{Fangraphs} Ervin Santana Changes the Trade Market

[Angel Oracle]

I guess they need to take fertility pills.

Grienke had his one amazing year in KC. Now he is a grossly over paid pitcher that is no better than Wilson.

That was exactly why rental trades usually hurt you in the long run.

[Lifetime]

All of which I agree with. I also don't necessarily think he turned a career corner and could just as easily have a 4.50 ERA next year as a 3.50 ERA. But the point is, for whatever reason he's optimizing his abilities in KC, and the Angels should look at why this is and that, at the least, the coaching staff has something to do with it.

 

I'm not one to place sole blame on any lone party, but I think we need to look at the whole picture - which includes the coaching staff.

The point is, he's done this before, with the Angels. There's no reason to believe that now, with KC he will suddenly become the consistent pitcher we all hoped he would be year in and year out. It's too early to conclude that somehow KC has done something different and Santana has finally turned that corner. And GB is probably right, the pressure to succeed is less in KC and that may be good for a headcase like Santana. 

[Mudville]

I'd recommend putting down that crackpipe that led to the Blanton signing.

 

The Angels FO is a mess. The only thing they're looking at is a $130M+ payroll and another missed playoffs birth.

 

I recommend you check your word choice.

[Tyler]

I got it the first time..

[nate]

Teams have a an exclusive window to offer deals, but I thought they can't offer anymore deals if they offer arbitration.

 

Teams do get an exclusive negotiation window.  When it is over, it used to be that they had the choice to offer the player arbitration, which essentially meant that they would get a one year deal taking into account what they made the previous season as well as what their current value was.

 

Now they just have to make a qualifying offer, last season it was 13.3 million over one year.  In both cases if the player declined the offer and signed with another team you got their draft pick.  Efforts to re-sign the player were not taken into account in draft pick compensation, unless the player re-signed.

[tdawg87]

I hate Ervin Santana. Having him and CJ in the rotation is just too much rage for me to handle.

[gotbeer]

Teams have a an exclusive window to offer deals, but I thought they can't offer anymore deals if they offer arbitration.

 

I believe that was under the old CBA.  You had so much time to sign them, if you didn't sign them, then you couldn't sign them till after May.  The new CBA got rid of that.

[Bashbrothers]

This article makes me feel slightly nauseous. Sullivan thinks the Royals could get at least as much as the Garza trade.

 

So what bothers me is what is wrong with the Angels that Santana couldn't find his best self? Is it Butcher? Scioscia? "Change of scenery" and going from a medium to low-pressure situation probably helps, but there's more to it. Santana is having his best season since his career year in 2008, certainly as good or better than 2011.

 

I'm hoping that the Angels FO is looking at Santana and asking, "What did we do wrong? What didn't we do?"

 

Royals have the best defense in baseball.  Angels have the worst.  Santana would have posted similar results with the Angels as he did last year.

 

Edit: Not the worst, but close to it.

[EE_]

Since 2008, Santana has had the best slider in MLB while also having the worst fastball. (Fangraphs Pitch Values: Fastball -76.9 , Slider +67.9).

This season he's throwing his fastball at a career low rate of 50.9% while throwing his slider at near career high rate 38.1% (38.2% in 2011). Just shocking that he would see improvement by throwing his best pitch more often instead of grooving those awful straight 4 seam fastballs. He's also added a 2-seam fastball this year which has likely improved the effectiveness of the 4 seamer.

 

Have you ever heard Butcher say anything intelligent or insightful? I haven't. I used to listen closely to Black, Lachemann and Coleman because they almost always said something really smart. From Butcher we get simple explanations that could be recited by any fan while including prickish denials like "I know how good I am" and "I'll sleep like a baby". I wouldn't care how prickish he was if he was effective. He's not.

 

The next young pitcher to flourish under Butcher will be the first. It's possible that in 7 years there just hasn't been any young talent for him to work with. It's also possible that he's not a very good teacher and should be replaced. Tampa had no problem allowing him to leave to a lateral position with another team while also requiring no compensation.

[shellback]

Since 2008, Santana has had the best slider in MLB while also having the worst fastball. (Fangraphs Pitch Values: Fastball -76.9 , Slider +67.9).

This season he's throwing his fastball at a career low rate of 50.9% while throwing his slider at near career high rate 38.1% (38.2% in 2011). Just shocking that he would see improvement by throwing his best pitch more often instead of grooving those awful straight 4 seam fastballs. He's also added a 2-seam fastball this year which has likely improved the effectiveness of the 4 seamer.

 

Have you ever heard Butcher say anything intelligent or insightful? I haven't. I used to listen closely to Black, Lachemann and Coleman because they almost always said something really smart. From Butcher we get simple explanations that could be recited by any fan while including prickish denials like "I know how good I am" and "I'll sleep like a baby". I wouldn't care how prickish he was if he was effective. He's not.

