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Dipoto's strategy


stormngt

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As much as Hanson's tragedy was sad, I don't think it's right to use that as the reasoning behind his crappy pitching.  That doesn't explain loss of speed.

 

Also, Burnett and Madson were both coming off surgery, so they were both a risk although Madson was the bigger risk.  My beef was they were keys to the pen being half decent and that was a huge mistake on Dipoto's part.  He totally undervalued the pen when he also knew the starting staff wasn't the best out there.

 

it's the saber way to try and cheap up the bullpen.  In theory, making value moves to shore up the pen makes sense.  But that theory relies on minor league depth to be able to step in and provide production that is equal to or slighlty less than the production you get from spending 5mil on the open market.  

 

the halos system didn't have those arms as backups so they went from potentially plus production from two guys to below replacement level in the guys that took their spots. 

 

it's been my biggest beef with Dipoto since he's arrived.  Overestimating the ability of some random minor league arm to provide reasonable production. 

 

The other thing is that just about every player JD has brought in to provide a certain level of production or value has actually provided less or even much much less.  Which to me, ties into why he still has a job and why we have seen the halos strengthen his staff with potential experts in scouting and data accumulation.  ie, he got some pretty bad info in terms of what guys like Blanton, Hanson, Madsen etc were actually worth. 

 

We'll see if the new staff that has been brought in can help him improve his assessments in players he intends to acquire. 

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Whenever people make the argument in favor of Romine they usually use defense, because he's a wizard and such talk would discredit Aybar.  Aybar's a very good defensive SS in his own right so I don't think the argument holds.  At the same time people who argue in favor of Aybar over Romine paint a picture of Romine having no bat.  This isn't true either.  Romine has hit around .280 at every stop in the minors with a solid OBP, regardless of environment.  Since power isn't his game SLC and Rancho had minimal impact on his numbers.  I'm not saying Romine would hit .280 in the majors, but .250/.320 with 15 SB wouldn't be out of the ordinary.  

 

Essentially what I think we're looking at with Romine: .250/.320 20 DB 15 SB and great defense.

Essentially what I think we're looking at with Aybar: .280/.320 30 DB 10 HR 20 SB and solid defense. 

 

So the difference between the two is .30 points batting average, 10 more doubles 10 more HR's, 5 SB with a slight difference in defensive abilities.  This isn't a small difference, it's considerable to say the least.  Essentially it's the difference between Mike Trout and Shin-Soo Choo.  The difference between an MVP and a good player. 

 

This isn't to say Aybar can't be traded.  It's to say that whatever pitcher we get in return has to be so good that he makes up that difference between him and an average #3/4 SP.  This means that whatever pitcher the Angels get in return for Aybar has to be a solid #2 starter.  No team will deal the Angels a solid #2 starter (think C.J. Wilson) in return for Aybar.  It just won't happen so the argument seems pointless. 

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Depth is an issue IP, but I think Dipoto is trying to address that when he signs guys like Volstad. The depth problem is partly the fault of Tony Reagins and partly Dipoto's fault for practically giving away Roach, Hellweg and Pena.

I think we'll all be pleasantly surprised by Salas. His bad seasons are on par with an average season from Jepsen I'd say. He's had success in the major leagues before and was particularly dominant in the PCL last year, which isn't an easy thing to do. Both he and Rasmus may become steady, solid middle relievers, which is actually how I picture DDLR, though last season he was forced into 8th inning work. I think they're all well suited for the 7th inning.

As for the pitching staff, in order to avoid "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" (that was a brilliant use of the term by the way) the Angels will not only need quality innings, they'll need guys that aren't going to get hurt. I think you can count on Richards and Wilson for 180+ innings next season. Weaver's a wild card for me, with the degradation of stuff and the possibility of injury as the result of how many miles have been logged on that arm.

Whoever the Angels sign, they need to not only post ERA's likely under 4, they'll also need to stay in the rotation. Guys like that do not come cheap, via trade or free agency.

I don't agree that he practically gave away Roach. When you receive cost controlled late innnings reliever for him, then you didn't give him away. Especially when that reliever has been very effective for you.

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it's the saber way to try and cheap up the bullpen.  In theory, making value moves to shore up the pen makes sense.  But that theory relies on minor league depth to be able to step in and provide production that is equal to or slighlty less than the production you get from spending 5mil on the open market.  

 

the halos system didn't have those arms as backups so they went from potentially plus production from two guys to below replacement level in the guys that took their spots. 

 

it's been my biggest beef with Dipoto since he's arrived.  Overestimating the ability of some random minor league arm to provide reasonable production. 

 

The other thing is that just about every player JD has brought in to provide a certain level of production or value has actually provided less or even much much less.  Which to me, ties into why he still has a job and why we have seen the halos strengthen his staff with potential experts in scouting and data accumulation.  ie, he got some pretty bad info in terms of what guys like Blanton, Hanson, Madsen etc were actually worth. 

 

We'll see if the new staff that has been brought in can help him improve his assessments in players he intends to acquire. 

 

This is where I am too -- JD has talked up Scott Servais as this tremendous judge of talent and yet -- he's not come close to picking a Eckstein off the discard pile.  Bill Stoneman trades Kimera Bartee for Chone Figgins, JD trades Randal Grichuk for Mexijepsen.  People keep trying to say it's not his fault because the system was barren -- but that holds no water.  There are plenty of 6 year minor FA starters available every offseason -- any of which could have been signed and converted to the pen.  Brendan Donnelley was in independent ball.  Mike Fyhrie, Lou Pote, were both 6th year FAs.  Al Levine was picked up off waivers, as was Ben Weber had come back from Taiwan for God's sake -- ALL of them managed to be useful players at nearly ZERO cost.

