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SLC vs. Arkansas: The Shoemaker Effect


Docwaukee

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For you numbers geeks out there, there are several interesting articles in regards to the effect of air density on drag force and magnus force as it relates to spin and velocity of pitches and how the baseball travels once it's hit. 

 

http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Denver.html

http://www.sie.arizona.edu/sysengr/publishedPapers/AirDensity.pdf

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.87.1553&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Matt had terrific numbers at Arkansas and his first year at SLC was pretty bad with his second year being much better. 

 

Although probably not applicable to every pitcher that performs well at Ark while getting hammered at SLC, Matt's situation is an interesting one in that he relies on movement and location more than velocity.  After seeing him last night, he repertoire seems very dependent on whether he has his splitter working and at SLC, the altitude makes that less likely. 

 

As the conditions in Anaheim are more of a mimic to Ark than SLC, it could prove interesting to see if he and other players going forward can provide value to a level more than anticipated by their AAA performances. 

 

Schugel is another example. 

 

I don't think we should dismiss guys that struggle after making the jump to AAA in that the altitude at SLC can have a substantial effect on pitch movement. 

 

Anyway, just some food for thought. 

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Another thing to consider is whether the wind is blowing in a particular direction. Wrigley field, in particular, has this issue and if the wind is blowing out towards the outfield it has been shown that pitchers will experience a slight increase in home runs overall. Stadiums with domes can reduce wind interference and can even control temperatures inside the dome if they wanted too.

 

This is why it is important for pitchers to mix pitch types and speeds. Keep 'em guessing.

 

Also this is why the Rockies go after pitchers with high groundball rates (thus the reason they originally wanted Tyler Chatwood in the Iannetta deal) to help mitigate fly balls.

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Another thing to consider is his H/9 ratio when he was with Arkansas.  It is way out of whack with the rest of his minor league numbers.  While his strikeout and walk ratios are good, when he isn't fooling hitters, he is very hittable.  He is the kind of guy I can see having a successful stint in the majors, but if he does, it will be short.  

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Another thing to consider is his H/9 ratio when he was with Arkansas.  It is way out of whack with the rest of his minor league numbers.  While his strikeout and walk ratios are good, when he isn't fooling hitters, he is very hittable.  He is the kind of guy I can see having a successful stint in the majors, but if he does, it will be short.  

although they are out of whack for his stints at Rancho, that is also an extreme hitter park in an extreme hitters league. 

his earlier stints at CR were on par with his Ark numbers and his splits at Rancho are at least decent.  Basically, he's all over the map. 

 

I am not saying he's potentially Jered Weaver when people were labeling him Jerome Williams, because like Jerome, some nights his splitter isn't going to split just like when Jerome's sinker doesn't sink.  Those nights, he's gonna get tagged pretty good regardless of where he's pitching.  I just think it's a mistake to not even consider the guy as the 6th man or maybe more based on his numbers at SLC when in fact his stuff is possibly better than was shown there because of the altitude.  It's well known that splitters don't drop as much in those sort of conditions. 

 

While it's never a good idea to start making assumptions and decisions based on one start, it would be hard for me to believe that what he did last night is a complete and total aberration.  His fastball moved and that splitter was tight.  Seeing a guy over and over could change that, but those were still better pitches than I expected them to be, and it could be a lesson for the org in general not to give up on a guy that has struggled in high altitude when his main weapon is movement. 

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Why do we have to throw labels on these guys like Joe Blanton or Jerome Williams? Each and every pitcher is completely unique with a different repertoire, delivery, deception and velo/spin on the ball.

I think Matt has a great chance of being the next Shoemaker. And who knows how well or bad that translates in the big leagues.

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