Dipoto's strategy

[mtangelsfan]

Gambling is great when you are already in a position of strength, which the Angels are not.

[Second Base]

I hear what you are saying, but I tend to disagree with how aggressive he's been the last couple of years on some of the lesser players he's moved on. 

 

Going hard and fast for your 1st or 2nd option is fine, but sometimes you need to let the market develop. 

 

If you want an Albert Pujols, then make your move. 

 

If you are trading Bourjos and the market isn't what you anticipated, is it a big deal to wait a bit?

If you are looking for a 5th starter, is it necessary to move fast on Joe Blanton? 

 

Some of his moves seem like they'd be performed when you have fewer choices or if it's late in the game.

 

I remember how aggressive he was with C.J. Wilson and loved it.  I just think that's what Dipoto is by nature.  He's aggressive and when things don't work out he doesn't cut his losses, he tries to find some creative way to fill the need.  I think that's what we saw with Blanton.

 

As far as the Bourjos trade goes, there's no indication this isn't what Jerry was looking for.  3B was on his list to improve over the offseason as was reliever.  I think Jerry saw the opportunity to do both and went for it.  As we've beaten to death already, many of us (including me), wouldn't have made that trade.  But it seems clear as day that Dipoto saw this as a unique opportunity and took it and you can't fault him for that. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

I don't think Jerry has "a" strategy or "a" plan. I think he has twenty scenarios/options, and he will keep going down the list trying each one. It is impossible to have a strategy that includes Tanaka, for example, when nobody even knows if he will get posted.

 

He almost has to have multiple plans, with contingencies based upon whether this acquisition or that happens or not. You can have general goals going into the offseason, but you have to be flexible about how you get there.

[Docwaukee]

I remember how aggressive he was with C.J. Wilson and loved it.  I just think that's what Dipoto is by nature.  He's aggressive and when things don't work out he doesn't cut his losses, he tries to find some creative way to fill the need.  I think that's what we saw with Blanton.

 

As far as the Bourjos trade goes, there's no indication this isn't what Jerry was looking for.  3B was on his list to improve over the offseason as was reliever.  I think Jerry saw the opportunity to do both and went for it.  As we've beaten to death already, many of us (including me), wouldn't have made that trade.  But it seems clear as day that Dipoto saw this as a unique opportunity and took it and you can't fault him for that. 

 

 

yah, I've got no problem with the strong move for CJ.  That's was a high priority need.   

 

Blanton type guys are a dime a dozen.  Always redundant in the market. 

 

Getting an upgrade for 3b was a potential need, but you haven't even been to the winter meeting and you've already used one of your chips for a tertiary need. 

 

My guess is that Jerry may not differentiate between pitching vs. offense as much as he does net value to the starting 2014 club.  That's fine, I just think it's very presumptive to assume that Bourjos potential value is maxed out in the middle of november.  It's a risk in that you may miss out on David Freese, and it certainly up to him to determine the benefit of obtaining Freese vs. holding onto Bourjos in hopes that his value goes up, but to me, it's worth the risk.  If Freese is available at the end of the offseason and you still have Pete AND you've got 2 SP then I'd be a little more on board. 

[arch stanton]

yah, I've got no problem with the strong move for CJ.  That's was a high priority need.   

 

Blanton type guys are a dime a dozen.  Always redundant in the market. 

 

Getting an upgrade for 3b was a potential need, but you haven't even been to the winter meeting and you've already used one of your chips for a tertiary need. 

 

My guess is that Jerry may not differentiate between pitching vs. offense as much as he does net value to the starting 2014 club.  That's fine, I just think it's very presumptive to assume that Bourjos potential value is maxed out in the middle of november.  It's a risk in that you may miss out on David Freese, and it certainly up to him to determine the benefit of obtaining Freese vs. holding onto Bourjos in hopes that his value goes up, but to me, it's worth the risk.  If Freese is available at the end of the offseason and you still have Pete AND you've got 2 SP then I'd be a little more on board. 

I would disagree that 3rd base was a tertiary need given that before they could trade either Aybar or Kendrick without killing the offense it needed to be addressed.

Edited November 30, 2013 by arch stanton

[Docwaukee]

I would disagree that 3rd base was a tertiary need given that before they could trade either Aybar or Kendrick without killing the offense it needed to be addressed.

trading Aybar would kill our offense? 

