Olney: Trumbo & Bourjos on Trade Block

[Mark68]

I like Bourjos better than Trumbo, but in the end I'd rather see Petey go because I want Trout to stay in CF - mainly because he loves playing there and anything that keeps him happy is a good thing.

 

But I think Dipoto can safely trade both. Next year the OF would be Hamilton, Trout, and Calhoun, with Shuck as the 4th outfielder, or start when Calhoun covers 1B for Pujols, who might start quite a few games at DH. DH will be Pujols and a variety of different players - maybe even Cron later in the year. It isn't the worst thing in the world if DH is a rotating cast of resting starters and bench players.

 

I'd rather see the Angels trade Iannetta over Conger, but either one leaves a big gap. Who becomes back-up? Maybe they sign someone like Dioner Navarro, Kelly Shoppach, or even Jose Molina - who is a great defensive catcher and would be a good mentor for Hank.

 

Trading Howie Kendrick should be relatively easy and a no-brainer, as he could net a good starter and the Angels are deeper at 2B than just about any position - with Grant Green, Taylor Lindsey, and Yarbrough. Erick Aybar seems less likely to be dealt, especially if the Angels trade Kendrick. Who fills in, Andrew Romine? Tommy Field? Either one are solid UT guys, but not starters.

 

Trumbo for Headley makes too much sense to happen. But it also gets real expensive for the Angels as he'll make around $10MM in arbitration and is set for free agency in 2015. I have a hard time seeing the Angels want to add that kind of money, so we'll probably see either Jimenez or Green.

 

So the primary trade pieces are Trumbo, Bourjos, Kendrick, and Iannetta. Calhoun, Aybar, Shuck, and Conger are all possible but less likely.

I like the Dioner Navarro idea. He murdered lefties this year, and for his career, has a .778 OPS vs lefties.

[Mark68]

I'm not a fan of Lance Lynn. His road numbers suck. The Angels should easily be able to find someone better than him.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8650/splits/?season=2013

Probably not easily.

[Inside Pitch]

I'd still trade Aybar over Howie.  People aren't going to like Green.  Just a feeling.  Downgrade from Howie to Green is greater than the downgrade from Aybar to a util guy imo.  I know I'm in the minority on this but I wouldn't trade howie till Lindsey is ready.  I also think Aybar gets you more in trade than Howie. 

 

Tremendous defenders at SS have the opportunity to make up for offense because of the number of chances they get.  Brendan Ryan was a 3.5 WAR player for 4 years because of his defense.  Romine could be that guy. 

 

 

HK gets underrated because people bought into sportswriter pap eons ago and consider him a failure.   The dropoff from HK to Green would be huge... Green can't play 2B, the offense he did deliver was completely negated by his inability to play defense.  If the Angels front office really sees Green as a possible 2B .. egads.... If they ended up moving HK and keeping Trumbo I'd seriously question the direction of this franchise.

[Inside Pitch]

2013 was the first season in 2-3 years that Cashner was a starter, and he pitched 175 innings.

Hopefully, he would be good then for something like 210 innings in 2014.

He seemed to keep his pitch counts pretty solid, as over his last 9 starts in 2013 he averaged 103 pitches over 7 innings.

That 175 innings is more than he pitched at any level ever..   Cashner is interesting in that he is the poster child for what someone once termed as innings shock.  Historically, guys that see a jump like his tend to follow that up with some time on the DL.   The flipside is that he was 26, and that the injury record for guys that don't see significant innings until after age 25 is much much lower than those who piled it on early.

 

The issue for me with Cashner stems from his 2.05 runs difference in ERA, home and away.   His road ERA of 4.00 in the NL is a bit worrisome.

[Inside Pitch]

He did manage to stay healthy in 2013, and that's definitely a good sign, but his IP totals since entering pro ball:

 

2008: 20 IP

2009: 100.1 IP

2010: 111.1 IP

2011: 15.1 IP

2012: 69.2 IP

2013: 175 IP

 

And between 2011 and 2012, he missed a combined 202 games with right shoulder injuries.

