Is there any team that needs Tanaka...

[Torridd]

...more than us?

 

I know it doesn't make a difference in where he'll land, but it will indicate how badly we may try for him.

[Stradling]

Yes, the Yankees.

[gotbeer]

Yes, the Yankees.

 

Yup.  And the Red Sox may bid, just because the Yankees are interested.

[Brent Maguire]

Yankees absolutely need him. If they don't resign Kuroda, Ivan Nova or a declining CC would be their best starter.

Edited November 26, 2013 by Angels_Baseball

[floplag]

he will be a Yankee, or a Dodger... the rest is moot.

lets look elsewhere as far as im concered as this guy is no Darvish and wont be worth the cost

he doesnt have Darvish stuff.. he will not tanslate as well.

one thing i saw prjected him at a 3+ ERA assuming he translates in the same way Darvish did... which isnt bad, but also inst worth 100+ Million at least not to me.

basically he would be about the same as Garza or Kuroda... would you pay 100 mil for either of those guys?
sure he might do better, but thats a huge gamble

[jsnpritchett]

he will be a Yankee, or a Dodger... the rest is moot.

 

 

Pretty much my feeling.  Maybe some other team will swoop in, but I would be shocked if it's us.

[stormngt]

he will be a Yankee, or a Dodger... the rest is moot.

lets look elsewhere as far as im concered as this guy is no Darvish and wont be worth the cost

he doesnt have Darvish stuff.. he will not tanslate as well.

one thing i saw prjected him at a 3+ ERA assuming he translates in the same way Darvish did... which isnt bad, but also inst worth 100+ Million at least not to me.

basically he would be about the same as Garza or Kuroda... would you pay 100 mil for either of those guys?

sure he might do better, but thats a huge gamble

That is really not logical.  The posting bids are hidden so no one really knows what the other is bidding.  Therefore there will be no bidding war.

[Second Base]

The Angels will bid big on Tanaka if nothing deviates them from their current offseason course.  Whether they win or not, I'm not sure, but it does work in their favor that among the six big spenders (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, Angels and Dodgers) only three are expected to bid seriously because they have a need. 

 

The Yankees are still likely the favorites because money means nothing but paper to that organization, and the Dodgers obligatory yet not-serious bid will still likely be much larger than anything most teams come up with.  But the Angels are primed to go big into this race as well. 

[Cdaniel]

he will be a Yankee, or a Dodger... the rest is moot.

lets look elsewhere as far as im concered as this guy is no Darvish and wont be worth the cost

he doesnt have Darvish stuff.. he will not tanslate as well.

one thing i saw prjected him at a 3+ ERA assuming he translates in the same way Darvish did... which isnt bad, but also inst worth 100+ Million at least not to me.

basically he would be about the same as Garza or Kuroda... would you pay 100 mil for either of those guys?

sure he might do better, but thats a huge gamble

Difference being that half of that 100 plus mil won't count against the lux tax and we don't lose a draft pick. Plus he is younger than both.

[jsnpritchett]

That is really not logical.  The posting bids are hidden so no one really knows what the other is bidding.  Therefore there will be no bidding war.

 

He didn't say that there would be a bidding war.

[tdawg87]

he will be a Yankee, or a Dodger... the rest is moot.

lets look elsewhere as far as im concered as this guy is no Darvish and wont be worth the cost

he doesnt have Darvish stuff.. he will not tanslate as well.

one thing i saw prjected him at a 3+ ERA assuming he translates in the same way Darvish did... which isnt bad, but also inst worth 100+ Million at least not to me.

basically he would be about the same as Garza or Kuroda... would you pay 100 mil for either of those guys?

sure he might do better, but thats a huge gamble

The difference is Tanaka is 25 years old. A 5-6 year deal for him is much better than a 5-6 year deal for Garza.

Assuming the posting fee doesn't count towards payroll or luxury tax, Arte can bid 200 million for all I care. That is a case where "it's not my money" really is appropriate.

[floplag]

That is really not logical.  The posting bids are hidden so no one really knows what the other is bidding.  Therefore there will be no bidding war.

 

no, there wont be.. they will throw stupic numbers, since they can... and they will win.

either way the assumption is that he would cost about the same as Darvish between fee and salary... would you pay that is the question.. on the assumption that is accurate.. would you pay Darvish money or close to it for this player?

i would not

[floplag]

Difference being that half of that 100 plus mil won't count against the lux tax and we don't lose a draft pick. Plus he is younger than both.

 

but statistically, he projects to be the same player.

you are right.. we could go over the top on the posting fee but the playuer isnt going to settle for crap salary so...  

were not going to get him for the 8 or 9 mil we have left under the cap so you haveto factor that in too if your going to play the other cards.. is he worth being assessed the luxury tax penalty?

[Second Base]

I talked to someone that works for Scott Servais yesterday.  He said that Dipoto went and scouted Tanaka personally and brought a team of people with him.  They all agreed on his upside.  He also said the Angels feel comfortable that Tanaka will translate to the majors and also quoted the dreaded "intangibles" about him. 

