who have literally never seen Cron in their life take one look at his AA numbers and automatically assume they are the subject matter expert. Cron was the best hitter for the Travs in 2013. Better than Lindsey, better than Grichuk, much better than Cowart.

Now understandably, those 3 generally rank higher than Cron on prospect lists because of their youth and defensive premiums, but in terms of skill with the bat, none are better than Cron.

Why were his HR numbers down? He was playing half his games in the most difficult hitting environment in minor league baseball and the other half in a collection of neutral and pitching friendly parks. Never mind the fact that his DB's increased as a result, never mind he was the starting 1B in the Future's Game, never mind he was the best hitter in the AFL, a showcase league for the top minor league talent, never mind the fact that his K/BB ratio improved drastically after the all star break and conitinued to do so in Winter Ball and never mind the fact that he has as much raw power as any elite power hitting prospect in the minors.

He must be awful and that's all there is to it.

 

It's not that we want you to be wrong or anything.  In fact, I really hope you are very much right about him.  Most of us have an outsider's perspective.  You have seen him play regularly and follow him so you either know more useful info or you are too close to it to be objective. 

 

couple things about your statements:

- he was actually a better hitter at home than on the road.  .285/.326/.451 vs .264/.312/.407

- his june, july and august walk rates were all about the same near 5% and he actually struck out quite a bit more in the second half so not sure where you are getting the improve k/bb rate.

 

 

Either way, you have to admit his skillset is unusual and is not one that historically appears to translate to the major leagues very well UNLESS he can truly continue to hit for a high average while supplying excellent pop or if he were to be a premium defender. 

 

the things people have their concerns about are legit.  can he maintain his contact rate?  will he show the power that he has?  will he recognize and lay off of pitches he can't hit?

There is very little precedent for success here and that's what we are pointing out.  I want nothing more than to be proved wrong.

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Why can't Grant Green DH? It's the perfect fit if we deal Trumbo.

Green's production wouldn't even be all that far off from Trumbo.

 

Green will probably post a higher BA/OBP. Trumbo's OPS would probably be like 30-40 points higher but if we got a good pitcher in return for Trumbo, it's worth the drop off from Trumbo to Green. 

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A great fall league performance for Cron still doesn't undo that .750 OPS in 2013 in AA.

 

You know I've not sung the guy's praises but his raw OPS was impacted by that park.  

 

His steamer projections are actually very similar to what they are projecting for Trumbo, higher average, similar OBP, he's giving up like 35pts of SLG%.   That's more of an indictment of Trumbo than real praise for Cron.

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Grichuk (22 HR) and Lindsey (17 HR) both hit more homers than Cron (14 HR) did.

Both hit more homers and hit for more power in AA than they did at A+.

Both are younger than Cron.

 

You're right about one thing...they were playing in difficult hitting environments, but Cron simply wasn't the hitter he was made out to be. Even after adjusting for park effects, he wasn't good. As a DH-only player, he's going to have to hit to have any value. He didn't do that last year. He also wasn't even young for the league. He turns 24 next month.

 

 

Grichuk had to deal with all the same issues.   Those issues and how he handled them as a 21 year old are largely why I hate the Freese trade.

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The best minor league (or rookie eligible) hitters the Angels have in their system would be the following: 

 

1) CJ Cron

2) Grant Green

3) Kaleb Cowart

4) Zach Borenstein

5) Taylor LIndsey

6) Eric Stamets

7) Alex Yarbourgh

8) Jose Rondon

9) Luis Jimenez?

 

Calhoun no longer has Rookie Eligibility.

 

The cupboard is definitely a lot more bare than when they had Kendrick, Aybar, Wood, Napoli, etc coming through the system when the system was ranked #1, or even when they had Trumbo, Bourjos, Segura, and of course Mike Trout, coming through just a few years ago.

 

Cron is an adequate replacement for Trumbo but I don't think he'll be up before mid-season at the earliest. Green is likely to get those AB's. And of course, we'd see more of JB Shuck than any of us really want to.