 

A net upgrade in value overall needs to be addressed.  Peter could help do that via trade. 

 

I am not saying that it ultimately wasn't the best option, and I am willing to wait and see, but are we absolutely sure that the inclusion of Pete in a trade couldn't help maximize value in other areas?  Is sometime in the middle of November enough time to be confident in that?  Prior to the winter meetings JD is convinced that the best net value is David Freese. 

 

Granted, I have zero idea what is happening and its arrogant of me to think that I know more than they do so I could be completely off base.  It just seems odd to me that he couldn't have been part of a bigger piece of the puzzle to address run prevention.  A couple of prospects that could be used in trade or made others expendable?  A team that can't find what they need elsewhere and they come knocking? 

 

Our hopes for a good team were riding on rebound seasons from Hamilton and Pujols and using our trade chips to improve our pitching staff.  Now they are reliant on yet another player rebounding with one less chip to improve run prevention. 

[tennischmp]

I would disagree that 3rd base was a tertiary need given that before they could trade either Aybar or Kendrick without killing the offense it needed to be addressed.

3B wasn't a need at all in the big scheme of things. The offense was good enough even with Jimenez at 3B who would have provided good D.

[Second Base]

I agree with you that November probably wasn't maxing out Bourjos' value, but for all we know we could've been battling other teams for Freese and this needed to spend Bourjos. Lots of other teams out there with more prospects than us.

[Docwaukee]

I agree with you that November probably wasn't maxing out Bourjos' value, but for all we know we could've been battling other teams for Freese and this needed to spend Bourjos. Lots of other teams out there with more prospects than us.

part of it is that I am still having a problem accepting that Bourjos value wasn't near where we thought. 

 

People don't trade young pitching unless you are getting a premium player or pitcher in return.  We have a couple of nice position players to trade.  It seems like market value on the pitching side for such is a level down from that.  So instead of a good pitcher, we could get a decent one. 

 

Maybe it's time to focus on a couple of mediocre FA starters and hope they end up better than expected. 

 

Who knows. 

 

Honestly, we could add Phil Hughes and Bronson Arroyo and end up with 90 wins because of how awful people performed last year. 

 

We really need Tanaka. 

[Inside Pitch]

3B wasn't a need at all in the big scheme of things. The offense was good enough even with Jimenez at 3B who would have provided good D.

 

I currently have a problem thinking that the guy who traded a 3B for a no glove IFer only to then trade for a 3B to replace the one he traded away is capable of mounting any sort of strategy at all...    Again, JD talks a fair game, talks up run prevention, talks up the importance of controlling counts, of limiting base-runners, etc. etc., then goes out and adds people who do the opposite.  

 

I'm going to wait for him to make some moves that fall in line with that he claims are his base ideologies before I buy into the theory he's got some master strategy going.   For most of his tenure as GM he seems to be throwing shit at a wall to see what sticks.  

[arch stanton]

3B wasn't a need at all in the big scheme of things. The offense was good enough even with Jimenez at 3B who would have provided good D.

Not if they trade Kendrick. Freese's bat essentially replaces it.

[arch stanton]

trading Aybar would kill our offense? 

 

A net upgrade in value overall needs to be addressed.  Peter could help do that via trade. 

 

I am not saying that it ultimately wasn't the best option, and I am willing to wait and see, but are we absolutely sure that the inclusion of Pete in a trade couldn't help maximize value in other areas?  Is sometime in the middle of November enough time to be confident in that?  Prior to the winter meetings JD is convinced that the best net value is David Freese. 

 

Granted, I have zero idea what is happening and its arrogant of me to think that I know more than they do so I could be completely off base.  It just seems odd to me that he couldn't have been part of a bigger piece of the puzzle to address run prevention.  A couple of prospects that could be used in trade or made others expendable?  A team that can't find what they need elsewhere and they come knocking? 

 

Our hopes for a good team were riding on rebound seasons from Hamilton and Pujols and using our trade chips to improve our pitching staff.  Now they are reliant on yet another player rebounding with one less chip to improve run prevention. 

I'm referring more to Kendrick than Aybar because I really don't think we lose much with Romine at SS. I understand people believing that Bourjos was a chip best played for a pitcher but I think strengthening the IF offensive capabilities increases flexibility in making other deals assuming anyone actually is willing to trade a solid SP for position players.

