Winter Meetings Strategy: The Gamble

[AngelsWin.com]

By Greg Bearringer, AngelsWin.com Columnist -

The worst part of this time of year as a baseball fan, and even more as one trying to write intelligently about it, is that the information available to us is incomplete.  Even if the Angels have already made all their moves, it’s hard to criticize them because there are so many moves that could potentially still be made.  It’s not a question of whether or not the organization is in a good position (it’s not in a great one), or even if the current front office has done a fantastic job of building this team for the future (the next 5-7 years for the franchise look potentially rough.)   It’s a question of whether they have successfully guided the team from the end of the 2013 season into 2014.  After all, halfway to North America, the Titanic's voyage was peachy.  And the 2002 Angels were a good team, but didn't appear to be a championship club by any stretch in March.  So judging an entire offseason before the Winter Meetings even start is not easy (or smart) to do.

The Angels' position is clear:  They have about $15 Million dollars under the luxury tax to add two pitchers.  They have little depth on the roster and only a few valuable pieces which may or may not be valuable enough to add the necessary, cost-controlled pitching they need.  The minor league system appears to have a few solid future regulars, a few pretty interesting "raffle tickets"*, and little in the way of high-impact, high probability prospects arriving in the next few years.  (Though it must be noted the Angels minor league teams have been quite successful in spite of this apparent lack of depth.)

So what to do?  The consensus about the Angels seems to says they will trade for one pitcher and sign another.  This is perhaps a reasonable assumption.  But I wonder if there isn't a second option, one that has the possibility of being better for 2014 and 2017 so to speak.  I am talking about gambling on the anticipated market value of Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo, and signing free agents before they trade these two players away.

Assuming that the Angels are $15 Million under the luxury tax, and that Howie Kendrick ($8.3 Million) and Mark Trumbo ($5 Million) amount to another $13 Million, that leaves the Angels with roughly $28 Million to spend on free agents.  Assuming that Grant Green and the number of quality second basemen in the Angels' system are enough to "replace" Howie, that $28 Million has to go to two pitchers and a DH.  Lets say, for example, the following signings take place:

1) Matt Garza: 4 years, 60 Million. ($15 Million AAV).

2) Roberto Hernandez: 1 Year, $4.5 Million.

3) Corey Hart- 1 Year, 10 Million Dollars.

Ok, so this leaves the Angels $2.5 Million into the luxury tax.  The Angels would have to fork over the mighty sum of $562,500 dollars to the league.  (Hardly a reason to keep from making a couple of good moves.)

Of course the danger here would be that the Angels, now essentially forced to trade Kendrick and Trumbo, might have to take a diminished return given the team's financial position.  But I would suggest that’s not the case.  For starters, taking someone like Hart off the free agent table increases Trumbo's value to the market.  Secondly, it’s almost impossible for Kendrick not to garner some decent interest, especially given that his contract is so darn reasonable.  Before last year’s July trade deadline, the Dodgers reportedly offered Zach Lee and Chris Withrow for Kendrick (that was reportedly vetoed by Moreno last year.)  This deal might now be more palatable to the Angels' boss and would help the Angels restock a beleaguered system.  Similarly, the Angels could wait for that Trumbo deal they were hoping for to materialize.

One of the reasons we want to judge the Angels so quickly is that the Angels appear to be on the precipice of having to do something which seems unimaginable:  trying to rebuild a roster (not to mention the entire decision making structure) saddled with two onerous contracts.  What happens next week at the Winter Meetings may very well have repercussions over how, when, and even if this happens.  This is one idea to have our cake and eat it too.  By dipping slightly into this year's luxury tax, the Angels could improve their chances to compete now and in the future.


* By "raffle tickets," I mean there is a group of young players which seem to have pretty good skills but were undervalued in the draft and still are undervalued to varying degrees.  Mike Morin, Mark Sappington, Eric Stamets, Alex Yarbrough, and  Zach Borenstein are the top examples.  I'd bet at least one of these guys is a future, solid starter.  The best two examples of this in recent Angels history are Ervin Santana and Mike Napoli.  The best current example is Kole Calhoun. 

