Pujols' contract maybe not a true albatross

[GregAlso]

These are some interesting thoughts about what teams are doing with long term deals. It makes a lot of sense and applies to all long term deals even though it focuses on Cano.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/accepting-dead-money-in-free-agent-contracts/

[Troll Daddy]

YOT agrees

[Angel Oracle]

The minimum wage jump does not make up that much of the overall increase, though.

How many players make minimum wage for each team? 

 

The average salary has only climbed by less than 4%/season.   That's not that big of a deal.

 

Where the big increase has come is in the level of players who are fringe All-Stars, who are making so much more than they did 10 years ago.

[gotbeer]

So......

 

2014 8.7

2015 8.2

2016 7.7

2017 7.2

2018 6.7

2019 6.2

2020 5.7

2021 5.2

2022 4.7

2023 4.2

$ to war $7.07 million Total War 64.5 = 10 year $456 million.  

 

I think this writer was trying to make numbers work for him, by manipulating them.

[Brent Maguire]

Really solid article. Cameron is one of the best writers out there. 

[Ohtaniland]

If Albert would have stayed in St. Louis for a couple of more seasons and became a free agent today, there's no way he would get an 8 year $212M (what remains) deal today. There's no sugarcoating it, Albert's contract is an Albatross.

 

How many (@ngelswin projected) championships has Albert delivered us so far? None, and he's not getting any younger but he is getting more expensive..   

Edited November 7, 2013 by Hamiltown

[ten ocho recon scout]

I agree hamiltown, but we can't blame him for lack of rings, any more than we can point a finger at weaver for it.

[Ohtaniland]

I agree hamiltown, but we can't blame him for lack of rings, any more than we can point a finger at weaver for it.

Scout I completely understand what you're saying but, Albert was suppose to be the type of player that gets everybody to play together at a higher level. Thus far he's had 0 (zero) impact. My point is that if you have the balls to demand that kind of contract then you better deliver.

[AngelArcher]

Cliff notes?

[ten ocho recon scout]

I hear you. To clarify, what I meant was that this teams lack of rings is due to having more than a few holes, as well as legit competition. Texas has been very good, and oakland finally got it together.

That said, as much as I don't think one guy can lead a team to glory in baseball (basketball you can), I completely agree that when you sign the big contract, you better be ready to take responsibility. Sometimes these guys think they're being picked on by fans and media, but when you ask to be paid the best, you're digging your own hole in expectations. May not be 'fair', but reality often isn't.

[405z06]

No, it's still an albatross. The argument that it might not be assumes that you get the expected production for the first few years of the contract, which obv hasn't happened with Albert.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

 

Albert's contract is an Albatross.

 

I'm thinking more like pterodactyl.

[Jobu]

Cliff notes?

 

Teams are paying for longer and longer contracts instead of increasing annual salaries at the same rate as other baseball salaries. It's a concious trade-off both they and the players are making.

[GregAlso]

The point I think the article makes well is that the teams figure the last two or three years to be unproductive years. Yes, Albert has had two bad beginning years but that couldn't really be seen by anyone before he was signed. The initial length of the contract wasn't as bad as people made it seem. I just think the article helps to explain the FO logic in taking on the 10 year contract.

[gotbeer]

using the articles logic.

 

Taking a -0.5 WAR per season, -0.7 WAR after age 33.

 

2011 last season with St Louis.  5.1

2012 4.6 

2013 4.1 but had a 1.5

2014 3.4

2015 2.7

2016 2.0

2017 1.3

2018 0.7

2019 0

2020 -0.7

2021 -1.4

 

A total while in Anaheim of 16.7 War.  10/$240 contract means we are paying $14.3 million per WAR.  

 

So not worth it.

[FireThemAll]

The main problem with the Pujols contract is that we really needed the first 4 seasons of the contract to be great. That isn't going to happen.

 

Most FA's these days get market value at the beginning of their contract, then are overpaid because their skills decline. Pujols is probably going to be incredibly overpaid his entire contract except maybe the 1st year. 9 years of overpaying for a mediocre first baseman with no footspeed and rapidly declining plate discipline. It is 150% an Albatross. Worst contract ever if you ask me.

[YouthofToday]

Good article. If Trout continues to be a 8+ WAR player and hits FA after 2017 at age 27 he might land a $400 million deal. I'm absolutely serious.

[arch stanton]

The fact that 2012 will be looked back on as his most productive year as an Angel means that yes, he still is the Albert Pujols.

fact  [fakt]  Show IPA

noun

1.

something that actually exists; reality; truth: Your fears have nobasis in fact.

2.

something known to exist or to have happened: Space travel isnow a fact.

3.

a truth known by actual experience or observation; somethingknown to be true: Scientists gather facts about plant growth.

4.

something said to be true or supposed to have happened: Thefacts given by the witness are highly questionable.

[Mark68]

 

If Albert would have stayed in St. Louis for a couple of more seasons and became a free agent today, there's no way he would get an 8 year $212M (what remains) deal today. There's no sugarcoating it, Albert's contract is an Albatross.

 

How many (@ngelswin projected) championships has Albert delivered us so far? None, and he's not getting any younger but he is getting more expensive..   

 

We are two-time defending off-season champions.

[Angel Oracle]

It's the Santanas and Nolascos who have benefitted by far the most over the past 5 years.

They would be asking 5 years ago, with the same career stats after 2008 as now, for probably half of what they are asking for now.

The All-Stars and the fringe players are making not that much more. It's the next level down after All-Star, especially pitchers, that has really benefitted.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[YouthofToday]

It's the Santanas and Nolascos who have benefitted by far the most over the past 5 years.

They would be asking 5 years ago, with the same career stats after 2008 as now, for probably half of what they are asking for now.

The All-Stars and the fringe players are making not that much more. It's the next level down after All-Star, especially pitchers, that has really benefitted.

Perhaps, but this is because elite players haven't hit the market during their prime years -- teams lock them up and prevent them from hitting the market.

Watch what Price and Kershaw land...

[gotbeer]

And moving the logic to Hamilton

 

2011 3.5 

2012 3.3

 

2013 2.8  Actual 1.5

2014 2.3

2015 1.6

2016 0.9

2017 0.2

 

Total 7.8 War.  Contract 5/$125.  Only $16.0 million per WAR.  

 

So now, with that brilliant hogwash article, Trouts projected 64.5 WAR should be worth between $1.032 billion and $922 million over 10 years for the Angels.  

[Docwaukee]

Pujols contract is even more of an Albatross than expected.  The two most productive years where you were supposed to get a huge chunk of your value are already gone without that production. 

[Stradling]

Unless of course he has a great year this year.

[Ohtaniland]

Unless of course he has a great year this year.

Great year is always subject to interpretation. In Alberts world, beating Jack Clark out $500 bucks (probably what he's worth now) for opening his big mouth and or reaching the 500 Home run plateau (he only needs 8) would be a great year for him personally.