Reasons Why Callaspo, NOT Aybar Should Bat Second

[Second Base]

I remember last year everyone was predicting Howie would have a monster year because he was coming off a career year in 2011, signed a big contract and would have Albert Pujols behind him.  Needless to say, the man floundered.  Power numbers plummeted and he grounded into more double plays than anyone not named Miguel Cabrera.  

 

This year it's cool to predict a hitter to have a breakout year sandwiched between Trout and Pujols.  Hunter did it last year and this year pitchers will be stuck having to deal with the formidable Hamilton and Trumbo after Pujols.  So theoretically, whoever hits second is gig to see lots of fastballs.

 

However, the REALITY is hitters need to hit no matter their spot in the lineup.  Admittedly, some are better served for certain spots in the order than others, but hitting between Trout and Pujols will NOT be the difference between a successful hitter and an unsuccessful hitter.  

 

You need to take a previously successful hitter, and place him in the 2-spot and don't put any unrealistic expectations on him.  Just expect the player to hit as well as he would in any other spot in the lineup.  Callaspo wasn't that successful as a hitter last season, can't bunt and isn't fast.  Clearly, putting him in the 2-hole will NOT remedy this.  

 

Aybar was a successful hitter last year, and Bourjos was successful in 2011.  Both can run, both can bunt.  For me, the only difference between the two (because I believe Bourjos will surpass his 2011 numbers) is Aybar makes more contact but Bourjos would give Trout greater opportunity to steal. 

 

Take your pick between those two. 

[Stradling]

I'd like to give Kendrick one more shot and I know I'm in the minority. If a pitcher throws him those slow, in the dirt breaking balls Trout steals second. Howie uses the whole field, can drive a fast ball from gap to gap. He had one bad year where he grounded into a ton of double plays. My guess is that it is a fluke thing. Most guys who hit into double plays are big slow guys like Pujols, two years ago and Miggy this last year, not guys with average to slightly above average speed. Double plays are not like strike outs they don't happen year after year after year.

[xboom28x]

You need to take a previously successful hitter, and place him in the 2-spot and don't put any unrealistic expectations on him.  Just expect the player to hit as well as he would in any other spot in the lineup.  

 

Wouldn't this be Kendrick? The 2 spot this season would be a new dynamic with Trout leading off and Pujols hopefully not struggling to start the season. Kendrick's opportunity last season in the 2 spot didn't include either.

[Second Base]

It would if he hadn't already proven on multiple occasions that he's not going to succeed in that spot of the lineup.  Watching him erase Trout from getting on base and lead the league in GIDP would be a maddening experience.  Kendrick would quite literally be the 4th or 5th best option for that spot.  

 

Some guys just perform differently according to their spot in the lineup in a manner that isn't statical variation.  Kendrick can only hit in the bottom of the lineup.  Callaspo, I'd expect more of them same, lots of walks but a .260 average and "meh" OBP in the 2-spot won't be tremendously beneficial.  

 

With Aybar, I think he'll limit Trout's ability to steal, but he'll also hit .285, advance the runners and maybe swipe a few bases.  Bourjos, I'd expect .270ish with some pop, decent SB but maddening strikeouts.  But I still think he's the best option given he gives Trout the opportunity to steal, can advance runners and can steal bases himself. 

[xboom28x]

It would if he hadn't already proven on multiple occasions that he's not going to succeed in that spot of the lineup.  Watching him erase Trout from getting on base and lead the league in GIDP would be a maddening experience.  Kendrick would quite literally be the 4th or 5th best option for that spot.  

 

Some guys just perform differently according to their spot in the lineup in a manner that isn't statical variation.  Kendrick can only hit in the bottom of the lineup.  Callaspo, I'd expect more of them same, lots of walks but a .260 average and "meh" OBP in the 2-spot won't be tremendously beneficial.  

 

With Aybar, I think he'll limit Trout's ability to steal, but he'll also hit .285, advance the runners and maybe swipe a few bases.  Bourjos, I'd expect .270ish with some pop, decent SB but maddening strikeouts.  But I still think he's the best option given he gives Trout the opportunity to steal, can advance runners and can steal bases himself. 

