Caught Looking -- (July 29th - August 4th)

[AngelsWin.com]

By Grant Larsen, AngelsWin.com Baseball Columnist - 

A Tale of Happenings From Around the League

Welcome to my first edition of what Caught Looking is going to look like moving forward. I hope youenjoy it. If there are any suggestions I would welcome and appreciate somefeedback and if there is anyone looking for an opinion on a player or a tradelet me know and I will try to incorporate it the following week. For now,enjoy….

Hitter of theWeek:

Just recently I was laughing at all those owners who thoughtJustin Upton’s exceptional start was a sign of things to come. Then he cooledoff to the tune of 4 total home runs between May, June, and July. However, overthe last week he batted .379 with 3 doubles, 3 home runs, and 9 RBI. If you’rehoping for me to substantiate your desire to believe that this is himrebounding, I can’t do it. Two of the 3 home runs came in one game along with 5of the RBI. He swings and misses far too much and it has increased this year, hisbatting average is down, and his value in the stolen base department seems tobe depleted compared to previous seasons. If it were me that owned him, I wouldbe hoping for a couple more good games and then I would try to sell. But that’sjust me. His consistency issues would be too hard for me to manage in acompetitive fantasy league.

Pitcher of theWeek:

Hands down and no doubt the best pitcher in fantasy baseballlast week was David Price. He managed two starts and 16.1 innings with onecomplete game, and gave up only two runs while walking zero with 13 strikeouts.He has been flat out amazing and nearly unhittable. Looking beyond the lastweek he has 4 complete games in his last 6 starts. Since coming off the DL inearly July he has lowered his ERA from 5.24, after a rough start, to 3.57. Thiswould have been a unique opportunity to make a favorable trade offer for himwhile his stock was at the lowest point we will ever see it. His velocity wasdown, he seemed hittable, and he was struggling to strand runners. His velocityis rising, he’s walked one batter in his last 7 starts, and he’s strandingnearly every batter he allows on. Now, if you don’t have him and you want him,my guess is, that owner isn’t listening.

Pickup of theWeek:

This is a tough week for some of you who are losing playersfor what will likely be the rest of the season. So your goal is to hopefullyfind a replacement for the holes in your lineup. If you have Nelson Cruz youmust feel crushed. He has been producing at epic levels for him and all thosehome runs are going to be hard to replace. In short, without a trade you can’t.There is one player that should be coming off the DL soon and was struggling abit before hand so he might be available: Josh Willingham. Remember, hehit 35 home runs just last year so if you can live with his low batting average(but high OBP) he might be worth a chance.

For those of you losing Everth Cabrera, replacing hisstolen bases will be difficult. My first choice would be Brad Miller to replace him, but it's likely he's already been picked up. Instead, Houston called up one of their manyprospects, Jonathan Villar, just recently. He had 30+ stolen bases each of thelast three years in the minors. He does have his flaws though: batting averageand strikeouts. He has struck out in 33.9% of his at bats since his call up buthe does have the patience to take a walk and getting on base is half the battlefor stolen bases. He has shown a little bit of pop in the minors but it hasn’ttranslated in his first 56 at bats. Stolen bases have not been a problemwhatsoever; he has 6 already with 9 runs. He might be serviceable and fill the need.

Jhonny Peralta is the other big name likely being suspended.He has been one of the best short stops offensively this year with his .305 battingaverage paired with 11 HR and 54 RBI. If you can deal with taking a hit in battingaverage, Brian Dozier might be a nice replacement. He has pop in his batreflected by the 9 HR’s and 21 doubles he has produced so far this year. Healso has 8 stolen bases, which would be an added bonus over Peralta.It surely isn’t an ideal replacement by a top 5 short stop is tough to replace. Of course, this is contingent on a player like Nick Franklin not being available or not being eligible at SS.

Drop of the Week:

This is probably old news, but if you haven’t done soalready it’s certainly time to cut ties with Josh Johnson. He may be a pickupof the week later but for now, dump him. Most of us are making a push for theplayoffs and he is going to do more bad than good based on his season to thispoint. His stuff is just not good enough at the moment to get him out oftrouble. His career LOB% is 74%, yet, this year he is stranding at only 60.9%.His fastball velocity is down quite a bit from previous years and much lowerthan his career average. His fastball has yielded 9 home runs in 182 at batscompared to 8 in 321 at bats last year. Things just aren’t right for him rightnow. I’m hoping, for his sake, that his tendinitis is the cause of his troublesand is fixable. An ERA of 6.603 and a whip of 1.67 should not merit a rosterspot on any fantasy team, especially those that are competing.

