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Another Off Season Thread


Stradling

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Like many of you I am not that impressed with the quality of free agent pitchers this off season.  I mentioned my idea in another thread and then I saw Jeff mention something along the same lines.  I would love for us to trade offense for young cost controlled pitching.  We need to trade for guys like Kelly, I just want young arms that can win ball games.  I would have no problem trading Howie, Aybar, Ianetta,Trumbo and Peter this off season, although I would prefer to keep one of the middle infielders.  If we do make those trades, I would then go hard after Ellsbury or Choo.  They both fit Scioscia's style of baseball, meaning they can both run a bit, and they both match Dipoto's philosophy of taking a pitch and working the count.  I would then sign at least one bullpen arm that has a very good MLB resume.  That makes us a better team in the long run.  I will let Arte worry about how he will make all this work and still sign Trout to an extension.  Arte has shown he will spend money, so all of you that are worried about whether or not they can afford a Trout extension, that won't be a problem.  The only way it is a problem is if Trout doesn't want to be here.  One of the huge reasons he wouldn't want to be here would be if they aren't winning, which is all the more reason to spend smart money now to improve the team.  Develop or trade for arms and sign free agent bats. 

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I'd be fine w/ trading Trumbo, Aybar, Ianetta for pitching and I like your idea of spending on position players over pitchers, but this offseason isn't the year to do it. There is a pretty steep drop off after Choo and Ellsbury who will get paid huge. Maybe I'd take a chance on Corey Hart (if the price is right) to split time with Pujols, Hamilton, Calhoun, Bourjos at DH/1b/OF. Get a stop gap as a part of a trade and a backup catcher to replace Ianetta.

 

1. Trout CF

2. Hart DH

3. Pujols 1b

4. Hamilton LF

5. Kendrick 2b

6. Calhoun RF

7. Conger C

8. Jimenez 3b

9. SS

Edited by SigBaby
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I'd like to add either Hart or Peralta over those two. If Trumbo is traded, Hart can takeover Trumbo's role of DH/1B/OF. We could have a younger version of Choo in Calhoun, who would make the league minimum and not cost a draft pick. I'm not high on Ellsbury either, a player entering his 30's who's value comes from his legs is really risky.

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Because pitching is so scarce.  Young pitching especially will have an especially high price tag this offseason.  Every team will want to compete.  And the way FA'cy is going, teams will want young under controlled players in return.  

 

Everyone says that Trumbo is the best chip we have.  I think Calhoun is probably the one that most teams will ask for, and even that might not be enough to land a young arm with huge upside.  

 

Look at the Doggies.  They are stacked in pitching.  And yet they will be pursuing pitching like it's gold this offseason.  Yanks needing pitching won't help the economy for pitchers either.

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Pitching is going to be hard to come by via the trade. Everybody knows how hard it is to acquire young, cost controlled pitching. Even teams in better situations than us pitching wise will still be inquiring with other teams for their young guns, and they may have better trade chips than us. I agree that going after pitching via FA is the wrong move, but I also think going after offense (especially guys like Choo and Ellsburry, who will cost alot), would be the wrong move as well.

 

I don't want to tell Dipoto to stand put this offseason, but he shouldn't overreact and go after a guy like Choo or Ellsburry, or give up all of our \chips for a #3 pitcher.

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This might be too much of an over haul but tell me what you think. I like the idea of signing Hart for 1b, OF and DH. Sign Kurt S to back up Conger and Brian Wilson.

Trade Trumbo for Headly

Trade Kendrick for Fister

Trade Aybar, Bourjos & prospect for Miller

LF Calhoun

CF Trout

1B Pujols

RF Hamilton

3B Headly

DH Hart

C Conger

2B Green/Lindsay

SS Romine/ Field

Weaver

Wilson

Fister

Miller

Richards

Not sure what this would do to our cap but maybe it gives us room to take a flier on a Josh Johnson or Ubaldo. What do you guys think, is this crazy?

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I just can't envision other teams willingly selling their young cost controlled pitchers unless....