 

The Angels are going full bore on him.  The posting bids are blind, but I think Arte will put up over 50 million. 

[Cdaniel]

but statistically, he projects to be the same player.

you are right.. we could go over the top on the posting fee but the playuer isnt going to settle for crap salary so...

were not going to get him for the 8 or 9 mil we have left under the cap so you haveto factor that in too if your going to play the other cards.. is he worth being assessed the luxury tax penalty?

If we won the bid and sign tanaka then maybe we move Aybar or HK for a SP plus prospects or just near major league ready prospects like Butler or Gray and a BP piece. Then we can sign Hughes.

Weaver

Wilson

Tanaka

Richards

Hughes

[Docwaukee]

Garza is gonna cost at least 90mil for 5 years or 18mil per for 5 years for his age 30-34yo seasons.

 

If Tanaka projects as a Garza type player, that, to me, means people are projecting him to be what Garza was, not what he will be. 

 

So you are getting Tanaka for about 120mil over 6 years or 20mil per for his age 25-30yo seasons ie his absolute peak production. 

 

Garza isn't going to be what he was when he was 27 so you aren't actually even getting peak Garza but a declining version. 

 

Tanaka is a bit of an unknown, but what's the worst he's gonna be?  A solid #4 or fringe #3? 

and what's the best he's gonna be?  A very good #2 and fringe #1?

 

Garza was a #3 during his peak, so the best you are gonna get is a solid #3 who declines to a decent #4. 

 

2mil per year and one extra year is absolutely worth the risk. 

 

It's almost the same argument that was made with CJ Wilson vs. Darvish yet now with slightly lesser players. 

[Hubs]

I don't think the Dodgers are going to be in on him. They have Kershaw, Greinke, Haren, Ryu, Billingsley, Beckett, Lee, Stripling, etc. They could bring Nolasco back who did well for them. Plus they have major pieces to trade in one of their four OF, plus Joc Pederson.

 

They need a SS/3B, and could look to move an OF for yet another young starter. If it were me, I'd sign Nolasco for far less than what Tanaka will command, remembering that you still have to extend Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez after this year. I'd then move Kemp for Kyle Seager and a pitching prospect.

 

It'd be better for them

 

The Yankees though do need Tanaka or other starters. They too though need help offensively and need to bring back Cano. After committing to Brian McCann, do they have enough room under the CBT to sign Tanaka, another starter, and Cano? Doubtful. 

 

If they went after cheaper starters, they could make it work.

[Angel Oracle]

Re Raviners: It must be nice to be deep in minors pitching.    We sure wouldn't know that feeling.

 

Just sign Tanaka and the Beard

 

Trout

Calhoun

Pujols

Hamilton

Trumbo

Kendrick

Freese

Conger/Iannetta or another 2nd catcher

Aybar

 

Weaver, Wilson, Tanaka, Richards, Williams (170 innings in 2013, solid except for July-mid August)

 

The Beard, Frieri, Smith, DDLR, Burnett, Salas, and Kohn 

 

That is probably the best team we can put together for 2014, without losing any more prospects and without losing any draft picks. 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Brent Maguire]

I think it'll be between the Angels and Yankees. As Hubs pointed out, do the Dodgers really need Tanaka? They're loaded with starters and they can bring one back if they trade one of their outfielders. 

 

Tanaka is one guy that I would be ok with giving 5+ years to this offseason. 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Angels_Baseball

[ten ocho recon scout]

I highly doubt the dodgers get him. I know last winter they went crazy money wise, but everyone keeps forgetting they also are about to break the bank on kershaw. And I think kasten is smart enough to know theur offense is about to get very old and expensive (yes, worse than ours).

The kershaw deal alone is going to put them closer to 300 milli on than 200 million....and afterwards, they will have him and grienke for the next four years (at least) costing roughly 50 million. Kemp, agon, crawford and ethier all have at least another 4 years left, and none are getting younger or cheaper.

I just really think they're gonna pass on him.

[Chuck]

I think it will be between the Yankees and Angels. 

[Second Base]

Yanks, Angels, Cubs and some mystery team like the Rockies.

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

No Agreement Yet Between MLB, NPB On Posting System

By Charlie Wilmoth [November 26 at 4:35pm CST]

4:35pm: Today's meetings ended without an agreement on a new posting system, and the two sides are likely to take a break until after Thanksgiving, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

 

TUESDAY, 12:56pm: Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweets that MLB and NPB officials are meeting today to discuss the new posting system. Baseball America's Ben Badler adds that teams are operating under the assumption that an agreement will be reached, and Tanaka will be available (Twitter link). Badler feels some news will be announced in the near future.

[Brent Maguire]

Without Tanaka, this FA pitching class would look awful.

[Hubs]

I thought the Angels should non-tender Williams, but now I'm thinking they should keep him around as a fifth starter insurance, just in case they win the Tanaka bidding. That way they only need trade one player for a starter and don't need to go sign two. I'd only like to see one of Kendrick and/or Trumbo dealt this year, though I expect both to be dealt by the start of the 2015 season.