Worst and Best Case Scenarios

[Angelsjunky]

Worst Case Scenario

Jerry Dipoto continues to feebly fiddle with the roster, ends up making (yet another) panic move, over-pays for some pitcher(s) that under-perform - and loses the Angels' first round pick in the process. In 2014, the Angels disappoint once again - Pujols shows that it isn't just injury or adjustment but that he's just getting old, and Hamilton continues to be an undisciplined mess. Worse yet, Trout starts showing signs of discontent and refuses to sign a long-term contract.

 

Fast forward a few years - the Angels continue to struggle, putting up 70-80 win seasons, with the occasional 80-85 win season, mainly through cobbling together teams with free agents. This gives them enough hope to think they don't need to rebuild, which in turn leads to more bad free agent signings. While Dipoto was fired in 2014, his replacement is no better and has little to work with - a decimated farm system that is slow to recover, and an aging roster with over-priced immovable parts. Trout continues to put off a long-term contract and, though it becomes clear he wants to "test the waters" of free agency, the Angels don't trade him during his last season because they're on the edge of contention. Instead, they make some deadline deals that trade away young parts for aging "proven veterans," and tank. Angel Oracle finally spontaneously combusts during the elimination game at the Angels stadium, taking out sixteen fellow fans.

 

In the offseason, Trout heads to the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies to the tune of a 10-year, $350 million deal. Hey, but the Angels get a compensation first round pick, the 29th of the draft!  To make matters worse, Trout finally wins an MVP award in 2018, now that he's surrounded by a good team. The Angels dark age continues...

 

Best Case Scenario

Dipoto pulls off a miracle trade and/or signs Tanaka, who turns out wonderfully. Everything gels in 2014 - Pujols and Hamilton resurge, the pitching comes together - and the Angels roar into their first postseason in five years.

 

Trout signs a long-term contract for the "bargain" of 8/$200MM, and Dipoto finally finds his sea-legs and is able to keep the team contending over the next few years as he rebuilds the farm system and forms a strong young team around Trout. The Angels enter a new golden era in 2017 or so, behind the strong young core of Trout, Lindsey, Cowart, Rondon, Delgado, etc.

 

Or something like that. Obviously they're both extremes and the truth will probably be somewhere between, but I can't help but feel that we're heading more towards the former than latter. But I hold out hope!

[Angel Oracle]

If we STOP trading almost all key prospects away, there may be hope.

Just STOP it!

[wopphil]

I don't think we need "everything" to fall into place in order to be competitive next season. Tanaka or Garza would go a long way toward solidifying the rotation, and we could probably fill the last rotation spot with a lower tier free agent in the event Jerry can't pull off a trade. The only issue could be cap space.

[ettin]

If we STOP trading almost all key prospects away, there may be hope.

Just STOP it!

 

We have key prospects?

 

[Chuck]

We have key prospects?

 

 

Yeah, it sucked getting Greinke, Haren, Frieri at the time. What a POS GM for trying to help the team win over the years.

[Scott34]

Yeah, it sucked getting Greinke, Haren, Frieri at the time. What a POS GM for trying to help the team win over the years.

Flawed argument. Mozeliak, Dombrowski, Daniels, Beane have won and maintained a solid farm. It shouldn't be/isn't one or the other.

I'm convinced Dipoto is thoroughly overmatched.

[John Shay]

Yea our  TOP prospects Dallas Macpherson, Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Trevor Reckling, etc. have all turned out to be Future HOF's.

 

If they don't make a trade for Greinke or Haren then everybody would have complained about them not making a move. It's always a calculated risk and no matter what direction the Front Office decides, the fans will always find something to second guess and complain about.

[Chuck]

Flawed argument. Mozeliak, Dombrowski, Daniels, Beane have won and maintained a solid farm. It shouldn't be/isn't one or the other.

I'm convinced Dipoto is thoroughly overmatched.

