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Greatness Interrupted: The Decline (or not?) of Mike Trout


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There are no real historical comps for Mike Trout. The most similar player to him, by a good margin, was Mickey Mantle, who combined a similar batting profile (adjusted for a 60-year gap) and speed, though Mantle was allegedly a better defender. But not only did Mantle play in a very different era (he most certainly wouldn't have hit .365 in this era, and would have had much higher K rates, but probably stolen more bases), but Mantle had a recurring leg injury due to a childhood illness, and had a notorious penchant for drinking. Mantle remained a great hitter until the end of his career -- his later decline was partially due to a strong pitcher's era - but his last truly dominant season was in 1964 at age 32. His 30s overall suffered from chronic injuries, general decline, and the rise of the pitchers.

So we can compare Mantle as a similar player of comparable dominance, but we can't look for him as a comp for Trout's aging patterns.

Somewhat similar players include Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, and Albert Pujols, but all have significant differences.

Another factor making a Trout comparison difficult is his playing time in 2020-21 at age 28-29. Very few players lose so much time in the heart of their careers; Trout played a bit over half a season over those two years, due to injury and the pandemic.

Trout's un-interrupted career was 2011-19, or through his age 27 season. Up to that point, he had more WAR than any player through age 27 with 71.4. This was in 1199 games played, which was 22nd all-time. Through 2022 (age 30), his games played was only up to 1407, out of the top 100 all-time through age 30 (105th), leading to his WAR total of 82.2 falling to 6th, 15.7 behind Ty Cobb. 

Greatness interrupted, in other words.

Now I have a theory that players who rack up tons of game early on tend to decline early. Not in all cases, but as a general rule. I've started to research this once or twice, but always left it aside due to the amount of work required. But this theory led me to see a silver lining in Trout's lost time, because it could mean that his peak would be extended.

2023 tells a different story, however. Where Trout's 176 wRC+ last year was just above his career average, he's now at 133 through 57 games played - which is no longer a small sample size. There are two possibilities: He's just having a bad year, or he's amidst a rather sharp decline, bordering on collapse (or, more likely, somewhere in-between).

But his numbers are rather strange. His ISO (Isolated Power) is down to .227, which is the lowest of his career, and his 10.6 BB% is second lowest after his rookie season. Power and plate discipline are usually the last skills to go. Generally, players first lose speed and defense, then contact skills, and only then power and discipline. If anything, many players gain a bit of power and discipline as they enter their 30s, but Trout is declining in all facets of the game - except, strangely enough, speed. According to Statcast, his sprint speed is 29.4 ft/s, which is typical for him. Statcast began in 2015, which saw a high for him of 29.7, but it has been 28.9 to 29.4 every year since. Meaning, he might have lost a hair early on after 2015, but has been in the top 5% of the league (plus or minus a point) ever since

This may be good news. It may mean that he's not actually in physical decline, just struggling. Meaning, it could be mostly mental - that is, how he's approaching the game, rather than a diminishing of his skills.

Looking at his Statcast batting numbers, nothing immediately stands out. His Exit Velocity is 92.1, which is above his average of 91.4; his Launch Angle is 19.0, which is lower than three of the last four years, but above his average of 18.3. His Sweet Spot% is 37.7, the same as last year and just a hair below normal.

Statcast does believe he's been a bit unlucky, with his expected triple-slash being .277/.366/.530; while this is better than what he's actually produced (.264/.358/.491), it is still quite a bit below his normal output.

The biggest outlier seems to be his BB% of 10.6, which is about the same as last year (10.8). But here is where we see a split. Trout, like the Angels as a whole, slumped in mid to late May of 2022, as the Angels lost 13 games in a row. Before then, he was off to one of his best starts:

Through May 11: 117 PA, .337/.462/.726, 229 wRC+, 17.1 BB%

5/12 - end of season: 382 PA, .268/.340/.603, 160 wRC+, 8.9 BB%

Notice the BB% difference. He's picked it up a bit this year, but not by much. Meaning, since the losing streak last year, Trout has been a far less disciplined hitter.

Now there is are some anomalies I see in looking deeper into Statcast. First of all, he's hit 29.1% of balls to straight away, which is well below his average of 35.8. I have no idea why that might be.

