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Offseason 2014: The Ultimate Winter of Trade Porn


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Undoubtedly you've read countless articles already on what someone believes the Angels will do this offseason.  I won't try to convince you this article is any different.  It's just me guessing what I think the Angels will do.  Give it a read.  (Keep in mind, not what I'd do, it's what I think THEY will do)

 

http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/2013-articles/november/la-angels-off-season-trade-porn-and-predictions.html

 

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Undoubtedly you've read countless articles already on what someone believes the Angels will do this offseason.  I won't try to convince you this article is any different.  It's just me guessing what I think the Angels will do.  Give it a read.  (Keep in mind, not what I'd do, it's what I think THEY will do)

 

http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/2013-articles/november/la-angels-off-season-trade-porn-and-predictions.html

 

 

Nice read Scott. Everything looks good but I'm wondering if keeping Howie and trying to re-sign Vargas is a better option. 

Edited by Hamiltown
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I like signing the Beard, the Gonzalez for Kendrick deal is intriguing, but have a couple of questions on the other two key deals. 

 

Is that Pirates AA/AAA pitching prospect really that good to fetch Trumbo in exchange?

 

If they trade Bourjos, Stamets, Jepsen (meh), and ultimately Hunter Green for a #4 pitcher (Kelly) and a 3B just two years from FA (Freese), it will begin to smell like the Haren trade.    Now if, because the Cards have so much pitching, they included say Yarbrough instead of Green, I could sign off on that.   Even then, that sounds like a little too much, unless Freese finds himself again here and re-signs upon FA.   

 

Also, Freese has had a bit of a checkered past (game 6 in 2011 WS not withstanding).   But maybe having people like Scioscia, Baylor, and DiSar here would help get him to be more focused on a consistent basis. 

Edited by Angel Oracle
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Its refreshing to read one of these that isn't clearly biased towards Angels homerism.

 

A few comments:

 

1) I REALLY hope you're wrong about Michael Young. He's been consistently mediocre over the last two years (a .682 and .730 OPS, respectively) and is unlikely to get better at age 37. Of course this is exactly the type of move that the Angels are known for, but I'm hoping Jerry doesn't do this. To be honest, I'd rather see CJ Cron skip AAA and suck it up in the big leagues for half a million.

 

2) I think you're right about Williams, Hanson, and Blanton - and I also think they're the right moves to make. Like you, I'd like to see what Hanson could do in the pen, but don't think it will happen with the Angels.

 

3) A trade with the Cardinals really makes sense, but I think they'd be most interested in Erick Aybar. I just don't think many clubs care that much about defensive specialists who haven't played about A+ ball. I'm also hoping that the Angels won't trade Hunter Green, who I have a good feeling about. I could see a one-for-one trade of Aybar for either Lynn or Kelly.

 

4) Brian Wilson seems to be a likely choice.

 

5) I also agree about Tanaka, but maybe note quite as sure as you are. But I think he's going to be more expensive than Darvish but not as good. No thanks.

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Its refreshing to read one of these that isn't clearly biased towards Angels homerism.

 

A few comments:

 

1) I REALLY hope you're wrong about Michael Young. He's been consistently mediocre over the last two years (a .682 and .730 OPS, respectively) and is unlikely to get better at age 37. Of course this is exactly the type of move that the Angels are known for, but I'm hoping Jerry doesn't do this. To be honest, I'd rather see CJ Cron skip AAA and suck it up in the big leagues for half a million.

 

2) I think you're right about Williams, Hanson, and Blanton - and I also think they're the right moves to make. Like you, I'd like to see what Hanson could do in the pen, but don't think it will happen with the Angels.

 

3) A trade with the Cardinals really makes sense, but I think they'd be most interested in Erick Aybar. I just don't think many clubs care that much about defensive specialists who haven't played about A+ ball. I'm also hoping that the Angels won't trade Hunter Green, who I have a good feeling about. I could see a one-for-one trade of Aybar for either Lynn or Kelly.

 

4) Brian Wilson seems to be a likely choice.

 

5) I also agree about Tanaka, but maybe note quite as sure as you are. But I think he's going to be more expensive than Darvish but not as good. No thanks.

