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Article on Peter Gammons' site


405z06

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Didn't see this anywhere yet, sorry if a dupe. This is a depressing read to start a Sunday morning:

Cardinals, Angels, and Trying to Get Better

On the surface, the trade that sent Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk to the Cardinals and David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels looks like two teams trying to turn areas of depth into players that can fill holes in areas of weakness. At the trade’s most basic level, that is certainly the case but it also reflects the serious differences between the two organizations and how they have approached the last several seasons.

Full story link: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/cardinals-angels-and-trying-to-get-better/

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This quote from Dipoto - â€œ[Freese] really knows how to drive in important runs. That’s something that really fits into our lineup" - is enough to drive me crazy.  First, it's bullshit.  Second, even if it was true and quantifiable, all runs are important.  Third, it's bullshit.  Fourth, he's talking about Freese from two years ago, and that Freese is gone.  Fifth, did I mention it was bullshit?

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This quote from Dipoto - “[Freese] really knows how to drive in important runs. That’s something that really fits into our lineup" - is enough to drive me crazy. First, it's bullshit. Second, even if it was true and quantifiable, all runs are important. Third, it's bullshit. Fourth, he's talking about Freese from two years ago, and that Freese is gone. Fifth, did I mention it was bullshit?

And sixth you're making a gross assumption that that the Freese from 2 years ago is gone. Also, some players are definitely more clutch than others.

So yeah, your post is filled with a bunch of BS.

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Freese, on the other hand, is trending in the wrong direction.

Freese is a below average baserunner and had a rough defensive season as well

Depressing read for sure...

I understand that no one like the trade because we could have done this or should have done that, but a quick question. Why is everyone saying he is trending downward or he's on the wrong side of 30? I understand that he is 30 and will be on opening day, but really think about it this isn't a huge financial commitment and he could easily be an effective 3rd baseman for the next five years. Also, since when, in baseball, is one year a trend? He had his best year two years ago, then had a poor year, how is that trending downward? I know in my mind I'm trying to look at the positives in this trade, but those two things are being blown out of proportion.

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Same. Now get to work and provide me some facts or STFU.

 

For some light reading, Hollywood. Clutch has only been a stat on Fangraphs since 2008.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/get-to-know-clutch/

 

Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.

 

How it’s calculated: WPA / pLI – WPA/LI

 

Why you should care: Unlike tradition clutch statistics (close & late), Clutch is a much more comprehensive statistic taking into account all situations that may or may not have been high leverage. Additionally, instead of comparing a player to the rest of the field, it compares a player to himself. A player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered Clutch.

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the whole problem with "clutch" is that it inherently assumes that all runs are not created equal.   That runs in the later innings somehow help teams more and are actually "worth" more than runs in the first inning.   And it's just simply not true.  A single run is still worth just one in the 1st,2nd,3rd, or 9th.   There's no "triple word score" in the 8th inning that players can capitalize on.

 

A batter hits an RBI single in the 9th inning to make the score 3-2 and give his team the lead.   He is claimed as the "hero" of the game and his clutchiness in lauded upon by messageboards all over the world.    What about the guy that hit the two run homer back in the 2nd inning?   Where's his love?   Take his at bat away and they still lose the game, and the 9th inning RBI is meaningless.

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Its just not a good trade. Taking the emotion out of it, the Cardinals traded older, more expensive question marks for younger, cheaper question marks with more upside and potential. Bourjos, despite his tendency to hack, was quite possibly the best defensive CF in the game. Grichuck struggled at AA but was young and still a solid prospect. Even if the rationale is to open a spot for Borenstein, you need to find a better deal then this to include him in. Freeze has never been great or elite in either hitting, fielding or base running and now he's older, more expensive and has back and ankle issues. Salas was good 2 seasons ago and now has the appearance of one of our BP cast-offs. Are we expecting Butcher to fix him? Really?

Cards won this deal and further illustrates why they contend every season and we're struggling to avoid a 5 season drought

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To me, clutch is a visual thing that can't be measured by numbers. When watching a game, and it's in the bottom of the 8th, and someone hits a 2 out double off the wall to drive in two and take the lead, I consider that to be a clutch hit. There is no pressure in the 2nd inning to hit a 2 run homer. It may be clutch in retrospect, but in that moment, it was just a regular AB.

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To me, clutch is a visual thing that can't be measured by numbers. When watching a game, and it's in the bottom of the 8th, and someone hits a 2 out double off the wall to drive in two and take the lead, I consider that to be a clutch hit. There is no pressure in the 2nd inning to hit a 2 run homer. It may be clutch in retrospect, but in that moment, it was just a regular AB.

 

 

I agree with this.

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Same. Now get to work and provide me some facts or STFU.

 

You are going to get the basic Saber argument that clutch is non existent and then protection is non existent and then finally RBIs are a false stat. Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

Not that I think Freese is Mr.Clutch aka Derek Jeter but for a career with RISP his slash line is .290/.374/.441/.815.

 

In comparison other Angels

 

Pujols  .334/.468/.632/.1.100

Trout  .316/.415/.535/.950

Hamilton .295/.369/.511/.880

Iannetta  .253/.401/.447/.848

Trumbo .252/.303/.478/.782

Kendrick  .285/.337/.408/.745

Callapso .270/.337/.397/.734

Shuck  .296/.301/.386/.697

Aybar  .270/.301/.386/.687

Bourjos   .219/.288/.343/.631

 

The Angels let go our oft injured CF that was least likely to drive in a run for Freese that is head and shoulders above Callaspo and out performs Trumbo and Kendrick. He is no Pujols or Trout but he is the best replacement RISP hitter for 3rd base the Angels have had since Glaus.

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This quote from Dipoto - â€œ[Freese] really knows how to drive in important runs. That’s something that really fits into our lineup" - is enough to drive me crazy.  First, it's bullshit.  Second, even if it was true and quantifiable, all runs are important.  Third, it's bullshit.  Fourth, he's talking about Freese from two years ago, and that Freese is gone.  Fifth, did I mention it was bullshit?

 

Ya, that's a nonsense quote. And especially disheartening to get from a guy who came with the reputation as an advanced stats guy(at least to some extent).

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Ya, that's a nonsense quote. And especially disheartening to get from a guy who came with the reputation as an advanced stats guy(at least to some extent).

But once again these quotes are for the average fan. If he went into full stat geek talk very few people would get it.

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Oh and for those that argue high leverage situations trump all then you have short memories how even non leveraged scoring can turn the tide in a crucial game even when that run scoring hit did not result in tying or taking the lead.

 

I present as evidence Game 6 of the 2002 World Series elimination game in the bottom of the 7th and Angels down 5 to zero two men on and one out. This is late but not close. The Angels were still 2 runs behind but you would have to say that Spezio was clutch. Or not, if you have no clue what that word really means.

 

dd8UkujS.jpg

 

Was he clutch his entire career? Not really but for that moment in time he had the biggest brass balls of any player on the field.

Edited by Eric Notti
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