 

He's certainly a talented pitcher, and I would love to have him under the right circumstances, but I would have a hard time penciling him in for 200+ innings.

 

 

Excellent post.   Shoulder injuries are still vastly more dangerous than elbow injuries..

[Inside Pitch]

See now when I think of "depth guy" I think of solid AAA SP with limited upside like Matt Shoemaker, Jerome Williams and A.J. Schugel.  Cumpton (admittedly I don't know enough about him), just seems like he's put up solid numbers at every level and is durable. But again, I don't know a ton about him and if you know more than what I can research on google than I'll believe you. 

 

He was a poor man's Tim Hudson in the minors, their periphs are closer than you would think.   His biggest strength is his tendency to keep the ball in the park.  The walk rate needs a little help, and the K rate is meh for a RHer -- but, like AO pointed out he induces ground balls left and right.

[Torridd]

I like Bourjos better than Trumbo, but in the end I'd rather see Petey go because I want Trout to stay in CF - mainly because he loves playing there and anything that keeps him happy is a good thing.

 

But I think Dipoto can safely trade both. Next year the OF would be Hamilton, Trout, and Calhoun, with Shuck as the 4th outfielder, or start when Calhoun covers 1B for Pujols, who might start quite a few games at DH. DH will be Pujols and a variety of different players - maybe even Cron later in the year. It isn't the worst thing in the world if DH is a rotating cast of resting starters and bench players.

 

I'd rather see the Angels trade Iannetta over Conger, but either one leaves a big gap. Who becomes back-up? Maybe they sign someone like Dioner Navarro, Kelly Shoppach, or even Jose Molina - who is a great defensive catcher and would be a good mentor for Hank.

 

Trading Howie Kendrick should be relatively easy and a no-brainer, as he could net a good starter and the Angels are deeper at 2B than just about any position - with Grant Green, Taylor Lindsey, and Yarbrough. Erick Aybar seems less likely to be dealt, especially if the Angels trade Kendrick. Who fills in, Andrew Romine? Tommy Field? Either one are solid UT guys, but not starters.

 

Trumbo for Headley makes too much sense to happen. But it also gets real expensive for the Angels as he'll make around $10MM in arbitration and is set for free agency in 2015. I have a hard time seeing the Angels want to add that kind of money, so we'll probably see either Jimenez or Green.

 

So the primary trade pieces are Trumbo, Bourjos, Kendrick, and Iannetta. Calhoun, Aybar, Shuck, and Conger are all possible but less likely.

Am I the only one who sees no reason to trade HK?

Edited October 30, 2013 by Torridd

[Reveille1984]

Isn't Taylor Lindsey more the replacement we're gearing towards?  I can't imagine Green sticking long term at second base.  

[Torridd]

Isn't Taylor Lindsey more the replacement we're gearing towards?  I can't imagine Green sticking long term at second base.  

And is there a chance he could play 3B? I really don't want him replacing HK.

[Angel Oracle]

I am hoping that Lindsey can somehow either skip AAA, or only need a month or two there.

Then HK could be dealt knowing that Green wouldn't be playing 2B for very long.

[Torridd]

I am hoping that Lindsey can somehow either skip AAA, or only need a month or two there.

Then HK could be dealt knowing that Green wouldn't be playing 2B for very long.

From the stats I've seen, Lindsey doesn't seem ready to make that kind of jump.

[Mark68]

From the stats I've seen, Lindsey doesn't seem ready to make that kind of jump.

Which stats are those?

 

In ARK, he batted .274/.339/.441/.780. The Texas League is not known as a hitters' league.

 

As a point of comparison, in 94 games in Arkansas, Jean Segura batted .294/.346/.404/.749 in 2012.

[Scott34]

Lindsey is a person.

His hands are pretty stupid quick. I could see him eventually being a .280 guy in the bigs with 2-3 WAR. Green would only need to start at maximum half of a season before Lindsey is ready.

[YouthofToday]

Forget the stats, AA is when players first see decent off speed stuff. What does the scouting report say about his plate discipline?