 

Kendrick hasn't hit 2nd with Trout leading off yet. I think he should get that chance. Completely different dynamic than having Aybar or Izturis leading off which is who he hit behind last season.

[gotbeer]

I'd like to give Kendrick one more shot and I know I'm in the minority. If a pitcher throws him those slow, in the dirt breaking balls Trout steals second. Howie uses the whole field, can drive a fast ball from gap to gap. He had one bad year where he grounded into a ton of double plays. My guess is that it is a fluke thing. Most guys who hit into double plays are big slow guys like Pujols, two years ago and Miggy this last year, not guys with average to slightly above average speed. Double plays are not like strike outs they don't happen year after year after year.

 

 

Remember when Hunter was Mr. Double Play?  Hard to believe that was 2 years ago.  

[xboom28x]

Look up Kendrick's numbers in the 2 spot in 2011.

 

That is without Trout AND Pujols.

[jshep]

So far in this thread it's been mentioned numerous times that a guy hitting between Trout and Pujols will "see more fastballs" as though it's a fact. Is there any research to support this? If I'm a pitcher and I have Trout on first, or even if he's not I'm trying to get the guy out at the plate. If Howie Kendrick is up there why would I throw him a fastball when I know he's a good fastball hitter? Why am I pitching him any differently than if I have Aybar hitting behind him?

 

I don't know what research has been done on this( I suspect that there's more myth than truth to the idea), but it really wasn't especially accurate for Torii's huge year last year.

 

Fangraphs Pitch Type through Baseball Info Solutions:

61.4% Fastballs in 2012, 1% more than he saw in 2011.

4.4% Cutters in 2012, 1.3% less than he saw in 2011.

 

They also have him seeing more sliders than saw in any any except 2005, but still only 2.5% more than 2011. Not necessarily significant, but I found it interesting when I went to look up this fastball stuff.

 

Pitchf/x Pitch Type:

34% 4-Seam Fastballs in 2012, 4.3% less than 2011

14.7% 2-Seam Fastballs in 2012, 2.9% more than 2011

5.5% Cutters in 2012, down 0.5% from 2011

 

And Pitchf/x also has him seeing 2% more sliders last year for whatever it's worth(and I'm the first to admit, probably not much).

 

Certainly not the difference there that would make me think Howie is going to breakout because he'll get a bunch of fastballs.

[xboom28x]

                     G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS  

 Batting 2nd   43 178 29 49 8 4 10 27 13 42 5 2 .275 .338 .534 .872

 

This was Howie's stats from 2011. Please stop saying that he can't hit in the 2 spot.

[Second Base]

What were his stats in 2012?  Kendrick SHOULDN'T hit 2nd. 

[Docwaukee]

I'm gonna pull out everyone's favorite stat in regards to Torii in the two spot.  He had about 2/3rds of his PA in the two spot and had a BABIP of .426. 

 

Was his success there really because of Trout and Pujols on either side of him?  Did Trout distract the pitcher by being on base? 

 

Those fastball numbers don't take into account the fact that he didn't hit 2nd all year.  probably a small variance but who knows. 

 

It seems that Torii's numbers in the two spot are somewhat flukey and that whoever hits there this year likely won't have as big of an advantage as we may think.  It may not have an affect at all.  So, going by career numbers, speed, k/bb ratio, # pitches seen etc, I still think Callaspo has an advantage, but I would be fine seeing howie get a shot.  I just don't like Aybar there because of his lack of discipline.  BTW, Howie averaged the same number of P/PA as callaspo last year.  Aybar was half a pitch lower per AB and one of the lowest in the leage. 

[Lifetime]

What were his stats in 2012?  Kendrick SHOULDN'T hit 2nd. 

even moreso, by your reasoning, shouldn't Bourjos

[Stradling]

This is an awesome thread.  ScottyA, you are a stat guy, so you know that double plays are very arbitrary and don't continue year to year with players, unless that player is big and slow.  If a guy strikes out a ton, that goes from year to year, but double plays just don't.  I'm not saying he is the best option in the league, I am saying he might be the best option for this team, with this line up.  I just like the idea of him having some productive outs mixed in with his gap power.  The idea of Trout leading off the game with a single, or a walk, stealing second and Kendrick doing what he does a ton, which is hitting the ball to the right side which would advance Trout.  If he puts up his 2011 numbers in 2013 we will all forget about how bad his 2012, well except for AO, he never forgets ANYTHING. 