 

Cowart is due to repeat AA. His offensive numbers were awful. Grichuck likely would've repeated as well.

 

Borenstein is likely to join Cowart in AA as will Yarborough and Stamets. These guys aren't that far away from being major league call-ups, but not ready to be there for the start of the year.

 

The best time therefore to trade Trumbo is after he has a good year in 2014. Then Cron will be ready as a replacement and all of the other Angels hitters will be a lot closer to the majors.

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Grichuk had to deal with all the same issues.   Those issues and how he handled them as a 21 year old are largely why I hate the Freese trade.

 

Seriously the way people talk about cron struggling in a pitchers park at age 24 makes me think Grichuk is going to be an allstar in a few years.

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Seriously the way people talk about cron struggling in a pitchers park at age 24 makes me think Grichuk is going to be an allstar in a few years.

 

Maybe Cron and Grichuk become all-stars, maybe they don't but are solid contributors in the bigs, maybe just one of the two make it, maybe neither do.

 

You cannot read too much into it, but in my case and point of this thread, I see a lot of Trumbo in Cron, but predicting less HR's, higher BA.

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Chuck do you think Cron, Calhoun, Borenstein, or Girchuck is the most successful player in 10 years?

 

 

Cron had a .293 BA and a .843 OPS in High as a 22 year old. Did okay in AA.

 

Grichuck had a .298 BA and a .823 OPS as a 21 year old in High A, didn't do great in AA.

 

Calhoun had a .324 BA and a .957 OPS as a 23 year old in High A, Skipped AA, and had a good year the last two seasons in AAA.

 

Borenstein had a .337 BA and a 1.034 OPS as a 22 year old in High A. We'll see how he does in AA Next year.

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It's not that we want you to be wrong or anything.  In fact, I really hope you are very much right about him.  Most of us have an outsider's perspective.  You have seen him play regularly and follow him so you either know more useful info or you are too close to it to be objective. 

 

couple things about your statements:

- he was actually a better hitter at home than on the road.  .285/.326/.451 vs .264/.312/.407

- his june, july and august walk rates were all about the same near 5% and he actually struck out quite a bit more in the second half so not sure where you are getting the improve k/bb rate.

 

 

Either way, you have to admit his skillset is unusual and is not one that historically appears to translate to the major leagues very well UNLESS he can truly continue to hit for a high average while supplying excellent pop or if he were to be a premium defender. 

 

the things people have their concerns about are legit.  can he maintain his contact rate?  will he show the power that he has?  will he recognize and lay off of pitches he can't hit?

There is very little precedent for success here and that's what we are pointing out.  I want nothing more than to be proved wrong.

 

That really wasn't directed at you so much Doc.  His BB% rose to above 5% in June and beyond after hovering in the 3's and 4's in high A.  I freely admit C.J's skill set is unusual.  In fact I've said several times on this board, he's unique as far as power hitters go.  Tremendous hand-eye coordination.  Takes hacks at balls he reasonably shouldn't ever, but he somehow makes contact with them.  When he forces the pitcher to get a ball somewhere near the zone, he absolutely punishes them.  The Angels have been working with him on this all year.  not exactly the easiest thing to do in your first go-around in AA but he certainly made the adjustments, which explains his tremendous success in the AFL.  I don't know what to make of him in Latin America.  He seems to be doing fine, but since I don't watch him and haven't the slightest idea as to his comfort or physical state I can't say.  

 

What I can say is that Cron looks like a major leaguer to me.  Does he look like an all-star?  No.  Does he look as valuable as Trumbo?  No, mostly because of Trumbo's greater power and athleticism (also doesn't hurt being a local product).  But is C.J. Cron an acceptable substitute headed into the second half of 2014 or beginning 2015?  Absolutely.

