Headley

[Hubs]

Saw that the Padres may actually move Headley this offseason if they can't get an extension done. What would it take to get a player of his caliber off a down year one year before free agency?

Padres have young pitching. Yet I'd think they'd be interested in Richards. Trumbo also likely appeals as does Bourjos. I'd be hesitant to trade all three, but Trumbo, Richards, and Cowart... that I'd do for Headley.

I think the Angels have as many issues offensively as they do defensively. And pitching isn't the only place they need to improve.

Follow this up with a trade of Kendrick or Aybar or both for pitching prospects like Aaron Sanchez and/ or Carlos Martinez.

Then you could sign veteran free agent pitchers like Dan Haren, Jason Vargas, Bronson Arroyo, or Roy Halladay. Preferably on one year deals but Vargas or Arroyo I'd give two years to.

It'd be a better offense, a better staff, and better defensively.

[Mudville]

The Angels need young club control pitching then you start a thread about trading their only young club controlled pitcher for a 3rd baseman coming off a bad year, then picking up an old declining free agent pitcher to balance everything out.

 

Could you possibly find a way to include Trout in this scenario?

[Angelsjunky]

Trout for Cashner.

[Scott34]

I know it's just one look at the offense but we were 4th in runs last year. Can we focus on pitching for one offseason?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

That would be a horrible trade for a guy who had a major letdown season in 2013

[ukyah]

woof.

[Mudville]

That would be a horrible trade for a guy who had a major letdown season in 2013

It's not just that, Chase is looking at free agency so trading a club controlled pitcher for a guy in a walk year makes no sense. Richards has too much upside to let go for a potential one an done.

 

No trade involves Richards when you are looking at trying to replace him with guys that are at the end of their careers and are on a steep decline but also will still require veteran money for another stopgap. After this season the Angels are still looking for pitching and possibly for a 3rd baseman should Chase put up numbers worthy of other teams making a bid.

 

If Hubs can come up with a salary eat on Blanton or Hanson to the Padres for Headley then make it happen, neither of those guys are in the Angels long term interest. But Richards is a hard thrower with 5 years of club control, he goes nowhere.

[tdawg87]

Saw that the Padres may actually move Headley this offseason if they can't get an extension done. What would it take to get a player of his caliber off a down year one year before free agency?

Padres have young pitching. Yet I'd think they'd be interested in Richards. Trumbo also likely appeals as does Bourjos. I'd be hesitant to trade all three, but Trumbo, Richards, and Cowart... that I'd do for Headley.

I think the Angels have as many issues offensively as they do defensively. And pitching isn't the only place they need to improve.

Follow this up with a trade of Kendrick or Aybar or both for pitching prospects like Aaron Sanchez and/ or Carlos Martinez.

Then you could sign veteran free agent pitchers like Dan Haren, Jason Vargas, Bronson Arroyo, or Roy Halladay. Preferably on one year deals but Vargas or Arroyo I'd give two years to.

It'd be a better offense, a better staff, and better defensively.

 

You are right that pitching isn't the only place the team needs to improve, but it's certainly the most important. This scenario does nothing to improve the pitching and one could argue that it actually makes the offense worse.

 

Trumbo is the Angels' biggest asset for trading this offseason and if they don't trade him for pitching then they are seriously stupid. I'd like to have Headley but that is way, way too much to give up for him.

[mtangelsfan]

This team is desperate for pitching and you want to trade one of our starters for a third baseman?

 

Ugh.

[Hubs]

The "young controlled" pitching thing is not the only need the Angels have. And I addressed that by getting two young starters who aren't quite ready in trades for Kendrick and Aybar.

It's overvalued anyway. Richards is at best the 3.

The offense was awful last year. Fourth in runs is due to Mike Trout and that's it. Look at the bigger picture. Four regulars had OPS below .700. The only good offensive seasons besides Trout were Kendrick and Trumbo (arguably).

Shuck sucks. Green and Calhoun will still be basically rookies. And if they Trade Trumbo they're still going to need offense. Especially if they move Aybar for pitching too.

Headley is a plus defender and a great bat. If they could move Green in the trade and younger prospect starter, sure. But Richards has value.

Also I wouldn't move both Trumbo and Bourjos.

[Hubs]

I looked at the pitching numbers guys and the problems with pitching are vastly overstated because of the three months and 18 starts missed by Vargas and Weaver. Those two I'd wager would've given up at least one run fewer per start which works out to be a total of 476 given up by the rotation. Which isn't awful.

The problem last year was lack of offense from two highly paid players, injuries to the rotation, bullpen (243 runs allowed which is 80 more than in 2002 when their pen dominated in a much greater offensive era).

Vargas and Weaver also would've helped stay in games longer. They need that. Blanton and Hanson averaged less than six innings per outing, Weaver and Vargas averaged 6.5.

A better pen, better offense, better defense and experienced veteran starters who give you close to 7 innings every night? Sign me up.

