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If Josh Hamilton is worth $125M then what's Trout worth?


dimitrig

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This is ridiculous.

 

Trout making uber millions right now would be a terrible precedent for baseball.

 

The game is bigger than one person or one team.

 

If he does his time and keeps playing the way he plays, he's going to make plenty.  

 

Grow up, children.  

 

And if he gets injured and never does?

 

Pay the guys based on production!

 

Hamilton makes 50 times more! For emphasis: 50 times more!

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Love that site - nice find. It proves that Obama isn't really a socialist given that Hamilton's income tax would have been almost twice as high under Reagan.

 

Anyhow, if we want to go by WAR and be a bit technical about it, let's look at numbers:

Hamilton's 2013 fWAR: 0.6

1 WAR = approx $4.5M salary

 

Now let's say that Hamilton continues as is and finishes around 1 fWAR for the year. That means that while he should have been paid $4.5M, he was paid 3.8 x as much at $17M. Or we could say that Hamilton is being paid $17M per WAR.

 

Now let's look at Trout:

2013 fWAR: 6.3

 

Let's say he finishes the year at 10 WAR, which makes him 10x more valuable. If we multiple that by Hamilton's fWAR salary rate for 2013, Trout would get paid $170M...for 2013 alone. If we do that for Hamilton's entire contract, we get $1.25 billion.

 

Now of course there are so many erroneous assumptions here - obviously that Hamilton isn't worth $17M this year, or $125M over five years, but also that they'll both continue to play as they are. My guess is that Hamilton ends this year with a WAR around 1.5, and he improves next year and beyond so that he ends up averaging 2-3 WA per year, or 10-15 total. That's still being overpaid by about two, but there you have it.

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The first mistake is claiming Josh Hamilton is "worth" $125M.

Exactly. How do you all not understand that baseball contracts almost always pay players for past results. If you choose to not over pay a big name free agent then you choose to never sign another big name free agent. You can probably count on one hand the number of times in the last 20 years where a big name free agent lived up to their contract. So we can either all bitch about players under performing or we can bitch about our lack of wanting to compete because we never sign the big name.

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