Prospect of theWeek:

Most the time I want to utilize this section to speak aboutplayers in the minor leagues that are making an impact or those that may be ontheir way up. However, because I know my audience, I want to use it to showcasean Angel that has just received a call-up to play right field after Pujols wentdown. Kole Calhoun possesses many tools that us fantasy players desire in our everyday players. He has always been praised for his on base skills, his patienceat the plate, and his power and speed are a great combination. Calhoun hasposted double-digit home runs and stolen bases each of the last 3 years in theminors. What I love about (some) players that don’t come up until theirmid-20’s is the patience at the plate and their pitch recognition. This year attriple A he had as many walks as he did strikeouts. To me that’s a sign that a player has nothing left to prove at that level and he has figured out how to wait for his pitches.What impresses me most, however, is that he skipped double A but didn’t skip a beat. In ashort stint in the majors with erratic at bats last year he struggled and I think any player would. Yet, this year his triple slash line is .333/.360/.583 in 30 at bats. Iknow it’s a short sample size but if he’s still available in a dynasty league,and that would be a travesty, get him NOW! If you are desperate for anoutfielder in a redraft league, still take a peek.

Fun Stat of theWeek:

3.83 runs per game. That is the number of runs the almightyNew York Yankees have scored per game to this point in the season. To put itinto perspective the Yankees have scored less than 4 runs a game over thecourse of a season only two other times in the last 40 years; they also havethe worst team batting average in the last 40 years amongst Yankee teams. To make thislook even worse, or better if you root for any other team in the league, theyhave scored less than 5 runs a game only three other times in the last 21 years(and each of those were just a touch under 5). For those of you thatexperienced great joy by reading this, you’re welcome.

My Take on theLeague Happenings:

I’ll be the first to say I thoroughly enjoy the weeksleading up to the trading deadline. It comes and then it passes, trades happen, and teams get “better” for the final two months of the season as they make a pushfor the playoffs. Then I look at some of the trades and think to myself “whatin the he** were they thinking”? Matt Garza is a great pitcher and I think hemakes any team better but stripping away a few higher end prospects for arental is insane. I get that he had a great track record in the AL and had beenon fire but does that make him worth Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and CJ Edwards? Idon’t think so but that’s just me.

Garza has gone 1-1 in three starts with an ERA of 2.85,which is nice and probably about what Texas had hoped for. That being said, heallowed 7 runs in those three starts after allowing only 6 runs total in hissix starts leading up to the trade deadline. He’s already experiencing aregression. Those six starts were somewhat deceptive anyway. Four of thosestarts came against the Mets, Astros, Brewers, and White Sox (each of which arelight-hitting to put it mildly).

Meanwhile, the Red Sox traded for Jake Peavy. Peavy wasaccompanied by a contract that extended through next year at least. The moneyis somewhat significant and it surely played a role but that was actuallyattractive to the Sox (having a player beyond two months). It cost themlight-hitting Jose Iglesias and three prospects in lower minor league levels.Peavy has had only one start but it was a gem against Arizona where he gave up tworuns in seven innings with 7 strikeouts. Really, he has been great this yearwith the exception of 3 starts where he gave up 6 runs in each of them. He hasnine quality starts in 14 tries.

Is Matt Garza that much better than Peavy? Or did theRangers overpay for him? The Red Sox gave up their 9^th rankedprospect (per Baseball America), while the Rangers gave up their 2^ndranked and 5^th ranked preseason prospects. I understand that Garzais battle tested but he is a rental! Two months for those kinds ofprospects.  I just don’t understand it.

I realize that Matt Garza is pitching at an elite level upto this point this year but remember that is a small sample size and he waspitching in a much less hitter friendly ballpark than the place he is now. Justlook at the following charts for more proof. Both pitchers have beenhurt at times over the last two years so I averaged the numbers over 200 inningsseasons to make comparisons easier.

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[Chuck]

Good stuff, Grant! Keep em coming. 

[ettin]

For those of you looking to pick up saves and/or holds pick up Danny Farquhar of the Mariners. His ERA looks hideous but all of his peripherals are screaming awesome closer and he just picked up a save last night over the struggling Wilhelmsen.

[Bruce Nye]

Those of you looking for a 3B/SS, take a look at the Yankees Alex Rodriguez.  He's an "appealing" pick-up because he has major league experience

[Chuck]

Those of you looking for a 3B/SS, take a look at the Yankees Alex Rodriguez.  He's an "appealing" pick-up because he has major league experience

 

Ha, just saw someone pick him up in my Dynasty League. 

[EDinTUSTIN]

Those of you looking for a 3B/SS, take a look at the Yankees Alex Rodriguez.  He's an "appealing" pick-up because he has major league experience

Fortunately, the Angels also value personal integrity and honesty (Madson and his agent aside), otherwise he'd be on JD's radar. He is old, past his prime, expensive as hell, and was once a superstar. Attributes that are also valued by our FO.