Another anomaly: he's really struggling with the sinker this year - the worst against any pitch type in any year going back to 2017.

Another big outlier, and what might be at the heart of the matter: His Zone Swing% is 69.7, well above his norm of 58.9, and over 8% higher than any season going back to 2015, leading to a career high overall Swing% of 45.0. This, I think, is the mostly telling stat so far. He's swinging at more pitches, which means he's taking less and thus walking less. 

Coupled with that, his whiff rate in 2021-23 have all been much higher than in previous years: 27.5, 30.2, and 29.2, respectively, compared to an average of 22.2. 

For whatever reason, Trout is far less patient this year, and really going back to May of 2022. Exactly why that is, is anyone's guess. It may be a bad habit he started when he and the team were struggling last year, which he never broke. Although the whiff rate going back to 2021 implies that whatever ails him, goes back a bit further. 

None of this tells us what to expect going forward. My biggest concern is that there is a player who went through something similar at the same age: Albert Pujols. Albert saw all of his triple-slash numbers decline every year from 2009 to 2013:

2009 (29): .327/.443/.658, 180 wRC+, 16.4 BB%

2010 (30): .312/.414/.596, 164 wRC+, 14.7 BB%

2011 (31): .299/.366/.541, 147 wRC+, 9.4 BB% 

2012 (32): .285/.343/.516, 133 wRC+, 7.8 BB%

2013 (33): .258/.330/.437, 112 wRC+, 9.0 BB%

That's not just a steady decline, but a steep one. Albert stabilized for a few years through 2016 (age 36), then dropped to below replacement level for the rest of his career, except that weird final year with St. Louis.

Is Trout going through a similar slide? It is hard to say, because the data is muddied by all the time he's missed. But it is hard not to see the similarities between Pujols and Trout at a similar age, as far as decline trajectory and worsened plate discipline. But it could also be that Trout is just going through a mid-career adjustment. There's no reason why he couldn't have another half decade at an elite level. I would certainly think that a 170 wRC+ hitter doesn't become a 130 wRC+ hitter over night, and that we should at least see him bounce back to the middle range between (e.g. 150+).

Let's hope Trout isn't Albert II, but there's a distinct possibility that he might be. The key, I think, will be to watch that walk rate. Trout's greatness with the bat is largely due to his patience - waiting for that pitch he can drive, even if it means letting some good ones go by. Right now he's not; he's swinging at more pitches than he's ever done, and whiffing more often. If that doesn't change, we could be looking at a rather steep--and Pujolsian--decline over the next few years. I certainly hope not.

The era of year after year of 170 wRC+ and 9 WAR seasons is probably over, but there's no reason to think that Trout can't make the adjustments he needs to make and return to a level close to his best, with maybe a vintage season or two sprinkled in over the next half decade. The key, again, is to, well, stop swinging at so many damn pitches, Mike!

Edited by Angelsjunky
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The idea that Trout has hit his apex already and that a decline has begun seems obvious at this point.

I'm hoping Trout can adjust during his decline to flatten and elongate it as much as possible. 

As mentioned Albert proved to be a stubborn player who refused to adjust and thus plummeted. 

Noah S is trying to re-learn how to pitch without throwing 100 MPH.

IMO Trout can still be elite if he reconciles he won't hit 40 bombs anymore, but needs to turn high or inside fastballs into singles or doubles. 

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35 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

The idea that Trout has hit his apex already and that a decline has begun seems obvious at this point.

I'm hoping Trout can adjust during his decline to flatten and elongate it as much as possible. 

As mentioned Albert proved to be a stubborn player who refused to adjust and thus plummeted. 

Noah S is trying to re-learn how to pitch without throwing 100 MPH.

IMO Trout can still be elite if he reconciles he won't hit 40 bombs anymore, but needs to turn high or inside fastballs into singles or doubles. 

He hit 40 in 119 games last year. He can still hit 40.  He has 13 in 57 games which isn’t far off of a 40 HR pace, one hot streak away. However your larger point is true. He probably adds more value being more selective and hitting more balls through the open space rather than always trying to crush pitches 450.  

