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I'm not ready to give up...yet


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I know, I wrote about how grim the playoff chances are. But look, despite dropping three straight to the Mariners in Safeco, this is the team that just swept the Tigers and Astros and then took two out of three from both the Cardinals and Red Sox. Yes, splitting with the Cubs was a bit of a bummer, and getting swept by the Mariners left the Angels losing 4 of their last 5 before the break, but this has been a much better team of late - with some great comebacks and walk-off wins.

 

Some great moments here.

 

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But tdawg, I've written this thread multiple times because the team does NOT suck. As I've pointed out, since their 15-27 start they've been 29-22, which is a 92-win pace. I think that represents the Angels' true talent level - a 90ish win team that struggled mightily out of the gate but has played well overall for the last 50+ games. I don't expect that to change - I think they'll continue winning around 55%+ of their games. The problem, of course, is that this is probably too little too late. If they had played that well since the beginning they'd be right in the mix for the wildcard and division.

 

People get frustrated. I get it. But let's not ONLY look at the fact that they got swept by the Mariners but that they won two series in a row vs. two of the best teams in baseball, not long after sweeping the team with the best pitching staff in baseball...for the second time this year.

 

The Angels are a good team, maybe even a very good one. I agree that they're not a great one and that the chances they make the playoffs are unlikely. I'm not asking anyone to be optimistic - I'm not. But I haven't given up - I think there is still a chance worth caring about, even if that chance is only about 10%.

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I wish our odds were 10% to make the playoffs.  According to baseball prospectus we have a 3.9% chance to make the playoffs with a 2.5% chance of making the divisional round.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

Coolstandings gives us a little better chance at 6.6% to make the playoffs:

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2013&i=1

 

However sports club stats gives us a 0.7% chance to make the playoffs:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html

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being a realist, i hope for the best. but as jim bowden (ex gm wash, cincy) says: "the angels just need to cut to the chase and get some pitching".

that pitching will,imo, be a long time coming. i was pleasantly surprized at the angels draft this year.

unfortunately, these kids will take some years to get to the big club and if our manager has anything to do with it they will probably be stuck in the minors forever.

i would love to see this team as competative for a playoff spot, but it aint gonna happen for a while. a couple of years at least.

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"The Angels are a good team, maybe even a very good one."

 

 

What?  There is optimism and just plain crazy.

 

Look at the actual, I don't know, win-loss record? 29-22 over the last 51 games. That's a .569 winning percentage which translates to 92-70 over the course of a full year. So for the last 51 games - which is hardly a small sample size - the Angels have been a 92-win team. 92 wins is "very good"; I only wrote "good" in order to allow for some regression and because of the terrible start. But this isn't the same team that compiled a 15-27 record through their first 42 games.

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Look at the actual, I don't know, win-loss record? 29-22 over the last 51 games. That's a .569 winning percentage which translates to 92-70 over the course of a full year. So for the last 51 games - which is hardly a small sample size - the Angels have been a 92-win team. 92 wins is "very good"; I only wrote "good" in order to allow for some regression and because of the terrible start. But this isn't the same team that compiled a 15-27 record through their first 42 games.

They sure looked like that team the last 4 of 5.

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But tdawg, I've written this thread multiple times because the team does NOT suck. As I've pointed out, since their 15-27 start they've been 29-22, which is a 92-win pace. I think that represents the Angels' true talent level - a 90ish win team that struggled mightily out of the gate but has played well overall for the last 50+ games. I don't expect that to change - I think they'll continue winning around 55%+ of their games. The problem, of course, is that this is probably too little too late. If they had played that well since the beginning they'd be right in the mix for the wildcard and division.

 

People get frustrated. I get it. But let's not ONLY look at the fact that they got swept by the Mariners but that they won two series in a row vs. two of the best teams in baseball, not long after sweeping the team with the best pitching staff in baseball...for the second time this year.

 

The Angels are a good team, maybe even a very good one. I agree that they're not a great one and that the chances they make the playoffs are unlikely. I'm not asking anyone to be optimistic - I'm not. But I haven't given up - I think there is still a chance worth caring about, even if that chance is only about 10%.

 

If we play the A's and Rangers tough in the 13 games we have with them over the next three weeks, I'll reconsider my opinion that the team has no chance at the postseason. Those games are crucial. We do badly there, and it's pretty much over.

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Look at the actual, I don't know, win-loss record? 29-22 over the last 51 games. That's a .569 winning percentage which translates to 92-70 over the course of a full year. So for the last 51 games - which is hardly a small sample size - the Angels have been a 92-win team. 92 wins is "very good"; I only wrote "good" in order to allow for some regression and because of the terrible start. But this isn't the same team that compiled a 15-27 record through their first 42 games.

I look at their overall win-loss record and I see a team that is mediocre at best. The bad streaks have outweighed the good this year.

As much as we all try to forget, April counts just as much as any other month, and this same team played like crap. We can look at all the silver linings we want, like "this team is better than their record indicates" but the fact remains that they can't maintain that 29-22 pace over a full season. Texas and Oakland can.

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Every team has hot streaks and cold streaks. If we took out the A's worst stretch or the Rangers worst stretch they would be playing at a 100 win pace. It's not fair to just take out our worst stretch and say we're a 92 win team. This team isn't that great and doesn't have a bright future because it's so old, the farm is so bad and the team already has a high payroll and lots of money committed.

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I will say one thing. When Vargas is healthy, the 1-2-3 is solid. But in addition to Pujols and Hamilton, the downfall will be having meh for the 4th and 5th spots.

JeDi better do something about that over the next couple of years that doesn't further mortgage the farm.

 

Eh.  I'm still not completely sold on Vargas.  He's pretty mediocre-to-bad on the road. 

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If we play the A's and Rangers tough in the 13 games we have with them over the next three weeks, I'll reconsider my opinion that the team has no chance at the postseason. Those games are crucial. We do badly there, and it's pretty much over.

 

I completely agree. That 13 game gauntlet will decide whether the Angels have a legit shot at the postseason. Dipoto's actually kind of lucky that its happening when it does, because it could determine whether he buys or sells or stands pat at the deadline. Should be interesting.

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Every team has hot streaks and cold streaks. If we took out the A's worst stretch or the Rangers worst stretch they would be playing at a 100 win pace. It's not fair to just take out our worst stretch and say we're a 92 win team. This team isn't that great and doesn't have a bright future because it's so old, the farm is so bad and the team already has a high payroll and lots of money committed.

Exactly, because 67 lousy games (23-44 record) trumps 26 good games (21-5) any day.

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