Los Angeles Angels Tickets

View the full article

[mtangelsfan]

The Angels should not be trading away any of their upper tier prospects.  They don't have enough of them right now. 

 

While I don't believe they really have the pieces yet to replace Kendrick, I would understand trading him, Aybar or Trumbo to get young pitching.  But not trading prospects.  To me, where this team is at, that would be idiotic.

 

Haven't we emptied the cupboard enough already.

[Chuck]

The Angels should not be trading away any of their upper tier prospects.  They don't have enough of them right now. 

 

While I don't believe they really have the pieces yet to replace Kendrick, I would understand trading him, Aybar or Trumbo to get young pitching.  But not trading prospects.  To me, where this team is at, that would be idiotic.

 

Haven't we emptied the cupboard enough already.

 

Prospects, yes, tier II type prospects (Maronde, Borenstein & Yarbrough), I say yes.

[mtangelsfan]

Borenstein is probably our top outfield prospect right now Chuck.  You really want to lose him? 

[Spirit]

Going from Howie to Grant Green at 2nd base would surely be a step down.  But is it one we can withstand?  I think so much hinges on what Albert and Josh are able to do next year.  If they have true bounce back seasons, we'll be tough to beat. 

[Stradling]

I would be ok trading prospects if at least one of our trades brings back prospects.

[Greg_Bearringer]

For the record, I want the Angels to keep a vice grip on their prospects. 

[Greg_Bearringer]

Something just occurred to me: What if the reason we are so scared of the luxury tax this season is that, with Trout about to get PAID, they are afraid of going over next year?

[Spirit]

For the record, I want the Angels to keep a vice grip on their prospects. 

 

 

Good stuff, Greg!  Really appreciate your contributions to the site!  Glad that you joined our stable of writers! 

[mtangelsfan]

Going from Howie to Grant Green at 2nd base would surely be a step down.  But is it one we can withstand?  I think so much hinges on what Albert and Josh are able to do next year.  If they have true bounce back seasons, we'll be tough to beat. 

 

It's a big drop, more on the defensive end than even the offensive one.  Green is a tree.  But if Howie can get us a solid, young arm I think we have to consider it.

[mtangelsfan]

I would be ok trading prospects if at least one of our trades brings back prospects.

 

We need more prospects, not the same amount or less.

[Greg_Bearringer]

It's a big drop, more on the defensive end than even the offensive one.  Green is a tree.  But if Howie can get us a solid, young arm I think we have to consider it.

 

Heck-- if Green can tap into his hitting ability, he might be a net plus. I guess I'd rather start Grant Green than Joe Blanton. Or we can sign Mark Ellis at 2B instead of Hart and let Green be a DH. 

 

I was kidding, but that seems like a decent plan, actually. 

Edited December 9, 2013 by Greg_Bearringer

[Spirit]

It's a big drop, more on the defensive end than even the offensive one.  Green is a tree.  But if Howie can get us a solid, young arm I think we have to consider it.

 

 

If Howie can get us a good arm, I think we have to pull the trigger.  Hopefully Green can continue to develop and grow into the position, and make the drop less drastic. 

[Spirit]

Heck-- if Green can tap into his hitting ability, he might be a net plus. I guess I'd rather start Grant Green than Joe Blanton.

 

 

Move Blanton to 2nd?  Now there's a bold move!   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

=)

[Chuck]

Borenstein is probably our top outfield prospect right now Chuck.  You really want to lose him? 

 

MT, we've seen prospects like Brandon Wood and others over the years have big seasons in the Cal League, where stadiums and weather can help carry the ball out of the ballpark. I'd like to see what he can do in Double-A first before I say he's a can't miss prospect.

 

All I'm saying is that if it takes a tier II prospect to get a deal done, I'd do it.

[Greg_Bearringer]

Move Blanton to 2nd?  Now there's a bold move!   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

=)

 

Crazier things have happened in baseball.

 

You just missed my Grant Green as a DH idea. I like it way too much to not have thought of it before. 

