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Playoff Chances


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Aren't good, and here's why.

 

The Angels are 44-49 with 69 games left. The big question is how many games might they need to finish with to earn a playoff spot, whether a wildcard or the division. Let's take a look.

 

Right now the Angels are 11 games out of 1st in the AL West and 9 games out of a wildcard spot, with six teams in front of them and one half a game behind.

 

We obviously don't know who will win the wildcard spots but I think we can safely say the two year-end leaders will have roughly a similar winning percentage as they do now - .573 and .568. Let's translate that to year-end win totals:

 

.574 (93) - Definite (almost)

.568 (92) - Probable

.562 (91) - Solid Chance

.556 (90) - Maybe

.549 (89) - Probably Not, but close

.543 (88) - Nope, but nice try, though!

.537 (87) - Not a chance, but worth paying attention to but not quite

 

So, again at 44-49 currently and 69 games left, this is how the Angels would have to play to reach those marks:

 

Definite: 49-20 (.710, 115-win pace)

Probable: 48-21 (.696, 113-win pace)

Solid Chance: 47-22 (.681, 110-win pace)

Maybe: 46-23 (.667, 108-win pace)

Probably Not: 45-24 (.652, 106-win pace)

Nope: 44-25 (.638, 103-win pace)

Not a chance: 43-26 (.623, 101-win pace)

 

I don't mean to be a wet blanket because I'm certainly not completely giving up hope, but if you're a betting man those aren't good odds. To even have a decent chance ("Maybe") the Angels need to play at a 108-game pace for the rest of the year - that's winning two out of every three games.

 

Of course its possible - and there is precedent, even on the Angels, for such a strong finish. In 2006 the Angels were 35-44 through June and went 54-29 (.651, a 106-win pace) for the rest of year. Of course they fell short of the playoffs, but they played pretty damn good.

 

And of course there's 2002. On July 15 the Angels were 53-38 and then proceeded to go 46-25 the rest of the way (.648, 105-win pace), winning 21 of their last 30 games (.700).

 

So we're not quite at the "So You're Saying There's a Chance!" place. Yet. But we're getting close. Any series that the Angels don't take 2-of-3 from sets them back further and further away. 2-of-3 keeps them on pace, while sweeps or 3-of-4 actually takes them a step forward.

 

At this point I'm just hoping that in September there are reasons to watch Angels baseball other than Mike Trout.

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To me, I look at the second place wild card team.  

 

That would be Texas at 54-41.  So they have 67 games left.  Even if they tumble.  They will have at least a .500 winning percentage.  So about 34-33.  That means 88 games would be the worst case scenario IMO.  And I don't think 88 does it, but I'm thinking worse case.

 

Angels are 44-49.  69 games left.  To get to 88 games, they have to go 44-25, a 0.637 winning percentage.  Angels have done this before.  But I'm not hopefully with what i've seen so far.  

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At least we won't have to wait for very long after the break to see if things go from "slim chance" to "zero chance" with all but 3 games for the remainder of the month being against the A's and Rangers.  Then right into Jays and more Rangers early August.  

 

If they don't do something pretty magical over those couple weeks, then pretty much all hope is lost unless you want to believe they have a 2007 Rockies run in them.

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I still stand by my prediction of low/mid 70s wins, maybe squeezing into the top 10 draft picks.

We have NOTHING beyond Weaver, Wilson, and Vargas.

Pujols and Hamilton seem to never be able to put any good stretch together.

We still don't have quite enough pen depth against the better teams over the span of a week.

We have a killer schedule after the ASB through mid-August. 

 

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This team played very poorly in ST and it has carried through the entire season. They really need to evaluate their players and create a better plan for '14

Yep, this is the same thing I said earlier in June.    This season has been a cluster flub from the beginning of ST.

I hope those new scouts that Dipoto hired in the off-season are a lot better than the old ones.

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Chances are slim, but it can be done. They need a lot of confidence and, as I said in another thread, the Pujols/Hamilton/Trumbo group to have a good second half. The starters also have to be shored up. I think we can win with Blanton, but not if he's pitching along with Williams. I don't know how they can fix it and even if it's feasible, but I think that's the only way for us to win barring a resurgence of Pujols and Hamilton's MVP years.

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To me, I look at the second place wild card team.  

 

That would be Texas at 54-41.  So they have 67 games left.  Even if they tumble.  They will have at least a .500 winning percentage.  So about 34-33.  That means 88 games would be the worst case scenario IMO.  And I don't think 88 does it, but I'm thinking worse case.

 

Angels are 44-49.  69 games left.  To get to 88 games, they have to go 44-25, a 0.637 winning percentage.  Angels have done this before.  But I'm not hopefully with what i've seen so far.  

 

The problem with this, as I said in the OP, is that you're assuming none of the other teams - like Baltimore - out-play a mediocre run by the Rangers. My point was that it is less important who is in the wildcard spot right now and more important what their record is, because that's likely what it will take to get a spot. I think, though, that the lowest the wildcard will possible be is around .550, which is 89 wins.

 

This team played very poorly in ST and it has carried through the entire season. They really need to evaluate their players and create a better plan for '14

 

This isn't actually true. After starting 15-27 the Angels have gone 29-22 since  that's a .569 winning percentage, a 92-win pace, or almost exactly Texas' record for the entire year. Not great but certainly very good and not "very poorly."

 

To reframe what you said, the Angels played very poorly in ST and it carried through the first quarter of the season - 42 games of .357 ball. Since then the Angels have been erratic but overall very good.

 

Unfortunately its probably a case of "too little, too late." By playing at a 58-win pace for the first quarter of the season, and even if they continue playing at a 90-95 win pace for the rest of the year, which is wildcard-worthy, it isn't enough to make up for the difference so they'll likely end with 82-85 wins. After their terrible 15-27 start, in order to into serious contention (say, 90 wins) they would have had to play .625 from then on, which is a 101-win pace. So they've been about nine wins short of the pace they needed.

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We already know their chances. Those games will just further cement things

 

We have 10 of the first 13 games after the break against Oakland and Texas.

 

We'll know exactly what our chances are after that. 

 

Yeh. Let's just say Dipoto is still optimistic for some reason, after we get our asses handed to us by Oakland, Dipoto will have 72 hours to sell.  Good enough for me.

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Yeh. Let's just say Dipoto is still optimistic for some reason, after we get our asses handed to us by Oakland, Dipoto will have 72 hours to sell.  Good enough for me.

 

And it's not like Dipoto hasn't ALREADY talked trades with other teams already. He just hasn't pulled the trigger yet as the rest of July plays out.

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SELL, SELL, SELL!!!

 

Good thing is, we could conceiveably trade two players who we could then re-sign after the season (Downs and Vargas). 

Just let them know that they are in the 2014 plans, but that you want to help them have a chance to reach the 2013 post-season by trading them in late July (assuming Vargas is activated by 10 days from now).   That might give the Halos an edge in signing them.

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