 

I also believe that going into the season with either Bourjos or Calhoun on the bench 80% of the time would be tossing value out the window. There are still plenty of ways to add pitching 

[Angel Oracle]

Dipoto could have signed Blanton in February for a third of the price.

Reacting too quickly can be a problem too.

I don't have a lot of faith in Salas and his NL 4.00+ ERA the past 2 seasons.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Angel Oracle]

Not if they trade Kendrick. Freese's bat essentially replaces it.

Have to hope for Lindsey to be able to skip AAA. I don't have much faith in Green at 2B defensively. Kendrick >>>>>>>> Green defensively.

[Stradling]

I'm referring more to Kendrick than Aybar because I really don't think we lose much with Romine at SS. I understand people believing that Bourjos was a chip best played for a pitcher but I think strengthening the IF offensive capabilities increases flexibility in making other deals assuming anyone actually is willing to trade a solid SP for position players.

I also believe that going into the season with either Bourjos or Calhoun on the bench 80% of the time would be tossing value out the window. There are still plenty of ways to add pitching

This is a really good post.

[Stradling]

I would prefer to trade Aybar because Romine's defense could almost make up for Freese's D if he is below league average again.

[Second Base]

 

 

My guess is that Jerry may not differentiate between pitching vs. offense as much as he does net value to the starting 2014 club.  That's fine, I just think it's very presumptive to assume that Bourjos potential value is maxed out in the middle of november.  It's a risk in that you may miss out on David Freese, and it certainly up to him to determine the benefit of obtaining Freese vs. holding onto Bourjos in hopes that his value goes up, but to me, it's worth the risk.  If Freese is available at the end of the offseason and you still have Pete AND you've got 2 SP then I'd be a little more on board. 

 

I really think you brought up an important point, which was that Jerry sees less offense vs defense and more net value.  I think a perfect example of this is last season.  The Angels were coming off an 87 win season in which they tanked at the very end so they were reasonably a 90 win team.  Haren and Santana weren't very good at all.  He signed Josh Hamilton which he figured would help on the offensive end and signed Blanton and traded for Hanson because he assumed they couldn't be much worse that Haren and Santana in 2012.  Combining those moves, along with Burnett and Madson in the bullpen, it really seemed like a sure thing this ball club would win 90+ games. 

 

Things went south in a big way and everyone faulted Dipoto for it, which is fair, but I think most would've agreed that before the season started, the Angels team he designed had to be a favorite to win the AL West.  Pujols' foot fell off, Hamilton forgot how to swing the bat, Madson's arm was never reattahed, Burnett's arm detached, Joe Blanton was a pile of awful (as many predicted), Weaver broke his arm and Tommy Hanson suffered a terrible family tragedy.  

 

It's really hard to plan for that kind of stuff.  So when Jerry's planning the 2014 ball club and uses net value, I hope he plans for Pujols and Hamilton being awful and Weaver's continued regression and over-compensates in a manner that creates a 100-win ball club.  

[mtangelsfan]

As much as Hanson's tragedy was sad, I don't think it's right to use that as the reasoning behind his crappy pitching.  That doesn't explain loss of speed.

 

Also, Burnett and Madson were both coming off surgery, so they were both a risk although Madson was the bigger risk.  My beef was they were keys to the pen being half decent and that was a huge mistake on Dipoto's part.  He totally undervalued the pen when he also knew the starting staff wasn't the best out there.

[Brent Maguire]

I would prefer to trade Aybar because Romine's defense could almost make up for Freese's D if he is below league average again.

Counting on Romine to be a full time starter isn't smart IMO. If we found a platoon partner who could hit a little better, I would feel better. 

 

A guy with a career 64 wRC+ should not be counted on as a starter for a team with playoff aspirations. 

[Stradling]

Normally I would agree but with offense at every other position we could go with a defensive specialist at SS.

[Brent Maguire]

I just don't see Aybar as a huge problem. He's well worth what he's getting paid and he can easily rebound next year to be a 3 win player. 

 

I like Romine as a utility guy/defensive specialist but 150+ starts from Romine would spell trouble. 

[Stradling]

No Aybar isn't the problem, but he is an asset, an asset that you could use to improve the rotation.

[Inside Pitch]

 

 

Things went south in a big way and everyone faulted Dipoto for it, which is fair, but I think most would've agreed that before the season started, the Angels team he designed had to be a favorite to win the AL West.  Pujols' foot fell off, Hamilton forgot how to swing the bat, Madson's arm was never reattahed, Burnett's arm detached, Joe Blanton was a pile of awful (as many predicted), Weaver broke his arm and Tommy Hanson suffered a terrible family tragedy.  