 

Trumbo's a solid defensive 1B and passable corner OF with a cannon for an arm that's good for .250/.300 and 35+ HR a year in my mind.  I think Cron's a .270/.320 and 25 HR type of 1B/DH.  Not as good as Trumbo in my mind, but if the Angels can get a Cahill+prospect type of package for Trumbo, I gladly give him up and let Cron grow into the role later this year or early 2015. 

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It's not that we want you to be wrong or anything. In fact, I really hope you are very much right about him. Most of us have an outsider's perspective. You have seen him play regularly and follow him so you either know more useful info or you are too close to it to be objective.

couple things about your statements:

- he was actually a better hitter at home than on the road. .285/.326/.451 vs .264/.312/.407

- his june, july and august walk rates were all about the same near 5% and he actually struck out quite a bit more in the second half so not sure where you are getting the improve k/bb rate.

Either way, you have to admit his skillset is unusual and is not one that historically appears to translate to the major leagues very well UNLESS he can truly continue to hit for a high average while supplying excellent pop or if he were to be a premium defender.

the things people have their concerns about are legit. can he maintain his contact rate? will he show the power that he has? will he recognize and lay off of pitches he can't hit?

There is very little precedent for success here and that's what we are pointing out. I want nothing more than to be proved wrong.

Doc, I keep hearing Trumbo comparisons from scouts on Cron. Check out Trumbo and Cron's High-A and Double-A numbers. Some striking similarities.

When you factor in that Cron was a top rated hitter coming out of college with light tower power, he gets a pass on one subpar season in Double-A. BTW, the talk about him not being able to hit righties is funny. He's destroyed them in college, Short-A and High-A.

While his season in Double-A wasn't bad, it wasn't great either. Much like Mark Trumbo's Double-A stint.

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Doc, I keep hearing Trumbo comparisons from scouts on Cron. Check out Trumbo and Cron's High-A and Double-A numbers. Some striking similarities.

When you factor in that Cron was a top rated hitter coming out of college with light tower power, he gets a pass on one subpar season in Double-A. BTW, the talk about him not being able to hit righties is funny. He's destroyed them in college, Short-A and High-A.

While his season in Double-A wasn't bad, it wasn't great either. Much like Mark Trumbo's Double-A stint.

I believe Mark Trumbo was a year younger in AA.

What's the average age for a top prospect in AA ball? 22? 23?

 

The fact that he struggled so much at 24 is why people aren't too excited about him.

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I believe Mark Trumbo was a year younger in AA.

What's the average age for a top prospect in AA ball? 22? 23?

 

The fact that he struggled so much at 24 is why people aren't too excited about him.

 

Age, whether young or old at certain levels isn't some scientific formula that dictates a prospect's success or failure in the big leagues. I believe Trumbo and Cron were about the same age in Double-A, give or take a few months either way.

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Age, whether young or old at certain levels isn't some scientific formula that dictates a prospect's success or failure in the big leagues. I believe Trumbo and Cron were about the same age in Double-A, give or take a few months either way.

Gotchya.

 

Was trumbo even a top 10 prospect for the angels? I remember him being very under the radar, similar to Mike Napoli.

Maybe there was a reason Trumbo was never a top prospect for the angels?

 

And now Cron is the Angels top prospect.

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I am not so worried about his AA season as much as I am his overall 5% walk rate.  I know he makes good contact, but if he's that swing prone, I am just concerned that major league pitchers will eat him alive and get him to chase for whiffs or weak contact.  I do think he's a better natural hitter than Trumbo and maybe that will help. 

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I am not so worried about his AA season as much as I am his overall 5% walk rate.  I know he makes good contact, but if he's that swing prone, I am just concerned that major league pitchers will eat him alive and get him to chase for whiffs or weak contact.  I do think he's a better natural hitter than Trumbo and maybe that will help. 

 

Yeah, I believe he'll be a .280-.290 guy in the big leagues and hit 20-25 HR, maybe top out in the low 30's. That's not bad. That's Billy Butler type good.

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