 

Those were our best prospects. But remember, Dipoto traded FOR some of them (Corbin & Skaggs). They're gone and unfortunately others haven't stepped up and there were injuries and lack of performances by star players that factor into the question. It's not a flawed argument. Besides Segura, who really did we lose that could have helped this team? Maybe Chatwood, but he was dogshit with a terrible WHIP and BB/K rate when he was traded for Iannetta, a move everyone applauded Dipoto for.

 

Take away Miguel Cabrera for over a half a season, see Prince Fielder suck ass like Hamilton and Verlander and Fister miss significant time on the DL and the Tigers don't win the AL Central. The Tigers got away with Cameron Maybin and the tall southpaw (can't remember his name, both can't miss guys at the time) sucking.

[Chuck]

Yea our  TOP prospects Dallas Macpherson, Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Trevor Reckling, etc. have all turned out to be Future HOF's.

 

If they don't make a trade for Greinke or Haren then everybody would have complained about them not making a move. It's always a calculated risk and no matter what direction the Front Office decides, the fans will always find something to second guess and complain about.

 

Exactly!

[tdawg87]

Chuck don't make me fly over there and bitchslap you. Nobody said anything about not wanting the GM to help the team win but we literally have no standout prospects that other teams would covet or for the Angels themselves to covet because they've all been traded away or not developed at all because of losing draft picks.

Having a healthy farm system is what makes organizations strong. You keep the guys you feel will help the team win and trade away the ones who don't have a spot that another team has a spot for. Obviously that doesn't always work out (McPherson, Wood, Kotchman) but the Angels still remained competitive despite the "can't miss prospect" failings. Now we have an organization that is weak from top to bottom and is incredibly expensive to boot.

The "win now" mentality has brought us 0 playoff appearences. The fact that people were excited at the time something happened doesn't automatically mean they can never criticize that thing in the future. They were wrong for getting excited because the trades ended up not working out. This is why fans don't get paid to make decisions. We are reactionary and emotionally irrational. We can't comprehend the future when we have a shiny new thing dangling right in front of us. I was excited when we traded for Haren. I was wrong. I was excited when we traded for Greinke. I was wrong. I was excited when we signed Pujols and lost a prospect. I was wrong. I was excited when we signed Hamilton and lost a prospect. I was wrong. Me being wrong has no effect on the team. The GM being wrong does. Hindsight doesn't negate that.

[Scott34]

Those were our best prospects. But remember, Dipoto traded FOR some of them (Corbin & Skaggs). They're gone and unfortunately others haven't stepped up and there were injuries and lack of performances by star players that factor into the question. It's not a flawed argument. Besides Segura, who really did we lose that could have helped this team? Maybe Chatwood, but he was dogshit with a terrible WHIP and BB/K rate when he was traded for Iannetta, a move everyone applauded Dipoto for.

Take away Miguel Cabrera for over a half a season, see Prince Fielder suck ass like Hamilton and Verlander and Fister miss significant time on the DL and the Tigers don't win the AL Central. The Tigers got away with Cameron Maybin and the tall southpaw (can't remember his name, both can't miss guys at the time) sucking.

If Cabrera went down, they would have a Castellanos step in and rake. Not Chris Nelson or JB Shuck.

I don't see the logic in caring about what the fans applauded or didn't. Doesn't matter.

[Hubs]

DiPoto's transactions as a GM are all at the following link.

 

http://www.angelswin-forum.com/forums/topic/61-jerry-dipoto-gm-history/

 

 

Look that over. Which ones look good in hindsight, and which did we not like at the time, that turned out to be good? Which did we like that turned out to be bad?

 

Okay, so obviously the major three transactions that DiPoto has done are 1) Sign Pujols. 2) Sign Hamilton. 3) Sign CJ Wilson. Pujols had a good season in 2012, people forget because his first month was bad in the home run and average department. He had 50 doubles that year. Hamilton struggled in his first half, but remember he wasn't Torrii Hunter's direct replacement, he was also a needed left-handed replacement. In 2012, After Trout came up, and Abreu was replaced, the lineup was basically all-right handed or switch hitters. Only Conger, Aybar, Morales, and Callaspo were switch hitters. Only one of those players, Morales was a threat of any kind from the left side. So, Hamilton struggled, but he did balance the lineup out, and going into 2014, it's a much more balanced L/R Lineup. CJ WIlson has arguably been the most dependable Angels starter since he was signed. 