 

1. They have so many it's a waste

2. They have a horrible weakness that prevents them from winning

3. They are completely overwhelmed in a trade

 

I mean if the Angels can meet these three criteria with anyone that'll be great but I just don't see it happening, at least not without sacrificing too much.  I see a lot more 1 on 1 trades occurring.  

 

Does anyone remember last season when we all knew Morales was on his way out?  Some folks were suggesting a pretty serious prospect package with Top 100 prospects.  What did we get in return?  A more expensive Jason Vargas for one year.  That's about as unexciting as it gets.  

 

If Bourjos is dealt, you could expect a 4/5 SP with 2-3 years left before Free Agency.  If Trumbo's dealt, probably something similar with a reliever added on.  If Kendrick's dealt, probably a #3/4 SP with 1-2 years before FA.  If Iannetta's dealt, likely a non-elite reliever. 

Edited by ScottyA_MWAH
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I just can't envision other teams willingly selling their young cost controlled pitchers unless....

 

1. They have so many it's a waste

2. They have a horrible weakness that prevents them from winning

3. They are completely overwhelmed in a trade

 

I mean if the Angels can meet these three criteria with anyone that'll be great but I just don't see it happening, at least not without sacrificing too much.  I see a lot more 1 on 1 trades occurring.  

 

Does anyone remember last season when we all knew Morales was on his way out?  Some folks were suggesting a pretty serious prospect package with Top 100 prospects.  What did we get in return?  A more expensive Jason Vargas for one year.  That's about as unexciting as it gets.  

 

If Bourjos is dealt, you could expect a 4/5 SP with 2-3 years left before Free Agency.  If Trumbo's dealt, probably something similar with a reliever added on.  If Kendrick's dealt, probably a #3/4 SP with 1-2 years before FA.  If Iannetta's dealt, likely a non-elite reliever. 

 

I'm down. I assume Aybar is the same as Kendrick in terms of return package.

 

Trade Trumbo, Aybar, Conger (more value than Ianetta).

 

Trumbo and Jepsen to Brewers for Yovani Gallardo and Tyler Thornburg

 

Aybar to Cards for Lance Lynn and Ryan Jackson

 

Conger to Jays for Sergio Santos

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The emergence of Calhoun makes Trumbo and Bourjos expendable. Teams may want one of our middle infielders but we will take a bigger hit if one is traded.

 

I'd love to have a Choo or an Elsberry hitting in front of Trout in the lineup. I bet we score a ton more with that configuration but I don't see how we pay for it. The money would be better spent on Tanaka. If we lose out on Tanaka and do have money to spend I would like to see us look into Choo. 

 

The viability of signing an outfielder definitely depends on the market for Bourjos / Trumbo / Calhoun. We absolutely would need to trade two of them for pitching for it to make sense.

 

We also need to consider what we will do with third base, and how we are going about 'fixing' the pen. I'd like to see them look at Peralta for third and sign at least one closer.

 

Ultimately this comes down to how much money the team is willing to spend. We can't truly spend or trade to fix this team's core issue but we may be able to cover it up with some smart trades and a little money. Who knows if either are possible.

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I'm down. I assume Aybar is the same as Kendrick in terms of return package.

 

Trade Trumbo, Aybar, Conger (more value than Ianetta).

 

Trumbo and Jepsen to Brewers for Yovani Gallardo and Tyler Thornburg

 

Aybar to Cards for Lance Lynn and Ryan Jackson

 

Conger to Jays for Sergio Santos

 

Losing Trumbo, Aybar and Conger would in essence torpedo a sizable portion of our offense.  I'm in favor of a more balanced approach.

 

1. I wouldn't even think of trading Aybar.  If you think young controllable SP is hard to come by, try finding a legitimate offensive and defensive force that's in his prime and cheap at shortstop.  

 

2. Calhoun and Shuck do make Trumbo and Bourjos expendable, and I would trade both of them, but not for Yovani Gallardo.  I'd shop Bourjos around for a legit backend starter with 3+ years before free agency and Trumbo around for essentially the same thing with a bit more upside and possibly a reliever. 