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44 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

The idea that Trout has hit his apex already and that a decline has begun seems obvious at this point.

I'm hoping Trout can adjust during his decline to flatten and elongate it as much as possible. 

As mentioned Albert proved to be a stubborn player who refused to adjust and thus plummeted. 

Noah S is trying to re-learn how to pitch without throwing 100 MPH.

IMO Trout can still be elite if he reconciles he won't hit 40 bombs anymore, but needs to turn high or inside fastballs into singles or doubles. 

 

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He hit 40 in 119 games last year. He can still hit 40.  He has 13 in 57 games which isn’t far off of a 40 HR pace, one hot streak away. However your larger point is true. He probably adds more value being more selective and hitting more balls through the open space rather than always trying to crush pitches 450.  

I agree Erstad, with the caveat of what Stradling said. Trout was on pace for 55-60 HR over a full season. This year it is half that. It is weird how much his power has dropped since last year, which implies that it is something that can be remedied. His ISO last year was .347, which was the second highest of his career; this year it is .227, which is the lowest. 

Assuming he does adjust, I think we can still see vintage Trout. But as I said in the OP, the key is that plate discipline. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball as well or just pressing, or developed bad habits during last year's epic slump. 

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10 hours ago, Jason said:

He’s also been playing at the ML level since he was 19. He’s played hard and that has to cause some where are tear in the body. It’s feasible to believe he isn’t 100% healthy either 

That's something I mentioned in the OP, and why I was hoping the missed time the last few seasons would benefit his longevity. As I said, he had played in the 22nd most games through age 27. Now through age 30, he's out of the top 100. So presumably that should help with wear and tear. Plenty of the guys who played in more games at his age have had long and productive careers. 

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12 hours ago, full circle said:

It’s not that simple for Mike.  Those pitches he’s swinging through, those are strikes.  He just can’t hit them.  His swing is long and loopy at this point.  This will end up his worst season by far I predict, and hopefully it spurs change. 

Right. But both are true, and I don't think unrelated.

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36 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He hit 40 in 119 games last year. He can still hit 40.  He has 13 in 57 games which isn’t far off of a 40 HR pace, one hot streak away. However your larger point is true. He probably adds more value being more selective and hitting more balls through the open space rather than always trying to crush pitches 450.  

Yes you said that better than I did. 

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47 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He hit 40 in 119 games last year. He can still hit 40.  He has 13 in 57 games which isn’t far off of a 40 HR pace, one hot streak away. However your larger point is true. He probably adds more value being more selective and hitting more balls through the open space rather than always trying to crush pitches 450.  

This is why I'm worried that the possibility that Trout is going through a Pujolsian decline isn't unfounded - what you wrote above was exactly what people were saying about Pujols in 2012-13.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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17 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think something that is being overlooked here, is that he is likely pressing, and has been for a while because he is feeling the burden to get this team to the playoffs. The man is doing everything he can, and in that I think he's inadvertently become a less effective hitter. 

I mentioned that in the OP in relation to the losing streak last year. His walk rate tanked after (it was 17.1% before, 9.6% since then).

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I mentioned that in the OP in relation to the losing streak last year. His walk rate tanked after (it was 17.1% before, 9.6% since then).

I also think there's a degree in nostalgic bias built into the Mantle-Trout comps. People used to think Mantle was the strongest guy around, an unparalleled athlete in terms of speed and strength. You put him next to Trout, and he's dwarfed. Not only is he 2-3 inches shorter but he did have Trout's bulk. Maybe he was as strong and fast as Trout, but it's unlikely. But in terms of relation to the average player of the time, yes it's comparable. But in terms of strict body composition, it isn't. The truth is, we have no idea how someone of Trout's specific build will age, because it's very hard to find a single player in history with Trout's specific build and ability. 

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Good topic and comments. 

With Mantle, was it a coincidence that he began to decline at the exact same time the Yankees fell into a terrible decline under new corporate ownership? 1965 to his1969 retirement. 

Was his decline a major factor or the diminished/aging roster a reason he tried to over achieve? 