 

Hey AJ, thanks for the kind words.  When I'm writing an article like this, I'm so frightened of being that dude that writes these horribly one sided trades in favor of his team that I think sometimes I'm a bit guilty of going the other way.  I like Joe Kelly and think he's a solid #4 SP and I think Freese is a solid 3B, but obviously there's a large contingent of people that'd say Bourjos, Jepsen, Stamets and Green would be an overpay.  

 

I also really like that you recognize that I'm actively thinking of what the Angels would do, not necessarily what I'd do, and Michael Young, despite being in the twilight of his career really seems like an Angel move.  Personaly, while I like Young's leadership and ability to reach base, I'd much rather see what some of the youngsters (Lucho, Lindsey and Cron) could do in that role. 

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I think it would be possible to get Freese and Kelly/Lynn for less if the package is centered around Aybar. Something like Aybar, Bourjos, and Berg. I don't like the idea of trading Green or Stamets, let alone both.

Then again, this thread is about what you think they would do, and that package wouldn't surprise me one bit.

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I like signing the Beard, the Gonzalez for Kendrick deal is intriguing, but have a couple of questions on the other two key deals. 

 

Is that Pirates AA/AAA pitching prospect really that good to fetch Trumbo in exchange?

 

Also, Freese has had a bit of a checkered past (game 6 in 2011 WS not withstanding).   But maybe having people like Scioscia, Baylor, and DiSar here would help get him to be more focused on a consistent basis. 

 

The Pirates have a collection of really high upside pitchers in their system.  Cole, Taillon, Heredia, Kingham and Glasnow would all be by far the top prospects in our system.  Obviously the Pirates won't deal Cole or Taillon for Trumbo, that'd be stupid of them.  The Pirates spent a lot of money scouting and paid a lot of money to get Heredia into their system and I highly doubt they would've done all of that just to trade him for 3 years of Trumbo.  That leaves Kingham and Glasnow.  Glasnow had such an amazing year and his stock is so high right now that you don't use him for Trumbo type of players, you only deal guys like him for elite marquee names when they become avalable (which isn't to say Trumbo isn't good).  

 

That really just leaves Kingham.  Despite being a heck of a pitcher he kind of gets outshined by the others because they're more front of the rotation types and he's more of a mid-rotation type.  He's only 1-2 years away, 91-95 mph fastball, big body, simple mechanics, durable, great curveball and an advanced change.  He should be a major leaguer by 22-23, which is pretty good. 

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I like what you did with the Blanton, Williams, Hanson situation, I hope that happens as much as I like Williams out of the pen.

 

Another thing I noticed is how much better this team looked the last month or so of the season. They got back to small ball: they were aggressive, played good defense, and did the fundamentals right. That's why I think Trumbo will be gone, but Bourjos will stay. 

 

This is what I would like to see:

Hanson + Williams non-tendered

Ianetta to Toronto for Arencibia and a minor league pitcher

Aybar to St. Louis for Jaime Garcia, Keith Butler, and Ryan Jackson

Trumbo, Lindsey, and Jepsen to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorozzi

Sign JP Howell and Scott Baker

 

1. Bourjos CF

2. Trout LF

3. Pujols 1b

4. Hamilton DH

5. Kendrick 2b

6. Calhoun RF

7. Conger C

8. Jimenez 3b

9. Jackson SS

 

Arencibia, Romine, Green, Shuck

 

1. Weaver

2. Wilson

3. Garcia

4. Richards

5. Baker (w/ Odorozzi in AAA)

 

Frieri

De La Rosa

Burnett

Butler

Howell

Kohn

Blanton

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That is nice to hear that Kingham has 3 solid pitches, and can hit 95. 

His control was solid until he reached AA in the 2nd half of 2013, maybe due to nerves being in an advanced league at age 21?   His K's have climbed to being 1/inning this past season.   He doesn't allow many HRs or hits. 

 

He's also 22 today, Happy B-Day!

Edited by Angel Oracle
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I have to agree to an extent, the Kendrick trade in particular seems like a real under sell. The Bourjos trade is reasonable.

 

 

Scotty, you undersell our trade chips and are way overpaying for Wilson.