 

3. Hold onto Kendrick, at least until the trade deadline when we know more.  We'll know if Lindsey's ready by then, we'll knowwhether or not we need Howie and we'll know whether or not Grant Green's a legitimate option at 2B/3B or if Jimenez is either. 

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Losing Trumbo, Aybar and Conger would in essence torpedo a sizable portion of our offense.  I'm in favor of a more balanced approach.

 

1. I wouldn't even think of trading Aybar.  If you think young controllable SP is hard to come by, try finding a legitimate offensive and defensive force that's in his prime and cheap at shortstop.  

 

2. Calhoun and Shuck do make Trumbo and Bourjos expendable, and I would trade both of them, but not for Yovani Gallardo.  I'd shop Bourjos around for a legit backend starter with 3+ years before free agency and Trumbo around for essentially the same thing with a bit more upside and possibly a reliever. 

 

3. Hold onto Kendrick, at least until the trade deadline when we know more.  We'll know if Lindsey's ready by then, we'll knowwhether or not we need Howie and we'll know whether or not Grant Green's a legitimate option at 2B/3B or if Jimenez is either. 

 

I can get on board with 2 and 3, but you called Aybar an offensive and defensive force.  uh wuuuuut?

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You're right doc, I should've specified more.  He's a relative offensive and defensive force in comparison to the starting SS options most teams have.  I don't really trust a lot of the defensive metrics taken over one year and more focus on 3+ year segments and when you look at that, Aybar's a pretty solid defensive SS.  Plus, he passes the eye test, which is to say he's great at throwing on the run, has a hell of an arm, is great at turning the double play and has above average range.  

 

Offensively, last year was a slight down year and we can expect .280 30+ DB's 5-10 HR's and 15+ SB on a yearly basis.  Not bad.  But when you consider that Aybar's a switch hitter that legitimately hits from both sides of the plate (.275 vs .282) you have another asset.  

 

He's a 29 year old, 3-4 win player signed through the next 3 years at 8.5 million a year.  That's incredibly valuable.  When you consider that right now the most valuable Free Agent SS is Jhonny Peralta you'll see Aybar's even more valuable.  Peralta's two years older, coming off a PED suspension and has proven that even in his good seasons comes out to slightly less valuable than Aybar.  That guy is going to command likely a 3 year deal at 12+ million per year.  

 

Aybar's tremendously valuable and in this market is literally impossible to replace. 

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Losing Trumbo, Aybar and Conger would in essence torpedo a sizable portion of our offense.  I'm in favor of a more balanced approach.

 

 

I agree to an extent. Our offense (that was pretty good this past season) would have faltered if we lost all those guys. However, going into this next season, this team's offensive success will depend on Trout and more importantly Pujols and Hamilton. If Pujols can hit like he did 2nd half of 2012 and Hamilton can hit like he did 2nd half of last season, then that alone will make up for all offense lost by trading those 3. 

 

Then you factor in Calhoun will be replacing Trumbo, Aybar will be replaced by Romine/ new aquisition, and Conger will be replaced by a FA (Kurt Suzuki?). I think Calhoun is better than Trumbo, Aybar will be better than his replacement, and Conger will probably have equal production as his replacement (although younger and a switch hitter which I really like about him).

 

I like all 3 of those players, but there is fairly reasonable potential for an upgrade offensively without them, and by trading them, our pitching staff would improve a ton.

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Aybar's tremendously valuable and in this market is literally impossible to replace. 

 

We don't have to replace his value with 1 player. Romine/ whoever we acquire will take care of his defensive contributions, while even if Romine or whoever hits a combined .240 10 hrs, that's not all that much of a drop off. Then consider that if Hamilton or Pujols (or both) contribute offensively anywhere near what they're capable of, Aybar's production won't be missed.

 

Also, the fact that there are no good SS available is great for Aybar's trade value. It will never be higher than it is right now.

