The Official MLB 2024 Amateur Draft Lottery Thread

[Chuck]

Here's hoping the Angels have some luck on their side tomorrow. 

Draft Lottery: Odds, order, how to watch, more

It’s become a highly anticipated mainstay of the offseason: the MLB Draft Lottery.

This is the third year that a lottery during the Winter Meetings has been used to determine the top of the Draft order, with this year’s drawing taking place in Dallas on Tuesday, Dec. 10 at 5:30 p.m. ET. It will be broadcast live on MLB Network and streamed on MLB.com.

All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 16 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2024 winning percentage in parentheses.

22.45 percent -- Rockies (.377)
22.45 -- Marlins (.383)
17.96 -- Angels (.389)
10.20 -- Nationals (.438)
7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457)
5.31 -- Pirates (.469)
3.67 -- Reds (.475)
2.45 -- Rangers (.481)
1.90 -- Giants (.494)
1.50 -- Rays (.494)
1.22 -- Red Sox (.500)
1.09 -- Twins (.506)
0.82 -- Cardinals (.512)
0.68 -- Cubs (.512)
0.53 -- Mariners (.525)
0.27 -- D-backs (.549)
0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)
0.0 -- A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick)

As a team that received a lottery pick in the 2024 Draft and is a “payor club” -- a team that gives rather than receives revenue sharing dollars -- the White Sox are not eligible for this year’s lottery. The A’s are a “payee club,” but landed lottery picks in 2023 and '24, and payees cannot receive a lottery pick three years in a row. They can pick no earlier than 10th and 11th in the 2025 Draft as a result.

Last year, the Cleveland Guardians won the lottery despite having just 2.0 percent odds of doing so and selected Travis Bazzana out of Oregon State. In the first lottery, the Pirates were tied for having the highest odds of landing the top pick (16.5 percent) and that turned into Paul Skenes.

The order of the postseason teams are determined by when they get eliminated and their revenue-sharing status. Those 12 teams will choose in the following order: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, World Series winner. Within each of those groups, clubs will be sorted by revenue-sharing status, with payee clubs selecting before non-payee clubs. If two or more clubs have identical winning percentages in the immediately preceding championship season, the selection order of those clubs will be determined by winning percentage in the next prior championship season, with any remaining ties resolved by the tied clubs’ respective championship season winning percentages in each preceding year, until the tie is broken.

Here's the Draft order for the 12 postseason teams:

19. Orioles (.562)
20. Brewers (.574)
21. Astros (.547)
22. Braves (.549)
23. Royals (.531)
24. Tigers (.531)
25. Padres (.574)
26. Phillies (.586)
27. Guardians (.571)
28. Mets (.549)
29. Yankees (.580)
30. Dodgers (.605)

After the first round, the lottery results won't affect picks Nos. 1-18, which will be in reverse order of winning percentage.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-draft-lottery-odds

[Inside Pitch]

I hope the Angels can get someone good with the 11th pick.

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I hope the Angels can get someone good with the 11th pick.

[Second Base]

Hoping I’m wrong, but I see a drop off after Holliday and LaViolette. Hopefully the Angels get lucky and land inside the top two. 

Truth be tolls, I’m skeptical these kinds of things are random. The Cavs just happened to pick first overall in 2003 when LeBron entered the draft, and the Knicks just happen to get Carmelo from Syracuse. 
 

Probably just the conspiracy theorist in me thinking it’ll be the Nats getting the first pick. Young, exciting up and coming team gets the younger Holliday where he’ll play in close proximity to his brother in the Beltway Series.

[Chuck]

11 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hoping I’m wrong, but I see a drop off after Holliday and LaViolette. Hopefully the Angels get lucky and land inside the top two

That said, Mike Trout wasn't viewed as a top guy either so it really all depends on the scouting and finding these gems like Trouty! 

I still love what Bane said about what his guys were telling him about Trout in our Bane Connection editions back in the day. 

[Chuck]

 

[failos]

16 hours ago, Chuck said:

0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)

Lol

[tdawg87]

12 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hoping I’m wrong, but I see a drop off after Holliday and LaViolette. Hopefully the Angels get lucky and land inside the top two. 

Truth be tolls, I’m skeptical these kinds of things are random. The Cavs just happened to pick first overall in 2003 when LeBron entered the draft, and the Knicks just happen to get Carmelo from Syracuse. 
 

Probably just the conspiracy theorist in me thinking it’ll be the Nats getting the first pick. Young, exciting up and coming team gets the younger Holliday where he’ll play in close proximity to his brother in the Beltway Series.

I don't think you're too far off. If the top pick goes to another team in the 12-18 range then I'm definitely calling bs. The odds that happens 3 years in a row? Fuck off with that shit. 

[Taylor]

White Sox ownership better watch out for dudes in hoodies.

[Angel Oracle]

Just don’t sign a FA who turned down QO.   Need that 4th pick in the second round.

[Angelsjunky]

18 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I hope the Angels can get someone good with the 11th pick.

Worst they can do is 9th.

Which means they're drafting 9th.

[Angelsjunky]

15 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hoping I’m wrong, but I see a drop off after Holliday and LaViolette.

That's my sense too, though from only a cursory investigation.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Worst they can do is 9th.

Which means they're drafting 9th.

Worse they can do is 9th which is why I hope they can find a good player at 11.  Cause Angels!

[Angelsfan1984]

I have nervously eaten an entire bag of david sunflower seeds. I can no longer feel the tip of my tongue and both sides of cheeks are raw. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if they get a top 3 pick im going to make a tier list about sunflower seed flavors.

[ScottM]

30 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I have nervously eaten an entire bag of david sunflower seeds. I can no longer feel the tip of my tongue and both sides of cheeks are raw. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if they get a top 3 pick im going to make a tier list about sunflower seed flavors.

dill pickle

[Angelsfan1984]

7 minutes ago, ScottM said:

dill pickle

[jsnpritchett]

David Haynes looks like he's about 12 years old.  Also kinda funny that he's next to Vernon Wells.

[ScottM]

Holliday or LaViolette would really be huge for this org. Fingers crossed for a top 2. 

[Stradling]

This is making me nervous. 

[Stradling]

Top 2

[ScottM]

let's go this is huge 

[ScottM]

2nd.

[Inside Pitch]

Jerry Dipoto has to be sky high right now...

 

[tdawg87]

[Stradling]

This is great.