Sufficient improvement? The Angels off-season on the eve of the Winter Meetings

[AngelsWin.com]

By Greg Bearringer, AngelsWin.com Columnist - 

As I witnessed the rest of the league (specifically the AL west) make a flurry of moves over the past few days, I began to wonder just what the Angels are waiting on. Of course, the week before free agency opens in hardly the time for panic, but it is the off-season; a few days can crawl by very, very,very, very slowly.

Part of the problem is that the Angels have begun leaking out information to the press the past few days. "We can't get fair value for Trumbo," the GM says. "Unless they get a good deal for Kendrick, we might have to find two pitchers for the price of two Blanton's", we're told. The question is: what if this is true? What if the offseason is "Freese, Smith, Salas,  Scott Feldman, and Bartolo Colon or something?"

Now, before I go further let me just say that this is almost certainly not the end of the Angels off-season. Once Robinson Cano lands somewhere, teams needing a  second baseman might begin to view Kendrick more favorably. Ditto for Stephen Drew and Erick Aybar.  Personally, I'd love to see a three team trade where the Angels end up with Trevor Cahill or Yovanni Gallardo plus a decent prospect, but we need to remember: off-seasons are weird. "We're done for the offseason" can turn into "welcome Josh Hamilton!"  in a heartbeat. We should also remember that lower expectations are always in the best interest of an organization when it comes to the offseason. If Moreno ends up exceeding the luxury tax and signing a big name free agent or if somehow David Price is the opening day starter in Anaheim, the Angels look like geniuses. If they screw the pooch and end up feeding off  the fetid carrion of a picked-over pitching market (I imagine Dipoto exclaiming, "look, I found a nice hunk of Scott Baker!" to a ravenous Scioscia), then they are simply fulfilling the expectations they set.

Anyway, back to my premise. If this is the Angels off-season, have the Angels improved? The answer would have to be "yes", though with major qualifiers. First, if the Angels can just get "average" out of the two pitchers they end up with, they will have a much improved rotation. Assuming that Sean Burnett returns to form, the Angels bullpen is greatly improved -- even if Joe Smith is mid-grade fuel acquired for  the premium price. The line up is roughly the same as the 5th highest scoring line-up in the AL-- with the addition of a hopefully-healthy Albert Pujols, a huge improvement at third in David Freese, and some presumed improvement by Josh Hamilton. Not loosing Kendrick helps raise the floor of offensive production, and would probably help the defense improve simply out of continuity.

The real question is: would this team plus two average inning-eaters be improved enough to contend for the AL West? The answer, however much it pains me to say it, is probably "no". Even if we take two 200 inning, 4.30 ERA starters as a given, the club still has one-too-many question marks. For starters, the line up is dependent upon improvement by two players who needed to be great and weren't  (Pujols and Hamilton) and the continued quality performance of a rookie (Kole Calhoun). Secondly, there is little depth on the roster outside of  shuffling around Mark Trumbo or hoping that Grant Green isn't a defensive nightmare. The viability of the rotation is dependent upon Jered Weaver not loosing more velocity off his fastball and hoping that the good Garret Richards shows up more often than the bad Garret Richards.

This is the "glass half-empty" view, but it is pretty realistic. If Hamilton and Pujols start playing up to their potential, that plus two average pitchers will have the Angels winning a whole lot more. However, he last two seasons have shown us that "just enough" in the rotation is never enough across a whole season.  I think the Angels need at least one starting pitcher whose description doesn't start with the term "innings eater". It doesn't have to be an ace; it could be a reclamation project with upside or, preferably, a solid no. 3 starter. And, for the record, I think the Angels get just that next week. If they don't, the Angels will probably be hunting for a new GM and manager. The AL west is going to be a fight next year, and they need to make sure that they can take a hit and keep on punching. 

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[Chuck]

Good article, Greg!

[Spirit]

Great having you onboard as part of our writing staff, Greg.  Keep up the good work! 

[19HALO71]

Not really sure why the Angels have not locked up Colon. IMHO I think he can be had for a fair price with incentives. I get why people are staying away from him, but im sure a release from contract can be written into his contract if he comes up hot.

[ELEVEN]

I imagine Dipoto exclaiming, "look, I found a nice hunk of Scott Baker!" to a ravenous Scioscia

Awesome.

[Hubs]

This is totally the glass half-empty view.

 

Bronson Arroyo or Scott Feldman is not awful. They'd get close to $24 M combined. The Angels would have to exceed the Luxury tax or sign one of them and go for a guy like Halladay or Hammel, or someone coming off a down year who they hope to bounce back. 

[WallyWorld]

personally I want no part of Colon, out of principle.  I can't stand that guys caught cheating continue to get huge contracts. F*ck that guy anyone else that cheats.

[mtangelsfan]

This is totally the glass half-empty view.

