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MLB Trade Rumors: Breaking down the Joe Smith signing


jsnpritchett

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/angels-sign-joe-smith.html

 

 

Their conclusion:

 

"If ERA alone doesn't convince you Smith is a top setup man, then it's hard to find a particular standout skill he displayed in 2013.  He's not a strikeout guy, he doesn't have great control (especially versus left-handed hitters), and his groundball rate and BABIP weren't anything special this year.  His ERA was low because he stranded 86% of his baserunners.  The Angels probably don't have a reason to expect that to be repeated, so they're left with a guy whose only above average skill might be inducing groundballs from right-handed hitters.  They didn't need to spend $15.75MM to find a guy who can do that, with Matt Albers and Jamey Wright also on the free agent market.  That's not to suggest Albers and Wright are as good as Smith, but with limited payroll flexibility and a need for two starting pitchers, this signing was a questionable allocation of resources for the Halos"

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His K rate and BB rate are perfectly fine. Of course he is overpaid but what the hell else were they supposed to do? If Boston signed him I'm sure it would be lauded.

 

tdawg I know you have been pining for Smith all season but a career 7.39 K/9 rate for a reliever (in comparison C.J. Wilson has a 8.00 K/9 as a starter) is not impressive.

 

I'll wait to pass judgement though. He has a good track record the last 3 seasons although in 2011 and 2012 he had inflated BABIP numbers and in 2013 his strand rate (as the article mentioned) was unusually high.

 

There are probably other factors we cannot see in his ability out of the stretch, holding runners, etc. that Dipoto found appealing. I do like Smith in the set up role and I think he might even close when we are in Arlington where a groundball specialist like Smith would keep the ball on the ground more often.

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Apparently the Johnny Peralta contract wasn't an overpay according to MLBtraderumors. Lol, we'll see when he goes back to hitting .250 w/ 12 homers and subpar defense

 

The interesting thing about that signing is what it means for possible trade scenarios involving Aybar.

 

If a team needs a shortstop now they will either have to sign Drew at an even higher amount than Peralta or they will look around in trade. It would not surprise me to see Aybar moved to the Mets for instance as they may want to stay out of the Drew market.

 

3 years of Aybar: $25,500,000.00

5 years of Drew: $60,000,000.00 + (or 4 years $50 million or 6 years $70 million, whatever)

 

A small market team would really look at Aybar as a good option if they need a SS.

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My only question with the Mets would be does moving long term (presumably pitching) assets for really make sense for their window to compete?

I suppose perhaps on the back half or so of Aybar's deal maybe, but as it stands now they're more than an Erick Aybar away from contending.

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