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Phil Hughes gets 3 - year deal from Twins (24 million)


Chuck

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Hughes is not career league average even by your own statement that he pitches to a 95 ERA+ (last season 78 ERA+). Now if you want to talk about blowing smoke up people's ass about how valuable the guy is then maybe we take the last four years as a starter.

 

176.1 innings pitched 100 ERA+

74.2 innings pitched 74 ERA+

181.1 innings pitched 100 ERA+

145.2 innings pitched 78 ERA+

 

That is not a reliable pitcher league average pticher, it is a guy that puts out maybe 5 innings a start. Not a guy that you give 3 year contracts to. We can disagree but it still doesn't make your argument right.

 

LOL..  

 

So I say, he's a career 95 ERA+ pitcher "capable" of being a league average pitcher.   You respond by telling me he's a career 95 ERA+ pitcher and then, point to his last four years where he's posted a league average ERA+s twice and then you tell me I'm blowing smoke and wrong.

 

Brilliant.  

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Hughes is not career league average even by your own statement that he pitches to a 95 ERA+ (last season 78 ERA+). Now if you want to talk about blowing smoke up people's ass about how valuable the guy is then maybe we take the last four years as a starter.

 

176.1 innings pitched 100 ERA+

74.2 innings pitched 74 ERA+

181.1 innings pitched 100 ERA+

145.2 innings pitched 78 ERA+

 

That is not a reliable pitcher league average pticher, it is a guy that puts out maybe 5 innings a start. Not a guy that you give 3 year contracts to. We can disagree but it still doesn't make your argument right.

 

I can't disagree with your numbers of how he pitched being a yankee.  My contention is that you can't totally rely on his previous numbers to equal what he would do as a halo because of how big the park factor would be.  It's certainly not something I can prove obviously, but I am predicting that he will do very well and absolutely outperform his previous numbers.  He'll flourish at Target field as it's similar to Angel stadium in holding hrs down.  

 

I'm gonna predict 200ip and a mid 3's era.   

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IP I also posted two seasons that are bookending those that he is Joe Blanton. Hughes best season ever was as a relief pitcher. In other words used until he was no longer effective or placed only in situations where he would be effective. Last season the Yankees pulled him early and often as they did throughout his career, relying on the bullpen to bail him out. Minnesota will not be that gracuous, they need innings to get to the end of another year where they know going in they will not be competitive.

 

Minnestoa is not the Red Sox, they are not going from 68 wins to the division title. Hughes is not a pitcher that increases their chances of getting there, he just replaces their Joe Blanton. I have hopes the Angels can look at a better solution than tading Blanton for a guy with Hughes on and off career coupled with three years.

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I can't disagree with your numbers of how he pitched being a yankee.  My contention is that you can't totally rely on his previous numbers to equal what he would do as a halo because of how big the park factor would be.  It's certainly not something I can prove obviously, but I am predicting that he will do very well and absolutely outperform his previous numbers.  He'll flourish at Target field as it's similar to Angel stadium in holding hrs down.  

 

I'm gonna predict 200ip and a mid 3's era.   

ERA+ is supposed to park nuetralize stats. Not that I think it is the end all to whether a pitcher does better at one park opposed to another but games and innings pitched is what is required from starters to be of value.

 

Let me tag this and say $8 million is a lot to pay for a long reliever posing as a starting pitcher.

Edited by Mudville
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IP I also posted two seasons that are bookending those that he is Joe Blanton. Hughes best season ever was as a relief pitcher. In other words used until he was no longer effective or placed only in situations where he would be effective. Last season the Yankees pulled him early and often as they did throughout his career, relying on the bullpen to bail him out. Minnesota will not be that gracuous, they need innings to get to the end of another year where they know going in they will not be competitive.

 

Minnestoa is not the Red Sox, they are not going from 68 wins to the division title. Hughes is not a pitcher that increases their chances of getting there, he just replaces their Joe Blanton. I have hopes the Angels can look at a better solution than tading Blanton for a guy with Hughes on and off career coupled with three years.

