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Olney: Expect Angels to be active in trade market


jsnpritchett

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http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/3859

 

Some highlights, since this is an Insider piece:

 

"Trumbo’s trade value appears to be diminished by age (he turns 28 in January), his rising salary -- he’ll be eligible for arbitration this winter -- as well as questions about where he can play and his on-base percentage. 

2011: .291
2012: .317
2013: .294

To put that into perspective, among sluggers: Dan Uggla’s on-base percentage was .309 last season, and Adam Dunn was at .320.

Trumbo mashed 34 homers last season, and given that he’ll make something in the range of $5 million next season, there is value in that. But it appears unlikely that any team would give up a high-end young starter for Trumbo.

Kendrick is 30 and owed $18.9 million over the next two seasons, and Bourjos is an elite defensive outfielder who has been hurt a lot. Iannetta is owed $10.5 million for 2014 and 2015.

Rival executives view them as middling pieces, and given that, the Angels could probably get middling return."

 

Options that he then goes on to mention include Kyle Kendrick, Rick Porcello, Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Charlie Morton, Trevor Cahill, and...John Lackey:

 

"An intriguing option that is a match in so many ways. Because of a clause in his contract that protected Boston against the possibility of a serious elbow injury -- won that forced him to miss the 2012 season -- he’ll make just $16 million over the next two seasons, making him affordable -- and he’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career. The Angels know him well.

But are the Angels’ pieces attractive to the Red Sox? Iannetta would fill their need at catcher, but there are doubts about his defense. Kendrick might be an interesting possibility at first base, if Mike Napoli signs with Texas."

 

 

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The issue with our players is they all have some flaws, but all have some valuable attributes.  It depends on what other teams value.  If a team desperately needs power and can overlook a low OBP, then a package from Trumbo may be greater.  If a team needs some offense value out of a catcher spot, Iannetta has value due to his high OBP.  If a team needs terrific speed and defense without guaranteed hitting performance, Bourjos has value. 

 

From afar, our players are viewed as flawed, but all it takes is a team that needs 35 HRs or flawless CF defense to get more value than what others perceive. 

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http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/3859

 

Some highlights, since this is an Insider piece:

 

"Trumbo’s trade value appears to be diminished by age (he turns 28 in January), his rising salary -- he’ll be eligible for arbitration this winter -- as well as questions about where he can play and his on-base percentage. 

2011: .291

2012: .317

2013: .294

To put that into perspective, among sluggers: Dan Uggla’s on-base percentage was .309 last season, and Adam Dunn was at .320.

Trumbo mashed 34 homers last season, and given that he’ll make something in the range of $5 million next season, there is value in that. But it appears unlikely that any team would give up a high-end young starter for Trumbo.

Kendrick is 30 and owed $18.9 million over the next two seasons, and Bourjos is an elite defensive outfielder who has been hurt a lot. Iannetta is owed $10.5 million for 2014 and 2015.

Rival executives view them as middling pieces, and given that, the Angels could probably get middling return."

 

Options that he then goes on to mention include Kyle Kendrick, Rick Porcello, Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Charlie Morton, Trevor Cahill, and...John Lackey:

 

"An intriguing option that is a match in so many ways. Because of a clause in his contract that protected Boston against the possibility of a serious elbow injury -- won that forced him to miss the 2012 season -- he’ll make just $16 million over the next two seasons, making him affordable -- and he’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career. The Angels know him well.

But are the Angels’ pieces attractive to the Red Sox? Iannetta would fill their need at catcher, but there are doubts about his defense. Kendrick might be an interesting possibility at first base, if Mike Napoli signs with Texas."

 

Not sure I agree with this. There are still plenty of GM's who will see more value in his HR and RBI ability than his OBP and "Age" (since when is being 28 an age issue?). He isn't going to net a great young pitcher on his own but as the centerpiece of a package? Absolutely.