 

Bronson Arroyo or Scott Feldman is not awful. They'd get close to $24 M combined. The Angels would have to exceed the Luxury tax or sign one of them and go for a guy like Halladay or Hammel, or someone coming off a down year who they hope to bounce back. 

 

wow, if you think the Angels would be competitive with a combination of Feldman and Halladay I don't know what to say.   Ugh.

[Chimi]

Angels are going to get caught sleeping and forced to sign someone like Santana and losing a draft pick.

[Brent Maguire]

This is totally the glass half-empty view.

 

Bronson Arroyo or Scott Feldman is not awful. They'd get close to $24 M combined. The Angels would have to exceed the Luxury tax or sign one of them and go for a guy like Halladay or Hammel, or someone coming off a down year who they hope to bounce back. 

You think a rotation of 1)Weaver 2)Wilson 3)Arroyo/Feldman 4)Richards 5)Halladay/Hammel is good? That rotation looks no different than the terrible one we had last year. 

[HBMike]

Not really sure why the Angels have not locked up Colon. IMHO I think he can be had for a fair price with incentives. I get why people are staying away from him, but im sure a release from contract can be written into his contract if he comes up hot.

According to the A's Colon is looking for two years at 15 to 16 million, is that a fair deal ? Maybe in Jan. he can be had at a fair price, right now he's asking for moon IMHO.

Edited December 4, 2013 by HBMike

[Dave Saltzer]

Good article Greg!

[dimitrig]

I don't think the Angels have improved. In fact, they are worse. There is still time to change it, but they are 2 starters short of a rotation and lost Jerome Williams, too. It would be really, really nice to have Greinke right now instead of Blanton+Colon.

Edited December 4, 2013 by dimitrig

[Hubs]

You think a rotation of 1)Weaver 2)Wilson 3)Arroyo/Feldman 4)Richards 5)Halladay/Hammel is good? That rotation looks no different than the terrible one we had last year. 

 

The rotation last year actually wasn't as bad as people think. It gave up just shy of 500 runs. 

 

That's not great obviously, but it's not bad. The pen gave up 243 runs. In 2011, statistically the best staff the Angels have had, the team gave up 633 runs, which is the lowest under Scioscia. Of those 633, 450 were by the starters.

 

What was that teams rotation? Anyone remember?

 

Weaver (33) 2.41 ERA, 65 runs / 63 ER in 235.2 innings

Haren (34) 3.17 ERA, 91 runs / 84 ER in 237.1 innings

Santana (33) 3.38 ERA, 95 runs / 86 ER in 228.2 innings

Chatwood (25) 4.81 ERA, 79 runs  73 ER in 136.2 inning

Pinero (24) 5.10 ERA. 84 runs/ 78 ER in 137.2 innings

Kazmir (1) 27 ERA, 5 runs, 5 ER in 1.2 innings.

Richards (3) 5.91 ERA, 8 runs, 7 ER, in 10.2 innings

Palmer (3) 5.74 ERA, 11 runs, 10 ER in 15.2 innings

Williams (6) 2.31 ERA / 12 runs, 10 ER in 39 innings

 

Totals = 3.59 Starters ERA, 450 runs, 416 ER in 1043 innings. 

3.52 Pen ERA, 183 runs, 165 ER in 422 innings. 

 

What did 2011 have that 2013 did not?

 

Three starters that pitched 33 games and 210 innings+ for one. Haren, Weaver, and Santana all did that. Last year only CJ Wilson did that. Weaver was so good that year, it may be unreasonable to ask him to do it again. But he may be able to give you what Haren did. Wilson can likely duplicate Santana's numbers at best. Asking Richards to pitch to what Weaver or Haren gave you is not reasonable, but if he and two other starters combined can give you what the average of Weaver, Pinero, Williams, Chatwood and the fill in guys gave them, then they'll be great. What this team needs to be competitive is at least three starters who give them 200 innings and 32 starts. I'd love four guys giving them 30+, and the fifth guy needs to keep his ERA around 4.75.

 

 

 

Also, the pen allowed 60 more runs, in I think 459+ Innings, so while it was more innings, it was a 4.75 ERA from the pen last year. That's bad. The pen in 2011 was significantly better with a bunch of guys who were bad. That just shows you how truly awful the team was out of the pen in 2013.

 

That's why this team will be competitive with a Rotation of

 

Weaver 33 starts, 225 innings, 3.16 ERA, 83 R, 79 ER

Wilson 33 starts, 215.2 innings, 3.38 ERA, 86 R, 81 ER

Richards 32 starts, 200 innings, 3.96 ERA, 90 R, 88 ER

Arroyo 32 starts, 199 innings, 3.98 ERA, 92 R, 88 ER

5th Starter 28 starts, 174 innings, 4.03 ERA, 83 R, 78 ER

Fill in Starter, 4 starts, 24 innings, 5.25 ERA, 16 R, 14 ER 

 

450 Runs, 425 ERA in 1037.2innings. That's about 6 innings less than the 2011 squad but still a 3.69 ERA overall from the starters. Add that to a much improved pen that should be able to pitch to the 2011 level (which wasn't a ridiculous pen, with Walden, Takahashi, Downs, Cassevah, Bell, Rodney, and Rich Thompson).