 

It's really hard to plan for that kind of stuff.  So when Jerry's planning the 2014 ball club and uses net value, I hope he plans for Pujols and Hamilton being awful and Weaver's continued regression and over-compensates in a manner that creates a 100-win ball club

 

 

The 2013 Angels were on paper a good team, they projected well, the problem is they had zero depth and as a result no margin for error.  Signing two relievers who couldn't throw and calling it mission accomplished in the pen was beyond ignorant - even more so when you consider he traded a reliever for a guy who even in his best seasons was a 5 inning pitcher.   

 

I never understood the Hamilton signing but neither did I bitch about it, props to Halo Magic for coming closer to his real numbers than anyone else on this board.  I was more shocked they went there than anything else, particularly after they parted ways with Hunter.   The guy I wanted signed as a number 5 was Carlos Villanueva -- who ultimately signed for 2 years at 5 mil and put up 97 ERA+ allowed fewer hits than IP, a K/W rate of beter than 2.5 and a HR/9 rate of 1.0 in Wrigley.  He fit the same profile as Blanton and Hanson, only he was actually still in his prime and not an injury risk with a fading fastball.  This year I went on record as saying Hudson and Hughes were two decent buy low bets -- I still believe the team's best option is to sign a couple guys capable of putting up league average ERA's at controllable costs, but I fear those guys may be coming off the board sooner rather than later.

 

As it stands now, Smith replaces Downs, Freese replaces Callapso...  You can argue that both project to be better than the guys they are replacing which is nice but really, the depth issue is still very much in effect.  Salas is healthy so, that's good.  But if he ends up being no better than J.C. Gutierrez it's just a case of rearranging the deck chairs on Titanic.

 

Blanton and Hanson still haven't been replaced -- Vargas has been lost, and right now it seems that weakening the IF defense and team offense is the main avenue to fixing that issue.   It's very possible whatever gains could be made in obtaining an upgrade over Vargas would be lost defensively at 2B.  I'm struggling to find the "strategy" is making holes to fill holes and then repeating the process

 

It's early still but, I am really uneasy about the guy calling the shots based on his two years as GM.  I'd feel a lot better if they finally did sign a Phil Hughes and had a number 5 under control.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

Depth is an issue IP, but I think Dipoto is trying to address that when he signs guys like Volstad.  The depth problem is partly the fault of Tony Reagins and partly Dipoto's fault for practically giving away Roach, Hellweg and Pena.  

 

I think we'll all be pleasantly surprised by Salas.  His bad seasons are on par with an average season from Jepsen I'd say.  He's had success in the major leagues before and was particularly dominant in the PCL last year, which isn't an easy thing to do.  Both he and Rasmus may become steady, solid middle relievers, which is actually how I picture DDLR, though last season he was forced into 8th inning work.  I think they're all well suited for the 7th inning. 

 

As for the pitching staff, in order to avoid "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" (that was a brilliant use of the term by the way) the Angels will not only need quality innings, they'll need guys that aren't going to get hurt.  I think you can count on Richards and Wilson for 180+ innings next season.  Weaver's a wild card for me, with the degradation of stuff and the possibility of injury as the result of how many miles have been logged on that arm.  

 

Whoever the Angels sign, they need  to not only post ERA's likely under 4, they'll also need to stay in the rotation.  Guys like that do not come cheap, via trade or free agency. 

[Docwaukee]

using Romine's wRC+ for his small sample of major league at bats isn't a very fair assessment

 

his wRC+ over 7 minor league seasons is 97.  That's park adjusted so it factors the hitters environments of SLC and cal league.

 

Aybar's wRC+ is 92 over his career.  Granted, he's had some really good offensive seasons that Romine would never be able to match, but my guess is that Romine would be far more consistent because he gets on base at a much better clip than Aybar.

 

It's clear that Romine is not a good hitter and better suited to a utility role, but the offensive drop off from Aybar to him is not overly substantial and is partially made up by defense. 

 

The rump is what Aybar can get you.  The combo of Romine and whatever pitcher you get for Aybar has to be greater than the combo of Aybar and whatever FA pitcher you get instead.  If Aybar doesn't net you something considerably better than you could get on the FA market for the next three years, then you don't do it.