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I see what you're saying Sig, but I think unfortunately you're putting all your eggs in that Pujols/Hamilton basket.  I'd want to see an offense that still has a shot at producing even if last year wasn't a fluke. even if those two guys aren't getting it done.

 

If Pujols and Hamilton aren't hitting and we've dealt away Aybar and Trumbo, who's left?  Trout obviously, Kendrick and Calhoun.  Those three guys are really good, but that offense would be awful because those three alone couldn't do much. 

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I see what you're saying Sig, but I think unfortunately you're putting all your eggs in that Pujols/Hamilton basket.  I'd want to see an offense that still has a shot at producing even if last year wasn't a fluke. even if those two guys aren't getting it done.

 

If Pujols and Hamilton aren't hitting and we've dealt away Aybar and Trumbo, who's left?  Trout obviously, Kendrick and Calhoun.  Those three guys are really good, but that offense would be awful because those three alone couldn't do much. 

 

Trout is the offense.  Solid contributions from Calhoun (to offset trumbo) and Kendrick get us near where we were last year.  Even slight improvement from Pujols and Hamilton would be enough to offset the loss of Aybar to Romine.  Same offense but now you have two decent starting pitchers.  

 

Also, in reference to Aybar, there is absolute value and relative value.  Yes, he's tough to replace with similar production because, in essence, the talent level at SS is pretty bad.  But, the total or absolute value lost in downgrading to Romine isn't that much because Aybar didn't really contribute all that much.  Sure he did relative to other shortstops, but not relative to the rest of the team.  ie, losing a 3 WAR SS (who gets almost 1 win for just being a SS) and down grading to a 1.5 WAR SS is a 50% loss while a 4 WAR second baseman to a 2.4 WAR 2bman is a 40% loss yet the overall net loss in production to the team is about the same.   If Albert and Josh can't be 1.5 wins better than last year combined, we are likely screwed anyway.  

 

The best you can hope for is a more balanced team and in my opinion, losses of Trumbo and Aybar get you the most pitching for the least loss in total offensive and defensive production from their replacements.  Kendrick to Green or a rookie is much more difficult to make up in absolute value even though the relative loss in production doesn't seem as great.   

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Is Aybar really that hard to replace. Dude has a terrible OBP rate and had a 90 wRC+ last year.

One should not assume Romine will be a 1-2 WAR player. He could just as easily wash out and need to be replaced by June. You can't enter 2014 counting on Romine to be anything more than a utility IF.

 

Romine + Ryan Jackson of Cards could easily = .250 10hrs w/ solid defense. At worst, they both suck offensively, but the defense would still be there

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Is Aybar really that hard to replace. Dude has a terrible OBP rate and had a 90 wRC+ last year.

One should not assume Romine will be a 1-2 WAR player. He could just as easily wash out and need to be replaced by June. You can't enter 2014 counting on Romine to be anything more than a utility IF.

 

you have made a similar statement about several less than palatable scenarios being unacceptable.  The bottom line is that there are certain things this team is going to be able to do this offseason and certain things they are not.  While they may be able to put a more balanced and more talented team on the field for 2014 than they did in 2013, it's not going to be perfect.  There are going to be holes.  Probably some pretty good sized ones.  It's not reasonable to cherry pick the downside of one scenario among the many that will occur and have it mean everything.

 

No team is perfect.  There are going to be weaknesses.  We just have to hope that the strengths make up for those weaknesses.  We are also going to have to get a little lucky and get some extraordinary performances from ordinary players. 

 

If we start the season with Romine at SS, it likely means we improved the team in other areas.   So yes, it wouldn't be ideal to have a util infielder as your starting SS, but try to see the forest through the trees. 

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Agreed doc.

I don't want to lose aybar and replace him with romine. I don't want to replace howie with green. I don't want to lose trumbo and bank solely on hamilton and pujols being the only ones that can change a game with one swing (onbiously trout too).

But I'm willing to take a few of those setbacks to fix the pitching. IE, aybar/howie w vargas and garza (example) is less appealing than romine/howie with a joe kelly (example).

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