Tanaka is going to cost exponentially more than what anyone thought

[Erstad Grit]

Holy smokes, watching these average (at best) SP rake it in really bumps his price up. 

 

Hope you have a backup plan JD. 

 

Blanton and Jerome will not be part of a playoff rotation. They will have a nice game here and there but overall kill the bullpen when they get routinely shelled by the 5th inning. 

 

Last year Blanton had 9/20 starts not go more than 5 innings and Jerome had a stretch of 5 starts where he pitched a total of 18 innings. (I like Jerome, but as a swing guy for insurance, not a consistent starter.) 

 

[jshep]

...if Tanaka even gets posted this winter.

[ettin]

That all depends EG on what happens with the posting system.

 

If it stays relatively the same (where there is only one winning bid) then the posting fee will probably be higher than $80 million but Tanaka's actual salary will probably stay in the $10-$13 million range as he will be dealing with one club.

 

However if a set of new rules takes effect where there is more than one club in the negotiation then yes, you may be right about his AAV going up to the $15-$20 million range (unlikely but possible in this market).

[ettin]

He'll get posted alright.  

 

With the posting fee divided up over 6 or so years, he'll cost $15-20 mill/year when all is said and done, completely realistically.   

 

Unless the rules change the posting fee doesn't count towards the team payroll.

[Docwaukee]

From all accounts of how good he will be, I'd be fine with the halos going to 120ish for posting + contract. 

[Brent Maguire]

The comparison to Kuroda and the scouting reports make me feel confident in this guy. If he costs around 100-120 million with the posting fee included, I pray we sign him. 

 

He'd be our 2nd best pitcher and would probably be our best guy in a year or 2. This isn't a move for just next year but a long term move that gets our starting rotation moving in the right direction. 

[Glen]

The comparison to Kuroda and the scouting reports make me feel confident in this guy. If he costs around 100-120 million with the posting fee included, I pray we sign him. 

 

He'd be our 2nd best pitcher and would probably be our best guy in a year or 2. This isn't a move for just next year but a long term move that gets our starting rotation moving in the right direction. 

 

 

His posting fee will probably hit around $80 million - it's already rumored to be in the $70 million range and a lot of rich teams need him.  I think the total investment in him will exceed $130 million.  That's a huge risk, but I guess it's necessary at this point for the Angels.

[Brent Maguire]

I think Tanaka is as close to a must sign guy as anyone this offseason for the Angels. If he costs 130 million, then go for it.

[Blarg]

Posting fees are stupid.

[Erstad Grit]

I think Tanaka is as close to a must sign guy as anyone this offseason for the Angels. If he costs 130 million, then go for it.

I think a lot of teams are saying the same thing. 

[ettin]

yeah, it's magically free

 

herp derp

 

wow

 

if you're talking about exemption from something like the luxury tax, then yeah, you're right.

 

exactly no team thinks of the posting fee as anything but payroll divided up over the course of the player's contract when making their decision to spend the millions upon millions for posting the highest bid. 

 

Nice mature response cezero.

 

Of course it costs money but it comes out of the marketing budget if they continue with the past rule in the new agreement (or simply continue with the old system). That is an entirely different part of the allocated team budget which does not count against the luxury for the posting fee only.

 

Never said its magically free I simply pointed out that your $15-$20 million blow to team payroll may not be a reality to actual team budget.

 

There has been a whole lot of negativity on this board lately I'd appreciate it if you didn't continue to add to it, please.

[Brent Maguire]

I think a lot of teams are saying the same thing.

I'm sure the big market teams are thinking that.

I don't see the Dodgers making a bid which helps our chances a bit more though.

[Erstad Grit]

I'm sure the big market teams are thinking that.

I don't see the Dodgers making a bid which helps our chances a bit more though.

 

You would think so with Greinke's deal and Kershaw FA year coming up but I could also see them going for it. 

[Brent Maguire]

You would think so with Greinke's deal and Kershaw FA year coming up but I could also see them going for it. 

I can't see them getting in on the sweepstakes. They have Kershaw, Grienke, Ryu, Haren, Beckett, Billingsley, which is plenty deep and good for a rotation. With guys like Magill and Fife, and Zach Lee being close to MLB ready, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Tanaka. 

[Erstad Grit]

I can't see them getting in on the sweepstakes. They have Kershaw, Grienke, Ryu, Haren, Beckett, Billingsley, which is plenty deep and good for a rotation. With guys like Magill and Fife, and Zach Lee being close to MLB ready, it wouldn't make much sense to sign Tanaka. 

 

I totally forgot they signed Haren. I doubt they are putting much stock in Beckett or Billingsley. You are right they have a glutton of guys who could easily be a 5# starter. 

 

If Kershaw really baulked at their 300 mil offer they could get Tanaka and for one year have a super rotation and let Kershaw walk. 

 

I'm just really worried we go all in on Tanaka, get outbid, and role with Blanton/Williams because everyone else is gone. 

[Brent Maguire]

Trust me, it would not shock me in the least bit if the Dodgers signed Tanaka. That's just what that franchise has done the past year and a half. 

 

I hope we are extremely serious about bringing him in. He's the only guy that will resemble anything close to a #2 pitcher. I can see 200 innings of a 3.30 ERA 180 K's 50 BB, which would be a huge impact guy that this rotation needs. 

[Docwaukee]

If the halos truly view him as a top of the rotation starter, then they better get him because it will be their only chance to get that caliber of pitcher for the foreseeable future.  If they think he's as likely to be a mid to back end rotation guy, then they should probably look elsewhere. 

[Brent Maguire]

If the halos truly view him as a top of the rotation starter, then they better get him because it will be their only chance to get that caliber of pitcher for the foreseeable future.  If they think he's as likely to be a mid to back end rotation guy, then they should probably look elsewhere. 

Absolutely. The biggest issue is that anybody else on the FA market is no better than a league average guy and Tanaka has the potential to be far beyond that. It's very risky here but I would feel way better about him than I did for Hamilton last year or giving 5/80 to Garza. 

[Docwaukee]

I'd actually consider Garza at 5/80.  I'm thinking he's gonna get 5/100 or maybe 95. 

[Brent Maguire]

I wouldn't mind him either at that cost. Tanaka is a better option IMO but Garza may be the only other guy outside of Tanaka who can be an impact guy. 

 

16 mil per year isn't too bad for a guy who 2.65 WAR per year since '08. His BB rate improved last year too while still keeping an above average K rate. 

[Angel Oracle]

We had better not see Blanton in the rotation.

But I could see Moreno and Dipoto try to sell Blanton as a #5 on us.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Tanaka is still going to cost just as much if not slightly less (combining posting fee and salary) than Hamiltons contract last year. 

 

Angels baseball everyone.

[Stradling]

That may be true HoA but one has quite the major league resume while the other could be Darvish or he could be Dice-K. Not too mention there is far less risk signing an outfielder to a large contract than a pitcher. Let's see how Josh does this year before deciding it's another shitty contract.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I wouldn't mind him either at that cost. Tanaka is a better option IMO but Garza may be the only other guy outside of Tanaka who can be an impact guy. 

 

16 mil per year isn't too bad for a guy who 2.65 WAR per year since '08. His BB rate improved last year too while still keeping an above average K rate. 

 

Garza is average at best. I'm not sold on him being a significant upgrade over Phil Hughes...

[Troll Daddy]

My bet is on the Yankees singing Tanaka.