[Inside Pitch]

Which stats are those?

 

In ARK, he batted .274/.339/.441/.780. The Texas League is not known as a hitters' league.

 

As a point of comparison, in 94 games in Arkansas, Jean Segura batted .294/.346/.404/.749 in 2012.

 

The Texas League IS pretty much a hitters league...    It always has been.

 

Someone on this board once said it wasn't and everyone and their brother has run with it but the reality is that it's the 4th best league in MiLB for runs, 3rd best in H/9 and 4th best for HR/9.   The Angels affiliate plays in a severe pitcher's park and so people need to consider that when looking at our players but, as a whole it's a very offensive minded league.

 

Lindsey's numbers were solid, but I don't think he's ready to make the jump to MLB.    

Edited October 30, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

Isn't Taylor Lindsey more the replacement we're gearing towards?  I can't imagine Green sticking long term at second base.  

 

 

I'm in the minority here but I think his glove needs some work, I thought Keith Law pegged it when he said he's not loading up, and I think that would get exposed more at the MLB level.  He needs some time to work on things still, but the kid has freaky quick hands and he inside outs balls really well.  He's got a lot of encouraging signs as a hitter, his Line Drive rate is better than the league average, his GB rate and FB rate are were you want them to be, he popped up more than the league average but not by much.  Swinging K rate was about 3% below the league average and his non HBP, and IBB walk rate was right at the league average, so he's not a hack despite not being known for his discipline.   Last year he saw 3.81 P/PA which is better than 90% of what the Angels players managed.  Calhoun for instance was at 3.91.

 

The half of season of AAA may or may not be optimistic, he made a pretty significant jump forward last year, so it's not impossible to think he could repeat that sort of an improvement at AAA, but I think a full season of AAA would be the safer bet. 

 

My guess is that the park in AAA will inflate his triple slash stats to a degree and there will be people clamoring for him to get called up.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[VariousCrap]

I'm sorry, but all these trade options show me is how much the Angels need to get Tanaka.

 

After that, they would be in a better position to trade for a young starters and bullpen arms.  They could resign Vargas and then trade to get MLB ready bullpen arms and high prospects SP for the future.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Jim B

[Inside Pitch]

I'm sorry, but all these trade options show me is how much the Angels need to get Tanaka.

 

After that, they would be in a better position to trade for a young starters and bullpen arms.  They could resign Vargas and then trade to get MLB ready bullpen arms and high prospects SP for the future.

 

Tanaka will cost a lot, but not signing him/fixing the pitching could cost the team much, much, more.

[YouthofToday]

Tanaka will cost a lot, but not signing him/fixing the pitching could cost the team much, much, more.

Unless Arte is willing to pony up at least $60 million in a transfer fee + a $60 million contract this isn't happening.

I would peg our odds at landing Tanaka at less than 5 percent.

[Brent Maguire]

With the way Arte has spent money, nothing would surprise me this offseason. 

[Glen]

Unless Arte is willing to pony up at least $60 million in a transfer fee + a $60 million contract this isn't happening.

I would peg our odds at landing Tanaka at less than 5 percent.

 

 

The Dodgers and the Yankees are in on Tanaka.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a posting fee north of $70 million.  

[nando714]

The dodgers will have a surplus of pitchers ...right?

[Glen]

The dodgers will have a surplus of pitchers ...right?

 

 

Yeah, and they can trade us their worst one for Kendrick and not miss a beat.  Meanwhile, dude would probably be our #3 starter.

[jshep]

The dodgers will have a surplus of pitchers ...right?

 

If they sign Tanaka or anyone else, yes.

 

They've got Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Beckett, and Billingsley under contract for 2014 already.

[Angel Oracle]

Angry Arte is willing to give 10 years/$240 million and 5 years/$125 million to two declining sluggers, but not 5-6 years/$120 million including rights fee for the best pitcher in Japan the past two seasons? 

 

Re the Raviners:   What's the latest on Zach Lee's progress?   They of course need a 2B.  

HK for Lee/Withrow?

Edited October 30, 2013 by Angel Oracle