Qualifying Offers

[ettin]

So I was just reading a story about how the Mariners plan to offer Morales a qualifying offer (approximately $14 million) in the off season.

 

This effectively limits Morales from pursuing a longer contract with another team (mainly AL teams because Morales would mainly DH due to defensive concerns) as many GM's would not want to sigh Kendrys if they have to lose their first round draft pick.

 

Either way Morales will make some money but I can't help but feel a little sorry for him as the Mariners have effectively hijacked his ability to enter the free agent market. If he refuses the offer he may not find another contract due to the draft pick loss tied to signing him and if he accepts he has to stay in Seattle (albeit at $14,000,000) for one year.

 

If he performs the Mariners will more than likely do the same thing next year. If he performs poorly his FA stock will fall and he won't get nearly as much out on the open market next off season.

 

We can wax poetic all day about the absurd salaries that MLB players receive but inside their bubble world it really seems that Morales has been boxed into a corner when he is supposed to be hitting free agency where he is supposed to have the freedom to choose which team he wants to go too.

[sneaky_flute]

I don't see how a DH would make more than that in free agency.

[Angels]

That's a pretty damn good deal for him. There's simply not much of a market for a DH who isn't even all that good to begin with.

[Scott34]

I don't see how a DH would make more than that in free agency.

 

Isn't about making more.  It's about not playing for the Mariners.

[sneaky_flute]

If he doesn't want to play for the Mariners then he can take 3 million from another team

[Angels]

If he doesn't want to play for the Mariners then he can take 3 million from another team

 

Probably something like that.

 

He would be stupid not to accept 1/14.

[Scott34]

If he doesn't want to play for the Mariners then he can take 3 million from another team

 

Quite the shitty choice. 

[ettin]

I don't see how a DH would make more than that in free agency.

 

You may be right but there are two things: 1 ) It's about the ability, in free agency, to choose where you want to play and 2 ) Obtaining a longer term contract that allows you to buy a home and move your family into an area, knowing you will be there for a specific length of time.

 

I guess my complaint is more about the fact that the players work hard to earn the right of becoming a free agent and then to have a team effectively decide your fate seems counter to the whole idea of becoming a free agent.

[Spencer]

$14M is a hell of a lot of money.

And if the M's do the ssme thing next year?

Oh damn, I guess he'll have to settle for ANOTHER $14M+

I don't see how this is a bad thing for him. No way he signs a 2-5 year contract for an AAV of $14M. Stay with Seattle for as long as they'll have you, make your money, then a couple years from now , if you really want some job security or to play for a contender, go that route.

I can think of many situations far worse than playing in a great stadium, in a great city, and be paid extremely well to do it.

[Angels]

You may be right but there are two things: 1 ) It's about the ability, in free agency, to choose where you want to play and 2 ) Obtaining a longer term contract that allows you to buy a home and move your family into an area, knowing you will be there for a specific length of time.

 

I guess my complaint is more about the fact that the players work hard to earn the right of becoming a free agent and then to have a team effectively decide your fate seems counter to the whole idea of becoming a free agent.

 

I'm pretty sure he would rather take 1/14 than 3/15.

[Troll Daddy]

I don't believe the team signing him loses their first round pick but a sandwich pick is my understanding???

[ettin]

$14M is a hell of a lot of money.

And if the M's do the ssme thing next year?

Oh damn, I guess he'll have to settle for ANOTHER $14M+

I don't see how this is a bad thing for him. No way he signs a 2-5 year contract for an AAV of $14M. Stay with Seattle for as long as they'll have you, make your money, then a couple years from now , if you really want some job security or to play for a contender, go that route.

I can think of many situations far worse than playing in a great stadium, in a great city, and be paid extremely well to do it.

 

No I don't think he would sign a contract with an AAV of greater than $14 million either. However it is quite possible that he could sign, say, a 3 yr./$30 million dollar contract, with a contending team, and would be able to move to that city, buy a home, and have the comfort of knowing that he will get all of that $30,000,000, even if he is injured. This is especially important to Morales, I'm sure, because he knows what it is like to get injured and nearly have his career ended prematurely.

 

$30 million >>>> than $14 million

 

Again I agree with you guys that this is a lot of money no matter what but free agency was set up to give a player flexibility and the qualifying offer is taking that flexibility away.

[Ohtaniland]

Our DH / 1B will cost $23M next season so Morales is a bargain.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Hamiltown

[ettin]

I don't believe the team signing him loses their first round pick but a sandwich pick is my understanding???

 

The signing team loses their first round pick and the team that loses the player would obtain a sandwich pick is the way I understand it. So really it is sort of like a #31 pick (or #32, #33, etc.) for the "losing" team while the signing team completely loses their 1st round pick (or 2nd round pick if that team has a protected 1st round pick).

[Angels]

DH-only players simply don't get long-term, big-money contract offers. There's only one DH-only player I can think of who can probably get such a deal...David Ortiz. And Morales isn't even close to Ortiz as a hitter.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Angels

[EE_]

This will certainly be addressed by the players in the next CBA. It definitely costs borderline star players some money.

 

On the Angels side, it definitely makes sense to offer a qualifying offer to Vargas.