 

This winter Wilking Rodriguez somehow managed to go from the Rays to the Yankees -- he's still only 23 years old, still hits the mid to upper 90s and is still unable to stay healthy as a SP.   Dude is the poster boy for failed hopes due to injuries but he's the perfect candidate to make the switch to the pen and do well.   Career K/9 over 8.  Career BB/9 under 3.0.  Career HR/9 rate under 1.0 - all of which would likely improve if he were coming ouf of the pen.   For the life of me I can't figure out how we can seemingly spot every 28 year old failed reliever available but not see the young failed SP in the minors.

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I don't agree that he practically gave away Roach. When you receive cost controlled late innnings reliever for him, then you didn't give him away. Especially when that reliever has been very effective for you.

 

For a saber minded GM -- that was a rather significant overpay.   He gave away a cost controlled position player, and a minor league SP with upside for a RP with a WHIP over 1.2 and a walk rate over 4.4.   Frieri had done better since coming to Anaheim, but he's only closing due to a lack of better options.

Sadly, it's still one of his better moves.

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He did land J.B. Shuck off the trash heap, so at least he was successful there.  I really thought Chris Nelson was an astute pick up as well given his past production but after watching him it's pretty clear he's replacement level at best.  I liked the Mark Lowe addition last year, even though it didn't work out. 

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Yeah -- J.B. Shuck is a decent find -- still pales when compared to Eck and Fig.  But you're right -- he deserves credit for picking him off the discard pile.

 

As far as Lowe goes -- given our bullpen woes, spending 1 mil or whatever they did on him wasn't a bad move regardless of how it worked out.  To be honest, that's sort of my beef.  He should have made a few of those deals once he missed the boat on the 6th year FAs.

 

140 Million dollar payroll and Jb Shuck stands out as one of his better moves.   Let that sink in.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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There was a cost there -- I'm referring more to finding value for net zeros.   Kimera Bartee was picked up off waivers and packaged for Figgins.   Even though it was a trade, the Angels gave up nothing.

 

Good point.  In fact, I think Geltz will still be a solid reliever.  The Rays will be happy with him.  I'm shocked he didn't get a shot last year considering his great year for Durham.

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I wouldn't say he outperformed expectations at all. Are you feeling comfortable with him closing in 2014?

He is far from elite but we could do worse. I guess I'd rather have him on a budget than have a $10-12 million closer, unless of course that closer was lights out. Also I believe that unless you have very good stuff then closing games is a bit of a learned skill that you develop over years. Part of the reason for my response is a post that Scotty deleted that said when Frieri was acquired he was a middle reliever that gave up a lot of homers.

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Dipoto never gets any blame for anything. Nothing sticks to Teflon Jerry.

I think we give him plenty of blame. Just because Arte hasn't fired him doesn't mean he gets no blame. I actually think that part of the reson he hasn't been fired is because Arte realized that he himself was part of the problem. I could totally be wrong but that's my assumption. By the way Teflon Jerry seems like an AO nickname.

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He is far from elite but we could do worse. I guess I'd rather have him on a budget than have a $10-12 million closer, unless of course that closer was lights out. Also I believe that unless you have very good stuff then closing games is a bit of a learned skill that you develop over years. Part of the reason for my response is a post that Scotty deleted that said when Frieri was acquired he was a middle reliever that gave up a lot of homers.

 

For me "we could do worse" is not a glowing endorsement.  Nor is it the stamp of a successful organization.  Fiere is fine, he is certainly not one of Dipoto's bad moves, but having to use him as one of your bigger successes is not so great.

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For a saber minded GM -- that was a rather significant overpay. He gave away a cost controlled position player, and a minor league SP with upside for a RP with a WHIP over 1.2 and a walk rate over 4.4. Frieri had done better since coming to Anaheim, but he's only closing due to a lack of better options.

Sadly, it's still one of his better moves.

And when Frieri struggles, he makes even Jepsen look like an All-Star. Not what you want from a closer

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For me "we could do worse" is not a glowing endorsement. Nor is it the stamp of a successful organization. Fiere is fine, he is certainly not one of Dipoto's bad moves, but having to use him as one of your bigger successes is not so great.

No it's tough to give a ringing endorsement to someone in that role that thus far in his career has been inconsistent. I'll just say this, Frieri isn't this teams problem. It's the pitchers that lead up to him that have really shit the bed. I don't know what his save percent was but I'm guessing it was around league average.

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Doc, you are correct that it's unfair to label Romine as a Mathis like hitter in scattered at bats in his career so far.

I'm on board for him getting 100 starts or so at 3B and SS but I'm still hesitant to say I like him as a starter. I think he could put up a 80 wRC+ and a line somewhere near .270/.320/.340 which isn't too far off from Aybar.

My biggest issue with it is we would be counting on another question mark, not knowing exactly what we will get. I love Romine's defense and he had a pretty decent September last year that I think he deserves a good amount of games next year but I feel more comfortable with Aybar at this point.

Unless we fail big time and miss on Hughes, Tanaka, Garza, then I think we should keep Aybar at least for next year, then go from there.

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Frieri is what he is. 

 

He's still a valuable guy that many other teams would probably love to use in the 7th or 8th inning. Our best hope is that Morin can become the closer we are looking for or we are looking at Frieri as the full time closer or we have a closer by committee. 

 

His issue is the lack of a 3rd or even a 2nd pitch. His fastball is very well above average but his slider was bad last year. When you throw a fastball 87% of the time like he did last year, you're going to run into trouble. That is clear when you see his HR/9 rate jump from 0.43 in 2011 to 1.44 last year. 

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