[Docwaukee]

sorry hubs, but Richards is exactly what this team needs.  If we can move Trumbo for another Richards type player then I would do it.  I would try to do the same with Aybar although I think you could even get someone a little better than Richards.  You're also essentially banking on Headley rebounding which makes a move like this even more risky.  I just can't get on board with this. 

[jshep]

So in this scenario, we're trading the only cost controlled starter the Angels currently have, Trumbo, and shipping off Cowart at his value's lowest point for 1 year of Chase Headley.

 

We're then shipping off Kendrick and/or Aybar for pitching prospects who may or may not ready and replacing them with Green/Romine/maybe Lindsey. Granted, this alone I don't really have a problem with, but at some point I think you have to try to come up with at least an arm or two who could figure more prominently into 2014, so you don't have to...

 

Fill 2(or actually, 3 in this scenario) rotation spots with veteran stopgaps. Again.

 

I don't see how this makes the 2014 team better at all honestly. Especially if you get the Chase Headley from every other year of his career rather than 2012 Headley. The offense is still possibly weaker than last year's(which goes against the whole point of trading for Headley, it seems), and without the comfort that at least the offense has taken a hit to improve the pitching staff which needs improvement in the worst way.

[tdawg87]

The "young controlled" pitching thing is not the only need the Angels have. And I addressed that by getting two young starters who aren't quite ready in trades for Kendrick and Aybar.

 

But again, it's the biggest need they have and trading away their only cost controlled starter for a bat makes zero sense for this team. You did say to trade for 2 prospects, but that still leaves 3 gigantic holes in the rotation. Filling one of them with Vargas is fine, but Arroyo or Halladay? No thank you.

 

It's overvalued anyway. Richards is at best the 3.

 

And that is exactly what the Angels need. So trading him away for a bat again makes zero sense.

 

The offense was awful last year. Fourth in runs is due to Mike Trout and that's it. Look at the bigger picture. Four regulars had OPS below .700. The only good offensive seasons besides Trout were Kendrick and Trumbo (arguably).

 

It really wasn't "awful". It was above average and that was with Hamilton sucking for 90% of the season and Pujols sucking and then going on the DL. Trout, Kendrick, Aybar, Calhoun, Shuck, Trumbo and even Iannetta all contributed. Add in an .800+ OPS from both Pujols and Hamilton and you have a very good offensive team.

 

Offense was not the reason the Angels finished with 78 wins. A "better" offense gets them a few more wins, sure, but they still miss the playoffs. The rotation and bullpen are the biggest issues that the team needs to address.

[Mudville]

I looked at the pitching numbers guys and the problems with pitching are vastly overstated because of the three months and 18 starts missed by Vargas and Weaver. Those two I'd wager would've given up at least one run fewer per start which works out to be a total of 476 given up by the rotation. Which isn't awful.

The problem last year was lack of offense from two highly paid players, injuries to the rotation, bullpen (243 runs allowed which is 80 more than in 2002 when their pen dominated in a much greater offensive era).

Vargas and Weaver also would've helped stay in games longer. They need that. Blanton and Hanson averaged less than six innings per outing, Weaver and Vargas averaged 6.5.

A better pen, better offense, better defense and experienced veteran starters who give you close to 7 innings every night? Sign me up.

 

The offense that you want to see better than 5th in the AL is only one foot away. Simply speaking Pujols foot kept the Angels from having a top 4 offense.

 

Angles pitching last season was sunk with 200 innings of crap from Blanton and Hanson then the remaining missing 200 innings were spread between Richards and Williams. The time missed by Vargas is a speck compared if they can't sign him for 2014. So if you will just please put the next season on paper you see the Angels have only Weaver, Wilson, Richards and a long reliever Williams as viable pitchers before your plan starts. Remove Richards and you are back to two viable starters.

 

Sanchez is a 20 year old in A+ ball, he will not be of any help. Carlos Martinez is a relief pitcher, again zero help for the rotation.

 

 

Then of course comes the budget. Buying up two starters to try and fill the void is not going to be viable when you are adding more payroll to cover Headley's final Arb season. He already made $8.75 million last season and that money would be better spent on two relief pitchers or one starter and sticking Green on 3rd.

[Inside Pitch]

I looked at the pitching numbers guys and the problems with pitching are vastly overstated because of the three months and 18 starts missed by Vargas and Weaver. Those two I'd wager would've given up at least one run fewer per start which works out to be a total of 476 given up by the rotation. Which isn't awful.

The problem last year was lack of offense from two highly paid players, injuries to the rotation, bullpen (243 runs allowed which is 80 more than in 2002 when their pen dominated in a much greater offensive era).

Vargas and Weaver also would've helped stay in games longer. They need that. Blanton and Hanson averaged less than six innings per outing, Weaver and Vargas averaged 6.5.

A better pen, better offense, better defense and experienced veteran starters who give you close to 7 innings every night? Sign me up.

