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Faster than a Speeding Bullet


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Scott, I think you're dead wrong here. Richards has two really good pitches and his changeup while below average, is a serviceable show me pitch to make opposing hitters feel uncomfortable in the box and not sit on just his heater.

 

 

He induces ground balls nearly 58% of the time - that in and of itself makes his reliance on his FB less of an issue.

 

I'd do it but I think half the time people ignore the numbers and it gets old going through all the trouble only to have them be dismissed.  But anyone wanting to see what GR could be -- take a few minutes to visit FGs pitching leaderboards..    Look up the pitchers with a GB rate as high as Richards that come close to his FB velocity.

 

People might be shocked to see the names.   GR could be very good, he may be one of those guys who needs to do less to get more.  The velocity is nice, but Jeff Juden used to throw eleventy million miles an hour too.  The ability to induce GBs at that high a rate -- that's rather unique.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Inside Pitch, I couldn't resist. I looked at all major leaguers from 2011-13 who pitched at least 200 innings (Garret came up in 2011 and has pitched 230 innings).

 

Garret is 9th in Fastball velocity at 94.9 and he's 22nd in GB% at 53.1%, both very impressive. Here's the list of all pitchers with at least 92 FBv AND 50% GB (sorted by GB%):

 

Jim Johnson 60.7%, 94.4

Justin Masterson 56.1%, 92.1

Zach Britton 55.5%, 92.0

Henderson Alvarez 55.4%, 93.3

Lucas Harrell 54.6%, 92.2

AJ Burnett 54.2%, 92.5

Roberto Hernandez 54.0%, 92.1

Garret Richards 53.1%, 94.9

Andrew Cashner 52.9%, 95.2

Tyler Chatwood 52.9%, 93.1

Tyson Ross 51.8%, 93.3

Wily Peralta 51.4%, 94.9

Joe Kelly 51.1%, 94.7

Luis Mendoza 51.0%, 92.0

Johnny Cueto 50.9%, 92.9

Ivan Nova 50.3%, 92.9

Felix Hernandez 50.1%, 92.5

Jerome Williams 50.0%, 92.0

 

Looking at the above list I am reminded of WHY it is important to actually check the numbers - because the list above is not nearly as impressive as you implied, Inside PItch. In fact, it seems like a veritable grab-bag of talent level, from Jerome Williams to Felix Hernandez with everything in between. But let's increase the FBv a bit to 94:

 

Jim Johnson 60.7%, 94.4

Garret Richards 53.1%, 94.9

Andrew Cashner 52.9%, 95.2

Wily Peralta 51.4%, 94.9

Joe Kelly 51.1%, 94.7

 

That's a very interesting list because once you get rid of Johnson, a reliever, it includes three other pitchers who are somewhat similar to Richards: excellent stuff, but only good to very good results (so far). Cashner and Kelly are particularly interesting comps, with Cashner's numbers being almost exactly the same.

 

Now if you look at all major league pitchers who have accrued 10+ fWAR over the last three years, there isn't a clear rhyme or reason to GB% and FBv. The range is:

 

GB%: 33.2 to 50.9

FBv: 88.0 to 94.7

 

As a side note, the low side of those ranges is from none other than Jered Weaver, who is by far the lowest in both of the 21 pitchers in question.

 

Here's something interesting: 16 of the 21 pitchers have a GB% in a relatively tight range of 43.8 to 48.0. That would imply that there's a kind of sweet-spot with GB% among elite starters, and Garret is well above that.

 

Garret's FBv is higher than any of the 21 pitchers, but that's likely because he's done a fair amount of relief. I wouldn't be surprised that as he starts more and more, his FBv will go down a bit - probably around 93, I'm guessing.

 

Anyhow, I think the point is that GB% and FBv together don't alone tell us much about how good a pitcher is.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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Webb seems a bit optimistic - he was #1 in the NL CY Award, and then #2 in the two years after. Then, of course, he got injured and is now out of baseball. Kind of sad, really.

 

Webb IS optimistic -- But, I'm not saying he's Webb..  

 

I'm saying that's the family of pitchers GR falls into..  Roy Oswalt is another guy that was at or above 50% GB rates who was also able to hit 93-95. 

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Sigh....

 

Jim Johnson 60.7%, 94.4   Relief Pitcher

Justin Masterson 56.1%, 92.1  (3.45 ERA last year)

Zach Britton 55.5%, 92.0 (40 innings pitched last year, Career MiLB ERA 3.35, HR 0.5, still breaking into MLB)

Henderson Alvarez 55.4%, 93.3 (3.49 ERA last year 23 years old)

Lucas Harrell 54.6%, 92.2 (Lit up last year 3,76 ERA previous year)

AJ Burnett 54.2%, 92.5 (3.30 ERA last year)

Roberto Hernandez 54.0%, 92.1 (hasnt touched 92 MPH FB velocity since 2011, but he's a baddie)

Garret Richards 53.1%, 94.9

Andrew Cashner 52.9%, 95.2 (3.09 ERA last year)

