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Worst-case scenario


Angelsjunky

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Let's get it off our chests.

 

- Arte makes an other panic move and over-spends on some aging free agent.

- Jerry tries to compensate and puts together a crappy bullpen (again) and weak bottom half of the rotation.

- The Angels struggle again in 2014; Hamilton and Pujols prove that their declines are legit.

- The Angels struggle through a few seasons of medocrity, losing draft picks to free agent signing patch jobs that don't work.

- The farm system doesn't improve, or only slowly improves.

- Mike Trout puts off an extension. The Angels think they can sign him after the 2017 season but the Yankees or Phillies swoop in and offer him 10 years, $350 million.

- Finally, admitting defeat, Arte Moreno sells the team in 2018 or so, and the Angels enter a true rebuilding phase, with the hopes of contending again in 2022 or so.

 

There. I feel better.

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I think it is impossible to predict more than a few years into the future. Although we have a horrible farm and some aging players, the FO could decide tomorrow that its primary goal is stockpiling prospects, even if at the expense of the big league club. Were that to happen, this could be a franchise rich with prospect talent (plus the means to support a large payroll and no long term contracts other than Pujols) in just three years or so.

In other words, any doomsday scenario could be reversed over just a few seasons and nobody should panic that it will be ten years before the team is competitive again.

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-You forgot to mention Blanton has another good spring like he did last year, gets the nod to be in the starting rotation, then he becomes 2013 Joe Blanton again.

-Also not mentioned is Mike puts Kohn in a tie game in the 7th inning in week one of the season, he gives up a run and now Scioscia doesn't care about winning again.

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I think it is impossible to predict more than a few years into the future. Although we have a horrible farm and some aging players, the FO could decide tomorrow that its primary goal is stockpiling prospects, even if at the expense of the big league club. Were that to happen, this could be a franchise rich with prospect talent (plus the means to support a large payroll and no long term contracts other than Pujols) in just three years or so.

In other words, any doomsday scenario could be reversed over just a few seasons and nobody should panic that it will be ten years before the team is competitive again.

 

I agree to an extent but I worry the window to reverse it may close. Our tradable assets (as far as ones that can get us building blocks) are Kendrick, Aybar, Frieri, Trumbo, Bourjos, Conger. I may be forgetting a few. But every year we hold onto those guys the more value most of them will lose. They get closer to their decline and have fewer years of relatively cheap club control.

 

Also the longer we wait the more years of Trout's prime and club control we lose. We have 4 more years of club control left. We certainly don't want to be bottoming out around the time of his FA. I'd like to be on the up swing.

 

How many guys in our current rotation will be pitching near their current levels with the Angels in 4 years? How many minor league arms in our system have a realistic shot at being a top end starter in 4 years? How many position players have a legit shot at being above average regulars in 4 years? Right now it's looking disastrous.

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Yea eater, but you can say that about most teams. How many of the offensive players on Boston or St Louis will still be playing at this level in 4 years? St. Louis might be the only team where I think their pitching will still be this good in four years. Maybe Oakland will have good pitching four years from now, but most other teams that are good right now, without making the right moves from here on out, will not be that great in four years. Who on the Dodgers will be playing at this level in four years? I think Kershaw is very good, but he has a ton of innings on his arm and four years from now there is no guarantee he will be as effective. It really is about whether or not the pitchers they drafted the last two years (all 35 of them) amount to anything, or if they become good enough to trade for other valuable pieces.

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ADaB that is an absolute given. Four years from now he will still tell the team to stop trading all of our left handed pitching prospects, even though that hasn't happened in three years. Oh and the ones that have been traded, outside of Corbin, haven't done much. AO is still pissed that Darrel Sconiers wasn't given more of a chance and don't get him started on Jimmy Anderson and John Orton.

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Yea eater, but you can say that about most teams. How many of the offensive players on Boston or St Louis will still be playing at this level in 4 years? St. Louis might be the only team where I think their pitching will still be this good in four years. Maybe Oakland will have good pitching four years from now, but most other teams that are good right now, without making the right moves from here on out, will not be that great in four years. Who on the Dodgers will be playing at this level in four years? I think Kershaw is very good, but he has a ton of innings on his arm and four years from now there is no guarantee he will be as effective. It really is about whether or not the pitchers they drafted the last two years (all 35 of them) amount to anything, or if they become good enough to trade for other valuable pieces.

 

True, but going by objective rating systems the Angels have the worst farm system in baseball. Most other teams have guys that can step in. many of them have multiple layers of talent ready to step in if some prospects should falter as many prospects do. Also we have one young pitcher. Many teams have 2 or 3 on this side of 30.

 

Keep in mind it's not the guys drafted this season that will be contributing to winning in 4 years mostly. It will be guys in AA and AAA. Most rookies take time to contribute at a playoff level. Our upper farm is pretty bare.

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Yea, I agree with this, but assuming we are past the performance enhancing drugs era (cue cezero) most pitchers will start their decline around 32. So we will start to see the prime years for pitching go back to 26-31 or even younger. Not trying to downplay how poorly our minor leagues are, just pointing out that with a pitching focus draft the last two years, we could see real benefits of it in a few years. I completely agree that we don't have the layers that other teams have in their minors, but we have an owner that will spend if that is what is needed to stay competitive, unlike a few teams that have outstanding minor league systems.

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The problem is the Angels have very little margin for error. They are up against the luxury tax. If the stories out recently are true that Arte left Dipoto with a budget that wouldn't allow him to sign the same quality of pitcher that he wanted then it shows that Arte does have a budget so this team can't just spend and spend and spend.

 

But aside from that, with revenue sharing small market teams are able to lock down their young players so fewer hit the FA market. Spending will lead to diminishing returns. Add to that the fact that signing FA will cost us first round picks and hurt our farm even more and I think it will make our eventual rebuilding process even longer and tougher. Spending and going all in on average teams is what got us into this mess. I don't think it's the solution to getting us out.

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Personally, I would like to see Kendrick and Aybar traded. They were the "core" of this team the last few years, and both are lousy situational hitters. They have been on cruise control since they were extended. Yeah..they are relatively cheap and under club control, but there is a reason they are "relatively" cheap..neither of them are all that talented. They are rally killers and frankly, I don't see either of them as being very bright. The team offensive numbers were OK this season...but the dynamics were gawdawful.

The team lacks electricity and the "scrappiness" factor, and these two are the leaders for the "going through the motions" that Torii talked about when he called this team out last season.

Anyhow, that is where I would start the process of building a different dynamic, and possibly adding some pitching in the process.

Edited by Homebrewer
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