 

Other moves included: Extending Aybar and Kendrick, who would both have been eligible for free agency right now, and probably would've commanded a higher AAV than they got. Trading Chatwood for Iannetta was good at the time, since they had no dependable catcher. Trading Bourjos for Freese was negatively viewed, but realistically, they traded from a position of strength to acquire a solid player at a position of need. Freese is a better hitter than Callaspo. In the bullpen, he's had mostly misses. Chad Cordero and Madson were reclamation projects, Frieri was the lone hit. Hawkins, Isringhausen = Bad.

 

Trading for Greinke was probably a mistake in that he gave up Segura, (who came crashing down to earth after his first start) and two of the Angels only near-ready pitching prospects. They should've gotten something else back prospect wise from the Brewers.

 

Santana trade was not good, but we all understood why he did it. I'd have tried to get Santana signed to an extension that lowered his AAV, somewhere between what Blanton got and what Santana's option was. 

 

He hasn't had much success with starters which is odd, since he was a pitcher, because Blanton was an awful signing, Hanson didn't work out, Santana and Haren both had better years last year, to the point that the Angels might have made the playoffs had they exercised both those options and say addressed third base by moving Walden and Bourjos last year for Freese? Or kept Segura around to man third, instead of signing Callaspo, though they did get Grant Green in the trade of Callaspo.They could've then been in line for draft pick compensation the way the Red Sox always are.

 

My point is that every GM has hits and misses, and DiPoto isn't always going to hit. 

 

Still, I have a hard time seeing them going down the worst case scenario route. They have too much offensive talent and the rotation will still be adequate, just as it was last year, even with a rotation of Wilson, Weaver, Richards, Shoemaker, Blanton. That rotation still will give up 500 runs at most, if they avoid injuries. (80, 80, 90, 120, 130) That's a Starters ERA close to say 4.1? 

[ELEVEN]

Angel Oracle finally spontaneously combusts during the elimination game at the Angels stadium, taking out sixteen fellow fans.

 

Big Bang Friday makes a comeback!

[Troll Daddy]

Chuck don't make me fly over there and bitchslap you. Nobody said anything about not wanting the GM to help the team win but we literally have no standout prospects that other teams would covet or for the Angels themselves to covet because they've all been traded away or not developed at all because of losing draft picks.

Having a healthy farm system is what makes organizations strong. You keep the guys you feel will help the team win and trade away the ones who don't have a spot that another team has a spot for. Obviously that doesn't always work out (McPherson, Wood, Kotchman) but the Angels still remained competitive despite the "can't miss prospect" failings. Now we have an organization that is weak from top to bottom and is incredibly expensive to boot.

The "win now" mentality has brought us 0 playoff appearences. The fact that people were excited at the time something happened doesn't automatically mean they can never criticize that thing in the future. They were wrong for getting excited because the trades ended up not working out. This is why fans don't get paid to make decisions. We are reactionary and emotionally irrational. We can't comprehend the future when we have a shiny new thing dangling right in front of us. I was excited when we traded for Haren. I was wrong. I was excited when we traded for Greinke. I was wrong. I was excited when we signed Pujols and lost a prospect. I was wrong. I was excited when we signed Hamilton and lost a prospect. I was wrong. Me being wrong has no effect on the team. The GM being wrong does. Hindsight doesn't negate that.

 

I would luv for someone to come over and bitch slap you for me ... win now is the only way to play the game. Doesn't mean you go out and make foolish moves in the case of Pujols and Hamilton. Although, it's still early to judge the outcome of these signings.

 

Money wise they will never be good signings but not to many free agent deals are it seems. I can see a WS appearance in the horizon

 

Keep the Faith

Edited December 4, 2013 by Troll Daddy