Tyler Chatwood 52.9%, 93.1 (3.15 ERA last year -- in Coors)

Tyson Ross 51.8%, 93.3 (3.17 ERA last year -- split time between RP/SP

Wily Peralta 51.4%, 94.9 (4.11 ERA last year -- first full season)

Joe Kelly 51.1%, 94.7 (3.08 Career ERA 2.69 ERA last year, 25 years old, splits time between RP/SP)

Luis Mendoza 51.0%, 92.0 (Career Journeyman)

Johnny Cueto 50.9%, 92.9 (2.82 ERA last year 11 starts - 2.78 ERA the year before.  Ace of the Reds)

Ivan Nova 50.3%, 92.9 (3.10 ERA last year)

Felix Hernandez 50.1%, 92.5 (Cy Young Winner)

Jerome Williams 50.0%, 92.0 (everyone knows this guy)

 

So, you mentioned 18 guys - 11 of them posted ERA below 3.49.  

One guy puts up an ERA of 4.37 as a rookie in the 5th best offensive park in MLB (Peralta)

One guy is a RP.  

One of them pitched all of 40 innings but has been rather highly thought of.  (Britton)

One of them got lit up a year after being decent.  

 

So you have Jerome Williams, Luis Mendoza, and Roberto Hernandez as the clear bad guys. 


Your list does more to prove my point than dismiss it.  Two of the three guys who fall into the bad category also had HR/9 rates of at least 1.22 - clearly that's not the desired result -- GR was at 0.74

 

Richards has a better than average chance at doing well.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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OK, some pretty good pitchers - and maybe that's your point, that Garrett could be good to very good. But Felix Hernandez is the only truly great, Cy Young caliber pitcher on that list. Nothing wrong with NOT being a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but you said people "might be shocked to see the names" _ and I don't see this list as particularly shocking.

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OK, some pretty good pitchers - and maybe that's your point, that Garrett could be good to very good. But Felix Hernandez is the only truly great, Cy Young caliber pitcher on that list. Nothing wrong with NOT being a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but you said people "might be shocked to see the names" _ and I don't see this list as particularly shocking.

 

 

AJ forgive my tone -- I think I'm cranky or something.  I had changed "names" to "results", but you had responded before I had fixed it -- so I changed it back to names to avoid it looking like I was being shady.

 

My point is that most pitchers that can combine throwing hard with GB rates have a tendency to be better than average pitchers.  

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Nice research AJ.  It's clear that there isn't a stat or set of stats that is going to be perfect at predicting success for Richards or anyone else for that matter. 

 

It is interesting though that GR was basically a nothing in college with horrible numbers yet a first round pick.  Someone is aware of the GB/FBv combo being at least a good starting point. 

 

AJ's point that less could be more for GR sooner than later. 

 

It's also a nice tool to see who the halos might want to target. 

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I actually spoke with a scout who saw Richards in college. He told me that with proper coaching and accountability, Richards would've never made it out if the first five picks and fall into the Angels lap. The Angels did a ton of homework on Garrett before drafting him in an attempt to identify the gap between talent and performance. I'm not entirely positive other teams went through that much trouble.

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-michael-pineda-part-2-of-2/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/welcome-to-the-rotation-garrett-richards/

The main component in addition to the high groundball rate and high velocity is maintaining a low walk rate which Richards does. The low walk rate appears to be the missing ingredient in the discussion that AJ and IP are having.

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That would be the low end of what he could do. I expect we'll see something a lot better from him, but like you I agree the Angels need a better supporting cast around Richards, Weaver and Wilson.

I hope that's the low end of what he gives us. It makes our rotation way deeper if he provides great value as the 5th starter.

AJ and Inside Pitches' research was great. It's rare to see someone with high velocity, great offspeed stuff, high GB rates and low walk rates. The high GB rate and low BB rate explains why he doesn't get a ton of K's.

If he can improve his changeup, his numbers against lefties might improve which would drive up all his numbers.

I don't see him ever becoming an ace or a #2 guy but a mid rotation guy is very possible.

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  • 5 months later...

93% of his pitches are either a fastball or slider. His mechanics are pretty much a disaster, which leads to an unreapeatable release point:

2013&minmax=ci&var=x0

He's also never thrown more than 145 innings in his life and he'll soon be 26. Nothing about him, besides his fan friendly depth-y curveball screams ace. I see him as a 4-5 guy, maybe a 3 if the cookie crumbles the exact right way and he learns how to throw a changeup.

Lol

As always, spot on projection by the arm chair scout.

Edited by SoWhat
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There's a misconception out there that you HAVE to have three pitches to be an effective starter in the big leagues. 

 

You can get away with having just two, if your two pitches are plus. Richards fastball is anywhere from 94-98 MPH with movement. That alone is tough to square up. Throw in a 78-84 MPH slider and that counts as a changeup because it's an "offspeed" pitch, a pitch that a hitter has to think about, which makes his mid to high 90's fastball all the more effective. 

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