As written here in the first post, I think it was a mix of various factors. Remember too that Mantle was probably the biggest icon in baseball most of his career, and identified in that role. He played hurt often just to help the team. Check out his 1961 bloody leg bandage as he dragged himself into the World Series. 

One of the reasons I like Trout is that he reminds me of Mantle more than anyone else. Both physically and talent wise. Unfortunately he never had the team around him to get the glory and accolades he would deserve. In a way like Ted Williams, possibly the best/smartest hitter ever. But didn't have the post season credentials that his biggest rival, DiMaggio, did. 

But with Trout now, it's still less than half a season, so I would wait to see how it turns out. And at least superficially his production isn't that different than Ohtani currently. 

But lots of good points here. 

 

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2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I also think there's a degree in nostalgic bias built into the Mantle-Trout comps. People used to think Mantle was the strongest guy around, an unparalleled athlete in terms of speed and strength. You put him next to Trout, and he's dwarfed. Not only is he 2-3 inches shorter but he did have Trout's bulk. Maybe he was as strong and fast as Trout, but it's unlikely. But in terms of relation to the average player of the time, yes it's comparable. But in terms of strict body composition, it isn't. The truth is, we have no idea how someone of Trout's specific build will age, because it's very hard to find a single player in history with Trout's specific build and ability. 

Yes, true - though remember some compared him to Rickey Henderson in build, if not stature. 

People were generally smaller in the 50s and 60s, and baseball players didn't bulk as much. Look at Hank Aaron in his prime - 6', 180 lbs according to Fangraphs. That was quite tall back then, probably the equivalent of 6'3" or 6'4." Hank hit 40+ HR eight times, 30+ fifteen times.

The performance similarities, and overall skill set of Mantle and Trout is uncanny.

 

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3 hours ago, Second Base said:

I also think there's a degree in nostalgic bias built into the Mantle-Trout comps. People used to think Mantle was the strongest guy around, an unparalleled athlete in terms of speed and strength. You put him next to Trout, and he's dwarfed. Not only is he 2-3 inches shorter but he did have Trout's bulk. Maybe he was as strong and fast as Trout, but it's unlikely. But in terms of relation to the average player of the time, yes it's comparable. But in terms of strict body composition, it isn't. The truth is, we have no idea how someone of Trout's specific build will age, because it's very hard to find a single player in history with Trout's specific build and ability. 

For being dwarfed by Trout, not having a training regimen, and facing pitchers who didn't throw as hard, Mantle for some reason was able to hit the ball alot farther than players do now.

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8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

This is why I'm worried that the possibility that Trout is going through a Pujolsian decline isn't unfounded - what you wrote above was exactly what people were saying about Pujols in 2012-13.

Albert to me started his decline right when he joined the Angels. He then started to get worse and worse, and the one thing I noticed is that he increasingly looked more and more bulky and top heavy. Big upper body, more and more girth in the abdominal area. Although Mike's speed hasn't diminished this last year, I am starting to see the same thing with Mike. I would love it if he would slim down, sacrifice some home runs to be more the player he was when he was less pull happy, got on base a ton, sprayed hard hit balls all over the place, and looked to make contact or walk and trust the next man up to have the same mindset and come through. Take a page from Tom Brady who through nutrition and fitness extended his career in football far past what we thought was possible. More fitness up top would help with his back and leg issues, for sure.

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3 hours ago, T-angel said:

Albert to me started his decline right when he joined the Angels. He then started to get worse and worse, and the one thing I noticed is that he increasingly looked more and more bulky and top heavy. Big upper body, more and more girth in the abdominal area. Although Mike's speed hasn't diminished this last year, I am starting to see the same thing with Mike. I would love it if he would slim down, sacrifice some home runs to be more the player he was when he was less pull happy, got on base a ton, sprayed hard hit balls all over the place, and looked to make contact or walk and trust the next man up to have the same mindset and come through. Take a page from Tom Brady who through nutrition and fitness extended his career in football far past what we thought was possible. More fitness up top would help with his back and leg issues, for sure.

Pujols actually started to drop in the second half of 2010 - that's why his numbers that year are a bit below 2008-9 (though still amazing). People thought 2011 was just an off year, but it turned out to be his first full year of decline...so the Angels gave him 10/$250M.

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