 

 

Last season is why he's a buy low option.   If you think last year is the real indication of his skill set -- then fine.   I don't think that's the case.   

 

Your tripe about Hughes impact on the Twins and bringing up the Red Sox is pointless.  Nobody is claiming Hughes is a game changer, and I personally have said nothing other than he is a good bet to improve on his career ERA+ of 95.  You're trying really hard to argue what nobody is claiming.  

 

I actually do agree he's at best a 6 inning guy -- but for a 5th starter, that's okay for me.   Hughes has started at least 29 games in 3 of the last 4 years, he was injured in the other.  He averaged 6 IP a start in both 2010 and 2012.

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ERA+ is supposed to park nuetralize stats. Not that I think it is the end all to whether a pitcher does better at one park opposed to another but games and innings pitched is what is required from starters to be of value.

 

Let me tag this and say $8 million is a lot to pay for a long reliever posing as a starting pitcher.

 

 

YES, it does..   It doesn't however account for a pitcher's skill set and how it would play in a certain park.   That's the rub.  It's a tools assessment that argues he would do better away from NY.  ERA+ doesn't do anything other than report the results -- not explain why they happened.

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So here's the thing. 

 

this hopefully means they have their sights set a lot higher. 

 

I am trying to put myself in Arte's shoes here. 

You make some huge moves to bring in Pujols, Hamilton, and Wilson.  You try the 'value' route on the run prevention side by bringing in the dynamic acapella trio of Blanton, Hanson, and Madsen to shore up other holes which blew up like a freshman sorority pledge. 

 

So you've gone all in.  Now if you were going to back out of that a bit, would you move one of your chips for David Freese and sign a pen arm for 5mil per? No.  Which means you are still all in.  You've tried the Blanton type move in the past and a player like Hughes probably reeks of the same (even though I personally might disagree) so you aren't overly inclined to make the same mistake.

 

Keep in mind, I am Arte Moreno and I am playing for the next two years.  So, if I'm doing that, I make a move for Tanaka and I sign Garza.  If I only get one of them, then I trade for someone similar.

 

So that's where I assume they are going with this.  If they sign Arroyo, Maholm, Feldman or some other scrub for a rotation spot in the near future and especially before the meetings, then I have no clue what is going on with this team and I'd have serious doubts that they do either. 

 

I can't be overly annoyed with this as of yet, but at some point it's got potential to be extremely disheartening. 

 

I agree, but signing Garza would be a huge waste of money.

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ERA+ is supposed to park nuetralize stats. Not that I think it is the end all to whether a pitcher does better at one park opposed to another but games and innings pitched is what is required from starters to be of value.

 

Let me tag this and say $8 million is a lot to pay for a long reliever posing as a starting pitcher.

 

ERA+ is park neutral but it's not meant to be a predictor of future performance, but rather descriptive of past performance. Stats like ERA+ make park adjustments but they make them to everyone equally. A stadium might give up 10% more homeruns, and some stats will give players a run credit for that. If we look deeper and see that 90% of that 10% increase comes from left handed batters we would then want to look at a projection system to see how specific players would benefit from that as stats like OPS+ and ERA+ would hand the benefit out equally.

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I agree, but signing Garza would be a huge waste of money.

I agree as well.  I don't want any part of that guy personally.  But they are not running the team with concern for 2016 or beyond. 

 

He would be nice to have for a couple of years if they did sign him though and probably gives us a better chance to win over that time than Hughes.

 

They seem to have no real concern for the future right now.  So F it. 

 

My real point was that if they wanted a value in this market, they missed it.

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I agree as well.  I don't want any part of that guy personally.  But they are not running the team with concern for 2016 or beyond. 

 

He would be nice to have for a couple of years if they did sign him though and probably gives us a better chance to win over that time than Hughes.

 

They seem to have no real concern for the future right now.  So F it. 

 

My real point was that if they wanted a value in this market, they missed it.