If he accepts then yeah, it's somewhat more expensive than he probably deserves on an annual basis, but the team avoids the large counterparty risk associated with long term contracts (WIN). If he goes elsewhere the team gets a compensation pick (WIN). The added benefit is that forcing opposing suitors to forfeit their 1st round draft pick serves to lower his price, so even if you do sign him to a long term contract his price will likely be lower than by not offering a qualifying offer (WIN).

 

The negative scenarios are to lose Vargas with no compensation or to sign him to a long term contract t the highest possible price. Avoid those scenarios for a change.

[Angels]

This will certainly be addressed by the players in the next CBA. It definitely costs borderline star players some money.

 

On the Angels side, it definitely makes sense to offer a qualifying offer to Vargas.

If he accepts then yeah, it's somewhat more expensive than he probably deserves on an annual basis, but the team avoids the large counterparty risk associated with long term contracts (WIN). If he goes elsewhere the team gets a compensation pick (WIN). The added benefit is that forcing opposing suitors to forfeit their 1st round draft pick serves to lower his price, so even if you do sign him to a long term contract his price will likely be lower than by not offering a qualifying offer (WIN).

 

The negative scenarios are to lose Vargas with no compensation or to sign him to a long term contract t the highest possible price. Avoid those scenarios for a change.

 

They probably would if they didn't have to worry about the luxury tax...

[gotbeer]

In the history of the game, according to Cot's.

 

 

Designated hitters
The highest-paid designated hitters, by average annual value:
1. David Ortiz, $14,575,000 (2012)
2. Travis Hafner, $14,250,000 (2009-12)
3. Jim Thome, $14,166,667 (2003-08)
4. Gary Sheffield, $14,000,000 (2008-09)
. . . Adam Dunn, $14,000,000 (2011-14)
6. David Ortiz, $13,000,000 (2007-10) 
. . . David Ortiz, $13,000,000 (2013-14)
8. David Ortiz, $12,500,000 (2011)
. . . Victor Martinez, $12,500,000 (2011-14)

 

 

Take the money and run Kendry's.  

[eaterfan]

In the history of the game, according to Cot's.

 

 

Take the money and run Kendry's.  

 

Unless they have Molina chasing him they'll catch him...

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

This will certainly be addressed by the players in the next CBA. It definitely costs borderline star players some money.

 

On the Angels side, it definitely makes sense to offer a qualifying offer to Vargas.

If he accepts then yeah, it's somewhat more expensive than he probably deserves on an annual basis, but the team avoids the large counterparty risk associated with long term contracts (WIN). If he goes elsewhere the team gets a compensation pick (WIN). The added benefit is that forcing opposing suitors to forfeit their 1st round draft pick serves to lower his price, so even if you do sign him to a long term contract his price will likely be lower than by not offering a qualifying offer (WIN).

 

The negative scenarios are to lose Vargas with no compensation or to sign him to a long term contract t the highest possible price. Avoid those scenarios for a change.

Jeff Fletcher (the Angels OC Register beat writer), doesn't think the Angels will give a qualifying offer to Vargas.

[Reaginsnomics]

$14 mil for Kendrys would be pretty good for him.  His numbers in 2013 were pretty much in line with his numbers last year, despite Seattle's reputation for destroying hitters.  That said, I don't think those numbers would be worth $14 mil a year even on a short-term deal.  If he really wants out of Seattle, and into more of a hitter's park to build value, that's a bummer for him.  He didn't exactly choose to go to Seattle.  He hasn't come close to showing his form from 2009 and the beginning of '10, though.  For what he is as a player, $14 million is solid.  I don't think he gets an AAV over $10 mil anywhere else, much less $14.  

 

Best thing for him if he's dead-set on getting a long-term deal would be to take a cheaper deal with a team that plays in a hitter's park.  Losing that 1st round pick (unless it's a team with a protected pick) would probably knock his price down quite a bit.

 

As for Vargas, I think the Angels have to make him the offer.  He was quietly a big part of their staff this season.  He had a shaky first month, and that fluke injury, but other than that he was solid.  He's just the sort of guy the Angels need in that 3 spot.  Look at what the 4 and 5 spots have been this year.  They essentially gave away Ervin Santana, and they got nothing back for Haren.  Either of those guys would have been a lot better than what the Angels trotted out there every 4th and 5th day this year.  Like Morales, the qualifying offer probably lowers his price if he wants a multi-year deal.  The only problem would be if a team with a protected pick grabs him, but I don't see one of those teams picking up Vargas for that kind of money.  He's more of a complimentary piece than a rotation centerpiece.  Doesn't really do as much for a team in rebuilding mode.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Reaginsnomics

[CaliAngel]

Take the $14 Mill in 2014 and work your ass off to increase your value for a longer term contract in 2015 and beyond.

[NrM]

14 mil is a great deal for kendrys

[HaloMagic]

Wouldn't Morales likely have still cost a draft pick under the old CBA? Seattle would have just offered him arbitration and either he'd take it and get less than $14mm or decline it and cost his new team a draft pick. How is this different? The old team doesn't get the pick under this system (I think they should) but the effect on the new team is the same.

[Jeff M]

Poor Kendrys. And to think of the life he could've had if he had not made the mistake of coming to *play* baseball in America. Life must really be rough.