 

Team OPS + of 110.  wOBA 4th in MLB.  wRC+ 4th in MLB.   Team ERA+ of 89.  ERA 24th in MLB... in a pitcher's park.....

 

Albert Pujols OPS+ of 116, Josh Hamilton OPS+ of 108.  Jason Vargas ERA+ 94.   If you looked at the numbers and these were the conclusions you came to then I need to relearn everything I thought I knew about baseball.

 

Run prevention was this team's problem.  Both pitching and defense.

[Inside Pitch]

It's overvalued anyway. Richards is at best the 3.

 

 

 

If this team had 3 number 3 type pitchers to pair with Wilson and Weaver and the defense rebounds... It makes a run... 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Padres have young pitching. Yet I'd think they'd be interested in Richards. Trumbo also likely appeals as does Bourjos. I'd be hesitant to trade all three, but Trumbo, Richards, and Cowart... that I'd do for Headley.

 

You would trade our most productive power hitter, one of our most promising young arms and Cowart for a 29-year-old third baseman with one year left on his contract who had one big year two seasons ago. Sounds like the kind of deal that created the mess we're in. No, thank you.

[Hubs]

Ok. Trade panned because of a starter whose never pitched a full season in the rotation, has never been considered a top prospect. Seeing as he showed some good value last year, I'm in favor of moving value for value. Also I'd rather move him than a guy like Morin or Sappington.

Fwiw, I'm in favor of adding better young starters who aren't ready to contribute in 2014, but should be by 2015.

I want veteran arms who can pitch deep into games with low walk rates and have little if any injury history.

A rookie or 2nd year pitcher is not a guarantee to give you 200 innings at an ERA of four. Haren, Vargas, Arroyo all would. Getting those guys as a bridge to young guys who are tearing up A/AA instead of more Tommy Hansons, that's what I want.

Because this teams problem last year was not starting pitching at least frontline starting pitching. It was a lack of depth, lack of pitching deep into games, shaky defense, shaky bullpen. Oh and an underperforming offense. Sans Mike Trout this team would've finished near the bottom of the offensive rankings. If this exact pitching staff came back, yet they could score 850 runs, with solid defense? They'd win 95-100 games. With this staff.

The 2008 and 2009 playoff teams allowed more runs than the 2013 squad did.

I want to see 50-80 runs less out of the rotation, to me, that's just resigning Vargas and Haren away from happening. Haren pitches deep into games and will come cheap. Vargas missed six weeks with a freak injury.

Five guys giving you thirty starts is the key here. Young controllable starters are not dependable for that.

Then I want to see 100 more runs out of the offense.

Headley helps them do this and helps on defense. Plus replaces power lost by trading Trumbo.

[HaloFan85]

Saw that the Padres may actually move Headley this offseason if they can't get an extension done. What would it take to get a player of his caliber off a down year one year before free agency?

A down year?  More like a back to normal year.

[Brent Maguire]

"The 2008 and 2009 playoff teams allowed more runs than the 2013 squad did."

 

Those years were also higher scoring run environments than 2013 was. You can't really compare them. 

[Hubs]

Yeah you can. 2009 they ranked 9th in ER. Last year they ranked 11th.

The difference? They scored nearly 200 more runs in 2009

[Inside Pitch]

A down year?  More like a back to normal year.

 

 

Bingo...

 

HR totals

 

09 - 12

10 - 11

11 - 4

12 - 31

13 - 13

 

OPS+

 

09 - 102

10 - 97

11 - 120

12 - 145

13 - 116

 

Career - 115

 

The guy is a solid 3-4 WAR type player...  Essentially what Aybar was in 2011 and 2012.   He's also 30, has one year of club control and because he hits for power and plays a position of need in MLB, about to become very expensive. 

 

When you consider the costs in players, then dollars, it makes very little sense.

[Inside Pitch]

Yeah you can. 2009 they ranked 9th in ER. Last year they ranked 11th.

The difference? They scored nearly 200 more runs in 2009

 

The 2008 team had a ERA+ of 112 vs. an OPS+ of 95  The 2013 team 99 had an ERA+ of 99 vs. an OPS+ of 108.    In both cases those teams did something the 2013 team didn't do.  They outscored their opponents.

 

The issue is run prevention.   Adding more offense while taking away pitching doesn't help this team.  Adding two more number three type pitchers on the other hand makes this team a contender.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Vegas Halo Fan]

A down year?  More like a back to normal year.

 

I looked over Headley's career averages and his annual production. It appears that 2011 was a fluke. Last year Headley had 50 RBI in 600 at-bats. Apart from the 115 RBI in 2011, his peak year is 64. To put last year in perspective, Alberto Callaspo drove in eight more runs than Chase Headley did in about 150 fewer plate appearances. At 29 years of age, he isn't likely to have a major spike in production unless he goes to see one of A-Roid's "doctors" in Miami.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Vegas Halo Fan