 

Oh I agree. I also think it's funny that I have been saying that exact same thing since the Dan Haren trade, and that was like 4 years ago now.

 

This team was showing no regard for 2012, 2013, and 2014 back then, yet they spent all that money. Now here we are looking at 2014, wondering WTF do we do, and commenting on how we appear to be showing little regard for '16 and '17. 

 

Something tells me when '16 & '17 come we'll be having the same discussion.

 

The real problem has been the 'win now' philosophy, and perhaps even worse, the denile that the window has already passed. 

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Oh I agree. I also think it's funny that I have been saying that exact same thing since the Dan Haren trade, and that was like 4 years ago now.

 

This team was showing no regard for 2012, 2013, and 2014 back then, yet they spent all that money. Now here we are looking at 2014, wondering WTF do we do, and commenting on how we appear to be showing little regard for '16 and '17. 

 

Something tells me when '16 & '17 come we'll be having the same discussion.

 

The real problem has been the 'win now' philosophy, and perhaps even worse, the denile that the window has already passed. 

 

I've just resigned myself to thinking I have no clue what they are doing or what direction they are heading.  It will make things easier to swallow if I stop trying to rationalize how their actions fall short of what the GM's stated long term vision is.

 

I might just be better off turning the sound off anytime JD speaks.

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Oh I agree. I also think it's funny that I have been saying that exact same thing since the Dan Haren trade, and that was like 4 years ago now.

 

This team was showing no regard for 2012, 2013, and 2014 back then, yet they spent all that money. Now here we are looking at 2014, wondering WTF do we do, and commenting on how we appear to be showing little regard for '16 and '17. 

 

Something tells me when '16 & '17 come we'll be having the same discussion.

 

The real problem has been the 'win now' philosophy, and perhaps even worse, the denile that the window has already passed.

Great post, that pretty much sums it up. Arte wanted to be the "Yankees of the west" but it's turning out more like the Mets. These next few years have the potential to be pretty bad with no clear signs of improvement and a barren farm system(for now) they are almost forced to keep spending if the want a chance to contend.

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Part of the reason I started writing the 'Hot Stove Trade Speculation' articles was to point out the plethora of young starting pitching options out there that we could trade for. Whether you agreed with the trade ideas or not it did show that there are options out there that could join our rotation and pitch just as well as Hughes, Arroyo, et.al. at the league minimum.

 

I sincerely believe that Dipoto has one or more trades ready to go and there is some X event that needs to occur first before it is announced.

I sincerely hope that "X event" is not related to someplace hot having a sudden cold snap.

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I've just resigned myself to thinking I have no clue what they are doing or what direction they are heading.  It will make things easier to swallow if I stop trying to rationalize how their actions fall short of what the GM's stated long term vision is.

 

I might just be better off turning the sound off anytime JD speaks.

Basically this. 

 

I want to think they are going all in basically each year right now yet last year they sign a guy like Blanton and trade for Hanson and think that should be enough to get into the playoffs. It's almost if they were denying the fact the Blanton had sucked for years and Hanson had serious arm problems as well as his declining velocity.

 

I'm sure they've learned their lesson about that but if they go the route of signing Arroyo and then another back end starter, I'll really start questioning what is going on in the front office. Not that I'm not already doing that anyways...

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Dipoto inherited a team that came off an 86 win season with a pitching staff that was well regarded to which he adds Wilson

Pujols is also added and they go on to an 89 win season even with that pitching staff falling to the ground

He adds hamilton to replace Hunter and two starter that crap the bed. 

 

So I still think they see that 89 win season where we need a couple of starters and a few other parts to get to 90+ wins.  Even more steadfast in their goal than before. 

 

It wouldn't totally surprise me to see Arte sell the team after the 2015 season one way or another. 

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I admire Arte's passion for winning but you have to think that him getting involved has killed this team. He's clearly not satisfied with the product that has been on the field the past few years but he shouldn't be interfering with what Dipoto and his guys are doing.

 

The comparisons to Jerry Jones are pretty valid at this point. 

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