 

The next young pitcher to flourish under Butcher will be the first. It's possible that in 7 years there just hasn't been any young talent for him to work with. It's also possible that he's not a very good teacher and should be replaced. Tampa had no problem allowing him to leave to a lateral position with another team while also requiring no compensation.

this. santanna, kazmir, rodney and on and on and on.

obvious to the most casual observer.

[Lifetime]

Santana Kazmir and Rodney? 

[Mark68]

Santana was up and down with the Angels.  Hard to blame his poor performance or the turnaround on the Angels.

I blame it on the calendar.

[gotbeer]

I blame it on the calendar.

 

Damn Mayans.  We turned to crap once the world ended.

[Mark68]

Damn Mayans.  We turned to crap once the world ended.

Maybe we now have the true meaning of the Mayan Apocalypse.

[JAHV76]

It funny to read his since last yer many people wanted Santana gone because of all the home runs he allowed

[Mark68]

Um we got Trout with the Teixiera pick

Technically, yes. However, if we didn't get the supp pick from Teixeira, we still would have drafted Trout.

 

So, really, we got Grichuk for the Tex supp.

[Mark68]

It funny to read his since last yer many people wanted Santana gone because of all the home runs he allowed

I wanted him gone, and I still don't mind that he is. A guy with his stuff should have learned to harness it consistently by now. This odd-year/even-year dichotomy shows that he does not have the right frame of mind to be a consistent force on the mound. Whichever team signs him this offseason will discover that in 2014. If he gets a 3-year contract, that team will get 2 bad years out of 3.

[Lifetime]

Well reality is....  we got Trout for the Teixiera compensation. 

[Mark68]

Well reality is....  we got Trout for the Teixiera compensation. 

Do you think that Grichuk would have been the first round pick by the Angels without the Tex supp pick? If not, then Tex signing with the Yankees got us Grichuk.

 

We were drafting Trout, Tex or no Tex.

[Lifetime]

It doesn't matter. It didn't happen that way. The compensation pick was in fact used for Trout. What could have or would have taken place didn't. What did take place is we used the pick for Trout that's the fscts. 

[Agalloch]

I was one of the few that wanted to keep Santana really bad! I figured at the time he'd be insurance for Greinke at the very worst and if we had re-signed Greinke at the time we could trade him but most wanted him gone. I'm sure we'd all love to have a rotation of Weaver/Wilson/Santana/Vargas/Hanson right now and I predicted he was gonna have a good year. I'll admit I was wrong about Haren and apparently the FO was right but still, I thought a gamble on one of them would be a good idea at the time and I preferred Santana. Hopefully this is sign to them that they need to do a better job coaching and evaluating their players.

[YouthofToday]

Do you think that Grichuk would have been the first round pick by the Angels without the Tex supp pick? If not, then Tex signing with the Yankees got us Grichuk.

We were drafting Trout, Tex or no Tex.

Thank you for stating the obvious to anybody who knows the history of where Trout was on the Angela draft board.

[papawealey]

Butchie just couldn't get the best out of the kid. Turn the page, just another fly tipping his cap in the ointment.

[Docwaukee]

2009-2012

fWAR

WPA

 

Blanton:

2.0, 1.7, 0.6, 2.2 total 6.5

0.58, -1.01, -0.59, -1.80 total -2.82

 

Santana:

1.1, 1.9, 2.6, -1.0 total 4.6

-0.67, 1.49, 0.15, -2.17 total -1.20

 

Depending on what metrics you use, they were actually pretty close.  JD thought he was being economical to bring in a pitcher of similar value that had done so in hitters parks while getting rid of one that cost more money and had put up his numbers primarily in a pitchers park.

 

Granted I think the moves were independent of one another as they should have been. 

Santana was not worth the 13mil he was gonna be paid so it made sense to move him.  Not a horrible move if you bring in a capable replacement.  If that had been done, even a decent #4 starter and the difference wouldn't be that great even with Santana having an aberration year.  Maybe one win.

 

Independent of the letting Santana go is the fact that Joe Blanton sucks balls. 

 

I see what the FO was looking at on paper, but you just have to watch Blanton pitch a few times to realize that he's pretty awful. 

 

It's the Blanton part that is making this seem like a bad idea, but independent of that, moving on from Santana was a good idea

 

Also, to somehow implicate the coaching is a tough proposition considering that Erv had both good and bad years with the same coaches around. 

[OregonLAA]

Well reality is.... we got Trout for the Teixiera compensation.

Lifetime can't be serious. There is just no way this is how he is as a human being