[ODNight]

I agree; however with the Vernon dollars freeing up, this could be the chance to pay the man. Saw his reps may reach for 15 mil in arbitration (unprecedented). A deal with the Dbacks would make some sense as they have rumored interest in Trumbo. Someone will also want Aybar. Personally, I like the SS they have in Gregorious as they have a prospect SS waiting in the wings who they want to call up. Didi is no Simmons, but I think he is a scrappy ballplayer.

 

Something just occurred to me: What if the reason we are so scared of the luxury tax this season is that, with Trout about to get PAID, they are afraid of going over next year?

[mtangelsfan]

MT, we've seen prospects like Brandon Wood and others over the years have big seasons in the Cal League, where stadiums and weather can help carry the ball out of the ballpark. I'd like to see what he can do in Double-A first before I say he's a can't miss prospect.

 

All I'm saying is that if it takes a tier II prospect to get a deal done, I'd do it.

 

Not saying he's can't miss.  Just that at this point he is the best we have since we already gave away Grichuk for nothing IMO.  I just don't believe the Angels are in the position to trade prospects anymore.  We have to build up for a while.  Once we get to the point we were in the mid 2000's we can be a little more bold than Stoneman but not crazy like Dipoto and Reagins.

[Greg_Bearringer]

I agree; however with the Vernon dollars freeing up, this could be the chance to pay the man. Saw his reps may reach for 15 mil in arbitration (unprecedented). A deal with the Dbacks would make some sense as they have rumored interest in Trumbo. Someone will also want Aybar. Personally, I like the SS they have in Gregorious as they have a prospect SS waiting in the wings who they want to call up. Didi is no Simmons, but I think he is a scrappy ballplayer.

 

You and I both like Gregorius. Seriously: he was essentially Aybar last season, but with more walkin':

 

Aybar: .271/.301/382

Gregorious: .252 /.332/.373

[greginpsca]

MT, we've seen prospects like Brandon Wood and others over the years have big seasons in the Cal League, where stadiums and weather can help carry the ball out of the ballpark. I'd like to see what he can do in Double-A first before I say he's a can't miss prospect.

 

All I'm saying is that if it takes a tier II prospect to get a deal done, I'd do it.

This is the reasoning why i like Lindsey so much.  Power hitters get to AA and their #'s go down. Lindsey's power #'s went up, considerably.

[Chuck]

Not saying he's can't miss.  Just that at this point he is the best we have since we already gave away Grichuk for nothing IMO.  I just don't believe the Angels are in the position to trade prospects anymore.  We have to build up for a while.  Once we get to the point we were in the mid 2000's we can be a little more bold than Stoneman but not crazy like Dipoto and Reagins.

 

If Salas proves to be a valuable member of the bullpen this year, we'll never think about Grichuk again, who is not a sure thing to be a 4th outfielder, let alone a major leaguer.

 

Salas looked really good in AAA last season, so hopefully he can build off his performance in Triple-A and translate that success into the big leagues for the Angels in 2014.

[jshep]

I don't know, even if Salas is AWESOME(which seems unlikely to me), it's still going to seem odd that they gave up one of their best prospects in that deal when Salas was weeks away from being freely available for nothing but money.

[mtangelsfan]

Hope so Chuck.  Still to my point our farm system is barer than the Cleveland Browns' quaterback situation. 

[Stradling]

We need more prospects, not the same amount or less.

I'm talking about getting better prospects than we currently have. Not more not less but better.

[James]

If Salas proves to be a valuable member of the bullpen this year, we'll never think about Grichuk again, who is not a sure thing to be a 4th outfielder, let alone a major leaguer.

 

Salas looked really good in AAA last season, so hopefully he can build off his performance in Triple-A and translate that success into the big leagues for the Angels in 2014.

Agreed, I have never understood the support Grichuk has gotten in the Futures forum. He is young so he can very well figure it out but he needs a lot of work to be an everyday player in the bigs. I am not sure why one would think you would get more than a Salas type pitcher for him at this point. Chances are that both players will have very little impact in all honesty.