 

I don't mean to too my horn (actually, yeah I really do) but I've got a pretty decent handle on the value of our prospects.  We all have our strengths and weaknesses as writers/bloggers and within my won fandom, my focus is on scouting and prospects.  

 

What may seem like an incorrect valuing of a prospect could either be a difference in opinion, or could be a necessary construct of my writing.  The last thing I wanted to do was to write another article that wreaks so heavily of homerism that I'm ashamed to write it and can't stand even having to read it.  Admit it, you've all seen them before, some blogger out there genuinely believes the Angels will trade Mark Trumbo and Kaleb Cowart to the Detroit Tigers for Rick Porcello.  

 

I know I've seen it.  So in order to avoid being that guy, I literally force myself to go a bit overboard on some of these so that any Oriole, Cardinal or Pirates fan that stumbles across this article isn't put into a sour mood because some idiot Angel fan thinks his players are better than everyone and is actually convinced other teams should part ways with their valuable players/prospects in return for his garbage. 

 

I hope that explained it adequately. 

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I don't mean to too my horn (actually, yeah I really do) but I've got a pretty decent handle on the value of our prospects.  We all have our strengths and weaknesses as writers/bloggers and within my won fandom, my focus is on scouting and prospects.  

 

What may seem like an incorrect valuing of a prospect could either be a difference in opinion, or could be a necessary construct of my writing.  The last thing I wanted to do was to write another article that wreaks so heavily of homerism that I'm ashamed to write it and can't stand even having to read it.  Admit it, you've all seen them before, some blogger out there genuinely believes the Angels will trade Mark Trumbo and Kaleb Cowart to the Detroit Tigers for Rick Porcello.  

 

I know I've seen it.  So in order to avoid being that guy, I literally force myself to go a bit overboard on some of these so that any Oriole, Cardinal or Pirates fan that stumbles across this article isn't put into a sour mood because some idiot Angel fan thinks his players are better than everyone and is actually convinced other teams should part ways with their valuable players/prospects in return for his garbage. 

 

I hope that explained it adequately. 

 

Everyone has their opinions Scotty. I thought the Bourjos trade was reasonable and said that. As far as what others think I try to put down my real thoughts and feelings and valuations in my articles. Clearly I have a group and niche that doesn't agree with me either and that is fine as long as the comments stay thoughtful and friendly.

 

My only thought was that Kendrick's value seems higher than a 29 year old RHP who has a K/9 in the 6 1/2 range. I just think we can get a much better pitching prospect back than Gonzalez. Beyond that a lot of what you wrote in there might turn out to be reality.

Edited by ettin
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I absolutely agree with you ettin, I think in a reasonable market the Angels should get ore for Kendrick.  But I also was careful not to jump into homerism.  I also anticipate the market not shaping up the way the Angels want.  I think teams will know the Angels are between a rock and a hard place and they'll be forced to overpay for the pitching they want, or accept pitchers that aren't as good as they were hoping for. 

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Personally, that's the only one I see where both the Angels and I agree.  Joe Kelly is awesome.  He's not going to be an ace, he won't even be as good as his numbers are right now.  But looking at how he's progressed in the pro's, how quickly he made it through the minors and the numbers he posted at each level, I think he's going to be awesome. 180+ innings and a 3.50 ERA on a yearly basis, plus he's still two years away from arbitration.  

 

As long as it doesn't cost Aybar, I'd be ECSTATIC if the Angels could land Joe Kelly. 

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It's funny.  Because of previous off seasons, I realized that I have pretty unrealistic expectations of how this team is going to look by the start of the 2014 season. 

 

While a bunch of the moves you mentioned are probably realistic, I would be disappointed if this is the way it went. 

 

I know you mentioned that it was what you thought they would do as opposed to what you would like.  So what would you like to see happen?

 

I agree with AJ.  If Michael Young is on this team next year, I will not be happy.

 

I also think they are going to cut ties with Blanton and offer arb to Hanson who will get a substantial pay cut.  Hanson actually has some upside as a 6th man or swingman and he's already accepted a demotion to try and get himself right.  So, of the three, I think they keep Tommy. 

 

I also don't think they are going to trade anyone not on the major league roster. 