 

That team will be competitive, with an offense that scored 800+ runs which this offense is certainly capable of.

[mtangelsfan]

So you are basically arguing that we really don't need to make any real improvements.  Just replace players with players at basically the same level and the team should just improve.

 

In the meantime both the A's and the Rangers have actually improved.  

[tdawg87]

Holy assumptions, Batman. You put a lot of effort into your posts Hubs so I gotta give you props for that, but damn dude.

[tennischmp]

That's why this team will be competitive with a Rotation of

 

Weaver 33 starts, 225 innings, 3.16 ERA, 83 R, 79 ER

Wilson 33 starts, 215.2 innings, 3.38 ERA, 86 R, 81 ER

Richards 32 starts, 200 innings, 3.96 ERA, 90 R, 88 ER

Arroyo 32 starts, 199 innings, 3.98 ERA, 92 R, 88 ER

5th Starter 28 starts, 174 innings, 4.03 ERA, 83 R, 78 ER

Fill in Starter, 4 starts, 24 innings, 5.25 ERA, 16 R, 14 ER 

 

450 Runs, 425 ERA in 1037.2innings. That's about 6 innings less than the 2011 squad but still a 3.69 ERA overall from the starters. Add that to a much improved pen that should be able to pitch to the 2011 level (which wasn't a ridiculous pen, with Walden, Takahashi, Downs, Cassevah, Bell, Rodney, and Rich Thompson).

 

That team will be competitive, with an offense that scored 800+ runs which this offense is certainly capable of.

 

 

Those are some extremely optimistic projections. And I like how you think the fill in starter will only need to start 4 games. Also why are you comparing 2011? They only won 86 games that year, just 8 more than this year. So with your extremely optimistic projections and the unrealistic expectations of no one actually getting injured they would still only win 86 games.

Edited December 5, 2013 by tennischmp

[Brent Maguire]

1)I don't think Arroyo puts up those numbers here. Making a move to the AL will most likely hurt his numbers.

2)Which 5th starter are you looking at that can put up those numbers? I think Colon is the closest guy to do that and he's not going to be cheap.

[jshep]

Only 5 teams in baseball last year saw their starters give up more runs than the Angels: Minnesota, Toronto, Baltimore, Houston, and Philadelphia.

 

Arroyo and a lottery ticket on Halladay or whomever would be pressed to not be better than Blanton and Hanson, but this team really needs better than that.

 

And I'm not buying into the "much improved bullpen" yet. The bullpen changes thusfar are basically Joe Smith replacing Scott Downs and Mexi-Kohn(Fernando Salas) replacing Michael Kohn. And we're HOPING Sean Burnett is healthy.

[Scott34]

What makes anyone think that Richards is going to put up a sub-4 ERA is beyond me.

[tdawg87]

Or 200 innings.

[jshep]

Ya, his 145 innings last year are his career high. Projecting 200 out of him this year is rather aggressive.

 

While I certainly do think he could do better, the Angels shouldn't be counting on him for anything more than #5 starter type performance in building the 2014 roster.

Edited December 5, 2013 by jshep

[Hubs]

Last year, the Angels gave up 243 runs in relief, and 494 as a starting staff.

 

450 was where I said they needed to be, which would've been 5th in the AL right before Boston at 451. In 2011, they'd were 2nd at 451.

 

The league scored less runs on average off starters in 2013 than it did in 2011. They were 51 runs better than the AL Average. Last year they were 20 below, as the average was 474 down from 501. 

 

So if they wanted to get to 51 runs better than that, they'd have to get down to 423, which is 27 runs less than my above numbers or basically Jered Weaver giving them an ERA around 2.76 (69 runs allowed), and Richards and Arroyo being at 3.67 instead of close to 4. That's not realistic and even more rosy than my projections.

[Brent Maguire]

What makes anyone think that Richards is going to put up a sub-4 ERA is beyond me.

I think Steamer's projection for him next year is pretty spot on. 

 

173 IP 4.44 ERA 4.00 FIP 6.15 K/9 3.51 BB/9

 

It was nice to see all his numbers trend upwards last year though. 

[Hubs]

Ya, his 145 innings last year are his career high. Projecting 200 out of him this year is rather aggressive.

 

While I certainly do think he could do better, the Angels shouldn't be counting on him for anything more than #5 starter type performance in building the 2014 roster.

 

 

It's actually why I wanted to sign Haren or Vargas and Arroyo, pushing Richards down to being the unnamed #5 in my numbers above.

 

Richards did have an ERA at 4.18 as a starter last year and 3.59 in the second half. An ERA around 4 is do-able in 175 or so innings.