[xboom28x]

What were his stats in 2012? Kendrick SHOULDN'T hit 2nd.

What were Pujols' stats in 2012? He should not bat 3rd

[YouthofToday]

Eaterfan, why are letting an absence of evidence destroy a good narrative? The BBWAA demand to know why you insult many of its members by actually asking for evidence before making an argument.

[Second Base]

Oh I dunno about that.  .285, 50 doubles, 30 HR, looks like a good middle of the order hitter to me.  

[Bashbrothers]

I don't know what research has been done on this( I suspect that there's more myth than truth to the idea), but it really wasn't especially accurate for Torii's huge year last year.

 

Fangraphs Pitch Type through Baseball Info Solutions:

61.4% Fastballs in 2012, 1% more than he saw in 2011.

4.4% Cutters in 2012, 1.3% less than he saw in 2011.

 

They also have him seeing more sliders than saw in any any except 2005, but still only 2.5% more than 2011. Not necessarily significant, but I found it interesting when I went to look up this fastball stuff.

 

Pitchf/x Pitch Type:

34% 4-Seam Fastballs in 2012, 4.3% less than 2011

14.7% 2-Seam Fastballs in 2012, 2.9% more than 2011

5.5% Cutters in 2012, down 0.5% from 2011

 

And Pitchf/x also has him seeing 2% more sliders last year for whatever it's worth(and I'm the first to admit, probably not much).

 

Certainly not the difference there that would make me think Howie is going to breakout because he'll get a bunch of fastballs.

 

 

You are absolutely right, because there has been other research done on this and there is in fact no difference in pitch location, type, or speed.  The pitcher pitches to get the batter at the plate out. He doesn't change his approach.

[Lifetime]

Which is weird in light of Langston just commenting on how Howie hitting ahead of Pujols would likely see more pitches in the zone. Ah but what does he know about how pitchers approach situations.

[Bashbrothers]

Which is weird in light of Langston just commenting on how Howie hitting ahead of Pujols would likely see more pitches in the zone. Ah but what does he know about how pitchers approach situations.

 

It doesn't matter what he says because there is no evidence and this is very measurable.   There is no varaiation between not having protection, having protection, or a guy on first or not. 

 

One obvious example is Miguel Cabera who's stats stayed almost exactly the same after getting Prince behind him and the way the pitchers approached him also did not change at all.

[Lifetime]

LOL OK.

[jshep]

Which is weird in light of Langston just commenting on how Howie hitting ahead of Pujols would likely see more pitches in the zone. Ah but what does he know about how pitchers approach situations.

 

That was Salmon, not Langston.

 

And baseball players believe a lot of things, not all of them are true.

[Lifetime]

OK

[Bashbrothers]

It's very disconcerting in an argument to post facts and evidence for a certain position to have someone post "LOL OK" as if that helps their side.  This is something that would be very easy to prove if you have facts for it.  Everything we see can be measured.  The fact that pitch location and pitch type have a standard deviation of 0 should be pretty telling.  These aren't hypothetical, this is what actually happened.  Pitchers literally pitched Cabera the same exact way despite having Prince Fielder.

 

Lifetime, if you think this position is true than prove it or at least try to refute the numbers. 

[Lifetime]

Provide facts proving your assertion that pitchers never change their approach to a hitter with the threat of a basher following them.

And Cabrera is an unlikely type of hitter that would get an approach adjustment no matter who is batting behind him.

[Bashbrothers]

Provide facts proving your assertion that pitchers never change their approach to a hitter with the threat of a basher following them.

And Cabrera is an unlikely type of hitter that would get an approach adjustment no matter who is batting behind him.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1042

 

There is literally no evidence for line up protection.  You won't be able to find any wtih a decent sample size.