 

I do agree that there is a good chance they trade howie even though I don't want them to.  I've said in the past that I'd rather see them move aybar

 

I also think that Trumbo nets them a decent starter all by himself

 

I am hoping that Arte has set his sights on Tanaka.  If there is luke warm interest, then I agree he won't be a halo yet he seems to lock in on a player and make it a special project to sign him.  I actually like our chances if this is the case. 

 

I'd be totally fine with them bringing in Wilson or any other legit closer and I think they are gonna add another FA pen arm as well as trade for one. 

 

3b is filled internally imo unless someone falls in their lap although wouldn't mind Eric Chavez

 

Finally, I don't think they are gonna trade both Bourjos and Trumbo.  One or the other and one of howie/aybar so they don't have to go out and sign another OF/DH type. 

 

What I think is most likely is that they re-sign Vargas, trade Trumbo for a #3/4, bring in one pen arm (likely not a legit closer), and call it a day. 

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Also, I know this runs directly counter to what I predicted, but I got an email last night from a talent evaluator raving about Grant Green's progress at 3B already this offseason.  Says he may not just be a passable 3B in the future, but could actually become a plus defender.  He said he just looks a lot more natural on the left side of the field, like he's at home and he's gutting to balls that most other 3B wouldn't have a shot at.  

 

I was even told he was spending considerable time at shortstop as well. 

 

It could mean the Angels view him as a shortstop.  Or they could view him as a utility infielder with offensive upside. 

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  • The Angels' signing of starter Chris Volstad could spell trouble for starters Jerome Williams and Tommy Hansonwrites Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles TImes. Volstad is cheap and young, and DiGiovanna says that the club may not see much difference between him and the club's pricier, pre-existing options. In his breakdown of the Halos' arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes calls Hanson a definite non-tender candidate, and says Williams could also be shown the door.

 

I don't think Williams should be tendered a contract and Hanson, obviously shouldn't be tendered, but I don't think Volstad will be Williams' replacement. 

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Also, I know this runs directly counter to what I predicted, but I got an email last night from a talent evaluator raving about Grant Green's progress at 3B already this offseason.  Says he may not just be a passable 3B in the future, but could actually become a plus defender.  He said he just looks a lot more natural on the left side of the field, like he's at home and he's gutting to balls that most other 3B wouldn't have a shot at.  

 

I was even told he was spending considerable time at shortstop as well. 

 

It could mean the Angels view him as a shortstop.  Or they could view him as a utility infielder with offensive upside. 

that's really good news.  I see Green as a huge downgrade to Howie at 2b but if his defense is solid to above average at 3b, then he's a great option there.  Could soften the blow of a aybar to romine/field downgrade should aybar be traded. 

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  • The Angels' signing of starter Chris Volstad could spell trouble for starters Jerome Williams and Tommy Hansonwrites Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles TImes. Volstad is cheap and young, and DiGiovanna says that the club may not see much difference between him and the club's pricier, pre-existing options. In his breakdown of the Halos' arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes calls Hanson a definite non-tender candidate, and says Williams could also be shown the door.

 

I don't think Williams should be tendered a contract and Hanson, obviously shouldn't be tendered, but I don't think Volstad will be Williams' replacement. 

 

honestly, the halos lack viable major league pitchers to such a significant degree that it would be a mistake to let any of them go.  I really think they can pay Hanson less than what he made last year yet Jerome will likely get a raise as an arb3 so he's more likely to get shown the door unless the halos can agree to a lesser deal with him because he wants to stay. 

 

Having a depth chart with Williams, Shoemaker, Volstad, and Hanson as 6-9 is much better than last years depth chart of Williams, Buckner, Enright, ??? as 6-9 especially when you have to assume that 1-5 will no longer include blanton and hanson.  

 

I also think Richards is going to really surprise people in 2014 and become a legit pitcher and part of the rotation as opposed to a up and coming #5 who is a slave to his mechanics and delivery. 

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That's great news about Green if he's making strides at 3rd.

I also agree that if Hanson isn't as expensive next year, that he could be a good swing man. He should definitely still have value as a reliever at this point and could thrive in little 2-3 inning spurts in the pen.

Edited by Angels_Baseball
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