 

Also Kendrick will likely be seen as a cheaper option to Cano. Granted, Kendrick isn't even remotely as good as Cano is but he will also be making a third of his yearly salary (18.9 million over 2 years for a 30 year old 2Bman who has averaged 3.04 WAR over the last 5 years is not an issue like Olney seems to be implying).

 

Bourjos and Iannetta likely won't net anything valuable on their own this offseason, but they are both valuable pieces that could be part of a bigger trade.

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I think these guys all have more value that Olney seems to think.  Kendrick is a very good second baseman, under a cheap contract for two years.  Same with Aybar.  Ianetta, despite his flaws, is relatively comparable to Carlos Ruiz, and look at what he just signed for. 

 

It would actually seem Trumbo would have the least trade value of the bunch, but again, there are a lot of teams that place big value on homeruns and RBI, and thus Trumbo probably has the most trade value.  I gotta believe that Trumbo, Aybar, or Kendrick could alone fetch a solid starting pitcher under club control for another 3-4 years. 

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Cahill would be interesting. His recent struggles shouldn't warrant huge haul to get him either.

 

Kendrick is the most valuable player we can offer in a trade to anyone. Trumbo's issues lie in the fact that he is not good defensively at any position he plays. That limits the teams he can be traded to tremendously.

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Not sure I agree with this. There are still plenty of GM's who will see more value in his HR and RBI ability than his OBP and "Age" (since when is being 28 an age issue?). He isn't going to net a great young pitcher on his own but as the centerpiece of a package? Absolutely.

 

Also Kendrick will likely be seen as a cheaper option to Cano. Granted, Kendrick isn't even remotely as good as Cano is but he will also be making a third of his yearly salary (18.9 million over 2 years for a 30 year old 2Bman who has averaged 3.04 WAR over the last 5 years is not an issue like Olney seems to be implying).

 

Bourjos and Iannetta likely won't net anything valuable on their own this offseason, but they are both valuable pieces that could be part of a bigger trade.

I have to agree with tdawg on this. Some GM will see the value in our players and in a package deal we could still bring some young talent.

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I think these guys all have more value that Olney seems to think.  Kendrick is a very good second baseman, under a cheap contract for two years.  Same with Aybar.  Ianetta, despite his flaws, is relatively comparable to Carlos Ruiz, and look at what he just signed for. 

 

It would actually seem Trumbo would have the least trade value of the bunch, but again, there are a lot of teams that place big value on homeruns and RBI, and thus Trumbo probably has the most trade value.  I gotta believe that Trumbo, Aybar, or Kendrick could alone fetch a solid starting pitcher under club control for another 3-4 years. 

 

First of all, out of the group, Bourjos ideally has the highest value but his perceived value is low right now. Kendrick has the next highest in my opinion and should net us a top end pitching prospect. After that Aybar has the next highest value, then Trumbo, and then Iannetta.

 

Trumbo's perceived value is high right now making him a more ideal choice to trade along with Kendrick, Aybar, and Iannetta. They are all controllable for more than a year (attractive) but no more than 3 years (also attractive). Most importantly they are all money-friendly which is important to other teams who are trying to manage their budgets, especially smaller market teams who can't go out and make free agent purchases like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels.

 

I agree with you wopphil that any one of Bourjos, Kendrick, Aybar, or Trumbo would net a top end prospect.

 

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I would really like Porcello. He's going to be 26 next year and all his numbers are trending up. ERA, FIP, K/9 and GB rate have all improved in each of the past few years and his BB/9 rate is great. 

 

He's just 24, will turn 25 in December. I like him except in the start I saw him get rocked in Angels Stadium. 

 

He won't be cheap as he's in arbitration, will cost $7.7 M according to mlbtraderumors.com.

 

If there is a trade package to get Porcello and their prospect OF/3B Nick Castellanos, I'd love it. Perhaps Kendrick, Frieri, and a minor leaguer like Nick Maronde?

 

If they were able to get these two, it would go a long way to solving the Angels problems in the rotation and at third.

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